BrewerFan

Two stocks I was NOT buying was NVDA and AVGO. Just ...too much of my portfolio is somehow tied into that but...I couldn't help it. AVGO was in the 130s and they announced 10B in buybacks, NVDA is sitting there with 50B authorized and it was at 87 and I bought a few blocks. Sold the NVDA at 105, was honestly planning on selling the AVGO when it hit 170 as it had yesterday...and as it's there, I see the news, 90 days and i's at 180-185 and I'll probably sell tomorrow as it was never meant to be an investment. NVDA did get the go ahead to sell the H20s. That's 16B in revenue that seemed to be off and they're ready to be shipped. Also, I don't get it...why was the Dow down 2300 points, 1900 points, massive turnaround... we get a rate cut?

That Braylon Payne swing looks VERY Christian Yelich-esque to me....

When someone tells you who they are(or what they plan on doing)...believe them.

Is there ANY chance Urias is coming back? He was convicted of everything. Bauer's not back and...he was never even charged.

I'm about 90% sure he's not... He's got a women who has a very...open personality in social media.

Hey, if the whole point is to just lower the 10 year, then fine, but you can only lie so many times as President and make up these figures that other countries have for tariffs on us. The US was at 1.5%, China was at 2.2%. That doesn't seem like it justifies a 54% increase. Also, I wouldn't be so sure that we're going to win this "big game of chicken," with the global economy when Japan has an alliance with...CHINA and South Korea. Jesus. Trump MAY actually be on pace to get the Palestinians and Israelis to find peace if he can get those three nations to. They're not bowing down and Trump says that's not the plan. There is no negotiating and this is what we're doing now. Tariffs 40-50% higher(until of course the actual reciprocal tariffs start coming) and they completely rebalance global trade so that it's not as reliant on the United States.

Sure bud. I feel like you captured the points I made in an intellectually honest manner here.

You don't think they had it coming?

Merely pointing out how inconsequential tariffs are! Ironically, I BELIEVE that was actually Reagan putting tariffs on semiconductors for a short period while he worked out a trade deal with Japan(ironically, now it's arguably the most important industry at the moment). But this is how trade is supposed to work. TARGETED tariffs to negotiate trade deals. Also...Harley. Reagan put tariffs on motorcycles with the understanding they had a window to build competitive bikes. And they did. Started at 45% and then went to 0 after 5 years. There was one about Krugman talking about this being the worst economic policy in 95 years and potentially being much worse than a prior tariff passed by the house just 5-6 months before the crash as we live in a much larger, more global economy now, but...I'm sure people can find other opinions if they like.

It's more his actions and...pretty basic deductive reasoning. I've got it. You think Bando deciding to wait for the expansion draft, giving a reliever 1M(a whole .3M paycut) while asking your best player and franchise Icon to take a paycut from 3.2M to 1.3M with a 2M option) was reasonable. Because Selig stepped in when the deal HADN'T happened at the last minute, you definitely cannot infer he wanted to and thought they'd keep Molitor and that it was Bando that didn't want him. You need it spelled out for you quite literally with Bud saying, "I thought Bando would get it done, but I had to step in after the Jays had offered him money to salvage it," and shy of that, it doesn't matter. I...kinda felt like it was obvious. I did. Did I not make that clear? Why would you think I'd post if if I didn't think it was relevant or cared? He was in the smallest market and yet they were running one of the highest payrolls while they went to a WS and were an injury to their closer away from a WS. Selig brought Baseball to Milwaukee. He spent to bring in and keep two HOFer(until he left to become commissioner) and he DID certainly hire a poor GM to steward things in his absence. And by that time, they'd spent to keep a young phenom pitcher who had injury issues as well as two other players to try and push them over the top that didn't work. So they lost money and had to cut back on payroll(which brings me back to paying the reliever 1M self explanatory, but I guess it wasn't). It WAS Selig's team and Selig's money and he's THEE reason there is a team in Milwaukee for people like you to complain...fairly regularly about...he also did so many things for small markets to try an do what little he could to balance the inequities in the game, but...sure, terrible owner! Just curious...how bad is Attanasio? I mean, you blame Selig for "strong arming the City," because they needed a new stadium, but did Attanasio not do that? Or you likely do feel the same way about Attanasio...who can tell. Here's what happened. If you want to contort this to lay at Selig's feet rather than Bando's...I mean, people have all types of opinions that seem to be....unique. There are people who think Chourio was a bad signing. There are people who think the Brewers should be spending 10M more on the MLB team vs their LA development. I think it's pretty hard to argue that bringing the team to Milwaukee until that 1992 season when he was involved day to day speak for themselves, but...sure...."crappy owner!" LOL...alright. Here's what happened. If you still feel that way...so be it. https://shepherdexpress.com/sports/brew-crew-confidential/messy-divorce-brewers-paul-molitor/ https://www.swamileecards.com/the-other-side-of-bud-selig

I would like him used very cautiously and then...sure, if he can maintain those numbers, that'd be great. I'd say 2-3 months in AAA as I trust the MLB team to figure it out and he's probably going to max out at 140 innings this year, but this is encouraging.

Well...you don't anticipate a President coming in, taking over a bull market and then seeing the markets crash by an entirely self inflicted move! So 120 a couple months ago...yeah, that was probably a good price! I do think they're close to the bottom and I HAVE to believe Trump is actually having his team talking behind the scenes so he can save face and they can claim victory on some trade deals...but I don't know. I'm still holding...but it's like watching the odometer flip. You always go from ATHs. I was up X amount and now...there's...however much. BRK.B is the only stock I'm currently buying. It won't have the highest or craziest returns, but it's not going to have the same downside risk either.

Yeah...if that's the end of the story and you want to ignore the part where Selig was the commissioner and he believed a deal would get done while Bando tanked it...and then he came back at the last minute to try and get him to agree to go to arbitration...sure, end of story. If you also want to ignore how the Brewers often had payrolls that were among the highest in the league in the 80s...ok. Bando was "merely" the...guy who made the decision to offer Molitor .3M more than Orasco. End of story.

Ok. You don't get it. You think offering a franchise icon 1.3M and offering Orosco 1M makes...perfect sense. Gotcha.

Heck, I wouldn't be buying until it starts turning around unless you have some of those chain link gloves so that falling knife doesn't get you; https://youtu.be/YXBwYHQthqo

You don't get the relevance of paying a reliever who threw 39 innings 1M and offering Molitor 1.3M? Ok...well, if you don't see it, you don't see it.

https://shepherdexpress.com/sports/brew-crew-confidential/messy-divorce-brewers-paul-molitor/

That guy is just another FREAK from Tennessee. They produce absolute monsters. Milton is 6'5, 240, can throw it a 85, had the 2nd hardest thrown ball in NFL history(that they've recorded) on a throw he was scrambling to his left and threw back across to the right and hit a Pats WR diving out of bounds in the EZ for a TD. Kinda a dream or a nightmare backup. He's going to show fans some amazing things in camp and but he'll need a few years yet to develop(a theme with Tenn QBs).

I thought about it. AGAIN, Selig game in town to try and offer Molitor the arbitration he originally hoped to get, he offered him a 2 year deal. But in the meantime, Bando had made a trade for Dante Bichette and called HIM their new DH. THEN when crying poor(They had spent pretty wildly the previous few years) but Bando offers Jesse Orosco a 1M a year deal and he offered Molitor, who'd made 3.2M 1.3M. Molitor, who repeatedly said, he desperately wanted to stay in Milwaukee said he'd have taken anything even remotely competitive. That offer, again, didn't come until right before the deadline when Selig tried to get Molitor to agree to arbitration. By this time, Molitor had already signed the 2/9M deal that was ~4X the offer the Brewers made. If you want to blame SELIG for this...have at it. It just doesn't line up with history.

It was just a footnote. Nobody really cares about tariffs. Now when the Fed Cuts another 25 basis points, THAT is what really matters. Not 54% tariffs on China or...10% tariffs on an UNINHABBITED ISLAND. And when I say uninhabited Island, I mean no humans live there. Penguins do live there. Every Economist in 1929 warned the US what would happen if they implemented Smoot-Hawley and every Republican since then, every FREE TRADE capitalist have pointed out how damaging tariffs were. All the same, #47 told Hoover...hold my Beer; He's merely talking about a footnote though.

Yes. And he did. Selig came back as interim Commish and tried to salvage the relationship, but it was too late. It was absolutely ALL Bando. He was running the team. This has been VERY-VERY well documented.

I don't think McMillan is the type of WR who is worth moving up for. Not at that cost. Johnson and Morrison would be an interesting duo at CB. I love Barron...again, I just think he's an amazing slot/bullard type safety, but not a boundry CB. He's a little tight, short armed. Again, a HR pick last year, but...not ideal this year. Can play the run and has speed though, so...would be up to Hafley to figure out.

This is a poor representation of what he said. This infers his goal isn't to win a WS.

He didn't run them into the ground, Bando did(then family) and he didn't even slash salary, Bando didn't wan tto pay Molitor as he thought that money could be better spent elsewhere. But that's just my Selig defense as I think he gets too much blame. Get Jimmy and Dee Haslem in there and tell them to let Arnold do what he wants, they write the checks. I'd eb happy. Probably add 50M to our payroll.

Johnson is in a similar situation at Morrison. Both top 10 coming into the year, both injured, neither has tested. But Johnson was good enough at Michigan I’d feel comfortable without seeing him run. I’m not sure I feel great about all the soft tissue injuries, but, no prospect at 23 is going to be flawless. Alexander looks great…and if he were 22, he’d likely be a 1st Rd pick, or in consideration. 25 years old…Clark was going into his 5th season at that age. He can still have value(and Clark might be wearing down from all the snaps, though I hope that was just one year). Simmons, I think San Fran takes him at 11(if they don’t go CB, but I think they go OL) and if not there, then I think he stays in state to play in the NFL as the Bengals desperately need OL help without hitting up the FA market. But, in the unlikely scenario that he makes it past the Bengals, I’m not sure there are a lot of teams that need a LT in that following group…and I also don’t think the Packers feel great about Walker’s future. He’ll be a FA next year and nobody has mentioned signing him. Given the knee injuries, the microfracture…THAT is problem that shortens your career by a few years. I think he’s maxed out at as a solid, above average starter, but one who is prone to injuries and who just gets beat badly by the elite edges. Simmons would have even more appeal if the Packers hadn’t moved to more of a one-gap scheme and I think the most likely scenario is that Tom ends up at LT after an extension…likely one bigger than we’ve even talked about(I’m gonna guess 4 at ~28M AAV on top of the final year for ~5/115). But I think this an under the radar need. I don’t think the Packers want to pay him the 15-20M he’ll get and I don’t know what the Packers think of Morgan. I was a fan last year, but I liked Fautanu, Guyton(though he was raw), Rosengarten(thought he was also raw). Also like Barton. I think it’s unlikely, but if the Packers think Morgan is best suited to play OG, and unless they like one of the big young Tackles they’ve got, Simmons falling to them might not be a bad thing. It would be WILDLY unpopular though. Later on, Conerly Jr reminds me of Fautanu a bit. Shorter, long arms, good athlete. Williams from Texas is raw and then there are some guys who may be worth a flyer on later(one of Hafley’s former recruits, Trapillo and then Millum’s stock is down, but I thought he looked good. Hopefully, Morgan makes strides but can’t beat out Walker this year and then next year they move Morgan from RG to RT and Tom over to the Left. As for Thorton Jr…I’d take another look at this kid. 4.0 GPA Class President Team Captain Helped raise his 4 siblings… 25.1 YPR in the SEC, over 21 for his career. BUT more than that, he’s just a FREAK athlete. 6’5, 4.30 40, he broke 29 tackles last year. And yeah, he’s not a refined route runner, but he tilts the field. I’d go back and check out the A22. He's…VERY similar to Watson, but he tracks the ball better and he’s more of a hands catcher. I think he’ll be better in 50/50 situations. Watson is great, he’s more sudden, he’s probably quicker, but I don’t buy this WRing core being in as much need as others do. I think Wicks has just had normal struggles and he can be a 1A, Reed has proven it. Doubs is an enigma to me. He’s clearly talented, but I don’t like the body language. Looks like he’s counting down his days in GB. Throw in Kraft, Musgrave….who looked great early as a rookie but he struggled with injury. But I don’t think there’s been a guy with this frame and 4.30 speed and the physicality he has. I mean…after all, Watson wasn’t very productive in College and we are MUCH better with him on the field. 6’4 and his speed. And…again, he’ll be a FA who MIGHT be back for…6-8 weeks next year. I'd just take another look at the A22 and watch the releases he gets and how fluid he is. He's not Jeremiah Smith, but I think at worst he's a big play threat and the upside is...very high.