Jason Wang

Kinda crazy to think that the Brewers are such a well-rounded team that one of their biggest weaknesses was backup shortstop.

need to see this jake woodford toe the slab in milwaukee

Image courtesy of © Rick Scuteri-Imagn Images When Joey Ortiz was acquired from the Orioles in the Corbin Burnes trade, it was more or less assumed that he would inherit shortstop from Willy Adames. He was the No. 63 overall prospect in baseball in 2024, according to MLB Pipeline, and even though he was playing a new position (third base), his rookie year was quite encouraging. His first year after moving back to shortstop was less than ideal. A year-long offensive slump limited him to a 67 wRC+. His defensive contributions (depending on which figure you look at) were just good enough to keep him above replacement-level, but the future of the position isn’t as clear as it once seemed. There’s still time to turn things around. Ortiz is 27 years old, and there’s reason to believe that his performance at the plate last year was the exception, not the rule. Much of his offensive struggles came from a steep decline in plate discipline rather than a holistic degradation of talent. A side-by-side comparison demonstrates that other than his chase rate increasing and walk rate decreasing, most of his numbers remained in line with 2024. 2024 2025 Barrel % 4.6 3.0 LA Sweet Spot % 26.6 27.4 Squared Up % 23.0 23.3 Whiff % 17.1 16.0 K % 20.2 14.6 Chase % 24.7 33.3 BB % 11.0 5.3 Surface-level spring training statistics only matter so much, given their limited sample and the variance of opposing competition, but his 10.9% walk rate thus far is at least trending in the right direction. His power also seems to have returned, with his average exit velocity jumping to 91.9 mph and his 90th-percentile EV making a similar leap to 107.2 mph, both marked improvements on where those metrics were last season. In other words, there’s still hope for Joey Ortiz, but it’s far from a sure thing. The uncertainty of it all is exactly what led a savvy team like the Milwaukee Brewers—who take no unnecessary risks—to go about getting a backup with a chance to become the starter. Although they sent much of their 2025 infield depth to the Red Sox in the Caleb Durbin trade, the front office replenished it by acquiring David Hamilton in that very deal. They'd also scooped up Jett Williams from the Mets in the Freddy Peralta deal. Williams is currently MLB Pipeline's 51st-ranked prospect and carries all the usual characteristics of a player who has made it this far in a 5-foot-7 frame. He’s fast, pulls the ball in the air frequently, and is athletic enough to play in the outfield, or at multiple spots around the infield. Hamilton is the far superior defender—perhaps over Ortiz, as well as Williams. The dynamic Williams spent most of his minor-league season in Double-A last year but also played 34 games in Triple-A, posting a cumulative 136 wRC+ with 17 home runs and 34 stolen bases. His well-rounded offensive profile already seems sufficient for a step up in competition, as he's been excellent in spring training, slashing .375/.500/.625 over his 20 plate appearances. Of course, he’ll also have to maintain his success in Triple-A. His time in spring training was somewhat truncated by a quad injury he sustained at the end of February, and given a larger sample, any current issues (can he make enough contact? Is his plate discipline good enough to handle the best pitching in the world?) would have been clearer. Milwaukee is in no rush to call up Williams, and have already assigned him to minor-league camp. Hamilton is the more significant short-term threat to Ortiz's playing time. He's batting a less impressive .231/.294/.371 this spring, but he brings elite speed (and aggressiveness on the bases) and that excellent glove, so there's a chance he'll force the issue at either short or third base. Williams, meanwhile, will prepare for his time in the big leagues by playing multiple positions, as his long-term home is probably either second base or center field, anyway. In the medium term, Cooper Pratt is the one who might take over shortstop from Ortiz, unless the incumbent shortstop reasserts himself sharp-like. Pratt only had a 107 wRC+ in Double-A last year, but the potential is obvious, and his glove is ahead of his bat. Behind him (and gaining fast) are Jesús Made and Luis Peña. There's a swamp-like fluidity to this group, but from it, the team is almost certain to get something great—but that's not guaranteed to happen this year. It can be tempting to look at this year as a holdover year before the organization’s most promising prospects blossom into full-fledged big leaguers. However, what the team has on the table is far from a group of replacement-level journeymen. While it may not be clear who will receive the most playing time at the role, Milwaukee has no shortage of promising options. View full article

Trevor Megill trade incoming? Might not be until next year (assuming no lockout) since he does hit free agency in 2028 but that would be fall in line with the Brewers' MO.

thank u for ur response prospect jesus

Curious to hear more. Prospects are always super hard to evaluate for me since future value is based on data that isn't as easy for me to find so I kinda just blindly trust and then wait to see what happens in the big leagues. As Spencer pointed out, 107 wRC+ doesn't really jump off the page as a quality for a No. 4 prospect in a stacked system but I just kinda assume the underlying data mentioned is what people are weighing more heavily.

The things I would do to be 6 feet tall and 175 pounds...

TIL what moxie means

Image courtesy of © Dave Kallmann / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images He wasn’t quite as flashy as his 6-foot-7 fellow rookie, but don’t get it twisted: Chad Patrick played a significant role in Milwaukee’s success in 2025. He posted a 3.53 FIP (the best figure of anyone on the Brewers with more than 80 innings pitched) and accumulated 2.6 fWAR, second only to Freddy Peralta on the team’s pitching staff. To those who didn’t get a chance to follow him very closely, this might come as a surprise, since none of his peripherals are particularly impressive. Outside of a 25.2% strikeout rate, his Statcast metrics are pretty average across the board. So, can he continue his success in 2026, or will opposing hitters finally figure him out, necessitating a decrease in workload or leverage? Chad Patrick’s Strengths Patrick’s primary pitch was his cutter, which he threw 41.1% of the time. Unlike the famous cutter of former Milwaukee ace Corbin Burnes, it’s more of a hard slider than a fastball, coming in at an average velocity of just 87.9 mph. As a result, though, it gets significantly more movement than your typical cutter, which allowed him to get a whiff rate of 27.2% on it. It did run into a few barrels here and there, but overall, a hard-hit rate of 39.7% isn’t bad. For context, Drew Rasmussen had the most valuable cutter by Run Value last year, and it had a hard hit rate of 42.3% and a whiff rate of 26.8%. To complement this pitch, Patrick also threw a sinker and a four-seam fastball, which were remarkably similar in both usage (23%) and velocity (94.1 mph). His heater was particularly effective due to its 16.6 inches of induced vertical break and his ability to consistently command it at the top of the zone. His sinker didn’t miss many bats, but it was great at generating soft contact, as is expected. It didn’t stand out compared to other sinkers around the league, but it was an effective tool nonetheless, especially for getting double plays when needed. His trio of fastballs was responsible for most of his production last year. He typically attacked right-handed hitters with sinkers and left-handed hitters with four-seam fastballs, while doling out cutters to everyone. Chad Patrick’s Weaknesses His fastballs are dandy, but his secondary pitches fail to meet the same lofty standard. For the majority of his time in the big leagues, he used his slider against righties and changeups against lefties, but his offspeed stuff was getting battered. He held onto it through the end of the season, but ended up slowly phasing out his slider in favor of a slurve that had encouraging results over a small sample. One of the most challenging aspects of being a starting pitcher is needing to face the entire lineup multiple times. At minimum, a six-inning appearance requires facing everyone in the lineup twice, so the ability to give hitters different looks is necessary for long-term success. This is where Patrick’s lack of a truly effective arsenal of breaking balls really hurts him. When facing hitters for the second time in a game, he holds them to just a .597 OPS. When facing them for the third time, this balloons to an .875 OPS. It’s a significant issue that eventually pushed the team to option him later in the season. If the slurve ends up sticking around for the long haul (and if he’s able to refine his offspeed offerings, in general), he could have a very compelling five-pitch mix. If he enters 2026 still holding onto the stuff that worked in 2025, it may be tough for him to hold down a stable spot in the Brewers’ rotation. What Should Chad Patrick’s Role Be In 2026? In 2024, there was a young hurler by the name of Tobias Myers who posted similarly strong numbers in his rookie campaign, keeping an injury-battered rotation afloat. The next year, he pitched just 50 ⅔ big-league innings, spending the rest of the time in roster purgatory with 12 starts in Triple-A. He was eventually included in the Freddy Peralta trade, the final signal that Milwaukee simply didn’t believe in his ability to sustain the success he found in his freshman season. The possibility that Patrick follows a similar path isn’t out of the question just yet. Milwaukee has an excess of starting pitchers, and most of them are younger than Patrick is, with more upside. Given the return from the Mets and Red Sox trades this offseason, acquiring young starting pitching depth seems to have been the guiding theme for the front office this winter, giving guys like Patrick more competition for a coveted spot in the rotation. For starters (see what I did there?), he probably won’t be in the bullpen. There’s no room there, either, especially since the Brewers already have two long relievers in Aaron Ashby and DL Hall. He’s more than likely going to be a starter, but whether it’s in Milwaukee or in Nashville depends on how he stacks up against his teammates in spring training. With even a slight step forward, he’d be a solid back-of-the-rotation arm, but regression or stagnation could push him far enough down the roster to spend a significant portion of the season in the minor leagues. Thanks to his strong numbers last year, he’s starting (ohp, did it again) with a good reputation, but baseball—like all sports—runs on “what have you done for me lately?” It’s an inquiry that only Patrick can answer, but there’s no doubt that he has the pieces and wherewithal to prove himself at the big-league level. View full article

Figured that Yoho would be higher. I know he didn't do great in his eight big league appearances but his 21 ERA- and 55 FIP- across 43 appearances in Triple-A are still pretty mind-blowing to me.

pat murphy recounting brandon woodruff's start on july 6, 2025

robert manfred would highlight that this is a skill issue. In all seriousness, I think MLB has a irrational hatred of Iowa since it's literally the most blacked out state.

I totally forgot that Vinny Capra was Milwaukee's Opening Day third baseman. Milwaukee having their own proprietary method of evaluating player defense to be more forward-looking is pretty interesting though. Kinda seems like Willy Wonka and the Defensive Factory.

I think they might keep him in a similar role as last year where he was coming out of the bullpen for multiple innings. With a young rotation that could still have some stamina to build, it's a perfect opportunity to use his length without stretching him too far. Over the past few seasons, he has posted a 2.37 ERA over 95 innings in 57 appearances. He's really good the first time through the order but I feel like he lacks the depth of arsenal to be a rotation guy. In 2025, only his sinker and curveball contributed positive run value.

Based on the article by Eno Sarris, it looks like it's actually a step in the right direction. It seems like the wealthier organizations just had more to spend on/invest in analytics tech and MLB wants everyone to be working with the same data. Where the wheat gets separated from the chaff is how each organization ends up using the data. It's similar to things like BaseballReference/Savant/FanGraphs which area easily accessible to everyone but contain troves of information that many often gloss over. So to be fair I think it moves towards parity in the right direction and it still seems like organizations have some optionality on how they get their data, as long as it's approved by MLB.

@Jake McKibbin ramon urias mentioned

The only hope we have is that Rengifo has a higher offensive upside than Durbin that the Brewers hope to unlock, at least until their younger guys come up. Defensively, I believe in the power of friendship I guess idk.

Image courtesy of © Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images In case you somehow missed it, the Brewers sent all of their third base depth to the Red Sox in exchange for a pair of southpaw pitchers and infielder David Hamilton. It raised some eyebrows, but aside from the now-crowded rotation, Milwaukee's bigger roster issue was that they needed a third baseman. Luis Rengifo was the answer to the prayers of Brewers fans, although they must not have dared dream terribly big. He was just one of several names on a long list of underwhelming third base options on this year’s free-agent market, and the lack of demand is unsurprising. In 2025, he posted a 73 wRC+ and 0.0 fWAR over 541 plate appearances. So what is Milwaukee expecting to get out of him? When looking at his broader body of work, it’s clear that he does have some redeeming qualities. He was a respectable contributor to the Angels lineup from 2022 to 2024, accumulating 4.9 fWAR and posting a 111 wRC+ over those three seasons. The key to that success was a low strikeout rate of 16.3% and a whiff rate that was consistently better than average. His 2024 was promising, especially given his outstanding results against four-seam fastballs (.412 BA, .529 SLG). Even in 2025, a year that saw him reach a new nadir for offensive production in a full season, his contact skills remained above average. Although he doesn’t strike out much, he does have a propensity to chase pitches and rarely takes free passes, having a walk rate of just 6.8% over the course of his career. The piece that he clearly lacks in his offensive game is quality of contact. His average exit velocity is consistently in the bottom quartile of qualified hitters, and given his small frame, that's no surprise. Still, we’ve seen players like Isaac Paredes and Brendan Donovan overcome low exit velocities by pulling the ball in the air consistently or squaring up balls at an elite rate. Sadly, Rengifo does neither. Outside of 2022, Rengifo pulls the ball in the air roughly 13% of the time, well below the MLB average of 16.7%. He squares the ball up at an average rate, but is held back by his low bat speed and suboptimal launch angles. Funnily enough, his hitting profile resembles that of Caleb Durbin. Both players are better at making contact than hitting the ball with authority, although based on last year’s numbers alone, Durbin is more extreme in both aspects and pulls the ball in the air far more often. Although his offensive profile has similarities to Durbin, they couldn’t be more different defensively. Durbin was an above-average defender at third last season, posting 5 Defensive Runs Saved; Rengifo managed just -5 DRS. Originally brought up as a second baseman, he fared much better when playing closer to first base. He doesn’t have the strongest or most accurate arm, leading to plenty of poorly thrown balls to first base. He also lacked range at third base, especially when moving laterally toward first base. This limited his defensive production, particularly against right-handed batters. Given all of his flaws, it’s easy to jump to the conclusion that the Brewers clearly downgraded. There simply isn’t a lot on paper to write home about. Furthermore, they’re paying him $3.5 million guaranteed with another $1.5 million in incentives. Even $5 million isn’t much by the standards of this time and this industry, but it’s definitely more than what they would’ve had to give Durbin, so what’s going on? First, it’s important to recognize that Rengifo is mostly a stopgap. The Brewers’ top four prospects (Jesús Made, Luis Peña, Jett Williams, and Cooper Pratt) are all infielders. Williams and Pratt are expected to be called up this season, while Made and Peña will be knocking on the door within a year or two. It would’ve been foolish to commit any more cash or prospect capital to acquiring a more capable third baseman, since Rengifo may not even occupy the top spot on the depth chart for very long. Second, the Brewers could be more excited about what they can do with Rengifo than what he’s already demonstrated at the big-league level. If the Crew can improve Rengifo's swing decisions the same way they improved Andrew Vaughn's last summer, it would make a world of difference, in his profile as much as anyone else's. His career year, 2023, was also the year he walked 9.2% of the time. Third, and most importantly, the Brewers probably don't see as great a difference between Durbin and Rengifo as most of their fans perceive—if any, at all. While what happened last feels most urgent and relevant, that's not always true. Baseball Prospectus's PECOTA system projects Rengifo to bat .255/.313/.394 in 419 plate appearances this year. It projects Durbin to hit .253/.330/.375. If you bump Rengifo up to his 60th-percentile projection (.258/.316/.401) and pull Durbin down to his 40th-percentile one (.250/.327/.369), Rengifo becomes a more valuable player. That implies about a 1-in-4 chance that Rengifo is the better player this year, and another 20% chance that they're virtually a coin toss. Durbin has long-term team control remaining, which makes him more valuable than Rengifo, but because the team has all that organizational infield depth, the ability to retain Durbin for the long haul wasn't worth all that much. Thus, it made sense for them to cash in Durbin and pick up Rengifo instead, given all the controllable, high-upside pitching depth they got in the exchange. They didn't choose Rengifo over Durbin; they chose Rengifo, Kyle Harrison and Shane Drohan over Durbin. Even if it doesn’t work out, Milwaukee has enough infield flexibility to make things work. Pat Murphy has gone on record to say that he doesn’t want to move Joey Ortiz off of shortstop and back to the hot corner, but it could happen if Rengifo, Jett Williams, and Hamilton are unable to do the job. In recent years, the Brewers have made countless trades that were questionable at first, only to end up turning water to wine. They’re one of the most cunning front offices, and any moves they make must have compelling reasons under the hood. Rengifo is not the third baseman of the future, and he may not even be the third baseman of the present, but he gives the team something to work with in spring training. Either way, don’t count him out yet. Milwaukee may still have yet another ace up their sleeve. View full article

it's kinda got a bay

That's what I'm saying!