BrewerFan

This deal makes it SOO much more likely he's going to be in the opening-day lineup for several reasons. You're paying for Major League Service time anyway...so it's not like you can put him in the minors for 3 years and then you still have 10 years of him. Starting him in Milwaukee on opening day opens the door to getting a 1st rd draft pick in ROY compensation. With this deal, you don't have to wait 2 months to get that extra year, it's already in the contract. I also don't think you're rushing him at this point. He's proven himself. He spent a full year in AA last year and he was elite after they went back to the normal baseballs. You can certainly send him down if he struggles or whatever, but it'd be a little silly to not have him on the OD roster when you're literally encouraged to have players just like this...top 100 prospects who've hit in the upper levels...on OD rosters.

That was me(and I believe Brewcrew82) we were talking about Jackson Holliday and it was his FATHERS money, not his Brothers. And that was only half the equation, the other half was that he got an 8.2M dollar signing bonus last year. Your parents being wealthy at 19 years old while also having made a lot of money for yourself(more than Contreras has made thus far) versus your 31-year-old brother when you're 24 are two wildly different things. It's not at all the same. Yeah, they may pay for a vacation or they may do certain things for you(maybe even buy you a house)...but if you have the chance to make the SAME amount of money as him and be independently wealthy...you're most likely not going to pass that up because your brother has made money. It's entirely possible he'll choose to go year to year because he'll bet on himself, but I can't imagine he passes up a competitive deal because one of his brothers(he's got at least one other who didn't make it in MLB, so he has both examples to draw from) made it big.

Yeah, I've seen trending topics about conspiracies and the refs related to Gambling, but I refuse to even entertain that. It's ridiculous. Gambling is going to have to get SOOOO much bigger for the NFL to be willing to put a 20B a year industry at risk. The refs aren't full time and really aren't paid that well given the league's revenue and their importance. They're also losing important refs to the booth where they get paid more(that's probably a smaller number, but still good refs).

I did not know that...so I was only correct on accident😂 I guess it probably doesn't come up very often. I think they'll be fine with their roster construction. They're dropping a LOT of dead cap in '24 and or inflated salaries like Clark(who they may want to extend, but not at ~28M AAV). Dougas, Savage and Bakh already account for ~32M in dead cap. I'd assume Jones will take a pay cut from his 11M base, but he's still got ~12M in dead cap hit(6 or 7 in void years for '25). Nixon has ~2.6M in dead cap after this year. Preston Smith is probably next up. He's still a very good player and it's only a minimal savings next year, but moving off it is probably a good idea. Depending on the draft, Campbell may be another guy you want to move off despite not saving a lot. In both cases, you'd probably only do it if you could get a draft pick back. Otherwise, you're saving ~3M and paying them 12-13M to not play, but there's some incentive for teams to trade for them as each has low base salaries. But I think we're pretty close to being flush with cap space again...and that should line up juuust with Tom and the young guys that'll need to be paid. Ideally, you'll need to pay a whole lot of them. Whatever they do with the cap, whoever they sign(I'd like one Christian Wilkins in FA and one Joe Alt in the draft...and I'll get neither)...the Packer's future has gotten a whole lot brighter in just one month!

I don't think he's here trolling, I just don't think it's as balanced as he thinks it is. The PCA question is a very good one. How concerned are we about him? I think the kid looks like a stud, but you can certainly pick apart the same issues. But for me, the big thing is, Black was NEVER supposed to be a #4-5 type hitter. Maybe top end #3, more likely a #2 if he develops as expected. And there's really no reason he shouldn't hit 15-20. Especially playing half his games at Miller Park. Let's say though, for the sake of argument, he does "only" hit 10. If he's got a 65 bat, and he walks like he has, that's almost ideal for a #2 hitter. I don't think using Frelick or Turang helps his argument about Black or with regard to his bias or lack thereof. They were both rookies and we all compared Frelick to Kwann. Not a power threat.

Ok....I'm not arguing if his upside is 20 HRs or 10. I think the 18 HRs last year, his first full healthy year in the minors would suggest it's more than 10, but regardless...so what? You're presenting this argument as though his strongest tool was his power and now that's all thrown into question. That was NEVER his calling card, nor the reason he was a top 50 prospect. It was his bat-to-ball skills, his ~16% BB rate, his lower K rate, and his speed. He's not a Wilken-type prospect. Never was. And I find the Ruiz comparison absurdly disingenuous. That you're comparing his ability to get on base with that of Black shows a narrative you're trying to present rather than a subjective analysis.

I don't find 142 ABs in AAA where he progressively got better to be that compelling. Ahh...again, should have scrolled down instead of going straight to the notifications.

35.8% GB, 43.4% FB rate last year for Bellinger, 43.6% pull side. Black in AA last year(where he got most of his ABs); 37.0% GB 43.2% FB with 40.8% pull side(his pull side was actually higher in AAA at 41.7%). Not that I think anyone's expecting him to match Bellinger's power number of hit 47 HRs in ANY year, but you're taking 142 ABs...after a late-season promotion to AAA. So this just seems a bit silly. ANY hope for power from a guy who we don't expect a ton of power from(I think 15-20 is pretty reasonable) is pretty much gone because of a small sample size in AAA while ignoring AA? Just seems like a questionable narrative.

That's fine. I'm sure the contract will reflect that and he had pretty good stuff. Looks like it'll be a depth signing. Spent the last two years rehabbing, made it back and now should be healthy. And if he's not, it's not like this will be crippling.

I can't imagine NFL refs making that call. That'd have been worse than the Fail Marry by a pretty wide margin. There's always bumping, shoving and OPI, DPI on Hail Marrys. Unless you have every defender tacklke the offensive player they're guarding, it's a no-call. On that Hail Marry though, I would have liked to see 5 rushing. I'm putting Gary, Clark, Wyatt, Van Ness and then Walker in there as a spy who triggers as soon as Mahomes leaves the pocket. We've seen it with the Packers and Rodgers. You give them a much worse chance rushing three and letting the QB dictate where he's gonna throw the ball and be comfortable throwing the ball. BUT...that's nit picking(like KC fans who are whinning about the loss and blaming the refs).

Yeah...that's obviously true in the NFL. They could easily lose next week vs the Giants(especially with that inside pass rush). But the Panthers, Bears, Vikings sans Cousins, and TB...it's going to be a huge failure if they fall short of 10 wins IMO. As high as they're flying right now, they'll be that low if they lose more than 2 of the next 5. It's just insane that the team we saw vs the Vikings or the Lions early in the year...is now in a position to win 10 games(and IF you were to go game to game, would be favored in all 5).

LOL...yeah, I think he gets an extension. I'm not sure the fact that he beat Mahomes is going to be the driving force(may not even be that notable by the end of the year). I'd be shocked if they do it in-season though. There's just no reason to. You'd be rushing it. Love has a chance to run off 5 straight here(I doubt he will, but I certainly think he can run off 4 of 5 and get in). That AAV just continues to go up though. By the end of the year it may be around 50M....which would suck, but that's the price of having a good QB. And you can structure it so the cap hit is minimal next year, then they get clear of Bakh and Clark's deals(not that I want to be clear of Clark, I just don't think his future cap hits will be near 28M). I think the narrative on Gutekunst is also changing quite a bit. The young guys who are playing well, the late-round picks like Tom, Enagbare, Slaton, Valentine, Wicks, Carlson, Brooks, Wooden, Walker is a hit for a 7th. Still don't think he's the future LT, but at least a good swing tackle(and I think he'll end up being a really good OG). Things are really coming into view now. I'd still LOVE to see the Packers go and really get aggressive, move up for Joe Alt. I'd go 1st+2 2nds for say the 6th pick+a 4th, doubt they do it, so maybe a guy like Fuaga, a mauler in the run game and an extremely high ceiling, move Tom to RT and maybe Meyers is figuring it out? I don't know, but KC brings a LOT of pressure and the Packers just looked SO much better last night picking it up. Rhyan got whipped vs Jones, but everyone does at times. FUTURE'S LOOKING BRIGHT! And that Van Ness kid doesn't look like a slouch either.

I don't remember when Collinsworth first started. If you said it was 1995 or 2005, I'd believe you. I remember his notoriously bad take about Aaron Rodgers("you're not gonna win a lot of games with this guy as your starting QB," vs the Cowboys when he came in). Aikman, I've definitely heard the "this is how we used to do it," but I don't know if that's a bad thing(or a good thing). I enjoy watching or listening to Manning talk about things like that, but that's in a much less formal setting. I also think some guys have their favorites because they said things on air and now they want to be proven right. Almost like Skip. Dan Orlovsky with Wentz for instance(dude still insists he's a REALLY good QB). I'll just qualify this by saying I don't always listen that closely during the games and I can tune them out, but I always got the impression that the Packers were one of those teams that the announcers raised(especially Rodgers/Adams) and other fan bases hated them for that. Just like the the NFCN teams with the refs. If Rodgers was the QB, they'd be saying "the refs wanted Rodgers to get the W." Setting that all aside, last night end of the game, there were 3 controversial calls and the guys in the booth, plus the referee all had the same opinion. They were emphatic about the unsportsmanlike conduct on the Mahomes hit being a bad call. The MVS play was CLEAR DPI. And then the Hail Marry, that was pretty egregious as well, but they said it's rare you call those. I think those were all certainly accurate takes.

And the throw to MVS where he threw it behind him and low WAS perfect placement. It was zone and there was a safety(Owens IIRC) who came up and was right there as the ball got there. I also thought the comparison he made to Rodgers and Favre was the ability to get the ball out quickly and he was in general pretty effusive in his praise for Love, said the Packers would make the playoffs and the late hit isn't reviewable, he disagreed with it and the DPI late in the game on MVS was blatant and he pointed that out. I thought he did a pretty good job of calling a fair game last night with the caveat that the star QB gets a massive amount of praise(there are meme's of Collinsworth praising Rodgers later in his career after saying, "You won't win many games with Aaron Rodgers as your starting QB," a few snaps into the Cowboys games he came into). I think every fan base thinks the announcers hate their team and love the other team.

Because...in 173 PAs in AAA, his exit velo was similar to two rookies the Brewers had last year who didn't hit for a lot of power in their rookie season, ANY hope you had Black will hit for power, "these data run into them like a fist into a kidney!" Ok...maybe trying a bit hard to go for the dramatic line here. .307/.356/.525- Cody Bellinger's EV last year over ~560 ABs, 87.9 Not over a partial season in AAA, but over a whole MLB season. ...this is silly. Also, not sure anyone believes Black is going to be this big power-hitting corner IFer. He's not expected to be the next Pete Alonso. The kid did steal 55 bags last year while carrying an OBP of ~.420. So his value doesn't lie exclusively with his power(he's got a 40 power grade and the hope was he'd hit for 15-20 HRs). But the inference that ANY hope that he'll 'hit for power,' is just devastated by this? It's kinda silly on multiple levels. Small sample size and comparing him to two other rookies for the Brewers last year(one who also had a pretty small sample size) and neither of whom have really ever hit for power. But to be clear, the "problem," he's creating for the Brewers...the team that was playing Monasterio and Anderson at 3B last year...is that he may not hit for a lot of power(or I guess definitely won't based on the article)? I'll be alright if he hits .260/.350/.375. That'll be just fine for a rookie 3B.

Screw the talk about the DPI. How about the terrible 15 yards they gave to KC on the hit on Mahomes when he was clearly in bounds. Love was outstanding. He's proving he's a legit NLF QB that can be great at times and better yet, still has room to grow. Watson's injury is the one cloud over this win, but damn, what a turnaround. And with the cupcake schedule they have left...Chicago, Carolina, TB, Minny and the Giants...10 wins is not only reasonable, but it should be expected at this point. Jones, Jaire coming back. This front is looking great. From looking hapless and not scoring 20 to putting up more points on KC than anyone and Love coming back and facing the same team and scheme that made him look bad his first start, going for 3 TDs, no turnovers, making the right call over and over. Even the sack he took at the end. Didn't throw the ball away, throw it up. Tried to dip under, when he couldn't, lurched forward for what he could. Man, what a turnaround. We're not a "contender," but we've got a shot at having a REALLY good QB.

I mean...high leverage relievers are never redundant, especially not when their top reliever is out for next year. They're a 100-win team with the most young talent in the league. You need a dominant Pen to win it usually. I'll gladly go Williams and Burnes for the right package.

I'm not minding this deal myself. For all the talk about Burnes no longer being viewed as an ace, and his return being smaller than anticipated, this should disabuse people of that notion.

I grew up a big FSU fan, so I'd like to see them in, but the committee's goal is to get the 4 best teams in. I don't believe most genuinely believe they are one of the best 4 teams at this point. As for OSU...I don't know if they have a much stronger case than the team that won the SEC beating a team that had won...what, 45 of it's last 46 and the last two NCs. But it's also not the same powerhouse SEC programs, so it's going to be interesting to see what they decide. It'll be hard to fault them if they go with FSU, 'Bama, Texas. It's a rare year where there isn't a truly dominant team. UGA has been #1 almost all year and they've lost a ton of talent the last couple years. 'Bama really came on with their QB, but they really should be out of it if Auburn didn't rush 2 on 4th and ~30 to win the game vs Auburn. There will be people upset no matter what direction they go. This would probably be the perfect year for 8 teams as I really think the top ~8 could win...save for FSU due to Jordan Travis.

They beat LSU as well as Duke and Louisville. So...three, but they beat the first couple with Travis at QB. They're a very different team without him. I think they're a very worthy team...IF they have Travis, but they don't. How does UGA stay in and 'Bama get knocked out?

Well...you got your dream, but I can't see FSU being one of the top 4 teams. Their offense is so bad. I also don't think the SEC is getting two in. I think it's a tough argument to get one in this year. Michigan and Washington are locks. UT should be I think...and then I would say 'Bama...but they're not all that impressive this year. Michigan appears to be the favorite, but this is going to be a year where none of the games are obvious locks. It should make for a more entertaining CFP.

The hell it wasn't. This was a huge topic of conversation. I probably posted about it...25-30 times and that was hardly rare. That was easily the consensus. Sign Chourio to a long-term deal. It's in pretty much everything. The "your off-season thread," threads about Yelich. It was a regular topic on here. I'll take your word for it that you didn't see it...somehow, but take mine that we absolutely were talking about it and hoping for it(and this exceeds expectations).

Yeah, but he was slow for an NFL back. He was slow...and that's after he lost ~20 pounds going off the NFL combine score. The "did he get more carries because he was the 11th pick," isn't something that can be answered objectively, but it stands to reason they gave the 11th overall pick carries...because he was the 11th overall pick. Of course they matter. But over 228 carries(Barber, who BTW had 213 carries at 4.7 yards and nearly 1,000 yards more in total, but ~235 more rushing yards) unless you're saying Dayne was just a short-yardage back(Which doesn't seem consistent with the 228 carries) that's a hard argument to make. Those aren't all short yardage. It's also a very inconsistent stat. The 2nd year in the league, Dayne had a 38.9 success % and Barber a 47%. That's a pretty big difference. Yet AGAIN this year Dayne got more carries(which would seem to support the "he got more carries as the 11th overall pick," narrative). Again, they each had 200+ carries. They weren't ABLE to use Dayne the same way they used Barber. They were able to do everything with Barber, not so much with Dayne.

Wisconsin has had two wildly different teams. One that's hitting open shots, playing with energy, moving. The other that's just flat and plays the same ugly style of basketball, but plays it sloppy. Marquette should win by 10 on talent, but this series seems like the better team seldom plays to expectations. I'm looking forward to it. I know I'm meant to hate Marquette but I don't. I like watching them play.

That's a bit of an odd assumption. Counting his brother's money as a deterrent? That's a HUGE assumption that he'd risk holding his hand out to his brother rather than just...make his own money. And yes, I think he'd be asking for a good amount. 8/80 is a good amount 4 years away from FA. That's a baseline. Maybe it is 7/80 with 2 TOs or whatever, but it'd be unrealistic of him to think he'd beat Murphy's deal. Finally, yes, you're ALWAYS going to be giving up FA years. There is zero reason for any team to commit this type of money to a player just to ensure they get their money through arbitration. The FA years are the only reason you consider giving ~80M to any player.