And That

I honestly don't think you get Realmuto without giving up one of Hiura, Burnes, or Peralta. Hiura/Woodruff/Ortiz/Nottingham might get it done and I think is a bit of an overpay, but I also wouldn't be surprised if it wasn't enough for the Marlins.

I just based that on what he's done by the WAR metrics, and extrapolating that out until the end of his contract. So if he got no better, this is what he could be worth. If he got a lot better, the Brewers would reap the benefits obviously. The Orioles may try to price him as though he were going to get significantly better, but that's kind of like saying "he's not great because we suck at development" so I don't know how far down the road they want to run that argument re:Gausman, who turns 28 in January and has generally been healthy the past few years. It may work better with Bundy.

Curious on how you calculated surplus value. You must be estimated how much he gets in arby in 2019-2020 starting with his $5.6M this year?..... Yah, I don't get close to $47 million. BPro '16-'18: 6.2 WAR Bref '16-'18: 9.5 WAR (they don't do projections so guessing at remaining 1/3 of '18) FG '16-'18: 7.6 WAR (using ZiPS projection) That totals 23.3 WAR total, or 7.8 average over '16-'18, or 2.6 average per year. 2.6 WAR x 2 1/3 year of control = 6.1 WAR from now until end of contract. $WAR/year estimates vary between about $8 million - $10 million depending on how you measure spending (based on projections or actual performance), and not adjusting for positional variances. So let's call it $9 million. $9 million x 6.1 WAR = $55 million of total value being produced. As for arbitration, Gausman is going to have just under 5 years of service time at the end of the year. Looking at comps, I don't think it's unreasonable to expect arb salaries of $8.5 million in '19 and $11.5 million in '20 (which is probably light). Call it $20 million for '19-'20 plus $2 million remaining this year, gives a total remaining cost of contract of $22 million. So $55 million of value less $22 million of cost gives $33 million of surplus value by my back of the envelope math. That's about the value of a 55+40+40 or a 50+50+35 OFP prospect package. So my guess would be in the neighborhood of Ortiz+Bickford+Torres-Costa or Houser+Dubon+Wilkerson.

C Nate Rodriguez activated off of Carolina's DL.

Final: AZL White Sox 6, AZL Brewers 4 AZL Brewers Box Score The Brewers could not quite overcome an early 5-0 deficit. Starting pitcher Cam Robinson, still just 18 this season after being drafted as a 17-year-old last June, seemed to have some control issues as he walked 4 and allowed 4 hits in 3.1 innings. He didn't strike out anyone, either. Long term, the outlook for Robinson is still great. Although he's a little shorter than the "ideal" starter, he throws solidly in the low 90's with late life and potentially one of the better sliders in the system. 24th-rounder Wade Beasley made his pro debut at last, though he allowed 2 runs in 2/3 of an inning. That makes 13th-rounder Reese Olson the only 2018 draft pick yet to debut. Joe Gray had his best day as a professional, with 2 hits (a career high) and 2 walks (tying a career high). One of the hits was a double, giving Gray 3 XBHs amongst his 8 hits this season. He stole 2 bases as well, and he's now 5-5 in stolen base attempts as a pro. AZL Brewers Game Log

Final: Great Falls 4, Helena 3 Beltre's Blast Costs Brewers Chance At Sweep Helena Gets Tying Run To Third In Eighth But Fails To Score By Greg Mroz / Helena Brewers Great Falls, MT - Looking for their first sweep in a four game series this season, the Helena Brewers had a 3-2 going into the bottom of the seventh inning on Sunday against Great Falls. However, Ramon Beltre hit a two run homer, his third against Helena, to give Great Falls the 4-3 lead going into the eighth. The Brewers had a great chance to tie, as they got the tying run to third with nobody out in the eighth, but a double play with the bases loaded ended the inning. Helena fell 4-3, snapping a six game winning streak they had against the Voyagers. The Brewers got the offense going in the first with a run on a fielder's choice ground out from Eddie Silva. With the one run cushion, Helena starter Max Lazar locked in, shutting out the Voyagers over the first four innings. In the fifth, Alex Destino led off with a double, and Gunnar Troutwine followed with a double of his own, easily scoring Destino to tie the game. Lazar then bore down and got the next three on strikes, ending the inning. Helena responded right away in the sixth, as Silva doubled with two out against Chris Comito. LG Castillo then tripled to deep right center, scoring Silva to give the Brewers the lead back. Comito then walked Je'Von Ward, and ball four skipped to the backstop, scoring Castillo from third to make it 3-1 Helena. The Voyagers wouldn't go away, as they loaded the bases with one out in the sixth against Jenri Montas. Destino then hit into a fielder's choice that scored a run to make it 3-2, but Troutwine couldn't deliver the tying run, grounding out to short to end the frame. Brandon Presley entered for the seventh and allowed a one out single to Travis Moniot. That brought up Beltre, who delivered with an opposite field drive that barely cleared the wall, giving the Voyagers a 4-3 lead, their first of the game. However, Helena had a golden opportunity to tie the game against Vince Arobio in the eighth. David Fry started the inning with a single, and Silva grounded a ball to second that Moniot threw away, moving Fry the tying run to third and Silva the go ahead run to second. Great Falls played everyone on the infield back except for Lenyn Sosa at third, and Castillo then chopped a ball to third, where Sosa looked Fry back to third and threw to first for the out. Ward walked to load the bases for Jesus Lujano, who grounded a ball right back to Arobio, who threw home for the second out and Troutwine fired to first to complete the double play, ending the inning. Helena went down in order in the ninth, falling 4-3. Tomorrow Helena returns home for a brief two game series against the Missoula Osprey. *** *** Helena Box Score Max Lazar with one of the better starts of his burgeoning pro career. Max struck out 7 against 1 walk in 5 innings of work, allowing just a run on 4 hits. Barring any setbacks, we'll see him as a 19-year-old in Wisconsin's rotation next spring. Helena Game Log

Final: Helena 13, Great Falls 4 Brewers Blow Out Voyagers To Win Third Straight Helena Scores First Seven Runs Of The Game By Greg Mroz / Helena Brewers Great Falls, MT - Having won their past five games against Great Falls, the Brewers on Saturday night at Centene Stadium kept their foot on the gas, scoring the first seven runs of the game en route to a 13-4 victory over the Voyagers. The Brewers have won the last six they've played against Great Falls and are 3-0 to start the second half. The Brewers played good fundamental baseball to score the first run of the game. With one out in the top of the first, Jean Carmona singled to center. He stole second with Chad McClanahan up, and then got to third as ball four to McClanahan was a wild pitch David Fry then took the first pitch he saw and skied it to left, deep enough to score Carmona to make it 1-0 Helena. Helena in the second took advantage of severe command problems from Great Falls starter Jason Bilous (L, 0-1). Eddie Silva started the inning with a double, and Bilous then walked three straight, with Silva scoring on a walk drawn by Jesus Lujano. Bilous struck out the next two, but with McClanahan up he threw a wild pitch, scoring Pablo Abreu from third. McClanahan walked, loading the bases ending the day for Bilous. Jack Maynard then entered and walked Fry, forcing home a run to make it 4-0 Helena. In the fourth, the Brewers busted the game open, as a one out Yeison Coca single scored on a double off the left center field wall from Carmona. Fry singled home Carmona, and reached third on a single from LG Castillo. He then scored on a wild pitch, making it 7-0 Brewers. Fry finished the night with three RBI, and has six in the series. Scott Sunitsch (W, 2-0) earned the win for Helena, allowing just two runs over five innings. Sunitsch shut out Great Falls over the first three, and gave up just single runs in the fourth and fifth. The lefty struck out five, earning his second win in Centene Stadium in as many starts. The Brewers scored five more in the game, with two coming in the seventh and four in the ninth. Pablo Abreu hit his third homer of the season in the seventh, and Jesus Lujano drove home two of his three runs in the final three frames. Tomorrow Helena returns to Centene Stadium for the final time in regular season history looking for the sweep, as Max Lazar takes the hill, opposed by Konnor Pilkington for Great Falls. First pitch is at 4 PM, with the pregame show hitting the airwaves of helenabrewers.net at 3:40. *** *** Helena Box Score Helena Game Log

Final: Colorado Springs 5, Albuquerque 3 BACK-TO-BACK HOMERS SEAL SKY SOX 5-3 WIN ON RAIN-STRICKEN NIGHT By Sky Sox PR COLORADO SPRINGS, Colo. - The Sky Sox evened the series with a 5-3 victory over the Albuquerque Isotopes on a wet and rainy Saturday night at Security Service Field. On a night which saw an over two-hour delay due to a passing storm, the Sky Sox came through with 10 hits on the night, including back-to-back home runs by Christian Bethancourt and Rymer Liriano to take the lead in the bottom of the eighth inning and seal their 56th win of 2018. Colorado Springs starter Adrian Houser tossed five shutout innings while allowing just three hits with four strikeouts, but was cut short as rain piled onto the field during the bottom of the fifth inning. After a scoreless two-and-a-half frames traded with the Rockies' Triple-A affiliate, the Sky Sox broke out in the bottom of the third to take a 2-0 lead. After Brewers rehabber Jonathan Villar singled to start the half and Dylan Moore drew a walk behind him, Tyrone Taylor traded places with Moore, grounding into a fielder's choice out and went on to steal second. With one out, Domingo Santana struck a line drive off the right-field wall to plate both runs. In the bottom of the fifth, after the Sky Sox put runners on the corners with no outs, a storm brewed over Security Service Field, which forced a field tarp and sent the game into a delay. Following a two-hour and 10-minute delay to assess conditions and prepare the field, the game was resumed at the point of delay in the bottom of the fifth. Fresh Isotopes arm Scott McGough with no outs to work with runners on the corners was able to get out of a tough jam and set down the Sky Sox down in order to avoid any damage. Rockies rehabber Chad Bettis completed his start after four innings of two-run, six-hit ball with one walk and two strikeouts. In the bottom of the sixth, Jett Bandy sparked another run on the board for the Sky Sox on a leadoff solo home run to extend the lead to 3-0. In the seventh, the Isotopes found a rhythm, getting within a run of the Sky Sox. Back-to-back singles by Josh Fuentes and Ryan McMahon put runners on the corners while Elliot Soto's sacrifice fly ball to right field plated their first run. One batter later, Ryan Metzler singled to bring home the second run. After the Sky Sox stranded two runs in the bottom of the seventh, Albuquerque took advantage and tied the game at 3-3 thanks to McMahon's two-out single to right field to score David Dahl who led the inning off with a single. In the bottom of the eighth, the Sky Sox turned the momentum in their favor and took a final 5-3 lead supported by back-to-back solo home runs by Christian Bethancourt and Rymer Liriano to call it a night after a four-hour and fifty-six minute night. The Sky Sox continue into the third game against the Albuquerque Isotopes tomorrow with a 1:30 p.m. first pitch. *** Colorado Springs Box Score Colorado Springs Game Log

Aviles has great tools, just unrefined. Arguably above average defense, arm strength, speed, and raw power. I've been guilty of underrating him in the past, though he often does remarkable stuff on the field that doesn't show up in the box score. Still has a bunch of stuff to iron out, but could be a good one.

I believe he was over 5 years of service time, which means he could refuse optional assignment. He was a little short of 5 years when he was optioned the first time.

Care to wager?

Final: AZL Brewers 7, AZL Cubs1 1 AZL Brewers Box Score Baby Brewers win 7-1 for the second day in a row and move to 3-1 in the second half. Almost everyone in the lineup had one hit, and Jess Williams had two. 2018 draft picks Joe Gray, Brice Turang, Korey Howell, and Pablo Garabitos each had a hit and a walk. 2017 8th round pick Jayson Rose made his 2018 debut with a clean 1-inning rehab outing. Karlos Morales allowed one run on 7 hits in 3.2 innings in relief of Rose, and got 3 Ks. Johan Dominguez made his longest appearance of the summer, working 3 scoreless innings. He's up to 9 scoreless innings now for the AZL club after beginning the year in the DSL. AZL Brewers Game Log

Final: Helena 4, Great Falls 2 Castaneda Deals As Brewers Hold Off Late Voyagers Charge Righty Allows Just Three Hits Over Six Shutout Innings By Greg Mroz / Helena Brewers Great Falls, MT - Helena right hander Victor Castaneda had long been in search of his first win as a member of the Brewers organization, earning a loss or a no decision in each of his first six starts. On a warm Friday night at Centene Stadium, Castaneda was on his game, allowing just three hits over six shutout innings. The righty left in line for the win, and the Helena bullpen held off a late rally from Great Falls to win 4-2. Helena is now 2-0 in the second half. Castaneda and Voyagers starter Matt Portland duelled through the first three innings, but Helena finally cracked the ice in the fourth. Jean Carmona started the inning with a single, but remained at first as Portland struck out the next two. He stole second with LG Castillo up, and got to third as the throw to second sailed into center field. Castillo worked a 14 pitch at bat, fouling off eight straight 2-2 pitches. Pitch 14 Castillo drilled off the left center field wall, scoring Carmona easily to give Helena the 1-0 lead. After the Brewers scored their first run, Castaneda held Great Falls in check over the next three innings, as only two more reached base over his final three frames. While he did not record a strikeout, Castaneda only issued one walk in the game. With the score still 1-0, Tate Budnick entered for the seventh and surrendered a leadoff single to Romy Gonzalez. A ground out moved him to second, but Budnick got the next two to strike out, stranding the tying run in scoring position. The clutch escape spring boarded the Brewers in the eighth, as a Luis Avila leadoff double scored on a bunt from Yeison Coca in which a catching error was made by second baseman Amado Nunez, who was covering first. Carmona walked and Chad McClanahan singled to load the bases, and David Fry then reached on a fielders choice with no out recorded, keeping the bases loaded while scoring Coca. Castillo then brought home another on a sacrifice fly, making it 4-0 Brewers. Budnick ran into trouble in the eighth, as the first three reached on singles, with the first run scoring on a Steele Walker single that moved a runner to third. Lenyn Sosa's ground out scored the second run, but moved Walker to second, and bringing the tying run to the plate with one out. Budnick then punched out Logan Sowers, and with Gonzalez up, Walker tried to steal third, but was thrown out by Mike Alescio to end the inning. Michael Mediavilla came on for the ninth, and after a leadoff single from Gonzalez, the tying run reached on a walk to Ryan Fitzpatrick. Nunez grounded out to short for the second out, but both runners moved into scoring position. It proved to be a moot point, as Jhoandro Alfaro grounded out to third, ending the game and giving Mediavilla his first save. Tomorrow Helena returns to Centene Stadium for a Saturday night showdown with the Voyagers, as Scott Sunitsch takes the hill, opposed by Jason Bilous for Great Falls. First pitch is at 7 PM, with the pregame show hitting the airwaves of helenabrewers.net at 6:40. *** *** Helena Box Score The H-Crew played a pretty clean game outside of a few Yeison Coca baserunning miscues, and capitalized on some shoddy Great Falls defense to move to 2-0 in the second half. Nice to see 3B Jean Carmona on base 3 times as he's been pretty cold at the plate since a fire start to the season. Starter Victor Castaneda pitched 6 scoreless, but also managed to not strike anyone out in 6 innings of work which is a rare feat. The only Voyager runs allowed came at the expense of some bad BABIP luck off of Tate Budnick in the 8th. Michael Mediavilla picked up his first Helena save after being promoted from the AZL a few days ago. Helena Game Log Big 8th inning: Helena Top of the 8th Luis Avila doubles (1) on a fly ball to left fielder Alex Destino. Yeison Coca hits a sacrifice bunt. Fielding error by second baseman Amado Nunez. Luis Avila scores. Yeison Coca to 1st. Jean Carmona walks. Yeison Coca to 2nd. Chad McClanahan singles on a fly ball to center fielder Steele Walker. Yeison Coca to 3rd. Jean Carmona to 2nd. David Fry reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by third baseman Ramon Beltre. Yeison Coca scores. Jean Carmona to 3rd. Chad McClanahan to 2nd. Leugim Castillo out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Alex Destino. Jean Carmona scores. Chad McClanahan to 3rd. David Fry to 2nd. Je'Von Ward strikes out swinging, catcher Jhoandro Alfaro to first baseman Ryan Fitzpatrick. Pablo Abreu strikes out swinging.

The closet body type comp I can think of for a second baseman is Michael Cuddyer, who played there for the Twins occasionally.

Both MLB Pipeline and FanGraphs have the FV of his hit tool at 45. I’ve seen between 40-50 in general. The statement “30 which means that is that” is not accurate. And actually if you think his hit tool is currently 30 but could be 45, that’s the opposite of selling high. The lengths people seem to want to go to discredit Corey is... fascinating.

Final: AZL Brewers 7, AZL Reds 1 AZL Brewers Box Score The Brewers beat up on the hapless Reds again, sending them to their 24th loss in 29 games. The offense got 2 singles each from 2018 draftees Korry Howell (playing SS in this one) and Arbert Cipion. Howell has quietly had a really nice start to his career, slashing .324/.424/.357 through his first 33 pro PAs, including 5 walks against 4 strikeouts. Pretty similar to Brice Turang, who DH'd in last night's game - Turang is hitting .361/.455/.417 through 44 PAs, including 7 walks against 4 strikeouts. Turang also picked up his 7th steal in 8 attempts (and a good hit/SB ratio. Carlos Luna started and pitched 3 innings, allowing nothing on a hit and a walk. Hard-throwing 18-year-old Brayan Salaya pitched 4 innings of relief, allowing a run on 3 hits and 2 walks, while striking out 2. The results have been decidedly mixed for Salaya so far after signing back in 2016, but the Brewers clearly like his skill set and fastball that can work into the mid-90's. AZL Brewers Game Log

Final: DSL Rays2 15, DSL Brewers/Indians 9 DSL Brewers/Indians Box Score 17-year-old Brazilian Vitor Watanabe both lead-off and played center field for the first time in his young pro career, and was on base 3 times via two singles and a walk. 3B Rafael Brito notched 3 hits including his second home run, and catcher/DH Eduin Lugo had two hits to keep his career BA at .500 after two pro games. All 15 runs were given up by Indians pitchers. DSL Brewers/Indians Game Log

Final: DSL Brewers 7, DSL Cubs2 0 DSL Brewers Box Score OF Alwinson Valdez hit his 4th home run in as many games while Henry Medina and Abner Uribe combined on a 6 hit shutout to lead the Brewers to an easy win over the Cubs. Before his home run streak began, Valdez was slashing .203/.357/.266, which is actually half-way respectable in the DSL. He's now slashing .235/.359/.408, which doesn't seem fantastic on the surface, but it's good for a 123 wRC+, which is similar to what Keston Hiura is doing in Biloxi. We'll take that from a 6'3 17-year-old. Elsewhere on offense, OF Larry Ernesto added 2 more doubles, bringing his season total to 11. He's slashing .261/.317/.444, with about a 30% K rate, which is higher than you'd like for a top prospect in this league. Another outfielder, young Oswel Leones, had two hits as well to being his season BA up to .292. 1B Francisco Gonzalez and 3B Alberis Ferrer had two hits apiece as well, including a double from Ferrer who is having a sneakily pretty decent season himself. Medina pitched like Medina again, with a low BB (1) and low K (3) game. He pitched a career-high 7 innings, a feat he has accomplished 3 times previously. Medina also was in a fair amount of trouble early on, including a bases-loaded no-out situation in the top of second that he wriggled out of. Ferrer has been great for 4 of his first 5 pro outings, including this one, but his last outing (0.1 IP, 1 H, 3 ER, 3 BB) still looms over his stat line. DSL Brewers Game Log Off the hook: DSL Cubs2 Top of the 2nd Kelvin Hidalgo singles on a line drive to center fielder Carlos Rodriguez. Rafael Herrera singles on a line drive to center fielder Carlos Rodriguez. Kelvin Hidalgo to 2nd. With Christhian Espinal batting, throwing error by Henry Medina on the pickoff attempt, Kelvin Hidalgo to 3rd. Rafael Herrera to 2nd. Christhian Espinal walks. Kevin Miranda ground bunts into a force out, pitcher Henry Medina to catcher Jesus Chirinos. Kelvin Hidalgo out at home. Rafael Herrera to 3rd. Christhian Espinal to 2nd. Kevin Miranda to 1st. Orlando Zapata flies into a double play, right fielder Larry Ernesto to catcher Jesus Chirinos. Rafael Herrera out at home.

RHP Franklin Hernandez ('18 37th rounder) and RHP Logan Gillaspie (recent UDFA signee) promoted from the AZL to Helena. RHP Austin Rubick ('17 29th rounder) promoted from Helena to Wisconsin. RHP Brady Schanuel ('18 27th rounder) transferred from Helena to the AZL.

I don't know about the "easily" part. In terms of relief pitchers going into their 35+ year-old season last winter, only Pat Neshek got $10+ million guaranteed (and so far the Phillies have gotten 8 innings out of him). Matt Albers only got $5 million. For the most part, teams have turned off the tap for older relievers. Also have to think that if Soria thinks he'll be pitching beyond 2019 that there's no way he's getting AAV of more than $10 million next year, so it might make sense to pitch out the current contract and then try to cash in again.

Cridland and to a lesser extent Krause are the two outliers here. Both benefitted in the power department from playing in the Cal League. Cridland was out of pro baseball after the 2001 season. Krause never quiiiiiiiiiiiiite made it to the bigs.

Here's the complete list of Brewers' minor leaguers with a 20-20 season, to put some perspective on the season Corey Ray is having:

Eovaldi fetched a 45 OFP/back-end controllable starter, which is probably a good starting point for Happ. Happ doesn't have the injury concerns that Eovaldi does and has a longer track record, which should be worth something. Maybe something along the lines of Troy Stokes (45-50 OFP) and Cody Ponce (40-45 OFP). Which might be an overpay depending on how you value Stokes.

Final: AZL Brewers 9, AZL Reds 4 AZL Brewers Box Score A somewhat rare offensive breakout for the Baby Brewers moves them to 1-1 in the AZL's second half. The 2 through 5 hitters in the lineup each had 2 hits, including a home run from Aussie catcher Alex Hall (his second on the year) and a triple from 2B Edwin Sano. SS Brice Turang (who made his first pro error and stole his 6th pro base), Aussie 3B Jess Williams, and DH Kekai Rios each had two singles. Turang, Rios, and Hall each drew a walk as well, and further down in the order, 1B Ernesto Martinez and RF Pablo Garabitos each walked twice. Caden Lemons made his 4th start and once again pitched 3 innings, likely on a 45-50 pitch count limit. He allowed one earned run on 3 hits while striking out 3. Remember that Lemons is technically on rehab from the Wisconsin roster, so there's a chance we may yet see him with the Rattlers this year. Michele Vassalotti pitched 5 innings in relief of Lemons and gave up his first home run as a pro, but that was the only hit he gave up on Wednesday night. AZL Brewers Game Log