BrewerFan

Uribe. A 17 year old who's already got a big fastball and it looks like he's got the stuff to be a TOR type pitcher moving forward, or an elite high leverage reliever. But I'm definitely looking for high ceiling arms back. With Uribe, you're talking about a 17 year old kid in rookie ball, so if he's a star, 3 years away in a best case scenario, likely 5 years away from being a potential MLB starter. I'm not sure TB is the best option. I like Texas. I'd be willing to give up Williams if you could get Porter and Lieter back. I'm completely of the opposite mindset that if you trade Burnes, you need to get hitters back. We've got hitters coming up. We've got 3 top ~70 position prospects in AA or above and I think Tyler Black should be close to the top 100. The Brewers have been competitive, even the last few years despite just terrible offensive production. I keep going back to what that OF could look like with Chourio/Frelick/Wiemer and then Mitchell, Yelly(part time DH maybe depending on platoon splits) and Rodriguez looks like the ideal 4th OFer(or 5th/6th depending on Mitchell). Black, Quero, Turang, 4 picks in the top...what, ~87 this year. Give me a couple of high end AA arms with that type of TOR type potential. I think saying, "I just want MLB ready bats back for Burnes," is reactionary and the result of understandable frustration, but we have so much talent coming up. I mean, I could be sold on a guy like Manzardo...though to be honest, I don't think he's going to be a HUGE difference from Black...who ends up at 3B in a perfect world, possibly 2B, but I think likely 1B. Get pitching and keep investing on the bats on the international FA market. That's the most sustainable way to win. 2025 you could have Misiorowski Porter Lieter Peralta Ashby Gasser Uribe CL....that seems more the Tampa Bay model than just loading up on bats and hoping you can find pitching and develop it elsewhere.

It is kinda funny in every sport now when a recruit flips, it's "must have paid him...offered him a bigger NIL deal." VERY few of these guys are getting NIL and even among those who do, it's the vast minority. UCLA is a fun school and if you're an athlete, I certainly get the appeal. Get out of your comfort zone. Plus, we've got transfers now, so a kid can make this decision knowing if it's not what he thinks or what he wants, he can leave in a year or two. I loved my time in school, but a little bit of me wishes I'd have considered most seriously going out of state.

It's not a play calling issue of a schematic issue, it's players who have traditionally been good hitters, Adames, Winker, Tellez, Urias, all struggling. Add to that the injuries to the staff... The team plays loose, they're aggressive. I don't think the message has gotten stale. I think those players start pressing and it just builds on itself. But I don't think changing managers does anything. We've focused on a different type of position player the last 3-5 years and we're on the precipice of seeing those efforts come to fruition, but you can't blame the manager when you have good hitters just not hitting and then you planned for some players to be average or worse.

I see that, he just doesn't strike me as the type who's going to change his approach. He plays with a reckless abandon that's great to see, but he's also improved on how selective he is(still not quite at that magic 10% BB rate). Maybe there's less pressure. I'm shocked Yelich is hitting as well as he is and this team is still struggling. Still have some level of faith Winker, Adames, Tellez and then hopefully Frelick, Hiura can help this team. Maybe even black if he gets bumped to AAA and he produces as I think he's capable of. Throw in a Grichuck, Turang down the stretch with the glove and on the base paths...I see a pathway for this team to get hot at the right time yet....albeit a very narrow one, one that includes Burnes throwing like a Cy Young winner again, Woody coming back and solidifying that BP. But that's a whole lot of wishing. Yelich is 3rd in Exit Velo this past month, Wiemer 7th and the later has a .260 BABIP. Call me an eternal optimist... Or maybe the Baltimore Orioles get an ace and we get a 6'5 3B prospect. We'll see.

Right, I just thought maybe someone had a bit more. I understand why it's the rare exception you'd spend on a 16 year old arm. HS prep arms are risky enough, but this is like drafting a Soph based on how you scouted him as a Freshmen. I would like to see the Brewers target a few high ceiling arms in this upcoming draft. College arms are unlikely to fall(those with the upside we're targeting). Waldrep, Sykora...a College arm and a prep arm would be ideal if they fell. See if we can finally get the pitching and hitting to lineup. Side note-Anyone see the suggestion on how the Yankees should "break the MLB draft?" In this loaded class, just go all in, don't worry about the bonus pool. The theory being, take a team with a relatively small pool, one that won't likely be picking high the next 2 years(which would lessen the value)...take a draft that's considered deep(this being one of the deeper ones) and then just take those high end prospects who drop. Spending 20M, you lose your 1st and 2nds the next 2 years, but you get that elite talent in your system quicker, you just take BPA. Pay the penalty and just load up. It's an interesting idea. Not one I'd advocate for the Brewers. One, they have a large pool, 2, they could very likely be picking top 10 in either of the next two years(particularly with the new lottery). Anyway, interesting idea...probably the wrong place to put it.

You think there's a strong correlation between Wiemer hitting 9th an 6th? He's a streaky hitter. I don't think it's much more than that. He's hit 8th or 9th the vast majority of the time with 1 start hitting 2nd, 1 hitting 5th, 4 hitting 7th and then...8th or 9th. I think hitting him 5th or 6th vs lefties and then dropping him back down vs righties would be fine. The bigger issue is he's still just developing. I think one of the best things for his personnel development is given everyday in CF. Knowing he's going to start if he has an 0-4. That's more important than where he is in the lineup.

It's easy enough to spot the young international signings who are position players who have plus tools in one area or another...or who are just producing, but what about the young arms? Who should we be watching in the DSL or Rookie ball? Are do we just have guys with some feel for pitching and given the longshot it is to hit on a pitcher, are we just adding guys hoping that we find someone who may have some growth left, who may add 3-4+ MPH and become something to be excited about? Remind me about Wily Peralta? I don't think we signed him throwing in the upper 90s, so when did his velo tick up?

It can also actually save you some money. The Bucks picked the Kalaitzakis on a partially GTD deal to limit their salary cap liability. They actully cost less than an UDFA or a vet minimum...but if has to be a 3 year partially GTD deal, so you have to take some money from the MLE or Bi-Annual as they did with Kalaitzakis. But he cost them roughly 900K. That's the cheapest you can sign a player to. So when you're getting hit with 4.25M for every million you're over, plus now you have that 2nd apron to deal with, you're hoping the players will become something, but it also makes more sense. I do think they targeted both of these players. It's easier to see how they work on a team like Boston or GSW or any team who's best player is also a shooter(Pho another example). But they have...some plan. I can't really see what it is at this point other than just running it back and hoping Middleton and Lopez sign for a little less, but, we'll see).

Jackson was mocked from last 1st down to 40. Even in last years way too early...he was mocked to the Bucks at ~37 IIRC. He's not a scorer. He sounds like if everything goes right just a glue guy who makes everyone better. But I don't think they're even really really hoping he becomes a 35% 3 point shooter or a reliable scorer. It sounds like pretty much nobody does. Horst talked about how they're changing the way they're going to play and they need players for that and he was a perfect fit. Sounds like they have much higher hopes for Livingston, but at least both are big, physical players who you could probably play as PFs if you went with a smaller lineup and they can switch on just about everything. I don't think it'd impact Lopez(these two picks certainly shouldn't) but Horst also talked about switching. If Houston gets ridiculous and is offering Lopez 20M a year for 3 or the Lakers do, maybe they're planning on playing a different style. Still thinking he's coming back, but hypothetically, you have Jrue, Beauchamp, Middleton, Jackson and Giannis, you can switch and Tatum/Brown aren't going to tear you up. Plus, we've been a good shooting 3 point team for a couple years, we get to the playoffs and it falls apart and we have Middleton who can shoot(and that's hit or miss) and then usually one other player. Hill, Brogdon, maybe Connaughton another series or Lopez part of another. So unless they pull off some trade for some dynamic 3 point shooter, they're probably thinking a great passing, lock down defender who's athletic and can play that dunkers spot right away, he has some value. It's not exciting, but they did with their title on the strength of their defense more than anything.

I've seen numerous executives throwing out 4/130 as a likely contract for Middleton. That...feels light, but assuming that's correct, you could start him out this year at ~29M or so. That'd be ideal. In that event, you could sign Lopez for the 3/54, bring Ingles back at 7.7(which I think is pretty important given his playmaking and shooting). Then fill out with basically minimum salary contracts and you're still under that 2nd apron by like 2M. You sign a player with the TPMLE and you lose the ability to make trades with multiple players or sign and trades or maybe as importantly, pick up players on the buyout market(not that this has yielded much fruit for the Bucks the last couple years, but there are generally a couple of valuable players each year who move teams). I like the picks from last night though. It suggests to me that the Bucks really valued a guy who was an outstanding passer, defender, high energy player...basically a guy who's about as close as a match for Draymond Green as a prospect as you can get. It would lead you to believe the offensive plan won't simply be drive and kick. Livingston on the other hand, I think he is like a young Euro stash type player. 5 star recruit, likely going back to Kentucky to be the center point of that team, but they got a promise from the Bucks. And what I REALLY love is that Rich Paul and he called other teams and said, "please do not select Livingston, we have a team we'd like to go to." Now if he was some stud, teams are going to laugh that off and make the move anyway, but it at least suggests he wanted to be here, we really wanted him here and he's actually got a very high upside. I guess this draft could help the Bucks even next year IF they play the Celtics and IF they run plays offensively and move the ball. You have more big, athletic bodies who can defend Tatum and Brown. Other than that...it's hard for a 2nd round pick to really move the needle much.

Yelich isn't exactly post-roids Bonds(or Pre-Roids Bonds for that matter) and he's drawing walks. This idea that if you're not going to walk if you don't hit for power, there's plenty of players who still draw walks. But he also has great speed and if they're going to throw the ball over the plate and pitch to him like he can't hurt them, then I'm sure he'll hit just fine. You're also taking Kwan who's just a *loose comp for Frelick, a guy who put up 5.5 WAR as a rookie and using 74 games that includes a prolonged slump in May through June? Kwan also had a line of ,.173/.271/.253 last May and had a sub ,700 OPS last year around this time. That's AFTER he had a .354/.459/.500 March/April with a .960 OPS. So you're taking Kwan, who was never the prospect Frelick is/was, taking him after a very successful rookie year and now after a slump less than halfway into his second year and using that as evidence of why Frelick is a bottom of the order hitter? This despite being the 21st prospect and a .322/.400/465 line as he moved quickly in the minors. That seems like an unreachably high bar for incoming prospects.

I certainly get the argument for Robert Jr. He could be a legit MVP candidate if he stays healthy and he's just 25 years old...he's a great player and he could still move to left with the CFers we've got coming up. It makes sense, but I like Frelick, Black and Gasser. But if you're going to trade Frelick, that's the type of player you go after. It's the Frelick for Soler type trades I take issue with(though the poster thought it was a team option, not a player option, so the proposal was for 1.5 years of control). Or just generally throwing him out there because we have a lot of OFers. If they went with your trade, I'd be able get on board real quick. If they did it so they could get someone who just lines up with Burnes/Woody...I wouldn't. As for Frelick in LF, I see it as a plus. If you have Chourio and Weimer at the other two spots, I think that's a defense with a lot of power and Frelick fits into that lineup perfectly. I just don't put as big of a priority on positional production. If you put Frelick in CF and Wiemer in LF(assuming Wiemer develops and can hit ~.250 with power, walk 10% or more) does that make a difference? Plus with Frelick in LF, you have CF caliber defense. That's an OF that's going to get to a LOT of fly balls.

Well, Burnes is a unique case, but maybe there's something to that. It still just seems like an issue that's much more unique to the Brewers. Just about every team below .500 has a FA to be who's crushing LHPing. Teoscar Hernandez is another guy. I'm sure Seattle's not gonna move him anytime soon, but if they get to the ASB and they're not within 5-6 games, I'd think they'd be willing to move him. I'd be on the phone with the Rockies right now asking about Grichuk. Is it the 9.3M? Without doing the math, that's gotta be about ~5.5M left? It can't be prohibitive. And he's hitting RHPing well also. Of course you have to adjust for Coors, but he's got a history of being a good, solid player. The only real reason I can think they're not making moves is they value their high end prospects too much(clearly not worth one of the top 10 and then we have a VERY young system with so many LA players coming through who are 18-20 and you there's so much projection with those guys...we just don't have many players who are close to the big leagues who have value. Still, the Rockies owe us. The way they gave away Arenado AND paid 80M of his salary, the least they can do is send Grichuck our way1

Yes, I understand this is a team with a lot of highly rated OF prospects, but Frelick epitomizes everything the Brewers have been trying to draft and develop in their farm system. Elite defense, particularly if he ends up in LF(which is where I think he ends up). Elite bat to ball skills. Speed, draws walks. Only player in the system with a 60 hit tool. Yet I see him thrown around in trades for a rental(or even if Soler had a TO for next year, it still wouldn't make sense to me). I don't think you move a guy like Frelick, a prototypical leadoff hitter who hit .365/.435/.508 with a ridiculously low K rate and actually hit for some power at AAA his 2nd year out of college unless it's in a rare trade where you get back a player with several years of team control. Otherwise he feels like a piece who fits perfectly with Chourio, Quero, Wiemer, Black and Mitchell...who I'm not quite as sold on, but he does have a very high ceiling. Put a couple of those high OB in front of Chourio, fill out the lineup with guys who have speed, good hit tools and I see a much more complete lineup in the coming years(obviously we still have to add more higher upside arms). I'd much rather make smaller moves to try and address this teams needs like Grichuk, Turner, rentals who align with our issues vs LHP'ing, hoping that's enough. As long as they keep developing players like Lara, Guillarte, the 3 guys from the '22 Jan signing period who look like they're off to good starts All that to say, I think a more conservative approach at this deadline would be smarter than what I view as a panic move to try and win this year before you have to start breaking up part of that rotation and...I guess Willy, though he's really tanking his own value at this point.

Are people suddenly down on Frelick? He was a mid 1st round pick who hasn't missed a beat until a little injury this year. I'm not trading him for half of a year or just about anyone. I think a more reasonable and cost effective target would be a guy like Randal Grichuk. Lane Thomas from Washington or Candelario who can play some 3B. Jake Berger from the CHW is a long shot...a guy who was pretty highly touted and missed a lot of time, but an outstanding hitter and still just 27. That one is probably a stretch given what they've stuck through with him, but he could play some 3B, DH and possibly be the future 1B? That'd cost more than they probably want to give up but maybe you take back a guy like Lynn if you think you can set him back on track. The later is again a long shot, but no reason they can't make a move for a guy like Grichuk right now. Allow Yelich to DH vs some lefties or...just sit once in a while.(I don't get why they move him down to 3rd in the lineup). He should come cheap, And maybe you try and bolster the BP at the same time. I don't think they need Robert Jr or Jose Ramirez...and I don't think either are realistic, but some veteran RHHers who are going to be FAs or in front of much better prospects? Doesn't seem like it should be that difficult.

No...I'm not going that high for Robert either. We've been trying find hitters who can get on base and make contact and Frelick is now a top ~25 prospect. Black walks a ton, has good power and I think he can handle 3rd...and Gasser is one of the only starting pitching prospects we've got who are ready and look like they're more than just innings eaters. Robert Jr is great, but that's a lot for a player who's yet to play 100 games. It's probably a realistic asking price, but sets the Brewers back.

It REALLY shouldn't be this hard to find a RHed hitter with platoon splits for LHPers.

It's the MLB draft. About half the players never make it to the big leagues.(Edit-Just among 2nd round picks) About half of those who do end up with a negative WAR or a WAR around 1. In a given year there may be a...Joey Votto, JJ Hardy, Dan Haren, but they're few and far between. Using their history of 2nd round picks over the last 20 years just tells me they've probably done better than average. I'd also consider Tyler Black or the competitive balance picks after Rd1 as 2nd round picks. What team DOESN'T have misses like that? A normal 2nd round might have 2 players with 10+ career WAR, 2-3 more with ~5 or so, half the round never makes it and another and the rest are Blake Perkins type players. Just replacement level players. You're just throwing darts at a VERY small board. Even in the 1st round, you're projecting years out. The miss rate is enormous.

Yes...and attendance is up 24% this year. It's up around MLB 6%. I'd say more people have started to come back to Baltimore in particular. This is why I like actually reading the articles rather than paraphrasing. They said they'd like to emulate the Rays, Brewers, Guardians. I think most teams are trying to do that by developing players. It's why the Dodgers went and poached the Rays GM and went on the best run(record wise) in franchise History. As for the 120M dollar figure, Ownership also stated this past off-season they expected to ramp up spending in the coming years and will be in the "top half of the league." That would put them at 180M. I don't know if they get there(it wouldn't be out of the norm for them when competitive). But 120M is a...an oddly low number for a team that has consistently lowered salary when rebuilding and then ramped back up when competitive going back to the last 40+ years(and again...blown past it just a few years ago). https://calltothepen.com/2023/01/21/baltimore-orioles-looking-increase-payroll-coming-years/

I'm not sure what that means without more context, but they've been in the ~140-160 range recently(4-5 years ago). Heck, they had a higher payroll 25 years ago. I'm not saying they'll be the Mets, but with all the young talent they have, I'd be surprised if they're not around league average in the next couple years. That'd give them nearly 100M to add. If it's 130 or 160 exactly, they'll be able to spend a lot more money than they have been.

I don't remember it the same way, but those mocks are also totally meaningless. The way I remember it, the consensus was that he'd go after teammate and fellow IOL Wyatt Davis and Humphrey was as high as the 1st. Davis was picked right after Amari Rodgers and was even worse than Rodgers was. The lateral quickness is the most important thing for a center. If you can't get to your man, you let him cross your face, that blows up the whole play in the Packers scheme. So I think that's an argument for him playing Guard. I get wanting a big physical Travis Frederick type Center, but they have to be able to consistently make that 1st block. Getting to the LBers is important, but obviously making the play at the point is the priority. They know what they're doing just fine though. Even if Tom plays Guard this year, I'd be surprised if that's his future position. His career may very well lineup with Bahtiari's. If you move off him after this year, Tom I think has shown he can be a LT. Otherwise, Nijman is also a FA after this year. I think he'll end up outside at some point. Maybe that plays into this. They may not want to spend the time making him a full-time center if they plan on moving him next year. Not using a single pick on the OL this year is also probably an indication the Packers feel very good about their young OL(though Gutey did specifically say the OL they liked were gone by 13, so at least Johnson and Skoronski and perhaps Wright).

Beal was given a choice...due to the no-trade. Bucks made a sales pitch. Beal turned down Milwaukee, Miami and Sacramento(a little sleeper). In terms of just professional success, seems like the Bucks would have been the best fit. Lopez/Giannis/Middleton/Beauchamp/Beal? There's a LOT of open shots for him. Not that he'll struggle with KD and Book, but they don't create the same type of open catch and shoot 3s that Giannis does. Seems like that's just the Brooklyn Nets again without the depth they had...which compared to the Suns is a significant difference. Just to cement that point a bit;

Hall is exactly the type of guy I'd like to see the Brewers go after. They've had success with pitchers with elite stuff who struggle with walks(and the O's conversely have had virtually zero success with those types of arms). Not Hall alone of course, but I trust the Brewers ability to develop pitching. I also think Baltimore is going to be spending. They go through circles where their payroll is ridiculously small, then they ramp it back up into middle market type range. I also thought they'd spend this past year. One thing they haven't done in what feels like forever is develop their own pitching. They get prospects who are rated in the top 5-10-20, but they seldom seem to hit. From Arrietta and Gausman who thrived elsewhere to guys like Tillman and Matusz who were both top 5 overall prospects who never hit. Still, seems like it'd make more sense for them to flip a guy like Holliday for a pitcher like...Bobby Miller(just an example). A trade like the Twins-Marlins made.

Well, even if we take the standard after the fact athlete speak, if Rodgers didn't know, his closest confidant on the team, then it stands to reason the front office didn't know....which was the whole point. Of course the fact that he was still negotiating with the Packers would also suggest they didn't know he was done in GB. But I don't buy Adams had his mind made up before the tag anymore than I believe that Adams had been plotting his exit from Green Bay to play with Derek Carr(as David Carr said) or that he believed Derek Carr was a HOF QB. We all know Adams was upset he wasn't extended a year earlier. That's common. It's also common for players to openly complain and then re-sign...and you could come up with a massive list of players who'd fit into that. From Lamar to Deebo, it happens every year.

An ideal draft? 4-5 pitchers who throw in the upper 90s with high spin rates and very high ceilings. Better yet, College arms. A Corbin Burnes in the 4th, a Woodruff in the competitive balance draft, Nelson in the 2nd. That'd be ideal. How do you do both a "needs based draft," and then when it comes to mocking the 5 picks in the first 87 picks(or whatever it is) and not target any of these electric young arms? I'm also not real high on the one pitcher we take throwing in the 88-92 range as a College Jr. Not a lot of room for projection there.