BrewerFan

I knew Kevin and his Father a little bit. I was there when he won a State Title in Wrestling as a Sr. His old man...who I didn't know well, I'd coached against after College, but I was down on the floor, I was just the first guy he saw. He's a big dude also. Just grabbed me and...man, cracked my back good. I was ~6'1 210 and felt like a child when he did that! Pops was so proud. I can only imagine what the last...~15 years have been like! He's had an outstanding career though...

I think the WR group will step up, but I also don't see Gutey going after a 30 year old pass rusher for the draft capital it'd take and then the money. I think he's serious about winning, he's just not going to go LA Rams mode to do it. He's not going to be that aggressive but he's far more aggressive than Thompson and on balance, he's pretty aggressive in free agency. We're just going to have to try and figure it out with another signing or the draft, but I doubt he'd make a move like THAT. Also...do you want to give up at least one 1st+ and pay him 35M+ per year...at 30 years old?

Yeah, Heath was a nice young WR who provided depth, but he was never a guy who you worried about their snaps. Melton...I did think for a minute he was going to be a nice player but he didn't build off it. He looked like just a speedster coming out of College, he had a few big games, made some big catches while taking hits or running nice routes and then did nothing last year. I also agree about the FA WRs. I don't think they add a different component...though to be fair, I haven't really watched Cooper. Maybe he's still a big play threat. This is a big year for Musgrave. He started out well, Kraft was hurt and then he got hurt and he hasn't really been healthy enough to get going, but he can create a lot of mismatches. I really think this team can do a lot of things with Musgrave and Lloyd if healthy both add different dimensiions to this team.

Sure, but they were historically bad, they only got worse(and younger). There are enough ways to play around with the DL to be able to roster him for the year if they see anything there. Their degree of competition is likely trying to win 70 games but primarily trying to develop young talent.

I've never seen literally EVERY single expert...even those who are implementing the tariffs themselves and TELLING us they're going to cause "some temporary pain...hopefully," and people are just like, "nah, that's not it!"

Sure...but that's not at all what happpened. "Every single economic lever," was NOT pulled to avoid them "at the expense of the rest of the economy." The market had a few MASSIVE years while they were raising rates(which I've been told is a bigger deal than any tariffs) and what other levers were pulled? On top of that, the GDP was GROWING at roughly 3% the last two years, unemployment was extremely low and inflation was coming down near the 2% rate. Everything was moving in the right direction until...tariffs. Find a financial advisor, hedge fund manager, economist, anyone who thinks this ISN'T directly related to tariffs... You can't as tariffs are creating the uncertainty and they are causing the "corrections." So great GDP growth to a contracting economy. Higher interest rates Low unemployment The economy was humming along VERY smoothly...and then it took a hard right turn. Edit-It IS a blip...if this was the end. It doesn't appear that's the case. The Russell is down nearly 20% now(which is a "crash.") The other indexes are down...15-17%...approaching "crash" territory. And again, that this happened at a time when the economy was booming, it was GROWING(the BEST way to pay down the deficit if that's actually your aim). Finally, this is all happening while these companies are having EXCEPTIONAL earnings.

I don't think tariffs had anything to do with it🙃 No, I think until the 10 year comes down and Powell cuts interest rates, we're going to keep dealing with all of this nonsense. That's the primary goal(at least the short term one). But I figure we celebrate a green-ish day. Could be someone on the 3rd floor discarding their cat...but i think it's evidence how little good news it'd take to at least get the markets moving back in the right direction. Gonna be a REAL wild few years. At least 2.

Stokes has a really good rookie year for a rookie and when he was in press man coverage, but things just didn't fall right for him. I thought he had that big injuries that took away the middle two years(though he started his 2nd year poorly)...but once he and Watson went to Madison to work on their soft muscle issues. Both seemed to get over those. You can't prevent an ACL, so I thought that was a successful. I also thought he was a better just pure cover corner than anyone but Jaire...but he's just not physical and I think Hafley wants more physical CBs and it's just hard for CBs to cover when you're pass rush is poor and you need to send extra guys, you're putting guys on an Island and that's tough for the best CBs. I think Stokes could play really solid football with Crosby, Koonce. But, he's gone. 1/4 seems like a good bet, but we saw him losing snaps.

Man, CPI 2.8%...that's HUGE. 2.9 expected, 3 or more would have been VERY bad, but...2.8 Shelter accounting for 50% of the increase... Energy down .2% over the trailing 12 months. Nice little break and some actual...good news. Good-ish news. Market should have a green day...some blood pressure cooling off. Who knows what will be announced today or...what will be coming back at us, but should be good...especially in the "MAG 7," and then whatever nickname they gave to the 11 when they added AVGO, TSM, BRK and...whoever else.

I don't know that a cut would set off a panic. I do know the odds of a cut by June went from 14% to nearly 70% in about 2 weeks...so you may be right. That may cause more harm than good, but how did we have SUCH a strong economy recover while hitting ATHs repeatedly in '23 and '24 before they started the cuts. It's the uncertainty that is crushing the market...and i guess now to some degree, the certainty of the tariffs. It has a direct impact on prices. I've read it will and it won't impact Wisconsin or me, but electricity goes up, 25%, that's another 100+ a month. We're alienating ourselves and we're hurting ourselves and...another we think a cut of 25 basis points is going to fix this? I'm bracing for April 1st...ironically(or maybe it's not the first, it just feels like it should be) when we announce the prospect of more tariffs and or export controls. That'll be a BIG day for tech. Flashing Green or A River of Red....again. Side note...this really has me looking at BRK as a larger pct of my portfolio. They've managed to be green during some REALLY ugly days... At least I'd be able to understand the reason behind it... it really just seems like a way to tax without saying you're taxing or argue that you're "taxing" other countries. Obviously a lot of the goal has been to strong arm countries(or the EU) into giving in and exerting control...but they're not budging anymore and we're ramping it up. 50% as of tomorrow on steel and aluminum.

I've got a good friend who is a Sr VP at Morgan Stanley, manages just shy of 2B dollars. Take a guess what he thinks is causing a 2.8% contraction in the GDP when it was projected to GROW at over 3%...much less tanking the markets? To the later...yes. 50% tariffs steel and lumber and now paying 25% on energy from Canada...trade wars with your closest allies, that's not setting up a recession for the economy that was the "envy of the world," coming out of Covid. It's the fed. I guess they cut too much? Because that was the argument before. Only two cuts last year, 50 basis points. Even the POTUS and Musk have talked about what they hope will be "short term pain." Instead it's all on the Fed?

You may be right. The only reason Tom wasn't a LT was they thought Bakh was coming back and had Walker and Nijman working in at LT and Tom won the RT job. I don't think paying a RT 25M a year would be the problem though. Not only is it not as much money as it sounds like given the Cap is growing, RT is only marginally less important than LT at this point. You see teams like the Chargers drafting Joe Alt with an AP LT or the Giants did the same despite itt not working with Neal, but bookend OTs? I'd love to have two worth paying 25M a year. It'll seem like an even better deal in 4 years when the Cap passes 350M. Also, I just came up with a round number for Tom. He could easily get 30M AAV and be well worth it. I'd actually guess they keep the 4th year and total deal comes out to about 25M per but with the 1.5 or whatever he'll make this year. But RT is a premier position either way. Many of the top pass rushers are lining up on the left(so over the RT for the offense) to get better match-ups.

We just don't agree on the OL then. Sack numbers can be on the QB. Love threw a LOT of balls off his back foot and was getting hit a lot and Josh Myers was not good and he was leaving. It's also the 2nd most important position IMO...just ahead of DL. I like our pass catchers more than our OL and Josh Myers just NEEDED to be replaced. Now what's the question? If Walker can improve or if Morgan steps up and earns the LT job, you have an elite OL. I would have made that Tunsil trade if it were up to me. Tunsil, Jenkins/?/Morgan or Rhyan/Tom, that would have been worth it also. I don't think you can just go by total rushing yards and sacks and grade an OL like that. If it was just Banks...I'd agree, but it's the move for Jenkins and the larger picture that makes me like this signing.

I thought Banks got 63M GTD, no? Has that changed or was that just GTD against injury?

4/48 really isn't a big deal either. The GTD money is more significant. Banks isn't a star, but getting Jenkins to Center is a big upgrade...but who did you want them to get? Crosby was my first choice, then Garrett...both were long shots. Hendrickson would be a cool choice, but risky and very unlike the Packers. They want prime age players. He's not. Garrett wouldn't have been either, but at least closer and good enough to make an exception. This wasn't an elite FA class. I don't think we found a huge difference maker...but I do think moving Jenkins to Center will make a pretty significant impact.

It's...mind-blowing. Just MAGICALLY and for absolutely no reason at all...the economy that was growing is now contracting, the market is crashing and tariffs are...just...ya know, a footnote. Which is probably why we haven't learned our lessons about tariffs yet. Those who haven't.... doomed to repeat it and all of that.

Yeah...I guess especially when you're telling people we might feel some "pain" for a couple years...I just never really thought he was indifferent to the markets and I thought they'd work something out with Canada, France. I think the rest of the world is kinda done with us being the school yard bully. The Canadian tariffs are particularly stupid. It's NOT about the border. Everyone knows that, it's about the deficit surplus or deficits and our biggest are with Canada, Mexico and China...I believe. And if you take Energy out, we have a Surplus with Canada. So I don't understand going after them. I don't understand going after the EU. I don't understand the romanization of tariffs as a whole. Why you'd take an Economy that was growing and intentionally tank it. This would all make a MODICUM of sense to me if you were dedicated to paying off the debt, but...that's not going to happen. They might slightly lower the deficit, still adding to the debt and then you're going to have tax cuts that won't do anything for the debt. But I guess if you took everyone at their word...this was obvious. I didn't do much but sell SMCI after the 10K. Bought Googl, META and AMZN yesterday, but...didn't have enough for more than 300-400 shares total. So just gonna have to ride this out and hope history doesn't repeat itself.

Yeah...the Bears have finally figured it out. Draft a talented QB and then...actually hire offensive minded coaches. Lions, Bears and Washington are ALL figuring it out. Washington paid a lot for Tunsil...but an elite LT is...pretty valuable and they age better than most positions. Sounds like Tunsil and a 4th for a 3rd+7th this year and a 2nd and 4th next year. So top 5 LT for a 2nd, 3rd, 7th and a swap in the 4th basically. I think I'd have probably done that...though he'll get a big extension as well.

Yes. They are. If Hobbs plays the slot, you'll have Nixon, a guy who should be a slot, Valentine, a guy who probably projects better at slot, Hobbs and then Bullard who was your primary slot last year and you're playing a scheme that plays heavy man and a lot of cover 1 man. So if they don't bring back Jaire, I'd say they need to address their boundary CB position for Hafley to be able to play the type of defense he wants to. Your list, their biggest needs. Pass rusher. I agree, I've been agreeing, I thought a move for Garrett would be as close to Reggie as you could get. But who is that edge that you're going to get now? You'll draft one(or IDL who can rush the passer). Moving Jenkins to Center and finally addressing that position is a "needle mover. May have overpaid or maybe Banks will be better, but that's definitely a needle mover. WR is less of a need than CB(especially without Jaire, but even with Jaire, they'll need young CBs). WR, I don't think a certain type of WR would help, but it'd have to be someone who can take the top off and tilt the field so they have to play with a safety over the top. The Packers problems were drops last year and the IOL on offense. If Wicks can play more like he did as a rookie(a ~5% drop% vs a 27% as a 2nd year player, or those were roughly the numbers I saw late in the year). I don't know what you do about the DL. Hope Covington can get them to play better? Wyatt should be be good. I'd hope Gary will be again. Clark...he's played a lot of snaps. But DE...you're almost certainly going to have to draft and develop. Mosby played well, Cox Jr played...alright. But you're going to have to on Gary, LVN and probably a 1st rd pick. OL-I'd still like to see them take a stud OT if there was one there. Simmons would be the most likely, but I think he'll be gone. Edge/DL-They'll obviously take a DT. They'll take an edge if there is an upgrade, but even that player is probably not going to immediately impact the team. LVN on the other hand, year 3, he should take another step. WR/TE-This is a good group, they're young and need to just address the drops...as is often the case. CB-If Jaire is cut and they view Hobbs as a slot...they need a #1 and #2 CB. I'll assume with Bullard, Hobbs plays outside, but it's still a priority. Other than that, a clear #1, elite edge rusher is something every team wants and it's why Myles Garrett gets 40M a year. I don't think we're getting him and I don't think we're trading for Hendrickson and guys like Mack took less to stay in LA, Bosa is going to SF, even Chase Young is getting 17M AAV from NOLA. For a team that was the #6 defense with a under-performing DL and #8 with the most drops in the league, I'd say finally sorting out the C and IOL positions and getting a good, physical CB leaves them without any huge holes. It doesn't elevate them to the Eagles, Lions or maybe even the Commanders level, but what moves were going to other than young players improving?

They're gonna have to really address the boundary position if they're going to spend money on yet another guy who profiles as a slot. Again, really hoping Jaire and the Packers can figure something out. Then you can draft a CB, DL, Edge and none of them are going to be too heavily relied on immediately. Similar to last year, the Packers are addressing their needs early on and can use the draft to let it come without huge needs. Really like the Hobbs signing...I'll trust the Packers on the Banks signing.

I wonder how much of a given it was he was gone vs how much Rob needs to write a story? I'd love a bit of a pay cut with bonuses added and run it back again, but that's because I know how good he can be. Slaton leaving hurts, but I said I thought 3/24 would be what he'd get...but I think they had to look DL anyway. Kenneth Grant would be a great pick...or...Deone Walker. It was an important position before Slaton left.

Yeah...that's a bit of an odd one to me, but...he's young and the Packers pro scouting is pretty good. I think that Zach Tom price just went up. 4 years 100M would be a...pretty good deal. And the plan is now what? Jenkins at Center? I know they love Tom and his potential there, but you're good with Banks/Jenkins/Rhyan/Tom on the rest of the OL and hoping Morgan can push Walker, make him better or be better. If you move Tom to Center, you could try Jenkins out there again. He was coming off the ACL the last time, but you'd more likely need Morgan and Walker at the OTs.

Yeah...and Johnson getting a commitment from the Bears to really focus on building an OL? You see it coming like you do with Detroit after Sewell(at least that's when it became obvious IMO). Difference is, the Bears already have that QB. There are now 4 REALLY well run and well coached organizations in the NFC North. The clear turning point for them was trading that #1 pick, picking up Wright, a future 1st and DJ Moore. Just really hard for me to envision Williams not being at least a top ~10 QB with Ben Johnson and a good OL. Thuney is just a start and he's 32, but I wouldn't be surprised to see them take 2 OL in the top 41. And then...they don't need much.

Ok...well, that's a decidedly lower bar. I assumed you meant IF outside of 1B(obviously not including Bauers or Martinez for instance)...which Black would mainly fit into as well. If he can play good defense and just put up a ~700 OPS...even without much power but a good OBP, I'd take that. Any power...even better. I think Hoskins will bounce back, Yelich, Chourio...hopefully Mitchell can stay healthy, Contreras and then I like Turang to take another step offensively. I like that lineup and if there's an issue, you can always make a move for a 3B.

I didn't think we needed to do much this off-season...and I didn't expect much, but Moncada would have been a very nice signing to pair with Dunn. As for him having more power than any of our IFers...I keep hearing people speak very highly of Dunn, I just don't see why. He had a big year in AA for Philly at 25. Pretty similar to Ortiz in AA/AAA at 23 . He really project to have that much more power than Ortiz?