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I made that mistake as well, but I think it'd really just be each guy playing and a pretty regular rotation. Maybe even Collins playing some 2B. But yeah, you have to at last put him out there every day. .300/.400(almost).... and GG defense and he's a winner. I spent so long denying chemistry in Baseball because of stories I read about teams that hated each other, but... Jeff kent and Barry Bonds were all-time greats and rare. Guys who grind and scratch and claw for every inch and you throw in some talent and stars like Chourio will be when he's an MVP candidate next year, that stuff matters. Collins starts, Mitchell gets some games vs RHP and then the players will figure it out with a hammy here or a quad there and hopefully Mitchell can stay healthy and make it really difficult. But hey.... we are 5.5 GAMES BETTER than ANY OTHER TEAM in Baseball an we've just gone 26-4 in the last 30 games, including a month in which...I thought we'd be playing good ball if we went .500. So screw next year. We've got Ueck in the OF, no longer in the Cheap Seats and.... we'll worry about DEFENDING our Title next year!
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This is where I'm at. 7 years, 200M is probably fair. I HOPE he just loves Milwaukee and he's willing to sign here. The Braves would be a great fit for him, don't know if they can afford him(the Mets as well). 4 and 80... that'd be a gift and I don't even know if that'd be a gift we'd accept as silly as that sounds. That's another big commitment. I cut it at 3/60 because that's really 3/70 and that shouldn't matter, but it's still real cash that has to be paid. I'm also struggling. Would it be better to give Woody that money or would it be better to line up extensions for Misiorowski and give him at 10-15M signing bonus(that could help signing him a LOT as he's not waiting). Turang-I've been saying he's a poor man's Trea Turner since he was in AA and I'm starting to think.... he may not be so poor. 6years 60M? Probably too light. Frelick-No clue. Not a 2B so less value, but a winner. I may go close to Turang TBH even though he's not as valuable. I'm also trying to get Uribe to sign an Ashby type deal and Megill to sign for a 4/20 type deal. I suspect I'll get pushback, but these guys are SO fun and they're great. Outside of Misiorowski, it's probably just coping with the fact that Woody is likely gone.
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"At his age?" He's 32 years old. Have you been watching what they pay pitchers? Wheeler just for 42M dollars over 3 years. Now he has been a workhorse, but the rest of the pitchers on these list have had more injuries than Woodruff. 25 starters make 20M a year or more(and that number is skewed with the deferred money). As we were talking about the total the Brewers would be paying Woody NEXT year which includes the 10M he's going to get either way, he'll definitely get that. I also said I don't think he'll take the hometown discount. He could sign a 3 year deal in which...I'd be shocked if he doesn't break 30-35M or he can take a long term deal in which case...7-210 is well within reach. It's expensive, but Max Fried has been riddled with injuries and he got 8 years and 218 dollars. Wheeler-42 deGrom-40.1 Glasnow-32.25 Blake Snell-Got two 30M+ deals. 34M with the Giants 5/145.6 with the Dodgers and he's had two really good years and then a LOT of injured years. Those two are certainly not the picture of health. Scherzer was making 37M at 34 with the Nats, then signed a deal for 43.3 for 3 years Verlander- was making 28M in 2015, he had TJ surgery, came back and signed for 25M after missing a full year with TJ and then made 43.3 the last two years. Greinke signed a deal for ~35 million a YEAR for...I believe 6 years. Ages 32-37(little injury history) Kershaw has signed multiple 30M a year deals. Strausburg and his length injury history got 7/240 Rondon is just shy of 30M at like 28.7 or whatever, he's about a year younger. Yamamoto got 12 and 325 before throwing a pitch. Of course Burnes just got 35M, Cole got 36M, they were healthy. And again, I was referencing an ideal world, IF Woodruff came back what our total obligations would be if he signed some team friendly deal of 3/60 which I think is very unlikely, we'd be paying him 30M next year which just changed some of the calculus on Danny Jansen and spending around the fringes, but Woodruff has had one injury and he's come MOST of the way back from it and he's really only halfway into his season. I expect him to be hitting 96-97 in the post-season. If Woodruff goes for the most money he can get(Which... as a Brewers fan I don't want to see, but as an adult now with a family...I understand and even as a diehard Brewers fan, I'd probably take the most) it's just a matter of the structure. 3- years, as we were discussing, he should get easily get 30M. 7 or even 8 years(8 years would be a waste or an option and a way to defer some money) then I'd expect 25-28 based on what he's showing RIGHT NOW. But look at the market, look at the last 5-10 years. PITCHERS can continue to throw and have success well into their 30s. Far more than hitters. Also, Woody comes back and he is throwing in the mid to upper 90s...with his command, you already know he's a pitcher that will age well. His reputation as a leader and the antithesis of a clubhouse cancer, but someone who mentors pitchers and WANTS to be around the team, those aren't things that get you paid 30M, but they are things that can push a team who is considering 5/125 to 5/150...IMO. Especially given the desperate need for SPers out there. We live in a utopia where we keep finding them, but even then, Woody may be the best pitcher in Brewers history when you look at his consistency, leadership, everything. I would actually argue looking at the list of pitchers, Woody is younger than when a LOT of them got 30M, a lot got just shy of 30M(27, 28 like Fried) and the BIG notch in Woodruff's column is he doesn't HAVE to come back and throw 97-98 to be worth it. I still think the further away from shoulder surgery he gets, the more likely, but he's proving he's expanded his repertoire and he can hit his spots. And he'll give up some HRs...who doesn't. But they're RARELY with men on. He's not giving you free passes. He's attacking. Finally, I think the shoulder injury should be a relatively minor concern by the end of the year. Once you come back from it, you're in good shape. You come back, rebuild the strength, you're not at any more risk than anyone else(which to be fair, is always a good amount, but it's no higher than any other pitcher). So I'd say give Woody 30M before Glasnow or whoever else will be getting it this off-season or next. I'd take Woody moving forward over Burnes and TJ is a surgery most come all the way back from.
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Man, I don't know... I felt like I was about 2-8 the start of the year. I feel like I'm 39-0 the second half of the year. I've only been to 19 games. I'm gonna guess 14-5 in Milwaukee 1-0 in Chicago
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2025 Official Draft Signings Thread
BrewerFan replied to Jake McKibbin's topic in MLB Draft & International Signings
Yeah, he may not have taken the best care of his body, but he went out there and threw... and even when his shoulder was bad, he went out there for the team and it may have cost him his career. THAT... FA or not, I'd also hope we wouldn't do. I mean...maybe in the WS and elbow, but not shoulder. He did get paid after that IIRC. 10M by Oak and then a couple more years. So...that was...something. Done by 28 though. That command and that 12/6 hammer. Nasty. -
2025 Official Draft Signings Thread
BrewerFan replied to Jake McKibbin's topic in MLB Draft & International Signings
It goes even further back than that(as it always will for developing pitchers). Jones and Rogers had great stuff. But this organization with Sheets? He's not throwing 153 IP his first year in Pro-Ball and then 675 from 23-25. They may have added a Change. Parra... he had great stuff. That was supposed to be Sheets and Yo and then we trade for CC(and Yo did come back...kinda). But maybe Sheet's arm doesn't fall off, Para develops. But all the trial and error and even Gilber Lara got us here. To 2-3 of the top ~20 prospects, not 4/5ths your class on one Salas type player(unless it's Sasaki) and hope you hit. I thought back then it was better to trade for Greinke vs CC. Both were rumored to be available, one had team control. Maybe we get a couple more runs with Greinke. We ALMOST certainly don't get THAT run with him. -
Yes, I forgot about Collins. I don't think they'll trade Mitchell to start the year. He's got so little value and so much talent. I think it's more likely they give it another go and hope he can stay healthy. If he can't, he'd be done. If he can... well, I think he'd be done in Milwaukee. If he had a big year, I think they'd likely trade him. They can go with Collins, Mitchell, Perkins, Chourio, Frelick and Lockridge can start the year in AAA. Yelly is likely the full-time DH until someone forces the issue. That was also obviously not the season opening lineup as I don't think there's any chance Wilken goes from AA injury to MLB next year. They'll at least give him 2 months of ABs...or Adams. Or maybe Fischer is that good and he pushes for a spot. -As for Murphy moving Turang off of 2B, his natural position is SS. He was drafted as a SS, he won the job as a SS and he got a dead arm. That's pretty common in ST'ing. Murphy had even said that Ortiz at 2B and Turang at SS was "better for both people." Then came the dead arm and they went back to Ortiz to SS and Turang to SS, but I can't possibly see why that would be a permanent placement. His arm go tired... it's not much. If it comes down to Turang and Durbin vs Ortiz and Turang. If the later duo is better, that's what I think they'll go with. If it's the prior, that's what they should go with. I think it'd be kinda silly to not move him. Ideally, Ortiz would hit and we'd have even more options. You could play Collins, Turang and I guess Durbin at 2B vs RHPers. Or just swap out Ortiz and Turang vs LHPing. This scenario also came down to Wilken playing 3B and Adams at 1B...so it's at BEST a couple months into the season and most likely... not how it'll play out. But Wilken is the MORE likely player to make it up and I'm just going off the lineup this year(minus the glaring omission of a .290/390 GG caliber LFer). Best case scenario? Ortiz hits like last year or like he has for a while now this year. .265/.306/.400 and a .706 OPS. That's good enough. He's really bad vs RHPing though... so I could still see him getting some days off vs righties in the future. No, Jansen will be declined. I'd said I hope they bring him back on a ~6M type deal. Maybe a 5M with a mutual and a 1.5 buyout. I'm not sure what the market will be, but I don't think it's going to be all that strong and that Appleton kid may want to stick around for another year. A lot of these deals would be contingent upon the small likelihood they work something out with Woodruff. You'll be paying him 30M next year IF he takes a team discount...so if that happens, the Brewers made a historic run to the World Series and generated tens of millions of dollars AND players want to come back. If by some shock they bring Woody back, then... I'd assume it'd be Hasse as the backup C, I'd also imagine they would add very little else. I'm not sure they need to add much. Shelby Miller might be nice, but he'd likely come in around 7-8M next year at least. I to think Jansen taking some games at catcher has helped Contereas take a little break.
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The 10M buyout isn't a problem so much as... a sunk cost. He's getting that either way. So the contract he'd sign would be entirely separate from that. They could restructure I suppose. Make it 3/75 and defer some I suppose. Woodruff would really have to want to stay in Milwaukee though.
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2025 Official Draft Signings Thread
BrewerFan replied to Jake McKibbin's topic in MLB Draft & International Signings
It certainly couldn't have hurt, but I don't recall much about any of them. Their spin rates or... even what they threw. A big part is identifying the right players. The one guy I think they could have really hit on is Wily Peralta. Upper 90s with that sinker that had a lot of movement plus a slider that was good... at times. He's the main guy I think they could have really helped, but I'm sure if we'd have taken those guys, we've have gotten a lot more out of them. -
2025 Official Draft Signings Thread
BrewerFan replied to Jake McKibbin's topic in MLB Draft & International Signings
This also reminds me of a discussion we had regarding IFA money. Should we be spending 10M on the IFA infrastructure and signings or add that one FA each year. Who was the guy this year we almost all thought they should sign? Yoan Moncada. Nobody is trading Made, Pena, Uribe and Chourio(this last year during his rookie season) for 1 year of Yoan Moncada playing 3rd. Now, if Nestor Cortes had had a normal Nestor Cortes like season, this trade would look even more ridiculous(still don't like giving up Quintana, but we've established...I'm wrong about trades this year). But we got a 2.2 WAR upgrade for the league minimium. https://stathead.com/baseball/versus-finder.cgi?player_id2=moncad000joh&year_min=2025&player_id1=durbin000cal&seasons_type=forall&request=1&utm_id=durbica01&utm_source=br&utm_medium=sr_xsite&utm_campaign=2023_01_wdgt_player_comparison -
2025 Official Draft Signings Thread
BrewerFan replied to Jake McKibbin's topic in MLB Draft & International Signings
My keyboard and mouse are... acting weird making it difficult to type. I hadn't really finished my thought, but the economics aren't so different that what Bando did with Molly was justified. He wanted him to take a paycut and really, just didn't want him back. They were cutting spending after several big signings(for the period) like Higuera, Stubbs, maybe Wegmen, IDR all of them, but it was 5 maybe 6 guys who were making good money(Pleasac was making a couple M which... it's almost like 1M then is equal 10 in today's money. BUT... the important part here is the part in bold. They are making an investment in more than just scouting and signing draft picks, they're really invested in the infastructure of developing the players and they're all in on maxing out their bonus money/IFA money. I did wonder if maybe trading pick #33 was because they were going to be close to 20M and that was just more than they wanted to spend... but you watch Priester pitch and... nope, I was wrong. I thought Civale was just a deal to move him for the first player with a comparable salary and maybe it was and they're that lucky, but I suspect it's as much do to with a VERY deep pro personnel department that is a step ahead of most everyone else. You wonder who is looking at Priester and saying, 'nah, we can fix that, go give up a borderline top 100 prospect, the 33rd pick and a pitcher for this 1st rd bust, or looking at Vaughn and think he's worth taking a shot at trying to get him to be more selective. Another thing about Attanasio, he's got a reputation for giving younger guys a chance, he pays them above market rate and he's loyal...and since Lohse, he's stayed out of the decision making(or his well intentioned meddling is a better way to put it perhaps). But right up there with extending young players, I'd be making sure our scouts and those pitching coaches and Charlie Moore are being compensated well enough as I'd be poaching them if I were any other organization. -
2025 Official Draft Signings Thread
BrewerFan replied to Jake McKibbin's topic in MLB Draft & International Signings
They let arguably the most popular player in Brewers history go(not counting Braves player or even Aaron as "Brewers" players) go in Molitor over less than 800K. And they made the offers. I don't know that they did this ever, even when they were bad, but if they were going cheap in the first round signing a guy like Payne(which they still need to pay 75%)... just to save money, not to spend money later, that'd be a problem. They're just weren't able to spend above their bonus this year or last, but not due to lack of effort. And even those bad teams, I wouldn't even say they didn't go after high upside players, but they put so much on the backs of prep pitchers. Huge risk/reward there. Gold, Neugebauer, Sheets, Rogers, Jones, the list is loong. There was no real Latin American program. I don't know how they signed Teddy Higuera, but take the LA players out of the equation here and this is a good, not great team and the future... it looks...alright. That LA system seems like it gives the Brewers more room to work in the draft...if that makes sense. They can take a couple chances...and they're working out great. And yet...they STILL find these guys who hit WALK OFF HOME RUNS... like it's nothing. Just pick up a LFer who takes the first 100m closer deep...things like that! -
Brewers Trade Aaron Civale To White Sox For Andrew Vaughn
BrewerFan replied to wibadgers23's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I said this for the last month. 'Great, Vaughn's up... rally's over.' And then he gets an RBI double with 2 strikes or he hits a 3-run bomb. Some players, being on good teams keeps them more dialed in vs being on historically bad team last year... now a just awful team. I'd imagine it's an entirely different approach. That could explain some of the improvement in swing choices. Maybe he just figured it out later. Maybe we just happened to get him when he was on a Geoff Jenkins like burner. The upshot is, Hoskins should be back and next year... hopefully Wilkens, Adams will be healthy to provide some depth. If Vaughn can keep up his plate discipline, that's better than anyone we could have added. -
Adams has the higher walk rate, the higher projected walk rate by Steamer, he hits for much more power. And...AGAIN, he's not a prospect in the Milwaukee Brewers farm system. So we're going to have to trade quite a bit to give up a guy who's 4th-to 6th(again, in every ranking I've seen) in a top 10 systems top 10. And Adams has played primarily 3rd base until Wilken bumped him off it and he's stolen 30 and 28 bags the last two years. So I'm not real concerned with his glove at 1sts and I certainly think it's ridiculous to say "Morgan gets on base without getting hit," which is more sustainable while ignoring who walks more. There's also the power and that's not even comparable. No, not really. Diaz is likely gone. It's strange you think he's this perfect fit, but you wouldn't think Tampa Bay would? You think they'll choose a 33 year old making 12M, a player who has been part of trade rumors for a couple years or do you think they'd go with the guy who can play both corner OF spots, where they have an 83 OPS+ and a 90 OPS+. It's not like Tampa Bay is overflowing with talent there... so 4 spots in the lineup for him to play. I don't think there are a lot of bodies blocking him. I'm more than happy to take a walk rate over ~20% for a K rate of ~26% ... especially when it comes with massive power. In any event, skepticsm is fine. That's probably why we've drafted a 1B and 3B in the first rd the last two years(a 3rd if you include Ebel, though he's on a different time line from the two College bats we took). Just throwing him into a group of prospects with Carlos Rodriguez, Yoho, Tyler Black... who is definitely undervaluing him. Carlos Rodriguez really isn't a highly rated prospect. Tyler Black is a LHed hitting 1B/DH and maybe Corner OF. Lockridge is a RHed hitting 70 grade speed CFer and can play all 3 OF spots. I don't see Black being passed over for Lockridge. I also didn't like trading Quintana... not sure that means you could have just swapped Black in or... how this really pertains to what I was saying. I didn't like that deal. I also said I didn't like the deal for Priester and I didn't like getting Vaughn back. So I'm gonna trust Arnold as he seems to be doing fine. But sure... trading an 18 year old SS didn't feel necessary. They may have think much higher of Lockridge than we have. Right... and I agree he'd be a nice addition. I'm just not sure why the Braves will be looking to move off him. And Durbin doesn't need to play SS. We've still have Turang and Ortiz. I don't think Alvarez is viewed as someone who can do more than just fill in at short with his defense, but... I'd also like him. I think he'll be much more expensive than Castro however. I suspect you'd have to give up a fairly substantial package to acquire him and... by this time next year, we're going to have a whole lot of players pushing for playing time across the IF. But if Yoho, Carlos Rodriguez and Tyler Black gets it done, I would be thrilled. No, it's not, but when talking about trading for prospects, I think it makes sense to try and view it from the other teams perspective. Also looking at if that trade is necessary given in-house options. And yes, there's plenty of make believe... and this is generally how we talk about them. For instance, when people were talking about a "Yelich like trade," and suggesting we give up a Made or Pena for Abrams or Henderson. That was certainly an appealing idea... but it was pointed out Washington didn't seem like they were in a position to trade away their young, controllable SS. I believe we've long been interested in Ramirez. I think that's a trade we'd have made work... but he seems happy there. But sure, that's a player I'd be happy giving up one of the 18-year-olds in Appleton for.
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Yeah, I was thinking about 1B and how they(Vaughn and Adams...Jesus...I still wasn't clear when I clarified) would split the time there at 1B, basically just thinking about how much credence I'd put in Vaughns 3-4 week stretch now and then I went back and added Ortiz. So I definitely meant Ortiz would play SS, just misspoke. We brought Back Betancourt to play 1B after his Gold Glove caliber 2011 season, right? Talking about Ortiz playing SS on NEXT years team would be... up there with that! LOL...so yes, that was a mistake.
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I didn't see others had replied, but...he kept arguing. Well... they're a top 5 farm system by most mid-season rankings. #2 by Kiley and Bleacher Report, #4 by Fangraphs... If you're talking about Carlos Rodriguez, sure. I don't know what you mean about "the worth of pitchers that are strictly relievers in the minor... that no one reads AA or A pitcher to be named later." I have no idea what that means? They have maybe one guy in their top 30 who is a "strictly reliever," and that's Yoho and his change and similarities to Devin William and just the movement on that Change has him worth a LOT more than a PTBNL. Alverez would be a great addition, but I think Durbin will eventually be that utility guy. I don't think we'd trade what it costs to get him. He was a top 100 prospect and he may have lost some value but the Braves are a team that's going to be competing next year. With the injuries to Albies, Riley, and just lack of offensive ability at SS...where the Braves started playing him more and he held his own. I think he'll have a big role for ATL. Beyond that, I think Durbin is our future Utility player. He can play 2B, 3B, Turang can play SS. Wilken likely takes over at 3B. He was probably close to getting a callup this year, leading AA in OPS by a wide margin(ahead of Luke Adams who was 2nd) and hitting 18HRs, again, far and away the league leader prior to his injury, again ahead of Adams. His AAA promotion was even leaked. So Wilken spends a couple months in AAA, he hits, he gets called up this Sept as a power bat off the bench. He's got more upside than Durbin and Durbin doesn't have the power. His best role is as a utility player. I like Tre Morgan as well... but again, he's not going to be cheap. I don't know that we're going to give up the prospect capital to add a 1B when we have multiple guys ready to take over 1B in the next year. Luke Adams... athletic, big 1B who has been playing 3B. Big time power, he's young, walks a ton, hits for power and gets on base. Burke, hitting over .300, Fischer is a guy who'll move fast... he's either a 3B or 1B. Someone will have to DH. Maybe that's Yelich, it'd be nice if a couple of those guys lived up to their projection and could be .240./400/.500 guys like Adams/Wilken or .275/.375/.500 guys like Fischer or a .300/.370./.430 guy like Burke. But... as we know, that seldom happens. Bitonti is not far behind. He seems like a .220/.350/.500 and 30 HR type bat, but Corner OF/1B. Either way, LOTS of power bats. The Willingness to include Wilken so easiyly AND put him in a group with Yoho, Black and Carlos Rodriguez should be a pretty good sign that we're underrating our power. Wilken was leading the Southern League by...again, a lot in OPS and HRs. More when you take out the guy he who was #2 was also a Brewers prospect. .392 OBP, .550 SLG and 18 HRs(Adams=.241/..422/.477 and a 900 OPS with 11 HRs). You really want to trade Wilken or give up a bunch when...both those problems could be solved by June. 1-Frelick-RF 2-Chourio-LF 3-Yelich-DH 4-Contreras-C 5-Turang-SS 6-Vaughn/Adams 1B 7-Mitchell-CF(for however long, then Perkins, a switch hitter and hell, maybe Lara by the end of next year/) 8-Wilken-3B 9-Durbin Bench Jansen, Tyler Black(1B/Corner OF), Ortiz(He'll probably start most game at 1B if he can get his OPS back to 700), Lockridge(CF/LF/RF), and I'm thinking Siegler(C, 3B, OF) or Adams rotating in at DH/1B/LF I'm not real confident in Lockridge, but I was been strongly disliked and hated the Priester trade, the Vaughn trade, absolutely dumbfounded that we had to give up Quintana and Cortes for a AAAA type prospect, but...just means he'll become PCA with a better OBP.
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Carols Rodriguez has no value in a trade at this point. Do you think that may be why you want to trade him for everyone? You realize that? He's a guy with a ERA well over 4 in AAA. We've needed guys who could throw a couple innings or protection numerous times and if we had any confidence in him, we'd have gone with him rather than having to add a guy to the 40 man and use an option. You're not getting a guy with a 60 grade bat and a potential GG 1B... and a guy who can competently play in the OF for that. He's a top 4-6 prospect in the Rays system. They have a top 10 system. He profiles VERY much like a Rays player...a guy who can hit, a little unorthodox for a 1B without great power. They need 1B/DH/Corner OF. I'd expect them to move Yandy Diaz this year as that's how the Rays operate. An older hitter, 12M, final year of his deal... probably not a QO guy(but could be)...Aranda is a 1B/2B/3B guy, not Morgan, but if they move Morgan, they're not giving him away for our scraps. If we could deal Carlos Rodriguez for anyone who was useful in any role... I suspect we'd have done so. He's a guy we trade for another teams scraps if we find a lefty who's flamed out and has something we think we can turn around. He's not the guy you trade for a top ~5 prospect(minus the '25 draft, he's up to 4th in the system, I'd imagine he drops to 5-8 after they had a very deep draft) in a good system. Are you giving up Mike Boeve or...hell, Brock Wilken for pitcher who looks like he MIGHT crack a bad MLB rotation at some point, but more serves as the long man on a bad team.
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Brother... what in the world are you talking about? They have... power hitters ALL over and at EVERY position of the minors. They have mower power in the minors, more HIGH level, top ranked power hitters since.. at least that ~2004 system that had Prince, Weeks, Hart and company... The difference here is they are 3-4 deep at those positions? 1B-Adams(2nd in AA in OPS behind teammate Wilken), Burke, Bitonti-HUGE power(leading the league in HRs). Ernesto Martinez.. Boeve may be more of a "slap hitter," but he's really just a hitter with average power. 2B-Pena, Murray, Adamczewski SS-Made, Pratt-Others, but who cares. Not quite slap hitters. 3B-Wilken-I think he's STILL leading AA in HRs and OPS and Adams was 2nd, Fischer the first rd pick who was a 1st rd pick because of his power, another 1st rd pick Ebel... picked because of his power. C-Qureo, certainly not a "slap hitter," but a defensive stud. Dinges... just a great pure hitter at this level, though the defense is a question...despite elite pop times. I missed so many, but saying that's what our farm system is... you should read up on our farm system a bit more man.
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I mean... when you just run up endless debt, that's going to happen. And then the next discussion is who is responsible for this... and the answer is of course everyone, but who is MORE responsible. then we may go to more recent policy decisions that are making that worse...and then it gets into politics and I do that enough elsewhere. If there's a side of the discussion you want to have beyond that or a solution or suggestion... I'm eager to hear it. The person I know who manages 1.5B is not a Crypto fan. So if you want to explain to me how that's a hedge against our fiat currency, I'd be interested in hearing your take on that. I did just buy a lot of ETH, but... I really did it without knowing why other than Tom Lee. That was the extent of my rationale. It was 2800 and I've seen people saying they think 15-20K in 18-20 months, so I pulled the trigger. Just the share of my investments that are speculative. That's what I consider crypto at this point. I also bought a little over 1BTC when it was not far off ATHs. That's about as big of a chunk as I feel comfortable leaving up to speculative investments(that and I own FUBO as I think it'll pop when Disney completes the takeover which is inevitable). It's hard for me to explain a rationale for investing in Crypto. I can read it's revenue, margins or any fundamentals. It's basically just this agreement or belief that.... we're all going to keep buying this. Gold has intrinsic value. We're just assigning value to Crypto, right? And I get we're assigning a LOT of value to it, but... that's been my issue hereto-now in any event.
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Oooh.... I took a spanking last night...(and the earnings reports did poorly🫢). Seriously though... SMCI... I know they're run poorly, but they're so cheap and expectations were so low...and George lived down to them again! Also, AMD... they actually had a good Quarter. I picked them up after liberation day, so ~84 to 180 to 165, I'll live. They at least have massive tailwinds for Q3 and Q4, so I'll hold. SMCI was sold last night before it dropped under 50. As soon as I saw the EPS and then margins which are 9%? For the demand they should be in? Anyway, both are getting beat up, but AMD had a lot of write offs as they haven't gotten their export license for China, BUT... they are still loading up on the MI300 for China(I think it's MI300). MI355 ramping and they're raising prices in Q3 due to demand and they have the MI400 coming out which compares favorably to the B200 for inference...kinda. The only concern is Trump talking about Semiconductor tariffs coming this week. That's... kinda baffling. May not make much sense to some to hold NVDA and AMD, but AI CapEx is expected to reach 1 TRILLION by 2028. If they would have had China sales for last Quarter, their growth would have been closer to 30% in DC revenue and... they'd be looking at 200 a share. Still have about 20X NVDA as AMD just due to the splits, but I like both. And of course AVGO slots in between the two.
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Of course it's partially because of the rookie class around him... if you had Paul Skenes, Jackson Merrill and Jackson Chourio(or Imanaga...and hell, even Ortiz had 3.1 WAR last year). But even in spite of a down class, as of right now, he should not be in the running. He should be 3rd or 4th on the team. He's obviously the most exciting, talented and , but that's not the criteria. This is obviously selfish. He seems like a great dude and I'm rooting for him to make about 30M less(or more if he career continues along anything close to this trajectory)... but I'm a Brewers fan first and...I want to see 6 more years of Mis in Milwaukee(At least).
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It's really kinda silly that Misi is the favorite at the moment. Or even runner up. Collins and Durbin should both easily clear him...at the moment. Baldwin should be the obvious favorite. I'd say the Brewers vote will split the field, but... it's like Durbin, Collins, Patrick, Logan Henderson may end up in the conversation. He's been as good as Misiorowski for conventional ROY criteria. Just being SUPER talented shouldn't win you the award. You had a guy last year who was 15-3 with a 2.91 ERA and he barely got any votes. Chourio puts up a 4WAR season and he doesn't get 1 first place vote. A rookie pitcher starts 7 games, throws really hard(and he's...really good) and he's gonna win it? And of course it'll only cost us, we won't get a pick. It feels like it shouldn't really matter. If you have a guy finish top 2... you get a pick. I guess all I can hope is that they ramp up the contract extension talks and... it cost us more down the line, but we still sign him for 8 years. I think with this pitcher development, his mentality and eagerness to learn and he's pretty fiery, they're goin to improve the command and he's going to be damn near unhittable.
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That AA team could be a LOT of fun next year. I know if didn't work out great in 2008, but I remember having LaPorta, Salome, Green, Brantley, Gamel, Taylor Green, LoCain, Nomar's brother(though Normah should have played in Milwaukee in stead of Bahston)...I think Maldanado was on that team... among others. So what's the AA team look like potentially? 1B-Burke 2B-Pena SS-Made 3B-Fischer C-Dinges LF-Adamscewski CF-Payne(by some point) RF-Bitonti DH-IDK, Adams, Boeve... neither since they'll be in AAA probably, but I'm kinda reaching after LF. Utility-Dickinson(maybe optimistic). I don't really care who or what they round it out with, there are going to be 5-6 guys at AAA like Pratt, Wilken, Boeve, Adams, Murray...and I suppose Quero starts in AAA again given this has been a bit of a lost-season after a completely lost-season. But I still think he's got a bright future. He's also still young for a well rounded catcher. Just has to get right and sting together a couple good months of health. We may reach a point where Quero and Dinges end up like Salome and Lucroy where the more touted catcher gets passed up for the most steady one.
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LOL...it really does. The Henderson's dropping Logan off in front of the guys! Momma Henderson- "Good lucky Honey! Love you! And make sure you tuck in your jersey!" Logan-"GAWD....stop it Mom, you're embarrassing me in front of Christian and Brandon! And get me some Ranch Sunflower Seeds before the game....I HATE those stupid plain ones." Papa Henderson- "Hey, don't talk to your Mother like that! Your Uniform would still be dirty if not for her."

