PeaveyFury

For the most part, yes: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/need-extra-precautions/people-at-higher-risk.html The University of Wisconsin's Health Innovation Program has taken that a step further, and have identified at a zip code level in WI the % of the population that has at least two risk factors: https://hip.wisc.edu/NHP VERY interesting data from UW, thanks for sharing! The county data seems to average 20-30% for most counties across their zips, whether Brown, Dane, Marathon, etc. If the UW study is accurate for TWO risk factors, that's a lot of people staying under further restrictions. I'd have to think that would put one risk factor in the 40-60% range?

Ron Wolf was notoriously bad with his first rounders, yet made his money in the mid to late rounds. That said, Gute will be judged almost entirely on how this year's first rounder does.

The Marlins have a 5-25 record in the OOTP sim. Yeah, the Marlins are horrendous in my OOTP as well. Their rebuild has worked well in my 2021 season, though, as they're leading the east at the deadline.

Isn't it reasonable to question whether the continued stay-at-home orders actually prevented that spike from happening, and continued to delay hospital capacity issues? Your entire post seems to contradict the Minnesota study that you yourself have cited repeatedly- namely, that a delay of re-opening continued/continues to delay a hospital surge, and also that their rosier morbidity rates STILL RELY ON A 50% CAPACITY REDUCTION FOR ALL, in addition to strict requirements for the elderly and vulnerable as you suggest. Also, isn't suggesting a benefit from 'acquired immunity' very dangerous at this point? There continues to be a question of what type of immunity is actually acquired, and if so, there is zero data on how long that remains. Additionally, are we any closer to knowing exactly who the "vulnerable" are? Is it just the elderly? Is it those with diabetes? Heart disease? Asthma? High blood pressure? I find it hard to suggest a 'quarantine of the vulnerable' when we don't really know for sure who those people are. The 'n' is potentially tens of millions of people. In the end, things will gradually reopen, and I do think the revised order suggests a logical way to start to do so. I suspect there will be much trial and error, and a lot will be learned from the states that open more suddenly. Hopefully it will be positive items that are learned, rather than the potentially terrible other result.

Isn't the actual reality here the opposite? There are widespread reports that unless you have proven direct exposure, you're not getting a COVID-19 test (or weren't until the last couple of weeks). Even then, testing is sporatic & inconsistently administered across the states and probably even across our state.

Thanks for sharing. I do remember how panned that draft was, especially after Rodgers sat and Collins struggled his first season or two. And man, how even better that draft would look if not for two spine injuries. We'll never know what Murphy would have become, but Collins' career was cut short maybe halfway through a career that may have been on a HOF-like trajectory. You pull two HOFers from a draft, that's legendary stuff.

The next RB taken was at 76. 86 after that and 93 just before our 3rd round pick. There were a number of higher pre-draft guys expected to be gone before then, like Baun. Why not have traded down? After you traded up? If that WR group he was clamoring to snag one was all gone that was 13 picks or more from your selection, there is a great amount of time to get on the phone alert youre looking to trade down. And Id have to assume some of the same notion with Deguara. How is he not capable to move back where the pick more suits the value to the player? Like I said earlier I would estimate he could have gotten a top 100 pick with the value of not reaching on his picks. Lets just go with pick 1 or 2 of 4th rd. Akeem Gaither OLB or Saahdiq Charles OT from LSU. Its the 2nd draft bringing this up. We'll see if it happens again next season. Will he learn from this post draft media ranking and adjust his style? Or will he be out there spending $20 for $17 return value. If he adjusts his style because of post-draft grades, he should be fired. Post-draft grades are for the fans. All he should care about is how the draft is graded 3-5 years from now. As it has been said before, you need to accept that the Packers' draft values are different than yours. And so far, that has worked out pretty well in a lot of ways. We'll see if this works out well over the next couple of years as well. Also, trading down doesn't happen without a 2nd willing party. Considering where the Packers were positioned later in the rounds, it's very feasible that interest in their picks was limited. We'll never know what was or wasn't an actual option, it's all just theory and speculation by us fans who know very little overall about the process.

There's a current theory that getting the asymptomatic kind of COVID-19 might not result in enough antibodies to prevent a second infection. There's obviously a ton of research that still needs to be done.

I would REALLY like Chris Orr to get a tryout at least. I know the NFL doesn't seem to like him, and I'm biased, but I think he's interesting as a camp guy at the very least.

Oof NFL prospect report is awful sounding. UDFA projected. Consequently, both CBSSports and the Athletic had him as a 6.

What the heck happened to Tyler Johnson to have him fall into the 5th? He had a 2nd/3rd-round grade. EDIT: Wow, the projections were all over the place for him.

Good to see the Badgers come off the board, but other than Taylor going exactly where he was expected, Baun and Biadasz both slid further than I though/hoped they would. Baun had a some kind of test that caused him to drop. Biadasz. I seen number of mocks with him as a 2nd rd pick but prospect rankings that he was a late 3 early 4 pick. But Baun's test was known about a week or two ago, and he was still projected in the late 1st. In most re-mocks yesterday, he was one of the first players off the board in the 2nd. Clearly the projections were wrong, but the hope was that he'd go higher.

Good to see the Badgers come off the board, but other than Taylor going exactly where he was expected, Baun and Biadasz both slid further than I though/hoped they would.

The issue is, just because you don't know doesn't mean the Packers didn't know something. You/we have a fraction of the information that the teams have, and we have almost nothing regarding what teams like what player and who is looking to move around, when teams have ways of knowing. For all the crap the Packers took from fans for taking Gary at 12, it came out later that the Giants really liked him and may have taken him at 17. In YOUR mind, there were 3-4 equal options, but in the PACKERS' mind, Gary was likely enough ahead that they weren't content to slide back and take a lesser player on their board that fell to them. Other than basing our views off some random guy's mock draft online, we have no clue where a guy like Jenkins goes last year if the Packers don't take him. MOCKS ARE WRONG EVERY YEAR. That's how '1st round guys' like Baun and Jones slide to the 3rd every single year. They're best guesses, not gospel. I find it funny that Gute is now being criticized for doing the opposite of what Thompson was criticized for- Ted took a very passive approach in the draft, and would often drop back 5-7 slots if they had 3-4 guys on the board they were comfortable with. Gute is identifying players that he feels stand out on his board, and he's going to get them. Packer fans literally only want the draft conducted the way they personally would do it, which is funny when the Packers have a solid history of being smarter than the fans are. As I've said, I wouldn't have done it this way. And it's the type of draft that will get Gute fired in 2-3 years or cement himself as a genius GM. But trying to determine which of those is true during the fourth round of the draft itself is basically impossible.

There is, but I also feel like I've been saying that when our pick comes up in every round so far only to end up saying, "Who?" Yeah, me too.

I do think people are taking the 'Rodgers wants to play 4 more years stuff' a bit too literally. Who's to say that if he has another season where he regresses, or has another chunk of time lost due to an injury, that he doesn't hang it up much sooner? I'd bet that Jones and Dillon are on the field together a lot. I'd say their lack of drafting a WR implies that they mean to use Jones in a receiving role heavily. LaFleur's offense is known to rely heavility on two-TE sets. Deguara's pick says little to nothing about Sternberger, except for the idea that they wanted a TE that blocks well, and that's secondary to Sternberger's skills as a receiver. Logical to take a 2nd TE that does well there, as otherwise you're playing Mercedes Lewis a lot more than you should. I think it's a big reach to judge anything about the first three drafts when the third is literally still in progress. The success of this draft will largely rely on Love, and that means the jury will be out for 3-5 years. Last year's draft actually looks really good, so I'm not sure where the criticism lies there, especially with Sternberger and Gary still with largely incomplete grades thus far. And I'm still out on 2018, though we're at the point where it's tilting to poor. Alexander has been fantastic, and it WAS his first ever draft, FWIW.

I really wish we had a 4th rounder here. Seems like a lot of talent here that could help.

Again, for them to link the two, they have to have something beyond a 'gut feeling.'

Yeah, I’d agree with that completely. Add a guy like Queen to the top of that, and all of us would feel much better, I think.

I think that’s a very fair and good point. It is worth noting, though, that where he has gone off the beaten path in his two previous drafts (Jenkins, Savage, Alexander), he’s hit home runs. Gary could end up in there two when we have more of him to on.

Where did you see that? Last year it was Brett Kern (1st team) and Tress Way (2nd team). In 2018 it was Dickson and Hekker. I do know that in 2018, Scott led the league in hang time and fewest % of punts returned. Good call- he was PFF All-Pro, which is oddly on his profile. I didn't realize the distinction until now. But the point remains, he's performed at an all-pro level in the past.

There's a difference between a 'contributor' like Ripkowski and an all-pro level player, regardless of position. Scott was basically the MVP of the first Bears game last year. Regardless, the point is that I challenge the narrative of people 'convincing themselves' about the 2018 draft. Alexander wasn't on many radars, and he's been great. Everyone was excited about Jackson, because he was a percieved mid-first rounder that fell to our 2nd. The rest? Who convinced themselves anything other than the typical hopeful potential of the 3rd-day guys? Now if he had said the 2015 or 2017 drafts? You bet. But that's again a different regime.

Scott was 2nd team All-Pro.

I recall the Jenkins pick going over very poorly here last year.

Who were people 'talking themselves into,' exactly? Josh Jackson, who had been mocked to teams in the mid-first (including the Packers' first round pick)? Maybe Orin Burks? After that, you have a bunch of mid to late-round picks, many of which have shown some promise in some ways, and the others are the typical fliers that sometimes work and often don't. I don't know what the heck happened with Scott midway through last year, but they got two all-pro level players from that draft, and I'm convinced that one of Madison, MVS, or St. Brown will end up being the 3rd 'significant contributor' that you need to call a draft successful.