BrewerFan

At 22, Bonds had a 114 OPS+. At 24, Bonds had a .248/.351/.426 line... but that .777 OPS was good for a 126 OPS+ What's weird about Bonds is that he had so much dWAR in a couple of those younger years 3.5 one year, 2.5 another. Not the Bonds we remember. Chourio OPS+ 20-118 21-112 22-118 I'd also disagree with his average arm strength. His arm strength is in the 80th percentile. I think Chourio can become an elite LFer or RFer(his arm in right is probably closer to average, though it's stronger than Frelick's and he's been just fine). BUT... PCA's floor is probably a 5 WAR player with his defense. If he keeps walking like he is and being more selective, he's got 9-10 WAR upside(he'll likely hit that this year). I think Chourio CAN have some monster .300 40 HR, 40 SB season in him and hopefully a few, but as of now, it's clearly PCA. Even if Chourio does that, PCA's defense is SO good he could regress offensively and be the better overall player.

PCA is clearly the answer at this point. I think Chourio is going to break out... but he hasn't done it just yet. If he does that... I guess he'd look like what PCA is right now minus the defense. PCA seems like he could have a lot more potential downside whereas Chourio... I think this is his baseline. I'm perfectly happy taking Chourio from here on out and hoping he can take the next step.

Every year? Such as? And what difference does a summary of players lost by Arnold by War matter? He's Matt Arnold so this deal is just... inherently great because he's generally good? I also don't remember anyone complaining about losing Hamilton when they dumped JB Bradley's deal, but talk about conflating situations. Of course that was when Stearns was running trades, so I don't get that one from any angle. Finally, the odds are against any prospect from becoming a good/great MLB player, so... I guess that means what?? When is it alright to disagree and when is there not just blindly agreeing with the front office? We trade... Made for May? If Arnold does it, then is it worth it? Probably not. So then... Pena? Surely there's SOME trade you'd agree was an overpay, right? Also, saying "every year WE grouse," means what? At least someone doesn't like a trade each year? The most complaints I remember about trades are this one right now and then not protecting Shane Smith, leaving him exposed. It's certainly not every year and for the overwhelming majority of the board, there's literally nothing Arnold could do that isn't met with... well, this type of response. "I'd like to see how the players Matt Arnold has traded away have done." I don't know, he generally doesn't make trades this dumb and this reactionary or as he said "trades we were very uncomfortable with." People were pissed when it was rumored to be Crow and Knoth... and then people pointed out the person saying that was a troll, it wasn't that much... and it ended up being significantly more than that... much as I like Knoth.

Yeah, they're a level below, but I don't think that matters with Payne. I like him a lot. Pena probably isn't a OFer either and I think Adamczewski not having a home is more just not having a home at 2B because of the Brewers depth there, but I think he's fine in LF. But I hate this trade and I find the argument that he was blocked, that EITHER were blocked obnoxious to begin with. Even if that's true... and it's not, you have 5 OFers(conservatively) who get PT and you're not blocked if you're a start. And hitting a HR pretty much every other game is going to get you more chances. The Brewers defense tonight, that was why I wouldn't have minded trading Pena fore Soriano. Soriano would have been worth an "overpay," IMO. But I hope May can get it all going this year.

Based on what? Just... because they traded them? Arnold was literally on the Brewers broadcast talking about how they were trying to be more aggressive and "uncomfortable," with offers. Namely the Skubal offer, but these are two guys who they pushed pretty aggressively. About as aggressively as you push an 18-year-old and a 2nd year kid you drafted in the 7th rd last year. I think it's just likely they overpaid. Payne, maybe Pena, Adamczewski. But that's irrelevant. I hate this argument either way. I don't care if you have 5 SS's who are blocked, that doesn't mean you sell one cheap. Frias, 18, 117 Exit Velos and he was compared to Junior Caminero. The Rays got lucky and didn't trade him a few years ago. I hope we didn't just trade away a future 30-40 HR a year guy.

Who do YOU specifically think he was talking about? Oh... wait, you DO know because this was VERY specifically... about Made. Literally EVERY step of the way. You're very specifically talking about Made. And then YOU responded with a strawman by saying; If I got a dollar every time I heard ‘no one does this at this age’ or ‘youngest in the league’ I’d own the Brewers. How was this NOT specifically about Made?

So have I. I don't know if it's 95 or 92% positive, obviously that was a bit hyperbolic, but you saying this board is overly critical of the front office is just objectively ridiculous. I don't know if you only go to the Game Threads... I stay away as they're the most negative threads on the board, but look at this very trade. The majority of this board would have said the front office was right if they'd made this trade or if they hadn't because that's what they did. They just traded an 18-year-old that Baseball America had as a top 100 prospect, Fangraphs as the 43rd best prospect, a kid who looked to EVERYONE else 3 days ago like the next great IFA acquisition... and now, well, he's struggling in A ball because he's "only" got a 750 OPS at 18(to say nothing of Ragsdale, though I'm actually fine with trading him as you're at least LIKELY trading him when his value is high. You're likely trading Frias just just as he starts his ascent, now the #4 prospect in the Cards system and most the board is still defending THAT trade.

Chourio was better at this point. Nobody disputes that. But you're arguing against something I never said. I said Frias was on the same trajectory, not that he was putting up a 155 wRC+ like Chourio. Frias was an 18-year-old in full-season ball with elite bat speed, exit velocity and physical projection. The Brewers themselves challenged him aggressively, just as they did Chourio. But I'm sure you were talking about how the 18-year-old in A ball more than holding his own with a ~750 OPS in danger of getting demoted. Really? C'mon... that's an intellectually honest take. As for May, you're moving the goalposts here. Nobody's arguing that Dustin May is a bad pitcher. I mean, the totality of his career would argue he's incredibly unreliable, but... sure, he had a nice start to the year. The question is whether his wild swings, terrible injury history was worth Alexander Frias and Josias Ragsdale for two months of Dustin May, given the alternatives that were available. You're also cherry-picking the comparison. Why are we only comparing May to Robbie Ray, Mize, Soriano and Gausman? Clay Holmes was reportedly one of Milwaukee's primary targets before they pivoted to May. Foster Griffin cost considerably less. Mize had another year of club control. Gausman cost the Cubs their 13th- and 24th-ranked prospects in a VASTLY inferior system after showing he can pitch at a high level last year in the postseason(after a career of showing he can be among the better pitchers in the league). All of them had better Bref WAR than May... by quite a bit and for all the "Soriano's struggled," none have pitched as poorly as May has recently. That's the comparison that actually matters. What did each team pay, and what did they get? You're also leaning heavily on season-long numbers while dismissing recent performance whenever it's inconvenient. You mention Mize's velocity trending down and one rough debut after the trade. Fine. That's fair to mention. But then why completely ignore what May has looked like for the last month? Over his last seven starts he's been one of the least effective pitchers acquired at the deadline. Three starts allowing five or more earned runs. Twice he didn't make it out of the second inning. His stuff and command have backed up considerably from where they were earlier in the year. If recent trends matter for Mize, they also matter for May. May has a ERA and an FIP both significantly higher in the last ~6 weeks than Mize AFTER a bad start. Then there's the durability question, which Pitching+ doesn't answer. Pitching+ tells us something about the quality of a pitch. It doesn't erase years of injuries. May has spent a huge portion of his career on the injured list. That's part of his value whether we like it or not, because Milwaukee isn't buying April Dustin May—they're buying August and September Dustin May and hoping he stays healthy. As for WAR, now we're just picking whichever version happens to support the conclusion. Baseball Reference has May at 0.8 WAR, not 2.6. Clay Holmes produced more bWAR in nine starts than May accumulated all season. Different WAR models value pitchers differently, which is exactly why citing only the one that favors your argument isn't particularly convincing. Soriano 2.7 WAR, Foster Griffin 3.5 WAR, Robby Ray, 2.0 WAR. And let's not pretend executives around baseball viewed May as the crown jewel of the deadline. MLB surveyed executives about which acquired pitcher would have the biggest playoff impact. Casey Mize received the most votes. Robbie Ray, Kevin Gausman, Clay Holmes and Foster Griffin all received votes. Dustin May wasn't mentioned. In fact, Zepherjahns and a couple relievers were mentioned. Not ONE executive even mentioned May, the guy who just got traded to the team with the best record in Baseball. That doesn't prove May can't pitch. It does suggest that everyone else around the league paid to evaluate talent didn't view him as the impact acquisition you're making him out to be. Finally, I think this is where we fundamentally disagree. I don't think this trade gets evaluated in a vacuum. If Milwaukee had passed on this deal because the asking price was Alexander Frias, you'd be praising the front office for showing discipline. You'd be saying, "That's too much for an injury-prone rental who's trending in the wrong direction." Instead, because they made the trade, we're working backward from the conclusion that it must have been a good value and finding statistics to justify it. If they'd have gotten Soriano, a guy with 2 more years of team control, a guy who throws in the upper 90s, gets Ks and is a heavy GB pitcher, there's no shot in hell you'd be arguing Dustin May was a better pitcher and you know it. I don't buy that logic. I think they panicked after missing on other targets and paid a premium for a rental whose recent performance was declining, whose injury history is extensive, and who simply wasn't viewed around the league as the premier starter available. This trade has the potential to become a historically bad trade... but even if Frias does end up crashing out in AA, it still won't change my mind on the process. They traded a 18-year-old with 60 power who just turned 18 this year and is already in A Ball, a kid with enormous upside for a pitcher who... has struggled. I like May. There's no way you believe he was the 2nd best pitcher traded. Clearly not better than Soriano. Probably similar to Gausman. I'd take Holmes and his GB rate. Handing a guy like Frias to STL makes it that much worse. This has all the potential to look like a James Shields-Fernando Tatis Jr trade... except at least Shields had a reputation for performing well in the postseason and at been a TOR type starter.

Ok... well, show me the guys who've performed like he has in AA at his age? If you have heard this so much about so many players... who? What have they done? Lets see some examples of how his performance at AA as an 18-year-old who just turned 19 has performed like this? If it's such a silly statement that you hear it ALL the time.... I'd be curious to see who else it's been erroneously used on. It's provide some context that'd be helpful.

We have a while yet. I think he can still earn it and I really think he could fit in as a long reliever even better. I agree, but even if the first half of this post is wrong and he's not ready to help the Brewers in the post-season, I still love his stuff and upside. It's not a great 1 for 1 comp... and I've said it like 20 times(literally) but this has the feeling of Burnes in 2019. Doesn't mean he'll become as good as Burnes, but his stuff is such that it's not a crazy idea. I think he could become a #2-3 pitcher for us, part of the new trio with Mis, Harrison and Sproat...

He's played 25 games in A ball at 18. That's absolutely the same trajectory Chourio was on. He's shown exceptional tools at the same age. Same trajectory. Did he put up the exact same stats in the first 120 PAs? No, I guess I didn't realize I had to articulate he was literally going hit for hit and doing EXACTLY the same, but he's pretty damn close. Also... how did we come to this 'very real' argument that he was the 2nd best pitcher traded at the deadline? What about him or his history would make you want him over Robbie Ray, Jose Soriano, Mize... and since we're valuing minor league stats so strongly over tools, surely we're doing the same with MLB staters, so how about Forrest Griffin, a guy with another year of team control? If it would have come out that we didn't get Dustin May because the Cardinals were asking for Frias, the 95% of the board saying 'we've got a lot of OF depth and he's not performing well... in full season baseball at 18, oh and we have this other OF prospect who doesn't have the same profile as him, he's hit really well... in 7 games.' They'd absolutely be saying, 'that's a crazy ask for a pitcher with his injury history who had thrown into the 6th inning ONCE in the last month and has an ERA of almost 6.50 in the last 7 starters, 4.38 on the season, Frias is the fastest riser in the system, he has 60 power and is the exact type of prospect we've failed to develop,' and nobody would be saying May was the 2nd best pitcher to Skubal. I love this board, but the absolute adherence to the Brewers company line can be... a LOT. It's never 'That's a bad deal, it looks like they panicked because they kept missing out on the pitchers they seemed interested in and had to overpay a division rival.' Can't we just be pissed off? And bleacher report over actual reputable sites... again, like Baseball America and then saying, 'not even one of the top 10 players traded.' Ok. That article says that. Do YOU actually believe that? Would you have said that last week? Just looking at the price Gausman went for, it'd... not even close. I actually like May. I think if we can get him to go back to his sinker as his primary pitch, he could have a good run for us... if he holds up, that's obviously been FAR from a given, but the #2 pitcher? Based on what? Not on his body of work. Not on this years performance. Not on his playoff performance. What's the very real argument he was better than the 2nd best pitcher for the Tigers who was traded, much less all the other pitchers I cited?

He's 28. He should dwarf that deal! 6/180... if he's that good. He does have pretty good stuff and I do think the Brewers will probably get him to go back to being a more sinker heavy pitcher, so I'm happy with the player we got. I'm pretty disgusted by the package we had to give up for him.

Yeah, that's a GIANT Caveat. He's an 18-year-old who's already put up Exit velos in the 117 range. I think the price we paidis exactly as outrageous as many fans and analysts have portrayed him. I think a lot of fans were seduced by him for the same reason they were Chourio and Made before him. Massive raw power from a young kid with massive upside... and the fact that we're saying "if he keeps performing like he has been in A ball" ~25 games in, he'll fall off the list sounds like coping. I also didn't put the stock in the Fangraphs. Baseball America. That's the best resource. I love the Brewers front office, but is there nothing they can do where we say, "yeah, that seems dumb, they really overpaid?" And that's not even touching on Ragsdale who, if you want to go off how prospects are performing their level, he was hitting ~.300/.430/700 with 12 HRs and 70 grade speed. He was performing better than the top prospect the Dodgers traded for Skubal, Zyhir Hope in AA(and Hope was playing in a much more hitter friendly league). I don't believe one single fan would have been fine with Frias for Dustin May, a rental and an injured reliever or including Ragsdale in that group one week ago. Now it's 'Bleacher report doesn't have him as one of the top 10 prospects traded?' Literally minutes before this trade was announced, I made a post about how I just hope they don't include Frias in a trade. This went against how the Brewers operate and there's a REAL good chance we're watching Frias in a decade playing for the Cardinals and remembering when we had Dustin May for a couple months. And of course, maybe we won't. Maybe he'll peter out in AA and never become much... and I'll still hate this trade because it's the process that was stupid. You didn't trade him for a star, you traded him for a rental who's a middle of the rotation arm.

I think it's the fact that he's arguably the best pitcher in Baseball and a lefty and instead of coming to the Brewers, he went to our biggest rival. I don't know you say he "literally cares about a contract and nothing else." He had surgery on his elbow this year and came hack in 38 days when most pitchers are out for 2-3 months. And you keep saying he sabotaged his team and... it's nonsense. He won two Cy Youngs and he had elbow soreness that he thought was going to get better and then, again, had surgery and came back in 38 days. That's "sabotaging" his team? You seem to think him wanting a 400M contract next off-season makes him a bad guy. He won't pitch like CC. What CC did was stupid. WE knew that at the time. Almost nobody would do what CC did, Sabathia's agent was not happy and I don't think the Brewers today would even ask him to do that. I'm not broken up about not getting Skubal, but it's not hard to see why people were "hyped" for a back to back Cy Young winning pitcher who was likely going to come to Milwaukee OR go to the team standing in our way.

Oh... ok, well, then I'd have to strongly disagree with you. The NFL knew they were adding a cap. Teams were ALREADY preparing for the Cap the year before. The cap helped us sign Reggie himself. The Cowboys, 49ers, Washington were the other teams along with the Packers. They offered less money because SF knew they were going to be ~30M over the 34M salary cap and they backloaded his contract and it wasn't even guaranteed. Same with Dallas. Don't know what Washington offered, but the Cap played a big role. The just within the actual roster building in '94 it had a huge impact. The 49ers as it was had 50% roster turnover and cut star or traded away multiple starting QBs(Bono and Montana) they could otherwise hoard due to the cap. Montana going to KC wasn't exclusively a cap move, but it was definitely part of it. They knew the cap was coming. Bono was a cap move. They did end up getting rid of Ronnie Lott, Tom Rathman... I don't know who else, but those were particularly famous cuts(and they were still cheating). Dallas lost Maryland, the former #1 overall pick the year we won the Super Bowl because they couldn't afford him under the cap(among others). I don't think they're winning a Super Bowl without a salary cap. The 49ers had to cut a number of players and STILL cheated and still circumvented the cap. I don't know if it'll help the Brewers get to a "bunch of World Series," but I think a salary cap and most importantly, spreading out the TV money and dividing that up equally, it'd give them a helluva lot better shot.

Yeah, that's... suboptimal. I thought that was a big part of Carlson's struggles. He had a bad long snapper and a poor holder when he was here.

"Years." This pre-season... but sure years. That's what he throws out of the pen, not as a starter and he was doing that THIS pre-season. So no, not "years." He's also a starter so if you DO want an apples to apples, his velo is exactly in line with the starters the Yankees traded. Didn't say Kuehner "sat" 97-99, but that he can throw 97-99 out of the pen. And Wagoner ok. He's "close" to one, but not one. Also, the Nats said they wanted POWER ARMS. Wagoner, Jake Bird throws 94-96 Cebert is 92-95 Grable is 93-96 THOSE are "flamethrowers?" There's ONE power arm in that group... is Cruz and he's on his 4th organization in 4 years(while being healthy) and Wagoner has been much better as a power arm in AAA this year than Cruz. I get we all love front office and arguing we couldn't match this trade, but we... we sooo easily could have... if we wanted to.

This is just... insane. I don't know if ANYONE hates this trade more than me(and I quite literally said in the Soriano thread Frias is EXACTLY the type of prospect I would NOT trade)... and I'm pretty effusive in my praise of the front office. I don't know how long you've been on this board, but no, it's about 95% positive, 5% negative... irrespective of the deal such as this one that was obviously a massive overpay.

Sure. I mean, then the Yankees didn't trade any "flamethrowers." If Wagoner throwing 101 shortly after coming back from that TJ and then the complications isn't a flamethrower... I don't know what is. Wichrowski was touching 100 and Kuhener as a lefty throws 97-99 when healthy. But... I'm not going to this pedantic thing again. The Yankees traded four low upside middling pitchers. If it's your argument they couldn't have matched that... fine. If it's your argument Wagoner isn't a flamethrower... sure.

The Peralta trade looks better in hindsight if anything. You're conflating the Peralta trade and getting back an arm like Sproat... who I don't care what he's doing the first half of his first year, he's got TOR stuff... for the Brewers getting desperate and giving up Frias. I don't know why I have to pick Frias/Ragsdale or Jett/Sproat. I'd pick a better, more proactive trade and we keep Frias if I had the authority and then we get Sproat and Jett. I also do think May, especially with the Brewers very likely prevailing upon him that his sinker is a more effective pitch, that he'll be throwing that more and induce more Groundball. We got plenty back for Peralta. That's a separate issue from giving up too much for May(and Romero).

Yoho was traded like 2 days earlier. There's zero chance if they were interested, they hadn't checked in on what the Nats wanted for him. But fine, make it Heuer. He belongs in this group of arms anyway. But so... Wagoner is not good enough and Hardin is too good... Whatever, the point is, the Brewers had the arms, the Yankees traded volume, not quality. If the Brewers wanted him, they could have got him for a comparable package. Though he would mostly be stepping into Bauers role, so I don't think it makes much sense... but they certainly had the pieces to do it. And are you saying Wichrowski and Kuehner moved the needle or don't? I'm guessing you're saying they don't move the needle, but you said they wanted upper level guys who were close to MLB who were flamethrowers. That's both of them, Wagoner. Because... it wasn't that big of a needle. One of the pitchers was a 30-year-old with a 6 ERA and mediocre stuff. The best guy they got back is the Nats 25th ranked prospect. Saying one guy is better and one is worse(and I completely disagree, Wagoner was exactly the type of BP arm they were looking for)... is really just saying the package would have been... different which is a given.

I think this is a good move. I also think he could come back and be an exceptional reliever. Someone who can go 2-3 innings in the post-season.. IF he can figure it out a bit. Yesterday, the two soft singles, then... a walk. You can't do that. Then he gives in and there are 3 runs.

So... in other words, THAT many people have told you how ridiculous it is what Made is going at 19 in AA and yet you're still like, 'meh, he's good, but nothing special.'

Made could be a... Acuna Jr at SS type prospect. Pena looks like a really-really good player, a .300/.380/.450 type guy who hits 15 HRs and steals 50 bags at 2B. Could they be busts? Yeah... obviously. Pena much more likely than Made at this point. The value Made has is very likely greater than any prospect the Brewers have ever had... so you'd need to get a player who matches that. There aren't many who are signed for whatever a 2027 season we have and then two more years over him. I do understand the logic of trading the guy who has the higher value if you think they're comparable in terms of talent. I think we'll be very happy we didn't trade Made or Pena in a couple years. I just hope another team in our division doesn't have a top 10 prospect the next few years... one they got for very little.

They sent out volume over quality. Wagoner, Yoho and Hardin would have blown away the Yankees offer. Wichrowski, Kuehner... I mean, if they really wanted him, Letson or Knoth(wouldn't have been nearly as ridiculous as Frias).