BrewerFan

Ok...thanks. So that's likely a season ending injury, but not something that would be an issue into the start of next year like an ACL (unless he ruptured the patellar tendon, but that's...rare from what I understand, but I don't have an MD in front of my name).

Especially if a guy walks a lot, it's like a hidden double 40 times a year. And perhaps in 2 years when we have Luke Adams at 1B, Wilken playing 3B, Pratt/Ortiz at SS, Contreras at C, Chourio with Made, Pena, Payne on the way...you'll find the ideal balance of both. The guys who are incredibly patient(the clones, Adams and Wilken) and should carry high .300 OBPs, the power hitters, 4 or 5 guys who could slug .500. BTW, haven't heard how Wilken and Adams are going health wise. Wilken's seemed ominous, but not necessarily an ACL. Adams seemed like an injury that could be 3 months or 7 days. Hoping for the later. They're both close the way they're dominating the Southern League(though the BA fans will hate them).

This is just...SO huge for this system. To have a guy in AA who would very possibly(probably) be in a big league BP by now in Childers and then have Bryant and I've watched Manfredi the most and he's not Hader, but it's NOT hard to see him taking on that early Hader type role at some point in the future. Oh, and they have Yoho at AAA among other pitchers and numerous others who are still starting and may move to the pen. Just constantly replenishing the pen and it almost reminds you of the Ron Wolf Packers where they were constantly trying to improve the bottom of the roster. A guy like Bryant or Childres in the future for Ty Alexander or whoever. Megill is a pending FA in 2 years(maybe 3) so possibly a trade candidate and we have Uribe who looks like a future closer and all these arms who look like they could just slot into his spot or the taxi squad. Just more depth and more weapons.

So... are you saying they'll go over-slot for a HS arm? I'm kidding, but that has been one of the things I've wanted them to do in recent years. Cam Camminiti, Brecht, Mayfield, Sloan last year...and I liked Gage Jump...but MUCH less than the prep arms. '23 I liked Waldrep...REALLY liked White(though...that would have cost you Pratt most likely or a couple of the picks in Rd 11-20 at LEAST) and then Soto. But I'm primarily looking at just pure talent and hoping the Brewers can develop them. I'm sure if there was an arm the Brewers loved, they'd take him, but their strategy of finding these pitchers who just need to tweak a couple things to unlock levels has been incredible to watch...and not that it needs to be said, but my drafts would look awful compared to the Brewers. That's also why I kinda chuckle when I see the outrage at a pick like Payne and then he signs for more than 75%. Like...I get it, some of you have your own opinions, you actually watch enough of these guys like I do with Football, but most people are just going to MLB Pipeline's rankings to evaluate the pick and complain. I mean, at SOME point we should just... almost blindly trust this front office, no?

You don't think it juuust might lie somewhere in the middle? He's a very good pitcher, a high end #3 who could be a #2 and he's struggled a bit. He had a 2.86 ERA coming in and had shut down the Astsros and Tigers in his two prior starts before the two you cited. I'm sure he'll have to adjust...and his stuff is plenty good that I have no doubt he will, but I think perhaps you're exaggerating how good anyone has suggested he was. I MIGHT say Paul Skenes is a "mythical phenom anchoring a major Legue rotation," Nobody said that about Smith. But I guess I was wrong, this really is just a 'he had a bad start, I'm right,' thread vs a 'he had a good start, I'm right' thread.

They just made a mistake. I don't believe he wasn't going to figure it out with the Brewers. We have how many pitchers who've developed a Change or cutter into their career? Saying he wouldn't have is kinda like saying Freddy Peralta never would have become the pitcher he is as he MAINLY just threw FBs early on. The Brewers just blew this one and that's alright. Henderson, Patrick, Henderson...it's a bit costly(Yophery, #33 and an interesting reliever) but... I think this is grossly understating how hard it is to find starting pitchers. Perhaps because we've been spoiled, but he's playing for a terrible team with poor defense and he's been a #2/#3. He's nowhere near Santana obviously(just as I don't think Pratt will end up Gunnar Henderson from the right side), HOWEVER... he's a guy you can reasonably count on giving you 5-6 innings right now and I think he'll cement that further as he progresses, but if you had him, you also wouldn't need Priester. We gave up a LOT in that trade. The 33rd pick and the bonus pool money that comes with it was enough. What's more, I'd say having those assets, Mis, Henderson, Smith, Patrick as 4 reliable starters... does it "dramatically" alter the long-term outlook? I don't know, that's kinda vague, but it was a significant misstep. In another 2 years, we may have Tyson Hardin, Letson, KC Hunt...Wichrowski, Meccage, Does the #33rd pick, Yophery Rodriguez and a reliever get us Suraez? It might...Or you could have both. That works also. You need 7 or 8 pitchers. Who'd have thought we'd lose probably the #2 and #3 pitchers in our rotation(projecting Cortes and Woodruff as the 2/3 in some manner, even if Woodruff is "only" touching 94-95) and we'd be sending Logan Henderson down after 4 starts with a 1.77 ERA and 3 wins(not that the stat is important, but 4-0 in games he started). ***Again, I think the MORE important thing is to recognize the embarrassment of riches the Brewers have with regard to young arms (which isn't even as impressive as the young bats). And if this and the Reese Olson trades end up being the two worst moves the Brewers make over...~5 years, I'm feeling pretty good moving forward. As for the last part in bold; -I think you can look at how the Dodgers have done things. They seem to make more prospect for prospect trades than anyone, presumably due to 40-man issues since they sign...like... literally 6-8 Cy Young caliber pitchers and many get hurt.

Man, how a few weeks can change things! The FOUR best rookie starters(arguably) with Mis. What it tells me is that...despite making a mistake, the Brewers are one of, if not the best teams at finding Starting Pitching that's not a gimme like Skenes and turning them into qualify MLB starters. Why are we always so eager to close threads? This is about Shane Smith. I don't see anything wrong with tracking how the season plays out. It's not like there are 50 new topics that are just red hot and this is burying others.

If he's playing with an injury or not, it's OBVIOUS he's still a VERY good season. Exit Velo, his hard hit rate. xBA of .276, xSLG of .503... If he's playing through injury, he's still hitting the ball hard and having poor luck. Not wanting to take on that contract... fine, that makes plenty of sense. Mocking the idea like he's not still an exceptional player is silly. A negative war for 80 games...if he's hitting the ball harder than he has, squaring up more than he has... all of the advanced analytics say he's the same player he was in his best years... he's probably still a very good player. I wouldn't be surprised to see a LA or NYM type team trade for him... If the Pirates would eat some of that money on the backend... I could EASILY be convinced to trade for him if the prospects were reasonable. We'll see at the end of the season as we know this won't happen, but I'd be shocked if we get to the end of the season and Collins has been anywhere near as productive as Reynolds has the rest of the way.

It has to be a specific plan for him. I think having him, Edge and Simmons on the field on 3rd downs could be a huge advantage. Simmons... warts and all, but he can get in throwing lanes. Cooper is the more obvious blitzer, but Walker is good in this area as well. I didn't really see a noticeable improvement in Walker last year(I'm not arguing) but we've seen so many flashes from him, it makes a lot of sense they think they can utilize him better in Hafley's system. They also seem high on Simmons. This tells me they're plan for their off-ball LBs is to just simplify the game, give them a very specific responsibility and let them go play freely. That's just my guess. But you're right, Walker was not a 2-gap LBer. McDuffie is the only guy on this team who was best suited to play in a 3-4.

His Fathers position was there was zero guaranteed money in the deal. He took less to play in Baltimore with a team that will make him look better, elite safety play, a good front...everything, so I'm sure he had offers that were higher("I'm sure"=I believe the reports). But if the Packers really wanted him to take a contract with no Guaranteed money? At this point in his career, given all he's done? It's done, but it seems like they were close and each side was very stubborn despite purportedly wanting to make it work. Guess we monitor Asante Samuel, maybe Rasul (he seems like he wants to sign here). Samuel is the upside play, Douglas is the reliable vet. Douglas feels like an obvious choice since you KNOW you're going to be playing a lot of cover 2/3 zone again and that's where he's at his best.

Yeah, this is a...crappy way to look at things, but...does make me feel better! It's unfair to hope the guy fails because we blew this one, but it'd be tougher if he went and won a Cy Young.

Maybe in the NFL, but MLB draft? Just stack your system with the best talent you can and...they'll figure it out. If we have a "problem" with too many MIFers who can hit and run...we'll worry about that in 2-3-4 years when it becomes a problem. Imagine passing on... Mike Trout because you have a great young set of OFers coming up? I agree, if you like Cunningham that much, take him.

Actually, you started out by saying, "I’m sure it is now table stakes for MLB teams to offer their premier pre-arbitration eligible players contract extensions," which infers you're guessing(which...of coure you are as we have no idea) and NOW you're just stating it as a fact. Either way, I'm talking about the Brewers doing it early. Now with Chourio, I said I thought they'd do it almost immediately when the MLB season started...I didn't think it'd come before the season started, but do the Dodgers do it? The Yankees? A lot of these teams either don't or they wait until a player has established themselves as elite. We made no offer to Burnes, Woodruff, Adames, Contreras...according to all of them. SOME teams do it. The Braves certainly do. Cleveland from time to time. Beyond that, VERY few teams would do this a few months in to team control. I would personally be more aggressive and far exceed the Peralta, Ashby offers as... he's just such a unique talent...

So eliminate any motivation he has to sign a long term-contract? No, of course you don't do this. And again, people are really jumping the gun with how inevitable that injury is. I remember the same being said about Hader. Randy Johnson is probably a good comp for a young Mis. For the Brewers, overall, they've been pretty damn good about preventing TJ by not abusing their starters. Also, just gonna leave this here. This doesn't even touch on his last start where Pitching Ninja had some funny posts about Misiorowski. I do suspect after a bad outing people will be far less eager, But that's the only assumption we should make. He's not going to keep up this pace.

Suarez has a OPS near 900 and is on pace for a 5 WAR season McMahon has been hot as of late with an OPS of ~840 in the month and he's been hitting very well on the road. I'm not sure why that's a crazy position. You're comparing a Middle of the Order Bat, a great defensive, but average offensive 3B(who needs to adjust to playing outside Colorado) with one of the worst hitters in the game this year. Of course, I don't know what "likeable" means in this context. KC Hunt or...whoever. But they'd both be able to help quite a bit.

I get that...and to be fair, it'd be much riskier than Peralta or Ashby. Both were signed when they were really iffy about either starting. Peralta has been a great deal, Ashby not a very good one(still has time). You'd be almost certainly be taking a much bigger risk here... so that instinct may be correct. It'll depend on Misiorowski's asking price. We'll likely never hear unless it happens. Skenes almost certainly won't sign because he got...what, 10M in a signing bonus? That's 5M take home Quite a bit different when you get ~2.3 and take home a little over 1M...the risk could either make it a great deal or it could make it a drag on the payroll. I'm betting on that arm, that movement and the Brewers ability to handle pitchers(and get them to unlock that pitch that improves their whole repertoire. A Change he can throw in the mid 80s in his case could make everything else look that much better...when he comes back to reality). In fact, if it were up to me, I'd sign just about every pitching scout, coach and everyone in the front office to about 2X the average salary and a looong term contract! But we won't do that, so we'll focus on the actual players. For the time being, I'll just appreciate having him for 5-6 more years and then dread the "it's time to trade Mis," but that's 2030's problem I guess!

Gasser is a soft tossing lefty. But sure, you should probably assume a pitcher will have a TJ. The Brewers seem as though they've been better than just about anyone else at keeping their young arms healthy and acclimating them to the stresses and rigors of pitching than anyone, but sure. How long do you wait and see though? Paul Skenes is probably already going to be 200M+ to extend. There's a risk with every pitcher, every position. This is definitely where I am as well. As you said, Hiura would be costing us money right now. Hardly devastating...but it'd hurt. Others who I'd have done this for, Hader, Williams, Contreras, there's nothing saying you can't trade them still at some point...and I'd assume we offered at least Hader. Turang...might be the only guy I'd sign right now. Maybe Frelick, I love the guy and how he plays, but he's a corner OFer with little power so it'd really have to be like 7/35 TO of 10M? Unlikely he's going to take that deal. You can always say it's not smart for the player...but look at Hiura. You can talk about the risk to the team...but look at what FA's cost. Paul Skenes(I don't think Mis is Paul Skenes, but...it's hard to find another young pitcher as a comp)...he'll likely get 400M? That's why you get a discount. You guarantee money and they sacrifice two years of service time. No way...they pay him more than a Peralta like deal? I'd almost guarantee they'd pay several times more than what Peralta got RIGHT NOW. Peralta was GTD 15.5M. You really think there's no way the Brewers would start the negotiations higher than that range? Ashby signed a "Peralta like" deal...he got more, but that's almost insulting and kinda a silly point to start. I was thinking you wait until after the season when he's experienced some ups and downs and you talk about a 6-year 60M extension with 2TOs and incentives in there. There is risk to injury... and there's risk to inaction. The risk to injury is being really exaggerated here. He has a TJ, he misses a year...like most pitchers and he's back. And that's IF it happens before he's ~31/32.

So... @ghostdrewwhat exactly is it that you're disagreeing with? I see the notification where you disagreed. What exactly do you disagree about? There are MANY who are far better with the basic MiLB rules and whatnot, but this one is pretty simple, yet you misquoted me a couple times and you don't agree with this?

No, that's not what I'm saying. I'm saying what I said; If you're 18 or younger when you sign(as of June that year) you have 5 years before you're rule 5 Eligible. If you're 19 or older when you signed, you have 4 years. So being as Wood, a player drafted out of COLLEGE was older than 19, he is rule 5 eligible. HS players...are usually going to have 5 years(Bitonti for example or Payne from last year). I'll just cut and paste this here so as to clear up any confusion. So College player-19 or older. HS players-18 or younger.

. Right...and notice I didn't say he was drafted and signed WHEN he was 19. I said AFTER he was 19. If you're 18 or younger when you sign(as of June that year) you have 5 years before you're rule 5 Eligible. If you're 19 or older when you signed, you have 4 years. It's easy enough to look up Rule5 Eligibility.

This will be his 4th year in the organization. 4 years...signed after he was 19. And if you're questioning him being worthy...given it's just a comprehensive list, that'd explain that. But also; .280/.377/.520 line in AA. Seems like the type of catcher the Brewers should try and keep around. And that's with a .244 BABIP.

Should be a fun one. As you'll go into far greater detail, I'll it a go. This seems as though it's going to be tougher than normal. I see 15 players who COULD be removed or will be via Free Agency. Those underlined are FAs. I have Quintana, Rob Zastryzny(depending on the year, trade perhaps, but 0 options), Hoskins, Cortes, Woodruff, E. Rodgriguez, Haase(guessing they go with Quero, but with Hoskins leaving, I MIGHT keep him), Tyler Alexander, Daz Cameron, Easton McGee, Connor Thomas, Monasterio or Dunn, Avans, Grant Anderson? -POSSIBLE re-signings Woodruff...there are a dozen variables. Does he pitch well enough to earn another deal, does he limp along and the Brewers take another Jimmy Nelson flier hoping he will. Does he only start to return -Hasse Good catchers are not easy to find, Dinges is coming along great, but can Siegler really catch at the MLB level? Might be good to have a 3rd option with Quero and Contreras. -Quintana? I don't think so, but... you'd be crazy to not want him back at ~2.5M. But I suspect after a year with this Brewers defense, ~160IP and a ~3.90 ERA, he'll get 10-12 elsewhere. I might be jumping the gun on Zastyzny. He's been p Zastryzny - He's been pretty effective, I'm just looking at Ashby, Hall, Koenig...and perhaps Manfredi? Anthony Seigler-I have no idea what's up with him. I read his scouting reports from the day with the Yankees and he has pop times of 1.87 to 1.97, he's smooth as a receiver, I have watched less MiLB this year than ever before(I watched a ton before last year). Coleman Crow, Seems like he's finally healthy and throwing well. Etnesto Martinez both seem like locks (never thought I'd say that about Martinez). Martinez has become a selective hitter with power. I feel like he could put up a ~.225/.335/450 line and play great defense at 1st. Freddy Zamora? I don't know if he's more than a defensive SS who'll put up a .600 OPS, but he's playing well. Ethan Murray? Is he a prospect still or if he just putting up numbers this year. Russell Smith-6'7 lefty that throws mid 90s out of the pen (Though I've seen very little of him, so I'm going off the scouting report. I thought he was low 90s as a starter (more like 88-92) but I guess in short outings. Justin Yeager? Blake Holub? Both guys throw hard, but Yeager at least seems stuck. I'll go with Martinez, Crow, Seigler, Russell Smith I guess. We'll likely add 4-5 guys from other teams. And we're probably going to keep some guys on the 40 that I took off because...we always do... such as Jay over Shane Smith last year.... not going to sit here...thinking about what this team would look like with 6.5 years of Shane Smith, and Freddy Peralta with Mis coming up now and no need to give up the 33rd pick and Yophery Rodriguez(and a nice arm)....nope! Not....gonna do that! But I look forward to hearing from someone who knows more than just the box scores.

We already have the Yankees, Dodgers fans, the Giants, Cubs...all joking(sorta) about how good Mis is going to look in their uniforms when he's 30 years old. Without an extension, we all know it's likely to be sooner than that if he's anything close to the pitcher we've seen thus far. Of course, we ALL know that 3 2/3 IP, 6BB 7 ER game is coming. He's not prime Bob Gibson, Sandy Koufax(or whatever other great) right out of the gate, so there will be some bumps along the way. That said... he's got very few peers in this game in terms of pure stuff. Jacob deGrom was the BEST case scenario from the time we drafted him until now. The best case scenarios are almost ALWAYS just...unrealistic, but that's how we do it. You squint, picture the best possible version and development and see what type of player he can become. Cooper Pratt is a RHed Gunnar Henderson, Chourio is Ronald Acuna Jr, so on and so forth. But while I don't think Misiorowski is going to be able to continue to just fire half his Fastballs by Hitters at 100MPH and just make hitters look foolish, I do think he's a special talent(that feels like an understatement at this point). Hell, he almost makes the deGrom comp seem feasible(minus deGrom's command, but I'm not expecting deGrom, Pro-You get cost certainty, you give Mis some financial security, he's young enough that he could still get a massive contract at the end. Cons-Injury. It's a pitcher, it's invariably injury. Is it "just" TJ? Is it a shoulder? I'd also mention that Burnes and Woodruff have both suffered injuries toward the end of team control or in Burnes case, the year immediately upon signing. This kid just turned 23 years old. I feel like 8 years at 70M, 10M signing bonus+2 option years at say...35M per year with a 5-10M buyout. That'd bring the GTD money to 8/80M. You could add bonuses. His salary goes up 2.5M per year if he wins a Cy Young, 2M if he finishes top 3, 1.5 for a top 5....something like that. It's a salary that is clearly not cheap for the Brewers, but it's NOT a contract that would be some albatross. So there's some reason for him to sign, some reason for him not to. But I picture a Paul Skenes scenario. The Pirates got him last-year...and they're already talking about how it makes more sense to trade him and start a rebuild than to build around him and try and compete. To me, this would come down to Misiorowski...obviously. Does he want to risk that he'll stay healthy? And argument could be made, even if were to deal with injuries, teams would look at his pure stuff and spend in hopes that he'll stay healthy. And if the first two starts are any indication, he could become a FA at 30 and command 40-45M a year(in today's money, 8 years time, that'll likely be 50-60M a year). But never having to worry about money again is a helluva consolation prize and it's the only way the Brewers can have an ace atop their rotation past his service time. I'd say it's worth making the offer. And hell, I'm probably short, 8 years 100M with 2 option years is probably more likely, but...even then you get Chourio, Made, Pena, Pratt, Wilken, Adams, Lara, Turang., Quero to anchor the lineup(plus a dozen other options which will only increase with the draft) and you have your foundational CFer. And you get Misiorowski, Henderson, Letson, Knoch, Hardin, Rodriguez, Patrick, Priester... and a dozen other young arms working their way up(KC Hunt and it's just too long to list everyone). But you have that foundational Gm1 pitcher. I'm sure people will say I'm jumping the gun because of 2 measly starts and 11 no-hit innings, but that's not it. When he can throw with a BIT better command and he can throw something that sits around 84-85 so he can really change velocity... what the hell is THAT gonna look like? Just anything where he can change speeds a bit better. 90-92MPH Change ups, 92-94 MPH CB, a mid 90s slider and a 101 FB...it's a lot of fun, but he's STILL got room to grow and he'll still suffer growing pains. ****Speaking of Paul Skenes, what if this kid goes wins the damn ROY? Now that's changing the equation even more. Still...now is the time to make the offer. This season. Maybe over the ASB, maybe after the season(assuming he doesn't win the ROY). -And again, I know this is early, but...that's the only time you can get it done. I'm ready to sign Jesus Made to a 12 year 100M dollar deal now and let him spend 3 more years in the minors! Do the same with Pena, Pratt and Quero! 8 years 50M for the rest of them! Thoughts? (And sorry, not trying to turn this into a...countdown on his team control, but...from the first time we call him up, that's just the reality of it.)

Yeah...with the possible exception of maybe a 15 day DL stint maybe around the break or skipping a turn to try and let him limit his innings, he's going to be up the rest of the year. Peralta, Woody hopefully healthy, Mis and I may bring Henderson keep Patrick...and Priester, Quintana... Man, we've got a lot of really nice arms and if Woody comes back, even takes a while to get going, can only throw well for 4 innings the first several times out, we're good. And then next year, you add Gasser back and you have Yoho, several others who can help us out of the pen. Hardin, Hunt, how many others, Rodriguez...I have a bad feeling Patrick may face some Myers type adjustments. And in another year from now we may be talking about some other young arms working their way to Milwaukee. Letson and company. Knoth a bit behind with the TJ, but then who the hell knows who we'll draft with all these picks. Is our pitching set up as well as our position prospects?

I thought he was more similar to Amos. Very reliable, good vs the run. Never the big play guy, but a pretty good, reliable safety.