BrewerFan

Let's just think about this for a second. We're going to trade Burnes, for a package built around a 24-year-old SS who is coming off a .712 OPS and at age 23...posted a .547 OPS and a .7 WAR(edit) and we're going to play him at 2B to replace our 23-year-old SS who posted a....585 OPS and a 1.6 WAR as a rookie? That's +.6 WAR from what rookie Turang produced for Corbin Burnes...? I'd roll the dice, hope that these other hitters coming up can produce and Turang can grow and develop into, if not a impact player, a nice complimentary player. I do believe Turang has the place discipline and bat-to-ball skills to be at least as good as '24 Perdomo. Edit-Perdomo actually put up a .7 WAR last year when he was 23 and a 2.2 WAR this year, his 3rd in the league vs Turang's 1.6 WAR.

Note to self; Scroll down so you can see two others have made the exact same point in a much more succinct manner idiot😁

Yeah, again, it's not a good example. Singleton wasn't a top 50 prospect. Find comparable talents to Chourio, then tell me which of THOSE players have failed. That'd be a more compelling case...because I'm struggling to see it. Bryan Buxton would be closer, but still not that guy(he was ranked that highly though). Using his stats in AA and AAA vs Hiura? Even at the MLB level. He was 18-19. Players who have done that are in a VERY rare group and Jon Singleton or Keston Hiura are not in that group. Hiura was a HS Sr/College freshman. Singleton was a 1B-only, limited athlete who at 21 was putting up a sub .700 OPS in the MiLB. I'd think the Nats would have loved to have locked up Soto before or very shortly after he was promoted. I think the bottom end of what Chourio will be is an elite OFer defensively who hits for power even if there's swing and miss. So a .250/.320/.520 type hitter who can play elite defense, the upside is...Acuna Jr. Though the Braves DID sign Acuna Jr after a ROY season, and we've seen elite prospects bust, so I get the trepidation and I see why you hold your opinion. I just think some guys, a very rare few are different and you see it before they play in the Big Leagues. If we had Jackson Holliday, I'd be arguing for the same thing. An elite SS such as him... Again, I suspect the Brewers will choose to go your route.

Right...I get what you're saying. Prospects crash. But there's a difference between Gomez, a top ~50 prospect(actually, never quite top 50) and even a Frelick/Hiura who were top ~25 vs a #1/2 type. I'd say in terms of prospect status this is more like when Trout, Harper and Matt Moore were 1-2-3 in varying orders. I mean, it's not like we're saying give this monster deal to Frelick, Quero(who I think is actually a bit underrated), Misiorowski... What Chourio has done at the high levels at the age he's at, PLUS his defense, speed, and all-around talent, it's not comparable to really anyone we've EVER had. It's unprecedented for our franchise(Yount went straight up in an entirely different era). I guess it'd be like Sheffield, but we all know his issues with the org. But that type of offensive production...as a 5 tool CFer? If you're not gonna pay this kid, you don't pay anyone. He's with Wander Franco, Julio Rodriguez, Griffey Jr, Soto...he's in a group of players where I really can't find someone who failed. Royce Lewis MAYBE? He was approximating that level of prospect before he had a couple of ACL injuries. There is ALWAYS a reason you can find to NOT give a big contract to a player. That's obvious. I think in this case, there are more arguments for a small-market Brewers team to pay him. Otherwise, you're forced to trade him at the point Acuna Jr is at right now...or when the Nats traded Soto. And while it's an incredible problem to have, I'd rather the Brewers have another homegrown talent who comes up with us, develops, and turns into an MVP-caliber player through his prime than...2-3 years of a 20-23-year-old star, then start the "when do we trade him and for how much," type trade discussions we've had with Hader, Burnes. I get the other perspective...and I really don't believe they do sign him before the season starts. MAYBE a shot that he signs 2 months in assuming a monster run in AAA knowing it'll now be 7 years before he's a FA, but...we'll see.

I don't think a Acuna Jr type contract would get it done...I think 10/150 2 option years plus escalators may get it done however. An MVP, GG, etc...and he gets significant incentives. It's risky for the team, but if you want a player like this hitting in the middle of your lineup from 20-30...this is probably what you'd have to do. The Acuna Jr deal though...next to the Albies deal, they were both viewed as bad deals for the players right away. Albies worse than Acuna Jr, but we'll see. I don't see the Brewers committing this type of money to a player this young, they'll want to wait until he's proven more...then usually they can see Free Agency coming like with Burnes and it's too late. BUT...we'll see. I'd love to see it and I think it'd make a lot of sense.

There's a huge chasm between a Hiura-type prospect(more like a Frelick in status) vs a Chourio/Acuna Jr/Holliday/Rodriguez-type prospect.

I just don't love the idea that because you haven't had bats, you use your pitchers to add bats moving forward. Feels like we've been addressing bats the last few years in the draft or in trades, adding young talent...now what we need to do is trade with a team that's got young pitching but doesn't want to wait for it to develop. Dodgers, Phils...there are obviously others. The Rangers(though.,.if you win the WS, you can get more patient with those young arms...or maybe you double down, I don't know).

I was learning that way even with Woody(but also happy to see them run it back as I can't be mad at a team trying to win). But Burnes, Adams, Williams...I'd look to trade, add controllable talent for '25.

Yes, Benkert actually provides context beyond, "what are they doing," and "Love sucks." That was bad. I heard this game was worse. I'm still taking Caleb Williams(he'll be a Bear or Cardinal( or maybe Drake Maye...zero chance on JJ McCarthy) if we can, otherwise, Fashanu, Alt...build the smart way. Now, you can also trade back up, add a pick in the ~15 range for another elite OT in this elite draft class.

Yes...and then extended him a year. The author is saying you don't want to go into a QBs final year with him NOT under contract further and that's...just silly.

No, you listed veterans who we'd save money on if we traded them(while omitting veterans who could be traded re; money saved in a trade). Everyone was talking about Douglas being on the trade block.

Don't buy that Rodgers played better because of Love. Also don't buy it's possible to know how good Love is with this slop he's playing with. And it's nobody in particular(I heard Walker had a poor game, but missed my first game in ~25 years Sunday).

Who are the "people" that "continue to discount YOUR argument for the importance of a "high-performing,"(not the same as figuring out if a QB is a HOF caliber QB his first year as a starter). Ok...if that's your question, I'd say it's a much better one than "is he a HOF caliber QB." Jalen Hurts just got them to a SB and was play away from winning one(he's not a HOF caliber QB in your mind). Brock Purdy is the QB of arguably the best team in the NFL right now. Jimmy G has been to multiple SBs. You're looking for an answer to a question...which has changed now, that's virtually impossible to answer at this point in a players career. Was Aaron Rodgers a "HOF caliber QB," after his 6-10 season? Finally...as I get ready to leave for the weekend, I'd recommend you read this entire thread and look at All22 if you're going to come to this conclusion one way or another based on the information we have at hand; It's far more than the one picture. Be back on Sunday/Monday.

And yet he's making 51M a year, was the highest paid QB ever when he signed his 250M+ deal. So...if he wins that SB, then he's a likely HOF QB? Is Russell Wilson? Because he was carried to the SB by his defenses. Well, I said nothing about being on a rookie deal and I don't think he's the best QB ever. That makes this nebulous "If he a HOF QB," a year into starting that much more of a moving target. Brady, also carried by his defense in his first couple SBs and they were paying Drew Bledsoe(I think he was the 2nd 100M dollar player in the NFL). So that kinda shoots down two points. I don't think this helps the "College stats" argument. He couldn't start over a string of non-NFL QBs like Cardale Jones, JT Barrett...then after 3 years(which was Love's entire career) he transferred to LSU has Chase, and Jefferson(arguably the top 2 WRers in the NFL right now) as well as Fournette...and he had one year in which he cracks your threshold. If that doesn't prove College States are totally useless in this context, I don't know what would.

If you click on it, it shows a LOT more than just this one play. It shows the Defense in Cover4 and the communication isn't there for the QB and WRer to run a quick out(Love looks like he's ready to throw, but they're just running into coverage). There are others as well. Certainly, some of it is Love's fault, but we thought we were giving him a lot of help and then Jones gets hurt in week 1, Bakh is done after 1, and Watson in and out. Musgrave has taken a couple of BIG shots leading to missed time.

Yes. No question. My only concern is the industry scrutiny on Acuna Jr and the Julio Rodriguez deal may make this worse, but each player is different. But yes, 100%. The only thing I'd do is go 8 years with 2 option years. 8/120, 2 option years at 25M. MVP, GG, HR Champ-type incentives that would increase his future salaries. I think this is almost always the way to go and they should be talking with Contreras right now(just signing a guy doesn't lock you into keeping him). Frelick, Uribe are others I would extend(at grossly different numbers). So I always like this idea. But it's different with a 19-year-old CF prospect who has produced like he has as he's climbed up to AAA before 20.

Is the "we'll see how they do in the big market," not ALWAYS levied at a Milwaukee Star...and when they end up in a big market, they almost always seem to be embraced and have success? I don't see a reasonable argument that Counsell can manage a bad team, but now when the really hard questions and higher expectations come, he'll just crumble. This isn't "Soup pitched well tonight," he's pretty open and upfront when it comes to his team's shortcomings and his own team's shortcomings. Why do we think Boone is fine in that regard, but Counsell will...what, collapse under the pressure? Seems unlikely.

Well...you're not breaking it to me, I'm saying Eli was NOT a HOF caliber QB, he'll get in because he won 2 SBs...but they didn't win 2 SBs because he was a great QB. Big Ben...perhaps, but it still took elite complimentary FB to get him to the SB and give them a chance and then they just kinda limped along the rest of his career. Matt Ryan's career will likely not be a HOF career due to a 28-3 lead lost. Brady for the last 4 SB wins and second half of his career, sure. Hurts I don't think is a HOF caliber QB. As for his College States, he started as a True Freshman, had an ELITE year as a Soph and then it's well documented what happened his 3rd year. Again, Joe Burrow failed in College save for one year. If Love's Soph year would have been his Jr, there wouldn't have been those "questions." Who is the ONE QB that to a fan, GM, coach...WR-Virtually EVERYONE in the NFL would take? Mahomes. Remember how bad the Buccs made Mahomes look in the Super Bowl? So I guess I'll just say I don't know how to quantify HOF caliber QB at this point in a career SAVE for the uber-rare Mahomes-type talents. Look at Jalen Hurts first 7 stats. They were every bit as bad as Love's and he had significantly bigger questions about his passing ability. I'm more concerned with if you can win a SB with this guy. And I've seen enough good things that I think you can-IF you've got the foundation in place. I'm not completely sold in that position, I still need to see more growth, but he also needs more help. That 40-yard backshoulder he threw to Doubs to start the 2nd half vs Denver was as good as ALMOST any throw Aaron Rodgers made. He beat Cover2 by not putting much under it and couldn't have walked it there better and it hit both hands and we couldn't come up with it. So what would Aaron Rodgers and the 6-10 Packers have been HIS first year without a good OL and then Jennings, Driver, established veteran recievers and instead a terrible OL and say Davante in year2, Nelson in yr 2, Driver in yr 2, pretty much every WRer we've had has taken a couple years to develop. And then referencing the Mahomes 31-9 loss in the Super Bowl, how can you reasonably expect Love to have success when you've got an awful OL...and I've been pounding this drum since Rodgers and Billy Turner's PFF grades, but he made them "grade higher," because they had much lower pass rush win/loss rates because he got the ball out so damn fast. Now we're throwing the ball downfield more than anyone with a weak OL. I did think this OL would be much better because we'd have our pass-blocking AP LT back, but we didn't. I just don't know if it's possible to determine if Love is that guy in a season where you've got poor OL play, can't run the ball(this entire offense is predicated off getting big plays off play action and nobody cares about PA when you can't run) and your #1 WRer is in and out of the lineup. Your PB RB is in and out, your TE, that shiny new weapon, he's been in and out. I agreed with moving off Rodgers, it was time, but I remember saying...Love's best years will probably look closer to Rodgers worst. I think it's possible we have unrealistic expectations and it'd be wise to let this play out through next year and try to develop this offense with-the-caveat that Williams is the guy you take irrespective of how you look the rest of the year and Maye is worth considering, but you only take those guys if they come to you, but this strategy of "If they're not HOF caliber, you move on," you end up being the Bears/.Browns. Really good QB play can win your SB and then those QBs become HOF caliber long after people dismissed them. Brees, Warner, Young, there's a lot that comes to mind. Now, I'm just never going to be compelled by the College Stats. It's a totally different game. https://www.si.com/nfl/packers/news/love-led-nation-in-ints-heres-why-to-not-worry

The Reds can still sign him for 250K without it counting against their pool, correct? So if they go over 250K, does that then get added to the previous years pool and then the penalties applied or would that count against their future pool? I was of the belief that you were just strictly limited to 250K, but I don't know that to be the case.

He had the best record in 1 run games ever...at least at one point this season. It was better than Earl Weaver. I think that's pretty telling. And he was consistently year over year well above the league average in that area. I'd say that argues he's a good manager. There aren't many that can quantify wins and losses. Bobby Cox the Cleveland manager Hargrove or Davey Johnson(but primarily Cox) kinda show the volatility in post-season Baseball IMO.

I'm not happy losing to Marquette...don't get it twisted, but once March comes, I'm pulling for Marquette...after Wisconsin obviously. I just...never got into the whole UW-Marquette thing.

It's just a respite from the real world. I have a little cousin with stage 4 bone cancer(2nd cousin actually, she was 5 when her father and my best friend died from the same type of cancer). I have a 1st cousin on the other side who has had open-heart surgery with 4 young kids(she's fine, it was planned, but it's still a significant issue and scary as hell). I love watching the Brewers, the Bucks, the Packers play well. I care, but...this whole, "he was never really one of us," or how he'd somehow be a dishonest person if he watched someone else manage the Brewers? LOL...that I could not care less about. And even when they lose, I generally feel number for a while and then I just think, "eh, this is gonna suck to hear about on Twitter." But this should all really be a part of your life, not a central focus of it.

I think Caminero can play SS, I just don't think they were planning on him playing there until the whole Franco thing happened. In any event, this is about the Brewers moves, so if it's Caminero, Mead, Williams...they're likely not trading for Adames, right? That feels like it's more the takeaway.

I think this is the best...run down of Jordan Love I've seen so far. I'll just say I flatly disagree with the premise that you have to decide on signing him by the end of this year. I'd rather wait until his final year or when he's due to be a FA than overpay him. But setting that aside...it's a good read; https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2023/10/25/23931156/jordan-love-green-bay-packers-offense-contract-dilemma

LOL...my apologies!