Jason Wang

:)

yeah that may be fault. i paid a small bot farm to crank up the votes so I could put out an article about how unjust the process was but I didn't have enough money to beat out the dodgers PR machine :(

Image courtesy of © Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images Heading into June, the Brewers had a great duo at first base. Rhys Hoskins was seemingly back to his old self, holding an .849 OPS on the first day of the month, while Jake Bauers had an OPS of .814 as an understudy. However, despite Milwaukee having an outstanding month of June as a team, their sluggers at first base weren’t necessarily included in the festivities. Hoskins and Bauers had OPS figures of .538 and .532, respectively, a sobering fact that would only become apparent if one had deliberately taken a peek under the hood. The Brewers have struggled to get the most out of Hoskins since they signed him as a free agent heading into 2024, and while he is better this year, he’s just one more less-than-ideal month from regressing to replacement-level territory. His profile is somewhat confusing to interpret, as he has one of the lowest chase rates of qualified hitters (19.0%) but his whiff rate (27.4%) is comfortably worse than average. Generally, this means that he is primarily getting beaten in the strike zone, which isn’t a good sign for someone who’s expected to be a power hitter. His struggles against breaking balls (.247 SLG) and offspeed (.250 SLG) only make his numbers even more lopsided, and opposing pitchers have apparently picked up on this, attacking him more aggressively with non-fastballs. In the month of June, he swung and missed a total of 44 times. Fourteen of these whiffs were against some sort of fastball variant (four-seamer, sinker, cutter), whereas 17 of them were against sliders, alone. In a perfect world, Bauers would be the yin to Hoskins’ yang, but in reality, they are actually remarkably similar. Neither hitter chases pitches outside of the zone, but both still have high whiff and strikeout rates. Bauers is great against sinkers and cutters, but has been getting dominated by the four-seam fastball—a fatal flaw in the big leagues. This doesn't even give Pat Murphy the luxury of plugging and playing an option depending on the situation, since they share too many weaknesses. The fact that Bauers would even be discussed as a candidate for more serious playing time speaks to the issue at hand. I am as much of a Jake Bauers truther as anyone you’ll ever meet, but if a career backup player with an 86 wRC+ over nearly 2,000 big-league plate appearances is someone who might be asked to step up into a key role for a postseason team, the results are likely going to be subpar. Internally, the minor-league options at first base aren’t much better. Ernesto Martinez Jr. has the most innings at first base with the Sounds and has been perfectly okay at the plate this year, posting a 108 wRC+. Andrew Vaughn was so bad he was unplayable even for the White Sox but has put up a respectable 144 wRC+ since joining the Sounds (albeit over a span of just 44 plate appearances). Tyler Black has barely played a month's worth of games and has plenty of work to do before he’s ready to return to the big leagues, currently sitting at a 15 wRC+ at Triple-A. At this point, the best option on paper might unironically be Bobby Dalbec who has a 144 wRC+ in the minors this year while dipping his toes in the first base waters. And before anyone laments the departure of Wes Clarke in exchange for a few simoleons, the Astros have kept him at Double-A for the time being, signaling a lack of confidence in his preparedness for the majors. If the Brewers want to retain their current Wild Card spot and get past the first round of the postseason for the first time since 2018, they’ll probably need more than what they currently have. It’s theoretically possible for Bauers and Hoskins to tinker with their approaches and get back to being viable options in the lineup, but neither has done so in the recent past. With less than a month to go before the deadline and a narrow lead in the standings, Milwaukee’s front office is left in an unenviable position at first base. View full article

I think there's a little more to the numbers. Statcast Baserunning Run Value combines both runs from stolen bases as well as runs via extra bases (e.g., going first to third on a short single). This year, Turang is indeed above average but he has six fewer runs via stolen bases than he did last year. He is on pace for 6 WAR but could what if he was on pace for 7 or 8? Would that be the difference between a division title, a Wild Card berth, and missing the playoffs entirely? Could a stolen base or caught stealing be the deciding factor in a pivotal elimination game? Maybe – baseball games are often decided by small mistakes. His offense is better and his defense is still great but swiping bags was also a major part of his toolkit in 2024. He's still an awesome contributor to the team but the thing is, we've seen him be an incredible contributor by being a major stolen base threat just last year so a closer look into why exactly a major aspect of his success last year hasn't been replicated this year is definitely worth a closer look. But I'm also biased so take everything I've said with a grain of salt.

Jacob Misiorowski was supposed to toe the slab on 6/18 against the Chicago Cubs before the game was postponed due to rain. Personally, I’ve never heard of a few drops of water getting in the way of America’s national pastime but alas, his next outing was pushed until 6/20 where he’d face the Twins. Given how he performed, I assume the Cubs breathed a sigh of relief that the nimbostratus clouds had swung in their favor. In what was likely a miserable viewing experience for Twins fans, Misiorowski gave up just one hit, one walk, and two earned runs, all of which came in the seventh inning at which point Misiorowski was promptly pulled. On 86 pitches, he threw 60 strikes and generated nine whiffs, five of which came against his slider. You know, the slider that averages 94 mph and really behaves more like a cutter but is labeled a slider because why the heck not? He threw six perfect innings against an offense that has averaged a .731 OPS over the past 30 days, the third-highest in MLB. The Cubs would have been quite the test but when presented with arguably greater challenge, he stepped up in an even bigger way. So this all begs the question, what comes next for the rookie? Two games still isn’t a ton of data but it has given us a closer look at what he can do beside throwing the ball super duper hard and how he attacks hitters at the highest level of competition. His four-seam fastball is one of the best in baseball. It has an average velocity of 99.7 mph with 16 inches of induced vertical break and FanGraphs has given it a Stuff+ figure of 124, the highest of any fastball on the Brewers. It’s really the key to his success and scouts bumped it from a 70 to an 80-grade heading into this year. With its velocity, rise, and Misiorowski’s ridiculous 7.7 foot extension, it’s simply a touch pitch to catch up to, especially when located well. His slider is similarly effective, having a whiff rate of 33.3%. It is the only pitch he has given up any hits on so far this year but it has also been a tough pitch to hit. He used it to pick apart Carlos Correa to great effect, getting him to swing and miss three times. His curveball grades similarly to his fastball although we haven’t seen much of it just yet since he’s only thrown it 13 times thus far. A three-pitch arsenal is a little thin for a modern-day starter, especially since he’s more of a two-pitch guy anyway, but I’m sure as he continues to develop he’ll work on getting some off-speed offerings and stuff going arm side. He has thrown a few changeups according to Statcast but given the intrinsic properties, it’s really hard to tell whether they were actually changeups or just wonky fastballs that were misclassified. In terms of what he can work on, command is undoubtedly the biggest thing. It has been an issue since he was drafted and he’s never really come close to having a walk rate below 10%. It’s also a contributing factor to his first pitch strike rate of 54.1%, quite a bit lower than the league average mark of 61.1%. He’s doing better when it comes to finding the strike zone overall, landing 50.9% of his pitches, but greater precision that allows him to get into more pitcher-friendly counts would make him even more dominant. Then there’s his whiff rate. Despite his stuff, his whiff rate after two starts is just 25.9%, right about league average. Both his zone swing (70.6%) and zone contact (85.0%) rates are higher than league average which signals that he’s filling up the juicier parts of the zone a little too often. His hard hit rate is better than league average but his average exit velocity is worse, meaning that when hitters do get into one of his pitches, they’re getting pummeled. With a 1.64 ERA after his first 11 innings, it may seem like the possibilities for Misiorowski are endless but it will only take one start for all of that to be turned upside down. The potential is clearly there but if he wants to have a longer career that allows him to tap into all of it, he’ll need to make a few adjustments. Developing his arsenal is one tweak that the Brewers will likely focus on in the near future. Spencer Strider is an example of a starter who can be successful with just two pitches but as we’ve seen from his rocky start to the year, the second his velocity or movement dips even slightly, it no longer plays. Misiorowski won’t be able to throw 100 mph forever nor should he expect to. A season-ending injury is all but a sure thing these days and for someone with his skillset, developing a game plan that is resilient to an unforeseen circumstance can help prevent him from becoming the next Noah Syndergaard. I don’t doubt that the command will improve. It was steadily getting better through his minor league career and Milwaukee has been pretty good about getting things under control. Abner Uribe had a walk rate of 15.7% in 2023 and it’s down to 10.4% this year. Freddy Peralta debuted with a 12.5% walk rate and now consistently hovers around the 9% mark. At this point, it really seems like the sky's the limit for Misiorowski. He’s rightfully the talk of the town and it will be a privilege to watch him develop into a potentially generation pitching talent with the Brewers. He’s already got all of the makings of a big league ace and he’ll likely be leading this team’s rotation before you know it. With a few more steps in the right direction, he has the potential to be one of the greatest arm talents to ever stroll through town. View full article

maybe u guys are right. .933 OPS so far in june is not bad. that said i hope that he does remain healthy so that he and brice turang can become urban planners after their playing days are done.

I have to ask where all of this leaves Christian Yelich. After last year, I feel like there was a lot of discussion about moving him to first base or DH permanently which seemed like an uncharacteristic move by the Brewers who'd be paying him $26 million to sit for half the game. This year, it seems like a reality. Of the 72 games he has played so far, he has been a DH in 66 of them. Isaac Collins has been a huge defensive upgrade (we all know how much the Brewers tend to prioritize that) and his bat isn't half bad either. If Collins continues to be as good as he has been (5'8 by the way short king outfielders stay winning), what does that mean for Yelich? His contract has him under team control through 2028 with a $20mm mutual option and $6.5mm buyout in 2029. Curious.

i do it for you, MattK

Image courtesy of © Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images If you only know one current Brewers prospect, it’s probably Jacob Misiorowski. Ever since he was drafted in the second round of the 2022 draft, people have been talking about the 6’7” kid who has a wicked fastball and unbelievable stuff. After posting outstanding numbers in Triple-A and witnessing another cascade of devastating starting pitcher injuries for Milwaukee, he was finally called up to take the big league mound for the first time on June 12. For the most part, he met his lofty expectations. As I mentioned earlier, Misiorowksi’s most impressive tool is his fastball. Scouts have given it the elusive 80 grade, and in his first major-league start, it was easy to see why. It averaged a velocity of 99.0 mph, touched 102.2 mph, and had nearly 17 inches of induced vertical break. For those who are more qualitatively minded, all of those numbers describe an elite fastball. But wait folks, there’s more. He also throws a slider that averages 94.3 mph (illegal in 10 states) and a curveball at 87.9 mph (illegal in nine states). He's far from being a one-trick pony, and every pitch that comes out of his hand has quite a bit of gas behind it. But don’t let the box score showing five scoreless innings fool you: his first big-league showdown was quite the challenge for the young 23-year-old. The Cardinals have been neck-and-neck with the Brewers in the standings for the majority of the season, largely thanks to their lineup, whose combined .721 OPS places them 11th in MLB. Leading the group in OPS is Iván Herrera, the team’s backup catcher and frequent designated hitter. His sample size is a little smaller than everyday players on the team, but he entered the matchup against Misiorowski with a .941 OPS. He profiles as a guy with great bat speed, quality-of-contact abilities, and outstanding numbers against fastballs. In other words, he’s a tough nut to crack for any pitcher. So, when he ran into Misiorowski for the second time while the Cardinals were down just 1-0, it was sure to be a tense moment. By the top of the fourth inning, the reality of Misiorowski's workload had begun to set in. The velocity on his heater was comfortably below the triple-digit mark he started off at, and the issues with command that have followed him since he became a professional caused him to walk the leadoff hitter, Lars Nootbaar, on four noncompetitive pitches. After getting Masyn Winn to fly out, in stepped Herrera. Misiorowski’s first pitch was risky: a 98-mph four-seam fastball right down the middle. If it had been any slower, there’s a good chance that Herrera would’ve put St. Louis on top. Luckily, he was just a tad late and fouled it back, putting him behind 0-1. Likely wanting to work quickly and get further ahead in the count, Misiorowski threw another fastball, but he overcorrected on the finish, yanking it away from Herrera. In retrospect, it’s probably good that he missed the zone by as much as he did, because he also lost velocity on it and it ended up at just 95.5 mph. This evened up the count at 1-1. Now, 1-1 is a crucial count in baseball. As a pitcher, if you can get to two strikes, you set the pace of the rest of the at-bat. You get to expand the zone, deploy your breaking stuff, and typically close the situation early and efficiently. Usually, being aggressive at 1-1, especially with a great fastball, is the move. However, Misiorowski had just thrown two non-competitive fastballs back-to-back. Neither pitch had good location, and since Herrera has been a great fastball hitter all year, it was time to dip into the secondary stuff. It seems like the game plan was to use his curveball as a putaway pitch since he only ever threw it when he was ahead with two strikes. It seemed like the slider would be the better option here. Furthermore, Herrera had already whiffed on the slider and taken a called strike on the only two sliders had seen in the previous at-bat. The pitch was in a good spot, just touching the outside edge of the zone, and Herrera got just enough to foul it off and fall behind 1-2. Fun fact: the broadcast seems to have misclassified the pitch as a cutter—because seriously, who allowed a slider to be thrown at 94 mph? Now the rookie was in the driver’s seat. In some cases, this would allow him to get a few low-risk pitches out of the zone in, but with Willson Contreras coming up and a runner already on first, there wasn’t any time to waste. He had to execute and locate a great fastball. If he missed outside of the zone, it would allow Herrera to get back in the count, and if he missed his spot in the zone, it could go for extra bases. So, Misiorowski placed a 98-mph fastball at the top of the zone, right over Herrera’s swing, punching him out in impressive fashion. There should be two main takeaways from this at-bat and debut. First, his command will become a real problem if Misiorowski isn’t able to get it under control. Not only did he walk four batters against just five strikeouts, his pitch count was up to 78 after just five innings. With more traffic on the basepaths, he'll limit his own longevity and be more susceptible to injury, he even reported some minor cramping after his outing. On the other hand, his stuff is so darn competitive that when he does locate pitches where they need to go, it’s nigh unhittable. The Cardinals proved this claim by, well, failing to record a single hit against him. He’s young, but will be facing an even bigger test against the current kings of the NL Central, the Cubs, in his next start. In a potential case of unstoppable force vs. immovable object, we’ll get another glimpse at someone who might be leading Milwaukee’s rotation in the not-so-distant future, in a game with plenty of stakes even beyond that portent. View full article

He does have a pretty affordable $8mm team option for next year but that's it. He has been trying to get an extendo though.

completely irrelevant to what you said but my barber once cut bobby dalbec's hair while he was in Seattle for a road trip apparently

Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-Imagn Images There have been so many tempting opportunities to throw in the towel this year as a Brewers fan. Maybe it was the way the team started off 0-4. Maybe it was the fact that, as recently as May 21st, the Brewers were below .500 and fourth in the NL Central. Or maybe you’re just generally pessimistic. Regardless of where you stand on the spectrum of optimism, it seems less debatable that the team has been less dominant this year than they have been in recent memory. The team’s playoff odds are currently hovering around the 30% mark, according to FanGraphs, while Baseball Reference provides more optimistic odds of around 40%. In both cases, Milwaukee has less than a coin-flip chance to make the playoffs, setting them up to miss October for just the second time in eight years. Given the current state of the division and the National League, this makes plenty of sense. The Chicago Cubs have seemed nearly unstoppable all season long, holding a dominant 42-28 record with the second-best run differential in MLB (+104). In addition to the big offseason acquisition of Kyle Tucker, Pete Crow-Armstrong has looked less like a defense-first center fielder and more like an MVP candidate, while Carson Kelly is having the best year of his career on all fronts by far. Even in the face of some starting pitching injuries, the rotation has managed to stay afloat thanks to a great year by Matthew Boyd and a solid year by Jameson Taillon. The Wild Card picture doesn’t seem much better, as a highly competitive NL West currently occupies two of the three total slots, with the Phillies claiming the final spot. To their credit, the Brewers are just 2.5 games out of the picture, but it won’t be an easy road forward. The future is even further muddied by the trade deadline, which inconveniently forces teams to classify themselves as buyers or sellers. If they’re willing to take their chances, the Brewers can fork over prospect equity and young talent to give them a better chance to reach the playoff bracket this season. Alternatively, they can trade away some of their impact players and hope that the scheduled bobblehead giveaways are enough to make up for the B-team product that will take the field for the final few months of the season. The case for selling is clear. In addition to the aforementioned obstacles standing between them and a postseason spot, they do have a few impending free agents who could be valuable assets to contenders. Rhys Hoskins has bounced back after a down year last year, and his 118 OPS+ could be a good fit for any team in need of help at first base. Freddy Peralta has a 2.69 ERA over his first 14 starts and would be an outstanding short-term starter rental. Heck, even Jose Quintana may have some suitors if he’s put on the market. In return, some infield and starting pitching depth would be ideal. The best part would be, at least for the front office, it’d allow the payroll to be cut even lower, something that seems to be a top priority based on the organization’s most recent roster move. But the Brewers’ hopes aren’t dead just yet. Sure, there has been discourse online about the possibility of Peralta and Hoskins being traded, but the Brewers haven’t demonstrated the same enthusiasm on the topic. Furthermore, although they were in the depths of the NL Central less than a month ago, they’ve managed to claw their way back, and things seem to be moving in the right direction. The pitching staff has combined for a 3.23 ERA, seventh best in MLB. They’ve called up phenom prospect Jacob Misiorowski and plan to make him an integral part of the rotation. The offense still leaves a little to be desired, especially when it comes to certain players, but other stars are starting to bring it back around. Christian Yelich has taken slight steps forward in the past month, Jackson Chourio’s June is looking much better than his May, and Joey Ortiz is almost back to being an acceptable bat. Almost. Because the Brewers are currently on the fence, the results of the next few weeks will help push them in one direction or the other. Nothing is certain, and the tone of this conversation might change by the start of July. A win streak here or a loss streak there could make or break the season, so while there are still plenty of games left to play, Milwaukee doesn’t have much room for error. View full article

Image courtesy of © Katie Stratman-Imagn Images After more than 1,300 plate appearances, you should more or less know what you’re getting out of Brice Turang. He’s an outstanding middle infield defender with lackluster numbers at the plate. He almost changed our mind on his offensive capabilities last year, posting a .731 OPS in the first half, but by the end of the season, his numbers regressed to an 87 wRC+. This year, he’s off to another great start—but are his improved numbers a sign of a new leaf being turned, or just another first half tease? The thing that has hamstrung his offensive production since he debuted has been his lack of pop. He has never slugged better than .350 over a full season, and his quality of contact numbers for his first two major-league seasons were comfortably in the bottom quartile of qualified hitters. This year, it seems to be more of the same. His current ISO of .086 is the 12th-lowest in MLB and is right in line with his career average. Without power in today’s game, it’s difficult to be productive at the plate. This, then, begs the question: why is Turang just one of two players to have an ISO .090 or lower and a wRC+ above 100? To be fair, his wRC+ of 103 is just barely above the league-average threshold of 100, but it still deserves a closer look. His relatively high batting average (.270) and on-base percentage (.350) give him a boost, but is this the new norm or simply the result of luck on batted balls? His .337 batting average on balls in play seems to point us toward the latter, especially since people often use BABIP as a proxy for luck and offensive sustainability. But things are rarely that simple in the sport of baseball. If we instead look at his expected batting average (xBA), a metric that’s based on intrinsic characteristics like launch angle and exit velocity on batted balls, we see that it actually rates Turang as slightly unlucky, giving him a slightly higher mark of .279. To go even deeper, his expected slugging average (xSLG) of .421 makes it even more convincing: he's hitting into tough luck. But that wouldn’t (and shouldn’t) be enough to convince you that he has been swinging a better bat. You see, expected stats aren’t perfect, either. They don’t take into account horizontal launch angle, and the scale by which individual batted balls are granted a batting average is hazy at best. So, let's take a closer look at some more metrics to see if they've moved in the right direction. If you’re a Turang truther like me, you’ll be happy to know that his average exit velocity this season of 91.4 mph is in the top quartile and is miles better (haha, get it? 'cause mph) than last year’s mark of 87.0. All of his quality of contact numbers have taken big steps forward, thanks in large part to a 3-mph increase in his bat speed. Perhaps the Flintstones vitamins I sent him in the mail this offseason finally arrived. So if he’s hitting the ball harder than ever before, why are his ISO and SLG numbers still so disappointing? Well, first, it’s important to acknowledge that while they’re often used as a proxy for power, those metrics don’t translate perfectly. They’re based on a player’s ability to convert batted balls into extra-base hits, often doubles and homers, which require both power and lift to achieve. Unfortunately, Turang’s fly ball rate is below-average. Even more concerning is that he pulls just 3.9% of his batted balls in the air, dramatically limiting the distance he can achieve. In fact, he pulls the ball just 21.7% of the time, significantly lower than the league-average mark of 37.2%. It's pretty tough to be a power hitter when you hit the opposite way 36.7% of the time. Despite this quirk in his approach, though, he has still found a way to make it work thus far in 2025 and it’s clear that he’s closer to a true offensive breakout than he is to repeating the .585 OPS he had during his rookie year. But the best part is that any production he gets out of his bat is just a cherry on top of his primary value, which is on the basepaths and with his glove. He isn’t swiping bags at the same torrid pace as he did last year, but he still has 15 stolen bases, seventh in the National League. He also has six Defensive Runs Saved, more than any second baseman in MLB other than Nico Hoerner (10). Compounded with the fact that offensive expectations for second basemen are generally lower to begin with, it should be no surprise that Turang has been worth 2.6 rWAR so far this year, comfortably more than any other player on the Brewers. So yes, it’s true that after almost 70 games, he has just eight doubles and four homers. It’s also true that the peripherals are just waiting for him to pull a few balls in the air so his actual statistics can reflect what true Brewers fans have known since 2023: that Brice Turang is a talented and potentially helpful hitter. View full article

Image courtesy of Thiéres Rabelo Honorable Mentions Trevor Megill 11 G, 10 IP, 0.90 ERA, 6 H, 1 ER, 6 BB, 9 K, 1.20 WHIP, 7 SV Megill’s numbers didn’t look great to start the season after he gave up three earned runs on April 12 against the Diamondbacks. However, after his ERA ballooned to 5.79 as a result of that outing, he has locked back in, conceding just two runs since—only one of which was in May. He's lowered his ERA to 2.21 for the season. He has his knuckle curve to thank for much of his success. Opposing hitters are whiffing against it 59.2% of the time and it’s three times more valuable than his four-seam fastball on a run value per 100 pitches basis. He hasn’t blown a save opportunity since that aforementioned contest in mid-April, so here’s hoping he continues to be the latest closer success story in Milwaukee. Statistical Nugget: Megill has held opposing batters to a .496 OPS over 38 plate appearances with runners in scoring position. Logan Henderson 3 GS, 15 IP, 1.80 ERA, 11 H, 3 ER, 5 BB, 20 K, 1.07 WHIP Despite being recently optioned to clear room for DL Hall’s return, Henderson pitched extremely well in his three outings. With injuries plaguing the big league rotation, his handful of starts were a helpful stopgap that held down the fort while some of Milwaukee’s arms did their best to recover. Including his debut on April 20, Henderson has a 1.71 ERA over four starts this season—solid numbers for a rookie campaign. Some of his numbers were clearly due for regression, especially his 35.8% strikeout rate, but he was remarkably effective for someone with an average fastball velocity of just 93.0 mph. His arsenal is lacking development and depth, with his four-seam fastball and changeup accounting for 88.6% of his total pitches thrown, but with more time, he could be an outstanding under-the-radar part of the team’s rotation. Statistical Nugget: Henderson has held opposing hitters to a .101 OPS after reaching a 1-1 count. Freddy Peralta 5 GS, 25 ⅔ IP, 3.16 ERA, 22 H, 9 ER, 12 BB, 25 K, 1.32 WHIP Peralta has been throwing the ball this year. Even though his ERA was slightly higher in May than it was in April, it was still a solid number, and has helped him retain his spot as the most valuable member on the team by rWAR (1.7). There was a little more traffic on the basepaths than he probably would have liked, but he was able to minimize trouble to a reasonable degree. The notable changes to his arsenal are likely at least one of the reasons for his performance improvements over last year. He has seemingly ditched his slider altogether, and while he started off with a very effective curveball, his changeup has been the star of the show, holding opposing hitters to a .180 batting average, .000 ISO, and boasting a 36.4% whiff rate. Statistical Nugget: When facing the lineup for a third time, Peralta has limited opposing hitters to a .517 OPS, a lower number than the first (.649 OPS) and second (.643 OPS) times through the order. Pitcher of the Month - Chad Patrick 7 GS, 38 IP, 3.32 ERA, 36 H, 14 ER, 7 BB, 35 K, 1.13 WHIP In an outstanding effort by the rookie, Patrick led the Brewers in innings pitched by a comfortable margin, while also putting up strong numbers. He may not get the same Rookie of the Year attention as guys like Drake Baldwin, but don’t let that fool you: he is having a great year. He currently has a 2.97 ERA over the 63 ⅔ innings he has thrown. Although he has the ability to dial it up to the mid-90s if he so chooses, his most valuable weapon is by far his cutter, which has averaged just 87.5 mph. His stuff isn’t particularly dominant and his strikeout rate of just 21.6% is right about average, but the cutter has made it quite difficult for hitters to square up his pitches. Some 36% of his batted balls are classified as “under” by Statcast, meaning hitters are hitting lots of lazy flies and pop-ups on it. I’d hate to speak too soon and jinx it but so far, he seems like another top-notch rookie arm talent developed by the Brewers. Statistical Nugget: Patrick has a chase contact rate of 72.1%, nearly 15% higher than average. View full article

Honorable Mentions Jake Bauers 42 AB, .262/.367/.452, 11 H, 2 2B, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 7 BB, 3 SB The best bench player in baseball continued his strong season by being extremely productive when he did get a chance at playing time. Despite appearing in just 35 games so far, his rWAR for the season (0.4) is already the most he has accumulated since his rookie campaign in 2018. Given the pace he’s on at the moment, he’s set to surpass it in far fewer plate appearances. If we saw Bauers over a full sample of 600 or more plate appearances, we’d probably see his numbers come down, but given the current depth in the lineup, his limited use seems to fit the team’s needs perfectly. Eighty-one of his 92 plate appearances have come against right-handed pitching, and for a platoon player, a 127 OPS+ isn’t too shabby. Statistical Nugget: Bauers has a 1.119 OPS over 50 plate appearances with men on base. Christian Yelich 106 AB, .245/.292/.462, 26 H, 2 2B, 7 HR, 16 RBI, 6 BB, 4 SB It’s a shame that injuries derailed Yelich’s 2024, which was his best offensive season in years. It’s even more of a shame that 2025 has been a big step back, with his 105 OPS+ the worst mark since 2021. However, it does seem like things are moving in the right direction, most notably in the power department. With his 12 homers, he already has more than he had last year, and some of them have come in big moments. He still has a few things holding him back at the plate. First, his whiff and strikeout rates are both in the bottom quartile of qualified hitters. Second, his launch angle sweet spot rate of 24.5% places him in the 2nd percentile and his 63.3% ground ball rate is almost 20% higher than the league average. This past month, he also traded off plate discipline for more power, walking just six times, but he still has a respectable 10.2% walk rate for the year. Yelich's 1.047 OPS over the last two weeks is immensely encouraging, and could be a sign of meaningful improvements to his approach that will improve his results over the remainder of the season. Statistical Nugget: Yelich has a .577 OPS over 107 plate appearances at home and an .864 OPS over 135 plate appearances away. Hitter of the Month - Rhys Hoskins 96 AB, .271/.345/.531, 26 H, 7 2B, 6 HR, 22 RBI, 12 BB, 1 SB It’s a year late, but the Rhys Hoskins Brewers breakout is finally here. He’s been consistently good all year, but seems to be getting slightly hotter, posting an .866 OPS in April and an .877 OPS in May. The chase and walk rates are back to elite levels, giving him more strikes to hit and better conditions to lean on his talents as a slugger. It might be why his average exit velocity has jumped up almost 3 miles per hour since last year. First base went from the Brewers’ weakest position (.666 OPS, 25th in MLB) to one of their best (.878 OPS, 3rd in MLB), thanks to marked improvements from both Hoskins and Bauers. Unfortunately for Milwaukee, this is the final year on Hoskins’s contract, as his $18-million mutual contract option will likely get declined by someone once the offseason rolls around. If he keeps it up, he’ll likely look to net a bigger deal on the open market. If his numbers regress enough for him to exercise it, he likely wouldn’t be worth the salary to Milwaukee’s front office. So, enjoy the show while you can. By next year, he’ll probably be in a different uniform. Statistical Nugget: Hoskins has a .912 OPS over 64 plate appearances with runners in scoring position. View full article

Image courtesy of © Patrick Gorski-Imagn Images Ever since he arrived in Milwaukee, Caleb Durbin’s player profile has been intriguing. A 14th-round pick out of Division 3 Washington University in St. Louis, making it in the sport of baseball has never been easy, given his relatively small stature. Now that he’s in the big leagues, the challenges have only just begun. One of his biggest struggles this year has been hitting the ball with authority, and it’s a topic that @Jack Stern dove into recently. Durbin must be a Brewer Fanatic lurker because since then, his numbers at the plate have taken a turn. In the last seven days (all stats listed are prior to Friday, May 30), he has slashed .308/.367/.462 with four doubles across 30 plate appearances. He’s also coming up in big moments, most recently walking off the Red Sox with a cool sacrifice fly. This all begs the question: Is he hitting the ball harder than usual, or is it just a small sample? It’s a good question, especially since the walk-off to center field was in shallow enough center to make the play at the plate exciting, even with a speedy Sal Frelick on third. Let’s use the publication date of Jack’s article, May 20th, as the cutoff for this analysis. A quick peek at average exit velocity before and after shows that he isn’t scorching balls any harder than he has been all year, averaging just 81-84 mph off the bat. However, generating power can mean much more than just measuring exit velocity. For example, it’s easy to see how a 120 mph batted ball straight into the dirt could be less valuable than a double to the corner at 95 mph. Furthermore, pulling the ball in the air can add even more distance for guys who don’t possess the natural pop. In Durbin’s case, pulling the ball has absolutely been a major contributor to his recent success. Of the five doubles he has logged across our nine-day sample, four were pulled. Just two of his ten total hits were to the opposite side. Of his 12 pulled balls in play, six had an exit velocity of 90 mph or above, a significant step up from his average exit velocity this season of just 84.2 mph. Another issue he has had all year has been his suboptimal launch angles. His launch angle sweet spot rate of 28.3% places him in the bottom decile of qualified hitters. His fly ball rate of 28.3% is nearly 5% higher than the league average, and his pop-up rate of 14.2% is double the league average. This is further corroborated by his Statcast quality of contact data, which shows that 36.3% of his batted balls are considered “under,” meaning he’s hitting balls in the air but softly. After May 20th, it appears that Durbin began to level out his swing and maintained his launch angles within the sweet spot, between 8 and 32 degrees. At this point, we have enough data to assume that without Mark McGwire’s offseason program of milk and hard work, he’ll never be a home run hitter. He has never had a minor league season with more than ten home runs, but by pulling the ball more consistently and getting flatter launch angles than he currently does, he could still be an effective hitter. His average attack direction is already six degrees to the pull side, and he gets an ideal attack angle more than two-thirds of the time, meaning the swing is actually in decent shape. Even without the ability to rack up hard-hit doubles and home runs like his more physically imposing peers, Durbin has already shown that he can be a formidable force at the plate, even if over a small sample. By leaning into what he can improve in his quality of contact and getting his walk rate out of the bottom decile, he could end up being the third baseman the Brewers have been after for years. View full article