BrewerFan

I just started listening and what a GREAT point they're making. You want to spend this money on Jackson Chourio or spend twice this on Cody Bellinger? It's a no-brainer. That's setting aside how overrated I think Bellinger's "bounce back" season was. The raw numbers were great, but projecting forward, the exit velo and the advanced analytics, that's a helluva risk.

I'd LOVE to become the Braves in this regard. They are set up so well moving forward. They have their stars all locked up just up until the back end of their prime years. Some are more expensive like Austin Riley(still a good value). He signed 3 years into his service time(well, as he was finishing his 3rd year) and has put up ~19 WAR the last 3 years. He's signed through age 34. Olson was heading into his 2nd year of arbitration, so you paid a premium there(and that worked out well thus far). Harris, Murphy, Albies, and then Acuna Jr. SIX of their 9 positions. Your C, 1B, 2B, 3B, CF, RF. All 6 are guys who you can reasonably expect 5-6 WAR from and in big years can, as we saw, out-perform even hat. I'd again continue to pound the drums for a Uribe deal, a Contreras deal, and maybe a Frelick deal. Obviously at very different numbers. Uribe for 8/30M or use Ashby/Peralta's deals. Contreras for an 8/80M type deal + 2 team options as well. Someone broke it down and compared it to what Murphy signed for next year and that's a fair deal relative to Murphy's and adds a ton of value to Contreras moving forward and allows you to do whatever with Quero. BUT--again, Jackson Chourio is in a different league than all of these players. What he's done at his age, what he's accomplished is just different. The upside is so much higher there. And it's rare. I would bet money Jackson Holliday doesn't sign that deal simply because he got a large signing bonus, he comes from money. And you just saw what it can cost if you wait a month or a few months with Carroll or Julio Rodriguez.

Yeah, Gibson was a massive human being. I thought he got up into the 400s. I actually thought he was that big for a time at UW, but they got him to lose some weight. It's just so rare for a human that big to be able to take the beating their knees, hips, ankles, back...all that stuff takes. And as we saw with Mekhi Becton, the time it takes to come back from injury can be much longer. It's very rare to have an Ogden-sized player who stays healthy his whole career. And almost all of those guys, once you get past 330 or so, you're going to have a lot of bad weight.

That's a REALLY dumb stat IMO. I would imagine Dayne would be higher simply because he'd be used in more short-yardage situations, but...that's not a particularly useful metric for me. But if you ARE going to use it, Barber had a significantly higher success rate in total during their time with the Giants. Yards per carry is a much better metric IMO when you're talking about the same team. You don't need to account for the OL like you do when talking about Barry vs Emmitt(imagine Barry running behind that 90's Cowboys OL). And you don't need to get real deep with EPA or stuff like that PFF does where you have someone grading every individual play. Something that's going to lead to inconsistencies even if it's the same person, but now you have multiple people doing it? The Giants went to the Super Bowl Dayne's rookie year. They spent the 11th pick. I could be wrong, but I don't think a HC in the NFL is going to give carries to an inferior back because he's not getting along with the back. But, that's just my opinion.

I tend to agree. I don't think he ever becomes Bettis-like. Bettis had extraordinarily quick feet for a back his size. Just in general he had quick feet. I'd also argue Dayne was never the "best" College Running Back of all time, but I get you're going by yards. Dayne had a really nice NFL career. Not everyone is going to be a superstar. He probably could have made a little more out of his ability, but I also think he was wildly overrated as the #11 pick and had a limited upside. Totally off the topic, but when I think about these big, bruising, physical backs, it just makes me marvel that much more at Jim Brown and Bo Jackson. Both were in that ~240 range with incredible speed and they were elusive. Brown at a time when many OL were barely 240!

Oh...I thought he got 5/85. The Covid year doesn't really matter in this regard(it certainly helped that he started, then opted out so it counted as a year of service, but not in their initial GTD offer).

Yes, but it's not a FULL 7 seasons. I'm the first to say, "it's closer to 7 seasons," but you really couldn't bring him up for OD before this contract. You had to worry about service time. So this could VERY possibly mean an additional 1st Rd draft pick, plus the money. Also, it's not a stupid game now. It's just "this is our guy, he's here through the age of 30...we don't need to start bracing 3-4 years in and talking about when we're going to trade him. That's really the huge thing. Most likely he's going to really struggle for stretches this year. A .770 OPS would be great, his D and Speed, also big. But that burns one year, then you'll likely have another fluke season. That's 2 years. By the time he really blows up and gets comfortable, you get maybe 1-2 years before you really start to worry about that(trading him). Burnes was actually an outlier in that he won his Cy Young earlier than normal, but that's been a constant issue and source of angst. How we're "blowing" the Burnes/Woodruff window. Well, it would have been all the worse if Chourio is the player people expect him to be. And again, if he's NOT the player we expect/hope he'll be, I don't think this is a bad deal even then. Even if you end up overpaying a little bit, he should provide 2-3 WAR at least with his power, speed, and glove. Maybe Byron Buxton isn't quite the "floor" for him, but it's pretty close...IMO.

What was LoCain GTD?

That's just it. You're not getting a whole lot for any of them right now. The most for Frelick, but he's got limited power, so why rush this and make any moves. Signing Chourio doesn't mean we need to rush and trade someone else. If Wiemer had Brinson like value, then maybe, but he's got GG potential in RF, should be able to hit for power and even if he only hits .220, that's a valuable player. Mitchell might have the most value for a team that believes the injuries have been fluke, but...let 'em play. I'd rather miss out on the light return and play it out than get a marginal package back and trade away an impact player. As for Black over Frelick, Black has been playing 3B/1B and came up as a 2B. And I don't believe he's a far greater base runner. I'm not even sure he's better. Black stole a lot of bases last year, but Frelick has better speed, and better defense and was a much higher-rated prospect just a few months ago.

You're not getting it. Think how much better Atlanta would be if they spent 40M on a REAL stud instead of giving Acuna Jr 100M and 10 years of team control?

I'm learning so much! Now...what if they hadn't signed Yelich and INSTEAD signed him for ~100M that year and another player for 100M? Just think how AWESOME we'd be then!

It took me a while, but I was struggling to! I was laughing WAAAY too hard!

Haslam owns nearly as much of the Bucks as Mark A owns of the Brewers. The revenue sharing is...too complicated I guess.

I will call your Chapman and up you an Ohtani! Put your money where your mouth is and guarantee they'll sign Ohtani!

LOL...no sunshine, I'm not certain of it AT ALL. I'm laughing at your wording. What I am certain of is that you keep using the entire 8-year value of Chourio's deal and somehow tying that to Matt Olson/Chapman(a Matt who played for Oakland once at least) as though there's any correlation. This. This is what I'm laughing at. Oooh! Hot take! They don't sign the top 3B and arguably the 2nd best position player available! I FURTHER guarantee "Matt Olson" signs for more than your 3/48, 2/32 projections. Hoskins likely as well. LOL...over 8 years or just this year? LITERALLY NOBODY HAS SAID THEY WILL SIGN OLSON/CHAMPMAN AND HOSKINS! This is all a figment of your own imagination. It's simply been explained to you that the reason they won't ISN'T because they're paying Chourio 80M over 8 years! What can you still possibly be confused about😂 I assure you, I have not once orgasmed over the front office! But ooh...you bold! Dude...you totally made this conversation up in your head and are just randomly running with it now!

Given the market for bats, I think he's significantly low on both, but given the scope of how wrong he's been in general, it almost seems irrelevant.

LOL...you really DON'T understand how this Chourio deal works, do you? (Pst...they're not paying him 80M this year!) Go ahead and disagree with me! I dare you😂🤣🤣 I am glad you're guaranteeing they won't sign anyone for 2 years PLUS MAYBE an option year. I'm still floored how you think that's a result of this deal, but...I mean, this can only be explained but so clearly. What I'M mad about is they aren't signing Sean Murphy to a deal this year. That should have been our target in free agency!

No...it's a nonsensical argument to begin with. It's like saying they could spend 212M this year because of the total value of the Yelich deal. How do you not get that's not how payroll works?

Dude, what are you talking about? When did Matt Olson become a Free Agent? And you're taking the ENTIRE value and saying they could have spent that in one year? Cool. Not how any of this works. Uh...no. Because people ranting about Mark A being cheap in the first place don't understand what they're talking about. Which is fine...but they're also the most confident. ~140M payroll in this market for a guy who owns less than 40% of a team that generates literally hundreds of millions LESS than the largest market teams means he isn't "cheap." You rambling about signing Matt Olson as a FA when he was signed by ATL last year for ~180M before he had a career year is one of the most ridiculous, off-the-wall takes when it comes to this whole Chourio discussion I've seen...but you come close when you complain that for...some reason THIS move means we can't sign the guy who had a sub .800 OPS as a DH only when he last played...which wasn't last year. Bottom line, the same people complaining about this would be the same people complaining about losing Chourio in 5 years when he was due to become a FA shortly. There's no rhyme or reason, people just like to complain about things.

You wait a year or two until they've proven they're stars...and just ignore the fact that at THAT point, you're paying 300M to sign them...which of course isn't feasible in this market(at least not while building around them). I have absolutely NO clue how you could be opposed to this. This is the type of deal that we looked at and said the Braves got incredible value from Albies and Acuna Jr's deals. I'd do these deals as often as possible. I'd do Contreras right now to a similar-sized deal, I'd give Uribe one. Uribe you give far less. Frelick, 8 years 40M+ 2 option years. Those are good bets and the best ways to get players at below market through their prime years. BUT, even if you don't agree with the others, Chourio is a no-brainer...

I've been a huge Turang fan. He looked absolutely lost and probably shouldn't have been playing at the end of last year, but there's no way I'd replace him with Black. First of all, you're losing quite a bit on the defensive side, second...he was a rookie and when he was hitting, he looked good. It's really rare for a player to come up and consistently hit right away...and when they do, they're Corbin Carroll or Gunnar Henderson types usually. I think he'll hit ~.260/.340/.440 and play great defense. That's optimistic obviously, but I'm confident in him. I think a 4 WAR player is well within reach with a couple seasons he maybe hits 6... But that's hard to see in light of his poor rookie year.

I just don't love the 3-3-5 stack. Seems I don't get what you're doing. Ideally, you get 3 320LB space eaters who can all play 2 gap, then let the 3 backers have open lanes. But I don't have to like it and a base is almost pointless. The most prevalent defense in CFB now is the Nickel. But first, you have to stop the run. This has been just a disappointing first season given the schedule and what was a more talented secondary than we normally have IMO. The defense was not horrible, but it was just kinda like the offense. Uninspired. I have more confidence in the offense moving forward in terms of growing and evolving. I believe we saw a pretty significant drop in coaching on that side of the ball. But, of course you get more than one year to prove yourself. Leonhard as a Co-DC was always a hard sell, especially after he was passed up for the job. When it sounded like he was staying for a minute, that seemed very surprising to me. As for Fickell, I haven't even thought about what it'd take for the Badgers to move on. It's a unique contract. It's 80% GTD. He's owed about 50M and the number increases every year(with probably ~250K in additional benefits such as car allowances, Golf club memberships). Things would have to be looking pretty bleak... But we have a good class coming in, Fickell won at Cincy, and I still have a lot of faith in him and Longo(though I imagine he'd be the first to leave if we do have a big year where the offense drives our success). What a transition year for Wisconsin Football. Badgers go to the spread, Packers trade Rodgers and they've upgraded on their QB and now have another HOFer(I'm not gonna put that in blue, I'm just going to speak it into truth).

Can you tell me the last player who's held out or forced his way out of an MLB team just because? This is NOT the NBA, this is not the NFL. If it were, most of the Braves lineup would likely be demanding trades or holding out. Ronald Acuna Jr would probably have an issue, and Corbin Burnes would have likely not just been speculated to have pouted(or maybe he did pout and I missed it, but heard about it) when he lost his arbitration case. I forgot, did he refuse to show up this year? And can we PLEASE stop saying "People wanted to sign Arcia." Sure. If you say so. Not like they want to sign Chourio. I WANT to sign Frelick, I WANT to sign Uribe, I wanted to sign Burnes/Woody early on(though pitching is a bit different). I'm still happy with the Peralta, and Ashby deals. I think it'd be a good idea to give Contreras a ~8/80 type extension. I can hold ALL those positions, believe that the Braves and Rays way of doing business is the smartest way...while STILL believing Chourio is a unique case and particularly important to get locked up early. Or, we can wait for a couple months to call him up(lose any chance to get draft pick compensation for him when he's in the ROY voting) or even worse, bring him up immediately and then lose him a year earlier because we don't pick up that service time. Then when he's 25 and JUST hitting the prime of his career, ala Ronald Acuna Jr, we can be having the conversation about trading him now for top 100 prospects or get a comp pick for him. The rumored deal, ESPECIALLY if there are team options...is such a no-brainer, I think any team in the league would do it.

Is this a serious comment? There have been threads for a YEAR now about the Brewers locking up the CF phenom whose statistical comparisons for age/level are guys like Griffey, Soto, and few others, the ELITE of the elite prospects. In the hypothetical, "your off-season," which started about halfway through the season I said I'd try and trade Yelich and sign Chourio(while explicitly stating I didn't think it would actually happen). That's JUST me. I know Brewcrew82 has advocated it and...probably 20 different people have talked about this as it's such an easy call. 4 players with 20/40 seasons as teenagers in the minors since 1960. Two of them at A-ball. Acuna Jr and Andruw Jones. Suggesting people haven't been talking about this for months(or actually quite a bit longer)...is just not remotely true.

Dude...I've seen your posts. I can tell when someone is making a genuine but ridiculous argument(Contreras should move to SS because his bat will help us more there, a comment nobody has actually made, but an example) or comparing a AAA Hiura who has no defensive value to the youngest player in AA last year. It's just a bad faith argument and little more. It's possible you do believe it...in which case, I've overestimated you.