BrewerFan

That's literally what sunk cost means. I don't know where you keep pulling this "so if we trade him," nonsense out of, but that's you doing a "well it could happen." We were talking about extending the QUALIFYING offer to Woodruff IF he pitches well and if he continues to throw well. YOU stated that'd be paying him ~30M dollars next year because you're adding what is basically deferred money from this year. And YES, that is a sunken cost. I don't need an explanation of what sunk costs are, I understand what they are. You must be googling this as we go to be making this argument and then misinterpreting what you're reading. I'm sure this sounded clever when you wrote it, but it's not really hitting the mark. Peralta's OPTION year is not the same as Brandon Woodruff's buyout. No, we really do. It's pretty simple. They budged to account for the 10M dollars Brandon Woodruff was GTD. You're speculating that MAYBE they traded him if the season goes south. That's not when budgeting is done. But is there a point to any of this? Is this you just once again saying they won't offer Woodruff the QO? No, actually, it'd be like your neighbor telling you he got a car for...lets make 100% of MSRP here the market rate and you said, 'no, I won't make that offer that I know won't be accepted because...I just don't want to. Nick Martinez-A guy who'd been a reliver/starter and had a fraction of the success, one of the few pitchers who accepted the QO. Nick Pavetta-Declined the QO. Severino who in the previous SIX YEARS had thrown less than 400 innings(about half of which game in one year) and did so with an ERA over 4, he turned down the QO. And as it pertains to Montas, if MULTIPLE teams are offering him 17M a year and then 34M over 2 years...at SOME point it should be clear... that is the going rate. We'll see though. If Woodruff pitches well and stays healthy, we'll see if they...decline to offer that QO because they don't want to pay him 31M a year...which again, they wouldn't be doing, it's two entirely separate transactions, but...lets just say it is.

Neto makes sense, but I'm not trading a switch hitting power bad like Made for a poor defensive SS who has some power but doesn't walk much. Also, the Angels are in win now mode when they're 10 games out of the playoffs. They could have put themselves in a Nats like situation and traded Ohtani and... they didn't. So I doubt they make Neto available.

Well...they're be another one end of the year, no? So... do it then. Plus, I don't know enough about these prospects. Everyone is a budding superstar anyway! I would have slept better at night knowing Jack Bauer was throwing 114 MPH and rushing to get the 3 outs so he could get back to the Water Street, disarm a bomb and then inexplicably make it back for his half to pitch the next half inning. That's just a market mistake they made. Selling 24 Jersey's with Bauer on them? If Ohtani generates 70M a year for whatever team he's playing on(I actually think that was if he signed for a smaller market team as he has more value to them, but lets not get caught in the weeds here)...then having Jack Bauer, a TRUE 10 tool player(FB, CB, CH, SL, Control, Disarming Bombs, super human ability to heal broken ribs in about 2.5 hours, weapons training, hand to hand combat, saving every major city from some type of dirty bomb that's always backed up with a 2nd bomb)...he has to be worth 90-100M a year. I'm not mad about the draft we had, though, he'd have instantly been my #1 prospect. (I just realized that show goes back to...almost my HS days...many I'm getting old).

You're missing the point. It's a sunken cost. You're not suddenly paying him 30M if you extend him for another year at 20M. It is irrelevant as it pertains to signing Woodruff or not. It's basically deferred money. We do know how the team budged for it. That was just a way to spread the money out. He got a 2 year ~17.5M extension and the last chunk of that comes next year. Gasser and Cortes had very different injuries. Woodruff had a capsule injury in his shoulder. Cortes had elbow inflammation Gasser had Tommy John(you could say the last two were similar but not to Woodruffs). Had Woodruff needed TJ, I suspect he'd have gotten more on a 2 year deal than 17.5. He may have gotten 2/35. Pitchers coming back from TJ have much better results after surgery than repairing an anterior capsule. The assumption is, all pitchers are going to have injuries. You prefer it's an elbow and TJ vs a shoulder. Pitchers actually come back stronger with more velocity after TJ. It's just the opposite with the shoulder. That said, he sat out 4 months. He was given the green light. He was a pending FA and a competitor. If you want to parse out who he came back and pitched for, it was most likely for him, not as a sense of duty to the Brewers and there wasn't any indication it was compromised. No, not really. not on a 1 year deal. They're not going to not offer him a QO... that they know he'll turn down...again, assuming he continues to stay healthy and pitch well. Frankie Montas...came back from the similar injury, he was never the pitcher Woodruff has been. He threw 1.1 IP and got 17M dollars. He was then terrible for the Reds. They traded him to...us. He put up a ~4.84 ERA. He signed a contract for 1 year 17.5 with a player option for 17.5. AGAIN, assuming Woodruff doesn't fall apart, he's a lock for a QO and he's also likely to turn it down. Probably the best of both worlds if he doesn't turn it down(but he would). My hope of a 3/60M deal is probably not realistic from Woodruff's perspective, but the Brewers absolutely have that money and Attanasio has said...numerous times(and has followed through) that if there was a player who could help the Brewers win, they could extend the payroll. The man he said was not only his favorite player, but person...and a well respected veteran on the other side of a bad injury(again, assuming he is, it's been two starts) would likely be that person. The Brewers payroll is less than they get from the league in revenue sharing, a number that should be going up as will their revenue should doing anything in October. But that's speculation. What's about 99% certain, Woodruff stays healthy, he pitches well, he gets a QO. The Rays would make that offer, the old As would make that offer. The Brewers are definitely going to make that offer. That's a pretty easy call. He'll turn it down and sign for at LEAST more years if not years and AAV. It's 2025. The Cubs traded for a player who's going to get 500M in FA. The Brewers will not let him leave without at LEAST a draft pick.

He didn't try and come back and pitch on a compromised shoulder. He had a shoulder injury that kept him out most of the year. He was back, throwing the ball exceptionally well, they took their time bringing him back and he hurt his arm after a very strong start vs the Marlins near the end of the year, not this version where he was hurt and he sucked it up(in a FA year) and tried to gut through it for the Brewers. That'd be more akin to Ben Sheets and the Brewers and that probably ended HIS career, VERY different situation from Woodruff. He'd have been pitching for any other team in baseball in that same situation. This argument just fundamentally doesn't make any sense. That money from this year(it's effectively deferred money) has nothing to do with the QO. It won't happen, but lets just say it did(arguments sake). Rhys Hoskins goes OFF and hits .350 with 15 HRs in the final month and then he's the NLCS MVP and his value goes up, he's looking great, he opts out of his deal. That plays NO ROLE into the Brewers offering him the QO. 2 factors and 2 factors only. 1-Will he sign it. Do you want that player for 1 year at 21.05/Is he worth it. 2-If he signs it, does it cripple your franchise. It appears as though TWO-STARTS-IN...and I'm very guilty of projecting based on what I see, but 2 starts isn't enough to answer the 1st question. The 2nd question, no, it's not going to cripple the Brewers. I have ZERO doubt the Brewers could add 20M in payroll if they wanted to for a year. I suspect as they work out the TV deal...which the team has said will hurt in the short term, but be very beneficial in the long run, they'll be able to be closer to that 140-150M in the next few years. Maybe once they pay down some of the debt from the recent investments or maybe just because they've getting probably about 150M from revenue sharing(obviously you have to pay MilB players more, you have to have a world wide scouting apparatus, you need to be able to spend 15M on draft picks, ~5M on IFA)... Anyway, keeping Woodruff for another year, irrespective of his buyout will not hurt this team IF he declines the QO. another 1st rd pick. If he picks it up, a under market starting pitcher you can look to trade him or...have another ace in your roation in the year where the Brewers window was REALLY supposed to pop open. By then, hopefully Mis will be extended, Pratt will be in AAA and Adams, depending on how long he's out for could be our 1B with Murray and others knocking on the door. Win-Win.

You don't factor in the 10M buyout. That money is gone and spent. Of course you offer him the QO if he finishes the year strong(this is ALL operating under the assumption that he finishes strong and actually gets stronger physically). What's more, the QO is pretty much a given based on how he looks now. He's going to turn it down most likely. He'll want at least the QO but that price over multiple years. I'm hoping he likes Milwaukee...based on everything he's said and he wants to stay with one team...and for that reason he comes back. But if he doesn't want to, you offer the QO, you take the pick and if he opts in, you take the player for a year and ~20M. Win/Win.

No. -Woody would not be out of pro-baseball without the Brewers. I think it's possible he took less money to stay with the Brewers, but he came back because he was comfortable here. That's an opinion, but what's not is that SOME team would have given him money to miss a year, rehab and then bank on him coming back. 2/17.5 was extremely reasonable. -I think Woody WANTS to be in Milwaukee. But what price are we talking about? I've said that if Woody can keep building off what he's done thus far, I'd be on board to give up 3/60. That's IF he can keep locating the ball as he has, he can keep building off each start(the 2nd start back is always huge for shoulder injuries). And I think it's possible given how Attanasio has said Woodruff is not only one of his favorite players, but one of his favorite PEOPLE. That said, 3/60 was IF he kept throwing well AND he kept improving his velo. So he's sitting 95-96 and can touch 97 at times as he rebuilds strength, even top out at 98. But, if he does that and another team is willing to offer 6/140...no, he does not "owe" the Brewers 80M dollars. He OWES his family what's best for them. I think he wants to be in Milwaukee. I think he'd prefer it. I don't think you give up generational wealthy out of sentimentality. So I hope we can work something out, namely because it'll mean that Woodruff has thrown the ball well enough that we want to. And maybe at that piont, he'll take a LITTLE less to stay. The Brewers can certainly expand the payroll beyond where they currently are, but they can't give a pitcher who'll be 33 6 years or 25M a year. Bottom line- The ONLY thing Woodruff has owed the Milwaukee Brewers was going out there every 5th day when possible and to be a great leader and to take his job seriously. He's done that, he's a Brewers icon and he owes them nothing more.

I've thought he's looked like he could be capable of becoming a Contreras type catcher(another catcher who was an "ofensive first catcher," and developed under our exceptional catching development staff). An older reliever for a REALLY good hitter who could stick behind the dish, but who I think could play multiple other positions? Nah. In fairness, though, he could be the type of guy the Brewers love, and they can find another level for and he could slide in front of Mears. Dinges could be an...Angel Saolme, but I would aim higher if you're trading a C who has looked like Dinges. Someone with 2-3 years left. Heck, Durang for Dinges and another quality arm make more sense. Felix Bautista, Clause, guys like that. Go the Royals WR run route. Just 2-3 elite BP arms aside from Ashby. That makes more sense. Patrick+Dinges even for...Clause/Durang. Probably an overpay with a young starter, but that locks down your pen for the next 2-3 years.

You can account for that in the contract. It's almost a shame it's such a weak NL ROY class though as he's now the betting favorite. Account for that in the contract. I'm thinking 7/95M GTD and 2 TOs at 25M(10M buyout, part of the 95M). I'd rather we get aggressive and try and keep our guys as we'll never be able to sign a guy like this in FA... and I amnot interestedin the "when should we trade Mis, maximize his value." This would come at a time when Pratt, Made, Pena, and who knows who else are just becomes part of that nucleus that looks so promising?

You actually said; And when do you ever sign not just a pre-arbitration guy, but a guy with ~a month into the big leagues to a contract extension without buying out FA years? The idea isn't to lock in his arbitration numbers, it's to extend your team control... And not that it matters, but...we DO already have a thread about this very issue, extending Misiorowski. Some people take that pretty seriously🤔

No, the team that signs him to that deal with the deferred money is the one responsible for it. That is the default. When the Nats traded Scherzer or...a thousand other examples. If we traded Yelich, we'd still be on the hook for that 10 years of...2.3M (2.5 if/when we decline the final year). That only changes if you specifically make that part of the trade, but it's definitely not assumed. The team that trades him would get him for ~2.5 months at 6-7M for the rest of this year, and IF he gets injured and doesn't opt out, you're taking on 40M the next two years TOTAL, not per year, as each year, 20M is deferred. It's a contract setup for him to opt out but also provide protection in case he does not. Though in that scenario, I'd assume the Red Sox would want some protection. Make the Brewers eat 10M of that deferred money, but that's speculation. In all standard cases, deferred money is the obligation of the team that signed the player. The Red Sox are the worst run big market team...IMO. From trading Betts and Price(who had negative value, but they paid half of the remaining 3 years at 32M AAV). Betts had averaged 8.1 WAR a year through age 26 and had just won an MVP. It's hard to understand what they're actually trying to do. Signing Story when he was on the decline, and then letting Xander walk. If you could trade for Bregman and not give up a top 5-6 prospect...I'd do it. Big bat, locks down 3B. They have done a good job at developing their own talent, but...they've got a lot of money and it's seldom wisely spent.

Not an opt out. If we're giving him 100M GTD, we should get TOs. 8/100 with TOs at 30M AAV and incentives if he win ROY. No, he really doesn't. He says there's been no formal contract offer. That doesn't "push back" on the report that they're interested and that they've had preliminary talks. That's the exact report I read. They've talked, they're not close on the numbers(which makes sense).

Yeah...I would have loved to have back to back picks there. More room to spend later and... I like Priester... but we've got a LOT of good arms right now. I don't know that Priester is one of our 5 best arms. He's a really nice arm, gets GBs, but he's a #4/5 and I'm not sure he's much(if at all) better than Henderson, Patrick or Myers(especially with the bump in velo and the change improving). And he may be the next to get sent down. So if the question is, was that a good trade? Well...sure. A starting pitcher is incredibly valuable. Rodriguez did look like a potential top 100 prospect in the near future, but...he wasn't one yet. Still just a young talent in A+. If the question is does losing that pick hurt...well...yeah. It gives you the chance to take a guy who can throw harder than any other HS pitcher ever AND thwart an entire terrorist plot in just one spin around the sun. That's a lot.

Nats probably gonna end up with him. That'd be my guess. Big hard thrower, early pick tomorrow, probably saved millions with the 1st pick... But, if he makes it 20 picks, the Brewers should have money.

No, probably not, but if you get an ace and a power hitting corner IFer who hits for power and takes a ton of walks, that's not bad for the big league club. Wasn't much else in the way of prospects who have any value outside of Adams and I think there was a pitcher in '22 that's not terrible. Wagoner, I assume has had a shoulder or...TJ? He seemed like he might have something. O'Rae is a potential utility guy I guess(could he handle SS/3B?)...and Wood. And unless I'm mistaken, he's not really viewed as a Catcher at the MLB level. But hey, '23 seemed to make up for it and hopefully '25 will be as good as '23.

Well...I do...in some situations...depending on the pitcher. If Woodruff does the things I suggested, it's probably not real likely he'll be back for 3/60, but ages 32, 33, 34 for a guy like Woody who is probably one of the few players whose value extends beyond his performance on the field. I also don't think this is just lip service from Attanasio. I don't think he's going to go 6 years and 140 if Woodruff finds his way all the way back, but I could see him taking less...and the Brewers already showed they were willing to be aggressive with Woodruff, giving a guy ~18M going into a serious shoulder injury. He's also just 2 starts back, so all of this is premature. We could end up in a scenario in which we're declining the option or... hell, maybe even both sides pick it up(been about a decade since that happened).

I count... at least "next Josh Haders," now! And that started while we still had Josh Hader.

I just saw Myers was hitting 97.8 in AAA and his Change had improved(makes sense he'd be working on it). If Myers can touch 98...or lets just say he's gained a tick or 2 on his Velo and he's throwing 94-95, and touches 96 with the rise he gets on that, it could be an elite pitch. Add the Change...which he threw 3% of the time and even just keep the slider and cutter where they were in terms of effectiveness in 2024, he could really valuable. I THINK it was @Spencer Michaeliswho tweeted about it. I might put a pin in dealing Myers. 5 more years of team control and if he's taking another step, he could be an outstanding #4/5 Starter, maybe a #3 in our rotation. Peralta/Misi/Priester/Henderson/Myers/Patrick. I'm also watching 'Big Woo" and I've been very impressed at the way he's locating without his best stuff...which I think will come back. He's occasionally touching 96, but more in the 92-93 range. If he is more 95-96 and touching 98 again, with the way he's pitching... he COULD be worth a QO and even 3/60 extension. But...that's a little side tangent with 3 more months of big "ifs" preceding it. Myers though, if this newfound velo and improved change is legit, I'd change my mind and prefer to keep him. OR trade him in a larger trade for a guy with multiple years of team controls, but not a rental. Of course, the report on the velo was ONE pitch at 97.8...so who knows. That too may be premature. But it'd give me pause.

Well...Wilken is out for the year and was on his way to AAA. I can't imagine Adams was far behind, but... as they're both out, you have to assume Burke is REAL close to AA. Play Adams at 3rd and Burke at 1st. Adams wasn't a butcher over there, just not MLB caliber. Of course, he can also DH, but at least get them both in the lineup(of course I have no idea how long Adams is out for).

This is a problem with tying incentives to the ASG. Misiorowski doesn't "deserve" to be an AS based on 5 starts... but it's an exhibition and he's one of the most entertaining pitchers in the game. I personally wish he wouldn't pitch in it, but think it's cool he's been named to the team.

I remember Brewers fans talking about wanting Grayson Rodriguez+Jackson Holliday AND lower rated prospects for Burnes(this was with 2 years of team control). Fans expectations seldom line up with reality. If they can get a top 100, they should. I'd maybe trade Henderson, but it'd take more than O'Hearn.

Dinges? I really like him. Looks like an elite bat for a guy who has the skills to catch, but... of course, we can over-value our own prospects. Burke again, he seems like a really safe bet to be a .280/.350 hitter with a very good glove at 1B.... but you are selling high on both, so it makes sense. AZ is losing a lot of pitching. We have a couple guys with really good stuff in AA pushing the guys in AAA. An actual log jam among Starting Pitchers. AZ has a big need there. Naylor would be another guy I would be alright with. Doesn't have the versatility of Bauers, but...he's a talented hitter.

Ok, fair enough. I just saw a stat line...it was like .313 and...well, I don't really remember, just that it made it a little surprising they didn't really try and trade him and find a team to eat even 5-6M. I went through it and there's just...nothing there. He's a veteran RHH and maybe that could help, but I don't know who you'd demote. If-IF you demoted Ortiz for a few weeks, he could slide in...I guess. I just tried to, but when you go and look at the numbers, they're ugly the last few years. He doesn't even hit LHPing better than RH'ed pitching. The best I can come up with is IF-IF the Brewers think Ke'Bryan Hayes has something in his game they can unlock, he's an elite defender at 3B and he's got decent bat speed and his contract is not onerous(though... you're betting you can get more value for him and flip him in a year or two. Anyone I can think of beyond that is a 1B/DH. If he's better... the IF market is bad.

What do you consider cheap for Suarez? Lets say it costs... Tobias Myers or I saw a Tyler Black+Carlos Rodriguez, though that seems light. I get it, I don't want to trade Dinges, Burke, Lara, or anyone above, but with so many starting pitchers and a 3B who can give you an ~.850 OPS... I'd be very excited about that. I think I get where you're coming from though. Didn't someone on here write a "make a big trade or no trade," type article? Basically... don't give up prospect capital for a modest upgrade. I'd argue Suarez is a significant upgrade, but he IS a pretty low BA/OBP type guy with solid, but not elite defense. The one caveat I'd add... Durbin looks like a good player, but will there be some recession for him? His underlying metrics are as ugly as...Bryan Reynolds are good. What matters is how many times you actually get on base, get a hit, create runs, but half a season of a pretty good line, has he been lucky? 1% in Exit Velo, just low across the board in hard hit rate, barrel rate, and even his defense, which I've thought has looked great, it's about average. Better than Suarez, but not great.

Yeah, if he was close to Collins production in CF, he's probably a 6 WAR player. I don't think people realize what a good players Collins has been. He's worse. Much-much worse. Collins- .270/.370/.405 and a .776 OPS... if Perkins put up a .250/.350/370 line, he'd be an elite CFer. And as has been pointed out, he's more than above average defender. Pete Crow-Armstrong... pretty clearly the ELITE defensive CFer of this era had 15 OAA last year Perkins had 11. Perkins is not a GG OFer while PCA is playing... but he's an elite one.