Jason Wang

Image courtesy of © Denis Poroy-Imagn Images Now that the regular season has concluded, the postseason bracket is finalized. For the first time since 2021, Milwaukee will get to sit out the first round—a hard-earned reward for winning 97 games, more than any other team. Instead of being thrown right back into the fold, their first game won’t be until October 4, when they kick off the Division Series against either the Cubs or the Padres. Both teams are formidable potential opponents. Chicago won 92 games and San Diego won 90 this year, placing them comfortably above the 83-win Reds team that snuck into the postseason at the 11th hour. Both teams have exorbitant payrolls that dwarf Milwaukee’s own meager budget, and both have superstar players who could make or break a best-of-five series. The Padres were one of the most active teams at the trade deadline, even striking a deal with the Brewers to exchange Nestor Cortes for Brandon Lockridge. While that acquisition ultimately failed to have much of an impact on the team, other major acquisitions like Ramón Laureano, Ryan O’Hearn, Freddy Fermin, and (most of all) Mason Miller helped reshape their team in the second half. The addition of Miller, in particular, elevated San Diego’s bullpen to a league of its own. Already stacked with strong arms like Robert Suarez (2.97 ERA), Adrián Morejón (2.08 ERA), and Jeremiah Estrada (35.5% strikeout rate), the Padres had an MLB-leading 3.06 reliever ERA. Unfortunately, Jason Adam, one of their most effective bullpen arms, recently sustained a season-ending rupture of a quadriceps tendon, so they’ll have one fewer weapon to deploy—but it’s still quite a talented array of pitchers. The Padres may have the advantage in the bullpen, but the Brewers undoubtedly have a more intimidating rotation. Even without Brandon Woodruff in the mix, Freddy Peralta and Quinn Priester should be a strong 1-2 punch, followed by a melange of high-variance but very talented secondary bulk guys. Outside of Nick Pivetta (2.87 ERA), no other Padres starters have been great this year. Randy Vásquez has put up solid numbers, but Dylan Cease, Michael King, and the other arms in the rotation still have things to iron out—and Pivetta will only be available starting in Game 2, should they make it, since he's slated to start Game 1 of the Wild Card Series. When it comes to the lineup, the Padres seem like they have more threats than the Brewers at first glance, but a closer look reveals that there’s far more parity than meets the eye. Milwaukee has a better team OPS of .735, but that’s the result of everyone chipping in here and there. Other than Andrew Vaughn (who has just 251 total plate appearances for the team), the best hitter on the team by OPS+ is Christian Yelich (121). Despite the Padres having major household names like Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, and Latin pop sensation Jose Iglesias, the individual numbers are actually pretty even. Here is how the OPS+ figures match up for each team’s top five qualified hitters: Fernando Tatis Jr. 125 121 Christian Yelich Manny Machado 116 120 Brice Turang Jackson Merrill 109 117 Isaac Collins Jake Cronenworth 108 113 Sal Frelick Gavin Sheets 106 111 Jackson Chourio Of course, this leaves out important players who have only been with the team for part of the season, like the aforementioned Vaughn and Laureano, but one can easily see that (beyond name recognition) the Brewers may even have a slightly better lineup. Head-to-head, the Brewers went just 2-4 against the Padres this year, notably losing both series against the team. On the bright side, all but two of the losses were close affairs, which means that they’re likely pretty evenly matched. Besides, the Brewers had little to play for in their matchup during the final week. When it comes to the Cubs, one might be tempted to say that the Brewers have already proved themselves to be a superior team, after easily claiming their third straight division title. Sure, Milwaukee’s double-digit win streaks and second-half surge are accomplishments worth acknowledging, but that doesn’t mean the Cubs should be underestimated. Offensively, Chicago has a slightly better team OPS of .750, but it has more potent individual threat, as well—namely, Michael Busch (148 OPS+) and big offseason pickup Kyle Tucker (144 OPS+). The middle infield duo of Nico Hoerner and Dansby Swanson continues to be one of the best in the business, and despite hitting an offensive wall in August, Pete Crow-Armstrong has begun to turn it around at the plate, while still being one of the best defensive outfielders in the sport. Rotation-wise, it’ll be difficult to compete with the Brewers, especially since Cade Horton’s rib fracture will definitely keep him sidelined until at least the NLCS (should the Cubs get there). Matthew Boyd has been a great starter, while Shota Imanaga and Jameson Taillon have been satisfactory, but these three are looking like a clear step down from what the Brewers will be able to muster. The bullpens are quite close when looking at reliever ERA, but Abner Uribe’s top-notch ERA (1.70) and monstrous workload (74 ⅓ IP) skew the numbers. In reality, guys like Brad Keller (2.07 ERA), Caleb Thielbar (2.64 ERA), Drew Pomeranz (2.17 ERA), and Daniel Palencia (2.91 ERA) have a slight edge over the relievers that Milwaukee will likely deploy, given that Trevor Megill is a bit diminished by injury and Nick Mears appears to be petering out at the end of the year. Although the Brewers ended up with a sizable five-game lead in the division, they were actually 6-7 against their I-94 rivals. Just because Milwaukee got the last laugh in the NL Central doesn’t mean the Cubs couldn’t get retribution in a hypothetical Division Series matchup. Given how these squads match up against the Brewers, I think facing the Padres in the Division Series would give Milwaukee the biggest advantage. The Brewers have a better rotation and lineup, and the Padres have fewer wins and a much lower run differential (+81) than the Cubs (+144). As a fan of baseball, I’d personally love to see a Cubs-Brewers matchup in the playoffs, for the sake of the sport. However, as a fan of the Brewers, watching the Cubs successfully emerge from the Wild Card round could also mean another quick first-round exit for the Crew. View full article

Image courtesy of © Michael McLoone-Imagn Images On April 7, amid a minor starting rotation crisis, the Milwaukee Brewers made another of their patented, seemingly mysterious moves. They acquired Quinn Priester from the Red Sox, in exchange for outfield prospect Yophery Rodriguez and a Competitive Balance Round A draft pick in this summer's MLB Draft. There were mixed reactions to the move. Many of our very own readers considered it an overpay, a sensible opinion at the time. Priester had struggled to find his footing in the big leagues after two seasons, posting a 6.23 ERA over 99 ⅔ innings mostly spent with the Pirates. Meanwhile, Rodriguez was the organization's 11th-ranked prospect in 2024 and had posted a respectable 112 wRC+ with Low-A Carolina at just 18 years old. With a draft pick thrown in to sweeten the pot for Boston, it seemed like Matt Arnold had finally gone one step too far. Fast-forward to today, and the deal has become another galaxy-brain win for Milwaukee’s front office. Rodriguez posted a lackluster 92 wRC+ in his first full season in High A, while Priester has pitched to a 3.25 ERA over 152 ⅓ innings and is the second-most valuable pitcher on the team, behind Cy Young contender Freddy Peralta. None of his Statcast metrics obviously stand out (besides his 95th-percentile ground ball rate), but somehow, the Brewers have molded him into one of the best starting pitchers around. The team’s ticket to the postseason was officially punched all the way back on September 13, but that doesn’t guarantee an easy road ahead of them. The way the playoff bracket is shaping up, they’ll face either the Padres or the Cubs in the Division Series. Those are two teams that have given Milwaukee trouble this year. To make matters worse, the injury bug has returned at the worst possible time. It was recently announced that Brandon Woodruff could be done for the season due to a lat strain, marking the third consecutive year they’d be without him in the playoffs. We're still waiting to hear what Woodruff's shoulder surgeon recommended after a consultation on Tuesday. Although not as impactful, the team also saw Jose Quintana go down with a calf strain, marking an end to his regular season and bringing his postseason eligibility into question. Jacob Misiorowski isn’t currently injured, but has looked like a much shakier version of his former self since returning from the injured list in August, regressing enough for the team to consider a bullpen role for him come October. The Brewers have yet to decide on a postseason rotation, but at this point, it’s probable that Priester will be the No. 2 arm. It’s a lot of pressure for the 25-year-old, but over 28 outings, he has consistently demonstrated the ability to be great. His recent start against the Angels on September 18 saw him strike out 10 players in 5 ⅔ innings, while giving up just three hits. He has also had two other starts with 10 or more strikeouts and zero earned runs. Not only has he been performing well, but he's brought the team up with him. His last outing marked the Brewers’ 19th consecutive victory with him on the mound, an outrageous feat that demonstrates just how much he can help the team win. Hindsight is always 20/20, but it’s almost humbling to reflect on how much he has exceeded expectations. It has become a recent trend for Milwaukee to bring the best out of unassuming talents, like Caleb Durbin, Brice Turang, Tobias Myers, Isaac Collins, Sal Frelick, and a litany of other players who have now been traded away to minimize the franchise’s financial responsibilities. Priester isn’t so much the exception as he is the new rule for the team. He has a tough assignment ahead of him, but with a full regular season under his belt, his résumé now speaks for itself—and it says that no one is ever allowed to doubt the Brewers’ front office ever again. View full article

Image courtesy of © Tim Heitman-Imagn Images Andrew Vaughn has been a fascinating case study of what’s possible when one departs the White Sox organization. After four and a half years of failing to live up to his top prospect expectations, he was traded to Milwaukee and has already reached a career peak. In his first month as a Brewer, he posted a ridiculous 212 wRC+. Clearly, an unsustainable level of performance for him, fans were waiting for his numbers to return to reality. He did that in August, posting a meager 61 wRC+ from August 8th to August 31st. It was enough of a slip to wonder if he was hitting a wall just in time for Rhys Hoskins to come and save the day. After all, he wasn’t expected to be much more than a stopgap at the position, and he had already accomplished far more than expected. If he had never gotten another at-bat for the rest of the season, the move to acquire him would still be seen as a stroke of genius. However, it seems that Vaughn isn’t ready to give up on his big league dreams just yet. He has come surging back in September, comfortably leading all bats in the lineup with a 196 wRC+ for the month. He’s making a very strong case to be not just a part of the postseason roster but one of the core offensive pillars. Unpacking his offensive contributions over this span is even more interesting. His aforementioned slump saw him lose a lot of his pop at the plate, at least on paper. He slugged just .375 over that span, partly due to bad luck and partly due to opposing pitchers becoming wise to his antics. Now, he has become less reliant on the long ball and is more than willing to simply put the ball in play as long as it becomes a hit of some sort. He still hasn’t hit a home run since August 15th, but has instead slashed .444/.475/.583 with five doubles so far this month. Better baseball is rarely a bad thing, but one has to wonder whether this hot streak could do more harm than good. The Brewers still lead all MLB teams in wins, and although they haven’t gotten there quite yet, they have a 99.8% chance of winning the division for the third consecutive year, so it’s not like each sliver of added offense is impactful. Instead, Vaughn’s career renaissance could be getting in the way of Rhys Hoskins getting ramped back up. If you haven’t noticed, Hoskins was reinstated from the injured list on September 9th after being sidelined with a sprained left thumb. It’s completely understandable if you weren’t aware that he had returned, since he honestly hasn’t played much. He has accumulated a whopping four at-bats over four games since returning from the injured list. So while Vaughn has been powering the Brewers’ offense, their second-highest paid player has been riding the pine. When October arrives, does Pat Murphy plan to set the lineup this way? Will Jake Bauers see more playing time than Hoskins? To his credit, Bauers is also having a great month with a 177 wRC+, but will his and/or Vaughn’s recent success be carried over into the postseason? The only real sample we have of Hoskins' post-injury is his rehab assignment, where he posted a respectable .842 over 62 plate appearances with the Sounds, but we don’t have enough information to make an informed conclusion of how he’ll play against big league pitching, especially against teams of a playoff caliber. To me, it seems like he has already taken a backseat. Pat Murphy has a small but tight-knit circle of trust, and once someone falls out of it, it’s difficult for them to claw their way back in (see: Tobias Myers). There’s little more than a week of games left in the regular season, and in many ways, Milwaukee has left few questions unanswered this year. Deciding who will man first base and what the role of Rhys Hoskins is may be the team’s final order of business before the playoffs begin. View full article

brice turang is the greatest brewer of all time

With the Timber Rattlers' season now over, Jesus Made will be making his way to Double-A Biloxi to help with their playoff run starting next week. Of course, this is more than a throwaway move and signals yet another major milestone for the 18-year-old. Made needed just 123 plate appearances with High-A Wisconsin to prove that he was ready for a step up in competition. Since being promoted in August, he has slashed .343/.415/.500 for a wRC+ of 157. Other than his walk rate, nearly every aspect of his offensive profile was an improvement from what he did with Single-A Carolina earlier in the year. While in High-A, his top-notch bat-to-ball were on full display as he had a swinging strike percentage of just 9.2% and a contact rate of 78.9%. His walk rate did dip slightly but was still at a respectable 10.6% while his strikeout rate of 17.9% was also a slight improvement over his performance in Single-A. We likely won't get a very meaningful sample of what he can do in Double-A given the small amount of remaining games but it could give fans a glimpse of what's to come starting next year. He's seemingly ahead of what's already a pretty accelerated schedule with an ETA of 2028 but could be on the doorstep of the big leagues as soon as next year. View full rumor

Image courtesy of © Mark Hoffman/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images After his rookie season in 2023, the scouting report on Turang was simple: good defender, lackluster hitter. In 2024, he improved nearly every aspect of the game (even managing 50 stolen bases), but he remained a below-average hitter and an above-average defender. Thus far, his lack of production with the bat hasn’t been much of a problem. Even with an 86 OPS+ last year, he was still the Brewers’ second-most valuable player by rWAR (4.7), largely due to the lower offensive expectations for middle infielders. He had given fans a glimpse of a potential step forward at the plate by posting a respectable .731 OPS in the first half of last season, but regression after the All-Star break left us all wondering if it was all a dream. This year, we may finally have a definitive answer. With just a few weeks left in the regular season, Turang is having a career year offensively. After nearly 600 plate appearances, he’s at a 125 OPS+ and has hit more home runs this year (17) than in the past two seasons combined. This surge accelerated in August, when he slashed .343/.398/.694 over the month, and it hasn’t slowed down in September. In fact, 11 of his home runs have come in the past month; many of them have been towering shots. His average exit velocity has increased by 4 mph since last year, and his hard-hit rate has increased by almost 20%. For the first time, his quality of contact metrics are better than average. Some are almost in the top quartile of qualified hitters. But by far the most significant improvement has been how he has performed against fastballs. As a rookie, Turang struggled immensely against heaters, slugging just .271 against four-seamers and accumulating a run value of -15. Having issues against the most common pitch in baseball is a recipe for disaster, but he has shown clear signs of progress over the years. Run Value BA SLG wOBA Hard Hit % 2023 -15 .202 .271 .261 34.4% 2024 0 .323 .433 .379 33.1% 2025 5 .317 .525 .410 58.4% Now, given what happened with his rise and fall at the plate in 2024, one might assume that this jump in hard-hit balls is just another one of the sport’s many fleeting hot streaks. However, there’s evidence to suggest that the power has always been there. Ever since he got in the league, he has had rare instances of absolutely smoking pitches when he manages to get his A-swing off. This home run against Bryce Elder had an exit velocity of 104.3 mph and traveled 417 feet. The pop has always been in there somewhere, and he has now found a way to access it with more consistency. Whether that’s a result of additional time in the weight room, a more refined or confident approach, mechanical tweaks, a switch from 2% to whole milk, or a combination of several factors is unclear, but the results speak for themselves. The best part is, while he’s swinging a bigger stick, his glove has still been incredibly impactful, particularly when combined with the Brewers’ infield alignment. With a more complete skillset, Turang could finish the season with more than 6.0 rWAR and even be a down-ballot MVP candidate. Unfortunately, he'll have to perform a miracle (or several) to beat out Shohei Ohtani for the actual award, but all of this progress should have the Brewers rubbing their hands in glee, especially since he’ll be under team control until at least 2030. As the best player on the best team in the league, he could certainly finish in the top five, even if that's still not how most fans think about him nationally. To fans of the other 29 MLB teams, the success of the Brewers is a bit of a mystery. They operate in a smaller market with a meager budget and no superstars, yet they have managed to win more baseball games than any other team this year. The organization’s success has been attributed to the roster’s scrappy nature and ability for any player to step up on any given night, but there are absolutely players who have carried more than their fair share of the burden. While he isn’t known or paid like a superstar, Brice Turang is absolutely playing like one—and could be for the foreseeable future. View full article

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Image courtesy of © Mark Hoffman/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images Milwaukee’s first base situation has had its fair share of ups and downs. After a rough year by Rowdy Tellez in 2023, the Brewers ponied up a heap of cash (by their standards) to pick up Rhys Hoskins on a two-year deal. His tenure as a Brewer has been lukewarm at best, averaging a .739 OPS since joining the team, but his numbers appear even worse when considering his high salary and lack of defensive value. Though still far from his career peak in 2022, Hoskins was playing better this year before being sidelined with a sprained left thumb in early July. That injury led the Crew to promote Andrew Vaughn, who had been acquired in June to hedge against this very situation. Expectations were as low as can be, given that Vaughn had been worth -1.8 rWAR across 48 games with the White Sox, but as usual, the Brewers captured lightning in a bottle. Vaughn posted a whopping 212 wRC+ in his first month with the club. Part of his success was due to some key mechanical adjustments, but deep down, many fans wondered how long the thrill ride would last. It seems we now have our answer. From August 8 onward, Vaughn has regressed to a 61 wRC+ over 97 plate appearances, as big-league pitchers are now privy to what his key weaknesses are. That hasn’t stopped the Brewers from maintaining their comfortable lead in the division, but as the postseason approaches, the team has to make a choice on whom they’ll start at first base. While Vaughn has been on a cold stretch, Hoskins has been tearing it up on his Triple-A rehab assignment, posting a 148 wRC+ in the 10 games he has played so far. More importantly, now that he’s almost back to full health, the pop in his bat seems to have returned as well, as he’s slugging .568 over this span with four doubles and two home runs. In addition to tapping back into his power, he has maintained his elite plate discipline, striking out just 11.4% of the time while walking at a 13.6% clip. In the big leagues this year, he struck out 26.7% of the time. His more recent numbers are obviously against minor-league pitching, but they’re a sign that his strengths have remained intact while his weaknesses are moving in the right direction. But what about Vaughn? Is he still somehow making a case to at least remain on the roster, perhaps even in a new position? The reality is, there was almost certainly going to be a correction in Vaughn’s numbers. After five big-league seasons, we more or less know what we’re getting out of him over a large sample size. In the aforementioned span stretching from August 8 to the present, his average exit velocity and hard-hit rate are down quite a bit, compared to his season average. He’s pulling the ball less frequently, hitting fewer line drives and more warning-track fly balls, and could even be considered unlucky with his .222 BABIP. In many ways, this version of Vaughn is more lore-accurate than the offensive behemoth we saw in July. He’ll continue to take reps at first base for now, especially since the Brewers recently announced that they’re taking it nice and easy with Hoskins and his rehab assignment, but it wouldn’t be surprising if Vaughn slowly cedes playing time over the final weeks of the regular season. Fortunately, there are pros to both outcomes. If Vaughn makes the necessary adjustments to revive his offensive production, then the Brewers will reap the rewards. If he continues his current skid, then the decision around who will get the lion’s share of playing time at his position will be clear as day. View full article

Image courtesy of © Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images After two outstanding win streaks, Milwaukee has finally started to seem fallible. Holding a 4-6 record in their last ten games, it’s clear that despite having a strong roster, it’s far from perfect. Their spot in the playoffs is all but guaranteed this year thanks to their incredible 83-52 record but for the Brewers, success in the regular season is far easier to come by than in the playoffs. So, who are some of the players they can call up to help cover their bases? Honorable Mentions OF Daz Cameron Fans have already gotten a chance to see Cameron don a Brewers uniform this year and the results left quite a bit to be desired. Over a span of 42 plate appearances, Cameron slashed .195/.214/.293 with a 31.0% strikeout rate and a 2.4% walk rate. Given his poor outcomes and the already crowded outfield picture in Milwaukee, he was designated for assignment in early July to make room for Anthony Seigler before returning to Triple-A Nashville. Since rejoining the Sounds, he has been excellent at the plate, posting a 138 wRC+ since July 9th and keeping his strikeout rate to just 23.3% over that span. Unfortunately, while his season OPS of 1.008 for the Sounds is by far the highest of any player with more than 20 plate appearances, the stiff competition on the big league roster hasn’t changed. Proven big league talents like Blake Perkins are already having to settle for bench roles and with a long track record of struggling against major league pitching, the cards are stacked against Cameron, at least for this year. C Jeferson Quero The Brewers’ #4 prospect was originally set to make his debut this year but after a freak injury on Opening Day last season, his rise to the top has been delayed. Fortunately, he rebounded quickly and has returned to being a top talent. While his season wRC+ of 112 in Triple A is good, he’s quickly picking up momentum. In the month of August, he has posted a 163 wRC+ with a slugging percentage of .674, not too shabby for a prospect scouts have labeled as having “a close-to-average bat with decent power.” Although he’s on the right track and is making a great case to make the team’s Opening Day roster next year, calling him up now would come up with other complications. Sure, Danny Jansen has only managed a 68 wRC+ since arriving in Milwaukee but in a very short span, Quero would have to learn the ins and outs of an entirely new pitching staff while also dealing with the broader pains of getting settled in the majors. Despite his lack of offensive production, Jansen is a serviceable backup catcher and would still add more value to the team than Quero would at this point in the season. Potential Call-Ups 2B/3B Raynel Delgado Hardly a household name, Delgado signed a minor league contract with the Brewers in November and has spent the entire season in Triple A. At first glance, his 99 wRC+ at the level is hardly notable but he has been one of the hottest hitters on the team, slashing .336/.394/.507 since July 1st and even hitting for a cycle a few weeks ago. Delgado has spent the majority of his time at second base but has dabbled in playing third base which is a position the Brewers have kept notably fluid. As of late, Anthony Seigler has taken over some of the responsibility of the position off of Caleb Durbin’s shoulders against right-handed pitching. This could open a similar door of opportunity for Delgado who bats left-handed. He has actually performed better against southpaws this season but has also demonstrated a strong ability to hit right-handed pitching in the past. RHP Justin Yeager It has been a big year for Yeager. After putting up strong numbers with Double-A Biloxi, he was promoted to Triple A in mid-July and has continued his strong momentum, posting a 1.20 ERA over 15 innings while holding opposing hitters to a .137 average. His 22.6% strikeout rate and 17.7% walk rate are undoubtedly causes for concern over this span and have resulted in a FIP of 3.86 but the walk rate especially is skewed by one game in which he conceded four free passes. If the Brewers do want to give him a shot and need relievers to fill the bullpen, Yeager could give them just enough of an edge to be meaningful. RHP Craig Yoho If all you’ve ever seen of Craig Yoho is his 7 ⅔ innings of major league relief, you might be wondering why a pitcher with an 8.22 ERA and 7.43 WHIP should even get another look. It’s an understandable concern but his much larger Triple-A sample has instilled hope in his abilities once more. He has pitched to an 0.85 ERA over 42 ⅓ innings with the Sounds and in the 10 ⅓ innings he has pitched since being optioned at the end of July, he has posted a 0.87 ERA with a 34.1% strikeout rate. Milwaukee’s bullpen has already been shaken up in a big way now that Trevor Megill has hit the injured list and a lesser but still important loss to injury has been Grant Anderson being sidelined with right ankle tendonitis. Tobias Myers and Easton McGee have already been recalled to fill the gaps but with a need for more electric talent, Yoho could be the man for the job. The past results haven’t been the best but it’s clear that he’s still capable of being dominant at a high level. A potential wild card, it wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world to give him another shot. View full article

Image courtesy of © Katie Stratman-Imagn Images It has been an action-packed season for Jose Quintana. After signing a modest one-year contract with Milwaukee in March and getting a late start to his pre-season prep, he came out of the gate like gangbusters and posted a 1.14 ERA over his first four starts. Unfortunately, the good fortune didn’t last long. He spent a stint on the injured list, and his next 11 starts combined for a much less appealing 4.45 ERA. Around this year’s trade deadline, there was an impending logjam in Milwaukee’s rotation. Both Quintana and Nestor Cortes were candidates to be moved. There was a strong case to be made that Quintana should’ve been the one traded, but ultimately, Cortes went to the Padres in exchange for Brandon Lockridge. Once again, it seems like Milwaukee knew something that we didn’t. In the four starts he has made since the trade deadline, Quintana has thrown 23 ⅓ innings, with a 2.70 ERA and 3.89 FIP. So is this a real improvement, or just another stretch of lucky results? A particularly nitpicky Quintana critic might highlight that the competition he faced in his last four starts isn’t exactly the stiffest. He pitched against the Nationals (24th in OPS), Atlanta (14th in OPS), Pirates (30th in OPS), and Reds (17th in OPS). Of those teams, the only one with more than a 1% chance to make the postseason (per FanGraphs’s projections) is the Reds, who have a 19.7% chance to crack a Wild Card spot. Nonetheless, even the worst big-league teams are still good enough to be a threat on any given day. Although they were against apparently weaker opponents, these four starts tell us a lot about what is working for him and how he has adapted his game to accept his weaknesses. Earlier in the year, Matthew Trueblood wrote a great piece about how a guy like Quintana can have bottom-of-the-barrel peripherals and rapidly declining stuff while still chewing up the game’s best hitters. This past month, he returned to doing a lot of what was discussed in Matt’s article. Without the ability to miss bats, his strikeout rate was still comfortably below 20% over this stretch of four good starts, but rather than trying to avoid the inevitable, he has been laser-focused on generating weak contact. Here's how his batted-ball data compares from the middle of the season to his most recent outings. ERA Average Exit Velocity Line Drive % Ground Ball % Fly Ball % Home Run/Fly Ball % Pull % Hard-Hit % 5/1 - 7/31 4.45 88.5 mph 17.6% 45.2% 37.2% 14.3% 36.5% 29.6% 8/1 - Present 2.70 88.5 mph 20.8% 36.1% 43.1% 9.7% 33.3% 34.7% It’s a little kooky that his average exit velocity has stayed exactly where it is, but other than that, the major pattern that emerges is that Quintana is getting fewer ground balls and more fly balls. However, fewer of the fly balls are leaving the yard, and if you watch the tape, many of them are settling harmlessly in the gloves of Brewers outfielders. One key contributor to this shift in batted-ball data is yet another change in his pitch mix over these two spans. 4-Seam % Sinker % Curveball Changeup % 5/1 - 7/31 11.10% 44.90% 22.7% 21.4% 8/1 - Present 16.80% 37.20% 25.1% 20.9% Fewer sinkers means fewer ground balls, and more curveballs and fastballs mean more lift. However, he’s sitting in that Goldilocks zone where batters are getting under his pitches just enough to limit the exit velocity. With the way that his year has gone, this shift makes sense. His sinker and changeup have been worth negative run value this year, while his curveball and slurve have been remarkably efficient in comparison. Batters are averaging just .169 and .118 against those pitches, respectively. One characteristic that seems to limit the effectiveness of his sinker is its location. Traditionally, the best sinkers are located down in the zone. Quintana's tendency to leave his sinker a little too high creates hard-hit line drives up the middle, rather than harmless dribblers to middle infielders. So, a heavier reliance on his secondary offerings seems to have helped bridge the gap, at least for now. Furthermore, he has only walked 4.2% of opposing hitters over the past month, which is good no matter what else you're doing. The broader question is whether he’ll be able to keep this up, and the answer is: probably not. It’s difficult to get by as a starter in today’s league with just two pitches and no competitive fastball offering. Sooner or later, scouting reports will catch up; his curveball and changeup could soon follow a similar decline as his sinker. Luckily, it’s an issue that Milwaukee won’t have to think about for much longer, but it could have big implications on the postseason roster. They’ve trusted him to get this far, but how much they'll trust him come October is hard to guess. View full article

what EXACTLY is this CREW BREWING?????

Image courtesy of © Michael McLoone-Imagn Images Last year was arguably the best of William Contreras’s major league career. He started the season off as a potential MVP candidate, and although he slowed down significantly in June and July, he finished with strong numbers and set career-best marks in hits (167), home runs (23), RBI (92), stolen bases (9), walks (78), and rWAR (4.9). 2025 has been a different story. For much of the first half of the season, he seemed average at best at the plate, and things only regressed as time went on. Earlier in the year, the good folks here at Brewer Fanatic talked about how playing through a fractured left hand was hampering his effectiveness and questioned why he hadn’t yet been moved to the injured list. On the field, the biggest adverse effect this had was on his power, restricting him to a slugging percentage of just .347 over the 390 plate appearances he had before the All-Star break. However, since the start of the second half, it seems that both he and his stat line have returned to full health. In the 115 plate appearances he has had, he’s slashing .317/.391/.554 with as many home runs as he had in more than three times as many plate appearances in the first half. The biggest sign that things are finally moving in the right direction is his ISO, which has increased from .102 in the first half of the season to .237 in the second half, and the main driver behind this positive shift has been a resurgence in his bat speed. Here are how some of his major bat tracking statistical categories compare before and after the All-Star break: Average Bat Speed Fast Swing Rate Squared-Up % on Contact Pre-ASB 72.8 mph 31.2% 36.1% Post-ASB 74.4 mph 49.7% 28.7% A jump in bat speed of nearly 2 mph is nothing to sneeze at and is a major improvement on its own. However, what might be an even bigger step forward is the massive increase in fast swing rate. Statcast describes fast swings as swings with a bat speed of >=75 mph, and Contreras went from exceeding that threshold less than ⅓ of the time to crossing it nearly half the time. His fast swing rate over this span puts him in the same ballpark as noted sluggers like Kyle Stowers (49.2%) and Bryce Harper (48.0%). This has predictably coincided with a jump in barrel rate and exit velocity. Contreras had an average exit velocity of just 89.8 mph and a barrel rate of just 4.6% in the first half. In the second half, he bumped his average exit velocity all the way up to 93.3 mph with a barrel rate of 9.6%. He has essentially made the shift from being Josh Lowe to being Julio Rodríguez when it comes to quality of contact. Even more encouraging is the fact that the other characteristics of his game that were already good before his power outage have remained. He’s still walking at a near 10% clip over this span and striking out 16.5% of the time. Simply put, he’s still exercising good plate discipline, but he’s now hitting the ball with more authority, something he has done his whole career. He still has a slight launch angle issue, which has limited the amount of home runs he has been able to produce, even with the added pop on his batted balls, but even with flatter flight paths, hard hit balls can still be immensely impactful if they end up as doubles in the gaps. This was most recently apparent in Milwaukee’s recent series against the Pirates, in which Contreras had an exit velocity of 107.6 mph on this RBI double against Paul Skenes. Much of the Brewers' news cycle as of late has surrounded the team’s seeming inability to lose games, even when faced with insurmountable odds and with no clear superstars leading the roster. What most have gotten right about this team is that the responsibility of winning has been placed on everybody’s shoulders. Still, as one of the most talented and longest-tenured members in the lineup, William Contreras’s role in the recent stretch of good fortune shouldn’t be overlooked. He may have given us plenty of reasons to doubt and question his abilities, but his recent results have demonstrated that he’s turned a corner at just the right time. He isn’t just holding his own; he’s leading Milwaukee’s charge towards their next pennant. View full article

he's been drinking too much whole milk

Image courtesy of © Michael McLoone-Imagn Images 2024 was a great year for Brice Turang. His game took a big step forward in nearly every aspect. While he was unable to maintain his offensive momentum after the All-Star break, he established himself as one of the best overall defenders in MLB. He received a Platinum Glove for his efforts, and statistically, it should have come as no surprise. He led all of MLB with +22 Defensive Runs Saved and placed in the top decile of qualified players for Outs Above Average. While not immediately concerning, there’s still quite a discrepancy between being ranked first overall in one defensive statistic and being ranked 56th in the other. This year, the difference is somehow even greater. Turang’s seven DRS places him 33rd in MLB, while his OAA of -3 places him 199th. So, how is it that one statistic still rates him as a pretty solid defender while the other grades him out to be quite a bit below average? Unlike stats like wOBA and OPS, which have slightly different formulas but more or less evaluate the same qualities, it’s not too uncommon for players to have very different values between OAA and DRS, and this is because they measure different aspects of baseball defense. MLB has a long, convoluted definition of OAA and even has different definitions for outfielders and infielders. For Turang, we’ll obviously focus on the infield definition, which, according to MLB, is defined by four qualities: How far the fielder has to go to reach the ball How much time does he have to get there How far is he then from the base the runner is heading to On force plays, how fast the batter is, on average So, like a lot of advanced stats like Expected Batting Average, each batted ball is assigned a value based on the above characteristics, and the more challenging the play, the more it counts towards accumulating OAA. In essence, OAA tracks one thing - the ability for a player to get a batted ball into his glove. DRS, on the other hand, has a far more complex formula that is designed to be a far more holistic evaluation of defense. Things like double plays and throwing errors are factored into DRS but are not fully captured in OAA. This is intentional, as OAA is meant to be a fielding and positional metric, not a catch-all defensive statistic. This brings us back to Turang. Broadly speaking, players with poor OAA but high DRS are typically ones who aren’t as mobile but are positioned correctly and don’t make very many mistakes. Although he’s still on the faster end, good positioning makes it such that he doesn’t see a lot of rewarded OAA for making plays on hard-hit balls that come right to him. For example, this ground ball by Dansby Swanson was 102.9 mph off the bat but fielded cleanly without much movement required. Statcast also breaks down OAA by lateral direction, which shows us that he has -6 OAA when moving towards first base, specifically in the 1B/2B hole, which is outlined below as section 2B-2. Sometimes, he doesn’t get to the ball because he seems to be shaded more to the pull side and gets caught off guard when the hitter goes the other way, like with this Jorge Polanco single: While neither one of these was ruled as an error, they likely had a negative impact on his OAA. It’s hard to say for sure since we don’t know exactly how much value Statcast assigns to each play, but we can say that many plays are rewarded by DRS but not by OAA. To me, the best example of this was a play made on June 23rd against the Pirates. On a tough ground ball that Turang ultimately failed to field before Spencer Horwitz made it to the bag, he was still able to make an out at third base with some quick thinking and a strong throw. So there are a couple of takeaways for this season based on these two statistics and watching the tape. First, he has a weakness in fielding balls towards first base. Whether that’s a result of unfortunate positioning, getting a bad jump, or simply a coincidence is unclear. Second, despite this aspect of his game regressing from last year, he’s still a good defender overall. He may not get to every ball in a timely manner, but he’s still able to convert more than his fair share of outs. He isn’t the same elite fielder we saw last year, but few players are able to maintain an elite level of defensive production year over year. It’s a far more nuanced and variable aspect of the sport than hitting, and it’s the same reason why the figures we use to describe a player’s abilities can often tell diverging stories. This is all the more reason to avoid depending on one number to tell the whole story. Turang's tale is as complex as any other’s. Despite his flaws, his valuable contributions with the glove and increased production at the plate still make him one of the most important players on this year’s Brewers roster. View full article

You know what's interesting about Peralta is his numbers for the season when broken down by times facing opponent in a game. 1st PA: .586 OPS, 5.17 K/BB 2nd PA: .687 OPS, 2.95 K/BB 3rd PA: .637 OPS, 1.18 K/BB My read on this is it's probably exactly what you're talking about. As guys start to see him more often, they're spitting on his stuff outside of the zone. Interestingly his OPS numbers aren't that far off as he goes through but the strikeout to walk rate gets cut in half like a geometric sequence. His career splits aren't as aggressive but there's still a significant drop in K/BB when he gets to the third time through the order. It also makes his inning count a deceptive underestimate of his workload because this guy will need 108 pitches to get through five innings.