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When does Arnold start to receive some criticism
BrewerFan replied to brewers888's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Seriously? This is now the argument? You were talking about how it made PRE-arbitration players more expensive. Now it's about how the best players in pre-arbitration will make more money when they get to arbitration(as if that...hasn't ALWAYS been the case). But no, that money does NOT impact their contracts or their arbitration timelines. It's just a bonus pool handed out to players who win awards or perform the best from that year. It doesn't change anything once you get to arbitration... If a player wins an MVP in the first three years, he's going to start arbitration higher. Now under the current system, he's going to get money from the bonus pool. That's not costing the Brewers more money than it would have otherwise(beyond the 1.67M they pay into the pool). Ok...so then it DOES have something to do with the inflation of the top players salaries? Odd that you argued that point initially, but...there we go. We agree now. Yup. I'm...apparently missing that because I'm not upset about the variety? That makes absolutely no sense, but sure. And if they DIDN'T offer that variety, you'd bemoan the lack of effort to generate revenue. I don't even know what point you're attempting to make here. People go to the games, they sell things every game. What's the problem? What on Earth are you ACTUALLY complaining about? Then prey-tell, why don't you share your revenue generating ideas? I can see why this would be upsetting to you😉 And by that do you mean NOT spend time making contradicting arguments while bemoaning the market size that will invariably limit the Brewers revenue compared to the top teams? Yeah...I....I guess I will keep doing that. -
MLB formally reinstates Pete Rose, Shoeless Joe Jackson
BrewerFan replied to LouisEly's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Lets stop even bringing up Ty Cobb's name when it come to racism in general. It seems like outside of a drunk writing a fictional book, his family and he were both...the antithesis of racists. He defended a young black mascot for the Tigers on the road, met with Jackie when he was allowed to play(he advocated for integration)...his family had a history of fighting for black men's rights. His Grandparents were abolitionists(though mine were...pretty racist, so that's not the most compelling I suppose). There's a lot of other anecdotal evidence that suggests Al Stump just made up most of the stories. The beating of a black bellhop. I also realize the point was simply made that during the ERA in which he(and Reggie) played there was a great deal of racism... which is clearly true, but it doesn't feel accidental that Ty Cobb is mistakenly used as the poster boy for it when you could more easily argue he was well ahead of his time. -
MLB formally reinstates Pete Rose, Shoeless Joe Jackson
BrewerFan replied to LouisEly's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
He did a really bad job of throwing those games. -
Oh...I'm sorry. See, now I thought there WAS room for an opinion in discussing a hypothetical. My mistake. Yeah, they were losing by 3 points in the 1st quarter and had the ball in the game he went down. Not exactly "Losing badly," they were down by 2 points with 2:30 to go in the first game of the series he played....not exactly "getting clobbered." But hey, if it's your OPINION that being Down by 2 with 2:30 in Game 2(the 1st game of the series Dame played) and down by 3 when Dame got hurt is "losing badly," who am I to deprive you of your opinions. He was injured to START the series, so I kinda thought the whole "if healthy" thing was...obviously based on opinions(which there are no room for here I guess)... They also lost another game with him when they were up 7 with ~40 seconds left. So if I'm counting right, that's 3 games that were close, two with a STILL injured but playing Dame. So that's 3 games. Yes, I'm aware. But I did. See... was my opinion....which I couched by also agreeing with you that when you build an older roster, that's an inherent risk. But being as Lillard didn't play the first game and they were decidedly NOT "getting clobbered" when he went down and then given what happened to the Celtics, it seems like a moot point, but...kinda my apologies on thinking there...was "room for opinion."
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I'm not sure about that. If they'd have just kept Middleton and then stayed healthy, the way things have worked out, I think it's entirely possible they could have won the East. The Pacers are no juggernauts and the Knicks are good, but...again... But Middleton was consistently hurt and we weren't healthy(part of roster construction as you pointed out). Look at Boston though. They looked like they had a 3-4 year run on their hands and now they lose in 6 and next year is a lost year as well. They may win 50 games, but...Jrue is old, Horford older, Porzingas injury prone. White and Brown. Two good players and closing in on 500M in roster costs.
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Likely? I don't think they're as good as Houston...despite their awful OL and the Colts are talented. I hated that trade for the Jags. If they win the division it's because it's just a weak division, but they're not a good team. Hunter is really good, but I don't like trading up unless you're close to being a contender or it's for a REALLY good QB. The Browns are probably as likely to be picking atop the draft next year, so...fine, DT, OL, +1st and they got other picks as well. The only WR I'd consider moving up for like that would be Smith from OSU and he's not coming out until '27. But with 2 1sts, they can keep adding picks for future years and assuming they're picking 1st next year....which I would not count out, they could have enough to actually make a move when Arch and Smith come out in '27(assuming Manning is A-Good enough and B-Actually stays at UT for 2 more years). It at least appears as though they have a plan to build something.
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When does Arnold start to receive some criticism
BrewerFan replied to brewers888's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Oh my! WHAAAT! We're in a small market! No!!!!! Has this EVER been disputed on this board by anyone? Everyone on this board has already acknowledged this and was having a bit more of a nuanced discussion about the spending in Baseball and how it's grown from the Yount, Molitor days when you claimed the Brewers also couldn't spend on more than 1 or 2 players(but they could) and the inflation in salaries that you said...didn't exist. I'm not even sure what you're saying right now other than the sky appears to be blue. Of course it's a small market. Green Bay is also a small market. Right...or I fundamentally disagree with you. Yeah...no. Starting backwards, the 50M dollar pool that each team pays 1.67M dollars into is what you're claiming raises the "salaries" of young players and funnels talent from the have nots to the haves? THEY'RE GETTING PAID OUT OF THE POOl. It's not doing ANY of that. Expanded playoffs are BAD...because depth is more important and as such...teams with money benefit? You're clearly arriving at a conclusion and working backwards. Here is the FULL extent of the argument that can be made that the 2022 CBA "Hurt" small market teams(if you're paying attention). The large market teams who pay into revenue sharing... each team contributes 48% of its local revenues—such as income from regional television contracts, ticket sales, and local sponsorships and they pool that money and distribute it. Those teams were complaining that there were other teams who were not spending that money and the luxury tax jumped up from 210 to 230 and then small increments. 233, 236...etc... They ALSO added two more thresholds to penaltize the top spending teams including the "Cohen" Tax, but that's the full extent of it. Trying to add on "higher salaries for pre-arbitration players," is...either you don't know where the money was coming from or you were being intellectually dishonest. The MOST it can cost a team is...again, 1.67M and it's not "funneling" young talent from the "haves to the have nots." Softening rebuilds with a lottery has nothing to do with large or small markets. It's a draft lottery. It's trying to get rid of tanking. Yeah, I don't need to ask myself why the Brewers and literally every other team in pro sports are trying to generate revenue via jersey sales. It's self explanatory and in absolutely no way addresses how the Brewers are "horrible" at marketing and have no heritage. As I said, that's such a silly thing to zero in on that it's not even worth debating, but NOW you're asking me why the Brewers try and sell different Jersey's? So is that them being horrible at their job or not? So...I guess they shouldn't be trying to sell jersey's because... I don't know, I've lost your point in here. It's a bad thing to try and sell 12 different uniforms, something you apparently believe is unique to the Brewers but also, they've exhausted all avenues to make money(which would infer they're doing a good job, but again, I'm just trying to follow this argument here). I'm honestly not sure what point you're making at the end of this. -
1-Adames had ONE window to make his money. Counsell has a 20-30 year window(edit--a 20-30 year window on TOP of his MLB career). 2-The Brewers DID make a competitive offer to Counsell(5.5M) and he DID NOT LET THEM MATCH, instead claiming he "wanted a new professional challenge." He choose the Brewers most hated Rivals(well, not hated so much as pretentious). 3-Willy didn't grow up in Milwaukee, he wasn't raised in the Brewers clubhouse, he didn't present himself as the hometown boy who exceeded all expectations and came back to manage the team his dad worked for...only to leave to the highest bidder under the absurd premise of doing it...not for himself, but for every other one of those poor managers out there, managing Baseball games for less than 7 million a year! Righting such a grievous inequity that only our hero CC could do(though in fighting for managers, he was willing to screw a couple others over in the process...). Or...I could just as easily go with the fourth reasons; 4-Because I want to, I like Wily, but I don't like chicken little.
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Sometimes it's so thick people don't put it in blue...but IS this sarcasm? Soto turned down a similar amount of money from the Yankees. Not the same, but similar. Adames said he'd take less, but it was never feasible. Why would I boo a guy who loved Milwaukee, Milwaukee loved him and we just didn't have the resources to sign? Nah, I'll be cheering him(I won't literally be as I'm probably not going, but...I would be...though obviously not rooting for him).
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When does Arnold start to receive some criticism
BrewerFan replied to brewers888's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
How is the last CBA relevant to that??? Or that Pete Crow Armstrong will hit ~45 HRs or that Carson Kelly will have an OPS over 1.000 I agreed with the rest but...I'm trying to be succinct(it's not a strong suit🤷♂️). -
When does Arnold start to receive some criticism
BrewerFan replied to brewers888's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Yeah, you may be right. There is a lot of talk about MLB trying to impose a cap this year. At the rate things are going, I think you could set an inflated cap of...say 270M. I don't know if you make it a hard cap or not. But you're talking about a LONG lock out most likely. We've kicked this can down the road so far, I don't know if it's feasible to get it done, but you have even some of the wealthy owners who want it now. If there was a sport to have no cap, Baseball is the best option. And I am still optimistic the Brewers can win. It's going to take good luck, but I think 3-5 years down the road we could have a big window. I also think the best way to combat the salaries is sign guys early. You risk what with Chourio? You could be on the hook for ~80M over 8 years for a guy with poor plate discipline, power a good LFer who provides some value there, The upside...massive. Jesus Made...again, the floor is pretty high given he's a switch hitting MIF at this point. Pratt, Pena...pitchers are more unlikely, but we're coming out way ahead on Peralta+Ashby as of now. It's a very thin needle to thread, but I think given our resources, we're threading it as well as we can... -
When does Arnold start to receive some criticism
BrewerFan replied to brewers888's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
To point A-Who said that means the Brewers are generating double what it was 20 years ago? I'd guess we probably ARE generating close to double what we were 20 years ago, but...that's not the point. The difference is now the top teams are spending 4X at much as they were then. You have 4 teams over 270 in payroll and there was one team spending a ton in 2005(the Yankees) and then MAYBE you'd have Boston spending over 100M and everyone else was under 100M. The Dodgers are probably paying 5-6X more when you include the luxury tax. Hell, they paid more last year just in the luxury tax than everyone BUT the Yankees 20 years ago. So yeah...I think the inflation of the top players salaries and the inflation of TV deals have caused the gap. You made the claim the Brewers have NEVER been able to pay more than one player and then cited the Yount, Molitor days...and they were able to field a financially competitive team. They WERE able to pay 4-5 players among the top in the league at their position. Maybe not all at the VERY top, but it'd be like having 4-5 guys making 25-35M in this era. That's a pretty stark contrast. A top 5 payroll right now would mean we'd have ~150M more to spend. A stark contrast. 20 years ago we also weren't spending tens of millions of dollars in Latin America or in a new AZ facility that's helped us become one of the best teams at maximizing the pitching talent we have. I don't know how the last CBA "kills teams like the Brewers." If rewards them with draft picks if they have rookies who hit bench marks, it pools money to pre-arby players...it adds playoffs spots, it added the DH so Jimmy Nelson would have pitched at possibly an elite level for a period of time with Woody, Burnes and Peralta if we had that, but...that's not Brewers-centric. The ONE thing it did was take the teams like the Mets and the Dodgers and penalize them even MORE for their insane spending...which gets spread out. 9 teams last year were in the luxury tax. That benefits the Brewers. What part "kills" the Brewers? AS for the Brewers doing a terrible job, that's...I'm not even going to bother responding to that. I find it to be ridiculous and...I'm not sure what you're looking for, but no fan base in Baseball supports it's team at a PER CAPITA level like the Brewers. So...yeah, I don't care about Jersey's or anything else. I like going and watching the Brewers play. I like the things they're doing at the park. I'm not sure where you're getting that they're terrible at branding and have no heritage and I can't debate such a...subjective opinion, so I won't. I will say it seems like some people are so incessantly negative...it feels like you could look 90 minutes South and find a team that...they've got a whole Wrigleyville, they have "Heritage," I guess. And that's not me saying, 'why don't you go be a fan of the Cubs,' it's just me just not understanding how people can be so relentlessly negative about seemingly EVERY aspect of the Brewers organization. Kinda feels like they've been doing something right. -
When does Arnold start to receive some criticism
BrewerFan replied to brewers888's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
The guy who owns roughly 1/3rd of the team in the smallest market in baseball and who's net worth is less than at least two MLB players now? Why not blame Giannis? He's pulling in ~100M a year. The Uihlein Family or the Hawks owner Tony Ressler who are each worth ~11B dollars. Or the uncertainty of the Brewers baseball situation or revenue sharing or a million other things beyond the face of the owner not spending money for...what player? Who was the player that we should have signed? I'll assume it wasn't the SS who is currently putting up 0.0 WAR and signed a 7/182M deal(though I think we could have overpaid by less and gotten him for 7/170) for a guy who'll turn 30 later this season. They didn't have Braun, Cain and Yelich? It's got a little to do with inflation. The Brewers gave Yount the largest contract in MLB History at 3/9.3M, they had Stubbs as the largest FA signing for what seemed like a paltry 2/6M IIRC, Bill Wegmen was getting 2.4M, Teddy Higura had a deal in the 4/14M range, just shy of 5M a year, Molitor was being paid ~3.5M. This was the period where the salaries really started to explode and eventually led to the lockout in 1994. The Brewers in 1990 had the 5th largest payroll at ~20M and by 1992 despite continuing to spend, they were at about 31M, about average(Toronto was the leader at ~45M). And if you're just going back to higher end deals... they have outpaced ANY other manner of inflation, CPI or the Average Salary, the Minimum salary. You went from ~1M to start the 80s(Nolan Ryan 4/4.5M) to Young ~3/9.3M to 2000 Albert Bele 12M to 15M for Kevin Brown by 2010 Johan Santana was making 20M a year, Arod 33M, 2020-both leagues are about the same at ~37M, 2025 now we're got Soto making up to 805B over 15 years and Ohtani earning 70M a year and you can calculate that however you'd like as he's not going to have to pay Social Security, medicare, disability or the 13.3% state income tax as those are only collectible at the time paid. So he'll save 100M or more by deferring the money...obviously less than one could expect to earn on it, but as pretty significant jump. So yeah, a lot of it, especially for the top tier players is related to inflation in their salaries. To deny that is...to deny the sun is hot or water is wet. -
When does Arnold start to receive some criticism
BrewerFan replied to brewers888's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
No, they absolutely do not. They both had something wrong with their lower back. Bryant has a degenerative disc issue in his lower back. That's NOT what Yelich had. Yelich had a microdiscectomy. There isn't a procedure to fix Bryant's. The outlook for Yelich is a full recovery and regaining full mobility and strength. Bryant's is Ongoing chronic pain, mobility issues that continue to worsen. -
When does Arnold start to receive some criticism
BrewerFan replied to brewers888's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
1-If you're an elite defender up the middle with a good hit tool AND you hit for power, you're not available when the Brewers are drafting. In any event, Frelick and Turang are hardly the problem on this team. 2-How do you view Durbin as the "main piece?" They traded two players in their final years under team control. Two pitchers. Williams best WAR in his career had been 2.6. Nestor Cortes, also in the last year of his deal was coming off a 2.8 WAR as a good starting pitcher....a #3 starter and then had put up a 4.4 WAR and a 2.8 WAR in 3 of the last 4 seasons. Seems like it was Cortes for Williams with Durbin thrown in...the Brewers have a ton of BP arms and several minor league starters who could be thrown into the pen. They're not lacking in power. Hoskins, Chourio, Yelich, Conreras...and I don't know what we want from Turang. He's pretty much been everything I'd hoped for this year. I've said for years I thought he was a Trea Turner-lite type player. Wouldn't hit for the power Turner has, but he's hit for a solid average, walk, steal a lot of bases and be versatile. He's hitting nearly .300 with an OBP in the .375 range, his exit velo has taken a big jump. 3B was always going to be a problem. SS has become one and then just...players are struggling. Yelich, he's healthy, in the lineup everyday, just not hitting. Chourio, similar to last year, starting slow...Contreras, I doubt at this point of his career he just can't hit and Hoskins has been a good hitter. And then they lost most of a rotation. You want to assign blame? Ok...life's not fair. We can't bring in Arrenado(who would likely reject the trade anyway) and couldn't sign players who weren't available in a weak 3B market. I DID like the idea of signing Iglesias and playing him at 2B with Turang shifting to SS and Ortiz staying at 3B. The whole "Ortiz has a strong arm," was a bad argument from the start as was the "Turang's been so good at 2nd, better to leave him there. The main argument was Ortiz arm(at least on here). It had the same grade on it. Pointing to Baseball Savant velocity from the IF is totally useless. You get more on the ball at 3B and SS than 2B where you're either falling away from the bag or it's a shorter throw, but Turang has more than enough arm to play SS. But I don't think anyone anticipated Ortiz replacing Adames production, I think Chourio+Yelich being healthy+Hoskins bouncing back would make up for it. I also don't think anyone anticipated Ortiz bottoming out at a 450 OPS or whatever it may be... You want to put the blame somewhere? How about a 21 year old kid who is struggling to hit the ball and swinging at everything. A kid who'll almost certainly pick it up. An older LF back from...well...back surgery who struggling and a Catcher who is about 170 points under his SLG from the previous 3 seasons. He had about as minor a back surgery as you could have. He said he'd "never felt better" toward the end of last year and even talked about being back in the cage. His exit velo and hard hit rate is within a normal range. His chase and whiff is off. He'll hit better or he won't, but it doesn't seem as though his back has anything to do with his struggling. It's a team playing without a catalyst(other than Turang at times). You'll see Chourio start to heat up and I would GUESS that would lead to Yelich and Contreras reverting back closer to expectations and the offense will pick up. The left side of the IF will very likely continue to be a black hole offensively, but even with Ortiz, it's nearly certain to improve. People are seemingly giving up on this season like...21-25 on May 17th is the end of the season. I'm not. Once we get closer to the midpoint would be a better time to evaluate and I suspect they'll be squarely in the playoff race. Beyond THAT as far as "blaming Arnold," I'll blame him when our IF has Pratt, Made, Turang and Wilken, Quero/Contreras at Catcher Chourio, Payne in the OF with...a dozen different possible combinations for DH(Adams, Burke, Bitonti, Boeve, Pena, Lara...Frelick, Mitchell or one of the 5 guys we draft this year in the lineup.) Oh, and a staff that...without any big surprises looks like it'll pretty safely include Misiorowsk, Henderson, Gasser, Letson, Meccage...and that's assuming Myers, Ashby, Hall, Patrick, Rodriguez, none of them pan out. As for the Pen, let me quote Fangraphs; I'll "blame" him for building one of the best young farm systems while remaining competitive save for the first 46 games of this year. I MIGHT blame him for trading Yophery and the 33rd pick, but...pretty much every time they target a young arm, they seem to make it work, so I'll hold off on the judgement there. I'll put even money we end up winning that trade as we end up losing it. So sure, I'll "blame" Arnold. There's a strong overreaction on here about a mediocre start to the year that's become more pronounced this past 10 days. But the future looks incredible and even this season is HARDLY over. -
Those Hawks 1sts, swaps+a few seconds and then you need...Devin Vassell, Keldon Johnson, Malaki Branham, Blake Wesley, and multiple first-round picks to the Bucks in exchange for Antetokounmpo. #2 this year, #14, 2026 Swap option. Best of SA, ATL picks. 2027 ATL pick and then a 2031 SAC pick no protections. I guess then you try and keep Jericho Sims, Porter, whoever...not that there's a ton of value there, but, just try and build players trade value over the next couple years and keep flipping them for picks and take big swings in the draft... Or, again, maybe sign Cooper Flagg up for free uber eats, cover all of expenses, wait for a historic start to his career and then get in Nicos ear...tell him he's looking a big chubby...and who knows! But outside of OKC, SAS make sense. Most likely, we're a 49 win team in Milwaukee next year.
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He would fit that team like a glove. The Spurs also didn't go to the playoffs when David Robinson got hurt...yet they had a dominant big who helped them win a title a year later...and then were contenders the rest of Robinson 's career. Mix Giannis, Wemby and then they have cap space, they have athletic wings. You send AJ Green with Giannis and you have...a great fit. Add Giannis and that's a 55 win team next year. It's just a problem because they don't really the players who I think they'd trade to make this work. But they have several draft picks who could be very valuable. But just in terms of teams, outside of OKC, I don't know if you could find a better fit. He and Wemby would be interchangeable at the 4 and 5, they can defend the rim, they are mobile and this would be the ideal mentor for Wemby.
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Top 10 prospects in Need of a Promotion
BrewerFan replied to jay87shot's topic in Brewers Minor League Talk
I'm most worried about the blue chip prospects(which I don't suppose is a hot take). Let them put up just...ridiculous numbers in A ball ALL YEAR. Let them get comfortable, get used to playing full-season Baseball. They'll go through struggles(or...maybe they won't). But then next year, start them in Appleton, if they perform well, Biloxi end of June or so and...play it by ear. Even on that timeline, you've got two MIFers who would be on the doorstep at 19/20 years old. And then you just leave Made and potentially Pena in AAA until they agree 10 year extension as well! I'm not 100% serious, but thinking about what that dude is capable of as a SS/3B, a SHer, the easy bat speed and exit velocity like he's using metal bats. Love to see him and Jackson playing 5-6 years together! -
Rule 5 to CWS - Shane Smith Discussion Thread
BrewerFan replied to jesusoftheapes's topic in Brewers Minor League Talk
All I see is we got rid of a pitcher who is 1-7 and doesn't know how to win games! (2025...I don't actually need blue font, do I? You guys all get it). -
Getting a happy and healthy Jaire back would be...akin to the Packers getting back a healthy and dominant Brandon Woodruff. It doesn't just impact him, it would slide everyone down a bit and take pressure off so many other players. On another note, anyone hear even rumors that Jaire was upset this off-season? This seemed like it was almost exclusively the Packers who were not pleased with the arangement. Gute made the comments, pretty clearly expressing frustration in Jaire(we later heard from Demovsky more about it, though I don't know how much he hears vs guesses about). There were rumros there was a trade worked out, but Jaire wouldn't take a pay cut(makes sense). And the same was true for coming back to GB. But though all of this, he was shown working out with X and Jordan Love was talking about him campaigning for him to be back...and he just seems like a bit of an odd dude, maybe he won't play through injury like others will, but he always seemed like a pretty good clubhouse guy. Even when he made himself the captain in Carolina, it seemed innocent(ridiculous) but...fairly innocent. 'I think coach forgot I was from Carolina, so I just went out there.' Perhaps I'm missing something though. I'm sure he wasn't pleased to hear the Packers wanted to get rid of him but weren't willing to just let the guy leave as a FA so he could sign on somewhere else, wanted him to take a cut, publicly questioned his toughness and made the whole thing drag out...and despite that, far as I know, he's been...pretty mature about it. ***This also makes me think they HAD to have missed out on some CB targets. A bad FA class, I thought a great draft class, but nobody tested. I'm guessing you'll see every CB who can at the combine testing next year. At least the 40 and then their vertical and one of the agility. Johnson and Morrison were projected top 10 picks...
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Well...I'm not just looking at it as total numbers of yards, I'm looking at the way the Backs styles mix and how efficient, not just how many yards they run for. The offensive line could look a LOT different. LT-Walker was a very poor run block. I think they'll try Belton out at OT and RG. Morgan will do the same. I think if Walker gets beaten out, they might just move Tom over to LT and Belton COULD win the job at RT or RG. LG-Jenkins fell off last year, but Brooks is a very good run blocking LG. C-Myers out, Jenkins in should be a huge upgrade. RG-Sean Rhyan was a terrible pass blocker the year before, but then kinda flipped last year. He was very good at pass blocking but the 86th ranked run blocker for a Guard. RT-He's good. So we upgraded at LG, C and RT is already very good. You have last years 1st rd pick and this years 2nd rd pick who will be competing for the two weakest spots on the OL, LT, RG. So our OL wasn't a very good run blocking OL last year and they've made investments in the position. On top of THAT, John Fitzpatrick, another Georgia Bulldog is a 6'7, 265LB TE who is a stud in run blocking. But more than that, I think all three backs are a little different. Jacobs is a battering ram, but for context, his average yards before contact last year was worse than it was during his time in Oakland. He was getting hit after 2 yards(2.2 in Oakland...which isn't a big difference, but one of the big talking points was that our OL would be so much better than Oakland's). And again, they ran almost entirely gap scheme last year because they didn't really have someone capable of running that outside zone. Jones, when he was here and we ran that outside zone, he was able to get the edge and he was going for 3.4-3.5 yards before contact and averaging 5+ Yards Per Carry. I'm not comparing Jacobs to Jones, there's a use for both of them and Jacobs just softening the defense up is extremely valuable, he was a workhorse...but again, it's that core staple of the run game, that outside zone that sets up so much of the offense. So Jacobs is the workhorse...obviously. Wilson...IMO, has really good feet and underrated vision and speed, but the key is Lloyd. I think he can be that guy who can come in and be the change of pace. He's 5'8, 220, similar size to Jones but a bit bigger. More explosive athletically(testing anyway) and more elusive. I could see it looking more like the 49ers when they had a number of RBs and they would run Deebo at RB at times, a role Savion Williams should be able to handle...of occasion at 6'4 230(maybe Patterson is a better comp as a rookie while he hopefully develops into a more well rounded WR). They were a really good run team last year but I think they can get more efficient. Both of the players they drafted, most importantly Belton, he ran a hybrid scheme at NC State where they ran a lot of zone blocking, but also gap. It doesn't happen in a vacuum though. I think it's a given our passing game is better next year. It has to be if we're going to more of a threat and competitive vs the best teams. Wicks more than doubled his drop rate, Reed's went from 3% to 12%, Doubs doubled, Kraft went from 0 to 7.1%. So that's why I think our run game should be better. Less men in the box, we WON'T be the worst in the league in drops(I'd hope) and both of those build off each other. It starts up front though and we've invested in our OL, we've invested in RB, WR, TE and just paid our QB. So whatever it takes to keep the chains moving as that was a weakness as well. Tampa Bay last year was a more efficient team in the run game and they converted over 50% of their 3rd down whereas the Packers were well behind him at 4.7 YPC(they were at 5.2 YPC) and we converted 39% of our 3rd downs. That is a team without a running QB or a Barkley type RB, so...that's the team I'm using as an example....
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My estimate was of absolutely no such thing. My estimate was how many SNAPS they were going to play; Josh Jacobs played 721 snaps last year. He...did not have 721 carries. Snaps a game is not the same as touches a game. In fact, I expect you'll see some formations with Savion Williams and Josh Jacobs in the backfield together. Safe to say they won't both touch the ball that play, right? Or Lloyd and Jacobs. In fact, you'll definitely have plays where you have 3 WRs, 1 TD and 1 RB or 12 formation which...is very possibly going to be MLF's preferred formation on early downs in his players are healthy. That'd mean that you'd have...hypothetically, Jacobs, Kraft, Musgrave, Wicks and Golden out there. Obviously nobody would expect all of them to get a touch on that play. I'm very confused here. Why would you only have 5-15 plays to the list of receivers mentioned(or just ALL Packers receivers, TEs as a whole)? How about play-action passes? You'd need a RB on the field for that, no? Even including empty sets...which the Packers ran just 31 of last year, I don't think I can recall a single one in which there was no RB on the field. What they'd often do...and they did this a BIT more when they had Aaron Jones, there was still a RB on the field. That...doesn't really make sense. Again, Josh Jacobs...who I don't think will be asked to shoulder quite as much of the load last year. He played 721 spans last year. He had...a little over 300 careers. 319 I believe as well as another nearly 40 touches via the passing game. I do not believe that was by design given LaFleur's comments; So some plays they'll be on the field at the same time. Others they'll just be rotating to keep guys healthy down the stretch run, something Jacobs had quite a few more touches last year than any year in his career outside of 2022. 2024-358 touches 2022-393 touches 303 touches as a 22 year old was the next most. I'm guessing while he'd be the 4 minute back and still get the bulk of the touches, they'd want to limit the number of touches. So...again, the idea would be to keep everyone fresh. No. I do not think the Packers will run or throw the ball to the RB 57 times a game. That Eagles who run with their QB and had the best RB in the NFL in a historic year didn't run the ball 47-57 times a game(including receptions by their WR). Take how many snaps the Packers run on offense, and adjust slightly for each back and that's how many plays I believe they'll be on the field. Not getting the ball.
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Rule 5 to CWS - Shane Smith Discussion Thread
BrewerFan replied to jesusoftheapes's topic in Brewers Minor League Talk
Smith was an outstanding pitcher in the minors for the Brewers...to the point where people were confused why he wasn't called up last year. He was a pitcher everyone thought was a near lock to be added to the 40 man so as to not be subject to the Rule5. The Brewers are as good at any team in MLB at working with pitchers and help them refine their repertoire. He was already toying with a cutter last year. I think it's silly to think the White Sox were the only team that could have helped him take the next step. It seems like we made a mistake. The guy is built like a workhorse, he throws in the mid 90s touching 97 and even 98 at times with good location and he'd had an abnormal climb up the MiLB ladder, but to just heap all of his success on this change seems foolish to me. His FB has been very good, he has a CB, slider and again the cutter. That's basically what the Change is, a variation of a cutter. I think there's a mountain of evidence that the Brewers just simply missed this one. Did the Brewers work on him with him to develop a Change? Maybe. That was perhaps the cutter he was throwing last year, playing with the grip. Is it possible(or probable) he'd have benefitted from being with the Brewers all STing with his role as starter a bit more solidified. The butterfly effect was trading the 33rd pick in the draft and a very exciting young CFer to get a young pitching prospect who hasn't had nearly the success Smith had and Smith at the very least is likely as effective as Priester even if you take out the Change that...has been good, but not exactly revolutionary. It sucks, but this is where we are. We made a mistake in letting Smith go. The Brewers make the right call the vast majority of the time, they blew this one. Shane Smith and Freddy Peralta atop their rotation with Woody, coming back, Civale, Ashby and Hall working back and...then Henderson and Misiorowski in AAA just absolutely dealing(I'm hoping it's to build his arm strength for next year before starting, but perhaps a 3-4 inning reliever down the stretch). So....in a system with a LOT going well, 5 picks in the first two rounds, with several LA players vying to become top 100 prospects, including a couple who could become top 10-15 in Made and Pena we missed one. We'll move on...mostly, We'll likely keep bringing back up 'the one who got away,' with some angry, some rationalizing it, but it's over. It we end up a good #2/3 starting pitcher away, we can lament the loss further after the season.

