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PeaveyFury

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Everything posted by PeaveyFury

  1. PeaveyFury
    Interestingly, Yelich has started slowly and had monster 2nd halfs in at least three of my four seasons thus far, so maybe the sim projects him to perform that way?
  2. PeaveyFury
    I'm certainly interested in reading up on this as well and it would be helpful to know where the conventional wisdom is coming from here. It would be interesting to review the source data as well.
  3. PeaveyFury
    I went to the Dr.'s office Friday, and just in my 5 minutes waiting to check in I saw one person wearing a mask that didn't cover her nose, and an older lady who pulled the mask down every time she talked to the people around her. Seriously. It may not be rocket science, but there's clearly a lot of people below that on the learning curve that still don't get it...
  4. PeaveyFury
    The American Academy of Allergies, Asthma, and Immunology has stated that there is no increased infection risk among those who have asthma: https://www.aaaai.org/conditions-and-treatments/library/asthma-library/covid-asthma This has been corroborated by research from the University of Wisconsin, which showed that allergic asthma in adults may actually have a protective benefit and lower increased infection risk. worth noting, though, that the AAAAI's comments clearly note that there is no known increased risk because there is no published data, implying that as we know more that may change: It is important to know that currentlythere is no evidence of increased infection rates in those with asthma. And although the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention states that patients with moderate-severe asthma could be at greater risk for more severe disease, there are no published data to support this determination at this time. Early studies in NY showing the association have largely been proven flawed at this point, though.
  5. PeaveyFury
    Any chance Wilcox makes it through to us?
  6. PeaveyFury
    I'd expect something like that to be build into said contingency plans, and I don't think that would be a bad idea at all. I'd expect it'll depend on the situation that necessitates the shutdown in most cases, but I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of the plans build in a shutdown between Thanksgiving and 14 days following Christmas (school back on Jan. 11th). That part is purely my own speculation, however.
  7. PeaveyFury
    A lot of 2-month Christmas breaks in your neck of the woods?
  8. PeaveyFury
    If this happens, I may seriously just leave the state. I've heard about the contingency plans but not anywhere in those kinds of scary terms. Edit: Hang on, so you just mean that school may close at some point again next year. Oof. Yep!
  9. PeaveyFury
    Sorry if my initial post wasn't clear- I'm 100% certain school will be back in session in the fall. I'm also quite confident there will be another complete closing sometime around the holidays. I would bet a large sum of money that there will be another complete school closing again this coming fall/winter. In Wisconsin? Yep. I'm sure others here also with knowledge of the K-12 system in Wisconsin can speak to the contingency plans their districts are working on for an eventual 20/21 school year closing. Those I've spoken with discuss it in 'when not if' terms. Obviously, things can change as we know more about the virus, but I think it's very possible there's another closing at some point next school year.
  10. PeaveyFury
    I would bet a large sum of money that there will be another complete school closing again this coming fall/winter.
  11. PeaveyFury
    It's worth a note of caution here, though: Though the above is believed to be true for cases that stay completely asymptomatic, there is still significant concern regarding cases where the person has been infected and later develops symptoms, as it is believed that they're still super contagious (pre-symptomatic vs. truly asymptomatic). About 40% of transmissions are happening during this time: https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/09/health/who-coronavirus-asymptomatic-spread-bn/index.html I think everyone hoped that like the flu the summer weather would put a halt to the virus for a while. That it's still a major problem in Arizona suggests that isn't going to be the case.
  12. PeaveyFury
    I'm in the 2023 season of OOTP21, and Sabato (drafted by the Phils at 15 in mine) is putting up good minor league numbers, but hasn't broken through yet. I drafted 1B Michael Brown, who has high projection ratings but is stuck in rookie ball as of yet. I acquired Robert Hassell III somewhere along the line via trade, and he's become a really nice prospect, rated #58.
  13. PeaveyFury
    I think the data reporting on the death rate/contraction rate will be a continuously-evolving number. The new data is largely based on the rough, initial antibody testing, which many are reporting kick off an alarmingly large false-positive rate. If that is accurate, it's artificially pushing down the death rate. https://medicine.wustl.edu/news/experts-urge-caution-in-interpreting-covid-19-antibody-tests/ https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/lab/resources/antibody-tests.html
  14. PeaveyFury
    The data shows a 14-day trend line, which encompasses most of the 're-open' period for most states, including Wisconsin, not over the life of the pandemic. Per capita positive tests should be declining with increased testing, not declining. That it's going the opposite says one of two things- that either 1)The positive rate is actually going up, which is bad; or 2)That the states aren't properly testing, which is also bad.
  15. PeaveyFury
    Yes, the data showed 12 total positive tests in the state of Georgia yesterday, not 12 tests run. I can't find total testing info at this point. My skepticism remains high, as I strongly doubt a state of 11 million people with one of the largest metro areas in the country only had 12 COVID cases....
  16. PeaveyFury
    Curious if you actually clicked through the links to look at the data? The trend lines show an uptick in the positive test rate per capita, not just an increase in the number of cases.
  17. PeaveyFury
    The problem is, the actual data says that none of that is wrong. Wisconsin is one of the 18 states where the cases are trending upward: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html#states Georgia? Consider the hotspot map here which have Georgia, Alabama, and Mississippi lit up in Badger red (red ISN'T good, for the record): https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html Most of Florida's counties have an upward trajectory as well.
  18. PeaveyFury
    Ringo did indeed pass away over the weekend.
  19. PeaveyFury
    Wisconsin's graph on that site is fascinating.
  20. PeaveyFury
    Considering that this virus didn't exist before a few months ago, it doesn't seem so ridiculous that much of the recommendations and data are evolving as scientists have an opportunity to learn more.
  21. PeaveyFury
    Considering that you oddly cutoff your quote of my post before the part where I accepted the premise and used it to apply the data and create an estimate as you called for in your first response, I'll throw a 'what's your deal?' back your way as well. I'd suggest hitting pause, then rewind to go back and re-read the context of the part of my posts you're isolating to take us down this tangent. You're hyper-focused on a tree within the forest that was the point I was making, and even then you've mistakenly identified the type of that tree.
  22. PeaveyFury
    Staff presumably also includes the receptionists, schedulers, etc. that are mostly overhead vs. patient treaters? Your second paragraph that I quoted said, "but how could your friend possibly know that any of those 14 suicides were directly related to COVID? It’s impossible to know for sure". That's what I was responding to - you're correct in that it is not possible to know precisely, but it is possible to do a analysis of the data and come to a really good estimate. So, if we assume that data from a 2-year recessionary period that was longer than a typical recession with market performance also worse than a typical recession is applicable to a 2-month, artificially-created recessionary environment with mass sudden unemployment and assume a 30% increase in the suicide rate, the sad reality is that 11 of those 14 people were making that choice regardless of the 'stay at home' order. It's inherently flawed to try and attribute 100% of a situation like that to a situation or event without recognizing that the baseline isn't 0. Yep. Which makes the odd attempted comparison of 'the cure is worse than the disease' all the more impossible to state. The correct hypothesis isn't something attempting to compare the deaths associated with COVID-19, it's the deaths SAVED by social distancing/stay at home vs. those lost due to increased suicide rates, etc.
  23. PeaveyFury
    A NIH study of the 2007-2009 financial crisis concluded that every 1% increase in unemployment resulted in a 1.6% increase in the suicide rate: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/24973571/ An analysis by the Well Being Trust estimates that the COVID-19 pandemic could result in an additional 75,000 deaths from drug/alcohol abuse and suicide: https://wellbeingtrust.org/news/new-wbt-robert-graham-center-analysis-the-covid-pandemic-could-lead-to-75000-additional-deaths-from-alcohol-and-drug-misuse-and-suicide/ If this is true, considering that an approximately 100,000 people in the US have died of COVID-19 to date, if you exclude nursing home deaths these two numbers as of right now are not that far apart. Not at all what I was asking. Please quantify how many people have been saved by social distancing?
  24. PeaveyFury
    When you state something as blunt as "there are just as many nurses being laid off as there are treating covid patients", it implies that there is data being cited to back that up. As none has been provided, it raises questions about whether that's fact, or the person's opinion. And it's happened multiple times in this thread.
  25. PeaveyFury
    Source? Just curious if you intend to respond to any of these follow-up points/questions/requests for links or data?
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