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PeaveyFury

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Everything posted by PeaveyFury

  1. PeaveyFury
    Out of college and even through his first year, I thought he was going to be a solid lineman. Man, that ended poorly.
  2. PeaveyFury
    I agree. But that's an opportunity to reload very quickly if necessary.
  3. PeaveyFury
    Yelich and Hader are both under contract through 2022 and 2023, respectively, so neither would be a rental at that point. So I agree with rick here, 2020 and 2021 are still both in play.
  4. PeaveyFury
    Rick, AAA numbers are practically video game numbers this year. Saladino hit 14 HR and slugged almost .570 there as a middle IF....
  5. PeaveyFury
    Bold added for emphasis. They didn't choose to trade much, and didn't get much back. Because they knew we were the 2018 Pirates. Unlike the 2018 Pirates though, our FO recognized the problems that would limit the team going forward and didn't make a bunch of stupid moves chasing better teams than us. Instead, they traded excess players with baggage for two upside arms for the future (which makes a lot of sense for this team going FORWARD), and two stopgap arms to fill two of the 4-5 holes on the roster. Fans can hate it if they want, but the team didn't go all-in because they knew when to fold them. This wasn't an all-in year.
  6. PeaveyFury
    The Brewers correctly identified that this wasn't the year to trade what little they had left of assets to chase a playoff spot when the team has 4-5 holes. They were close enough not to want to sell, though some of us suspected they should have. They instead chose to try to fill those holes to a point, while knowing that they didn't have the ammo to go all-in this year. I'm fine with what they did. If anything, I wish they had sold.
  7. PeaveyFury
    Arcia was never elite. His dropoff in 2019 isnt even in the quoted numbers. ' I never used the word elite in my post. He used to play defense at an above-average level that offset a lot of his offensive limitations. This year, that has decreased dramatically. You seem to think that's the sign of a long-term issue, but I question whether a 24 year old is experiencing permanent physical declines. He's hit better this year, and if his defense does rebound, he'd be above replacement level if he can sustain his 2019 offensive production going forward. I didn't miss the point, I just don't think it was a particularly valid one. As your point was that Yuni was terrible for his career, had a good playoff run which was magnified because it was in the playoffs, people overlooked a bad career? Not buying it. Everyone here knew Yuni was bad. My issue with said point is that Arcia is 5 years younger than Yuni was, and didn't have nearly the crappy career Yuni had had at that point. Arcia has already had a better season in 2017 than Yuni ever had, which is why people still think that there's room to grow for a 24 year old. You seem to think that he's reached his ceiling. As others have pointed out, we gave up too early on Segura because we weren't patient enough, and it is POSSIBLE that they're heading toward the same situation here.
  8. PeaveyFury
    A lot of your retort is done with the benefit of hindsight. Sitting here today, would the Brewers retroactively pick up the option? Of course. At the time, when they didn't know that Knebel would get hurt, 4/5 of the rotation would be a failure, and that other, similar looking options like Petricka, Gurerra, etc. would be useless, it made sense. Wilson wasn't acquired until well after Lyles was with the Pirates. In the end, if Lyles had stunk with Pittsburgh, or if the Brewers had similar success with their bullpen, this would have been a non-event. In the end, they gave up virtually nothing (which is what Ponce is more likely to be) to get him back because they had to. Meh.
  9. PeaveyFury
    Do you really believe he forgot how to play defense? I certainly can't explain the dropoff this year, but it don't think he's destined for it to be a permanant issue. But while on the topic of poor comparisons, Yuni B.'s playoff success came as a 29 year old, and Arcia's was at 24. There's still reason to think Arcia can develop from that, where as Yuni was at his hypothetical peak, if he had that.
  10. PeaveyFury
    I'll let other, smarter people do the talking: The values from tonight's blockbuster: #Indians get: Franmil Reyes ($32.4M), Logan Allen ($14.7M), Yasiel Puig ($6.5m), Scott Moss ($0.4M), Victor Nova (NR) TOTAL - $54.0M #Padres get: Taylor Trammell ($50.2M) #Reds get: Trevor Bauer ($34.4M) The #Padres values are balanced. This means that we're either severely undervaluing Trevor Bauer, or the #Reds overpaid. We believe it's the latter. Over the past year, we've seen only one overpay in a trade for a starting pitcher - Cincinnati's offseason trade for Sonny Gray. The #Reds have mentioned the difficulties of luring free agent pitchers to Cincinnati, and their willingness to overpay in a trade as a result. This is a higher-variance trade than we're used to seeing, but we've seen other high-variance trades from the Reds in the past. And from our resident 'surplus value' expert, Joseph C: Reds = -42.4 million in surplus value Added - Bauer (+28.2) Subtracted - Puig (+3.1), Moss (+5.5), Trammell (+62.0) Indians = +25.4 million in surplus value Added - Puig (+3.1), Moss (+5.5), Reyes (+27.0), Allen (+15.8), Nova (+2.2) Subtracted - Bauer (+28.2) Padres = +17 million in surplus value Added - Trammell (+62.0) Subtracted - Reyes (+27.0), Allen (+15.8), Nova (+2.2)
  11. PeaveyFury
    Fixed it for you, IMO, of course. Your post severely devalues the prospects given.
  12. PeaveyFury
    Yikes. Not sure what Yelich was waiting on there.
  13. PeaveyFury
    You set a price on the remaining contract that you're willing to pay relative to the 2019 budget and beyond, then talk prospects beyond that. The trade value site has Grienke valued significantly negatively because of his contract, despite how great he's been this year. If the Brewers have the flexibility to take on a chunk of that, their prospect cost should stay fairly low.
  14. PeaveyFury
    To summarize my thoughts on the points that are being made in this thread: 1) Should the Brewers have spent $3.5 million of resources by picking up Lyles' option last winter? Probably not. 2) Would the team have been better if they had? Probably. Though they likely wouldn't have used him a starter like Pittsburgh did. 3) Do I care that they gave up Ponce, a 25 year old having success in his third year in AA prior to being Rule 5 eligible? Not really. 4) Do I think Lyles can help by spot starting initially and then as a bullpen upgrade? Sure. 5) Am I sure that he's better than other options on the market? Not sure. But I do think he's better than what we had in the bullpen. and 6)Eight pages on Jordan Lyles? Hopefully there will be something more significant for us to discuss this week....
  15. PeaveyFury
    Yep. Gaining a spot starter/possible bullpen asset that's at least better than the Burch Smiths of the world for nothing isn't much to get concerned about. This isn't going to stop a larger move if they find one they like.
  16. PeaveyFury
    Exactly the type of deal I expected. With limited resources and a lot of holes, you have to make a couple of deals like this to try to improve with a low cost. There's room for maybe one significant deal, but I think there will be another deal like this (or two) to add another fringe pen arm and starter for very little.
  17. PeaveyFury
    Seems interesting... wonder who they'd be targeting on that staff?
  18. PeaveyFury
    Didn't realize the nice season Villar has had in Baltimore.
  19. PeaveyFury
    Don't have to take on the ENTIRE salary. Obviously, the more you do, the less you have to offer, though.
  20. PeaveyFury
    The more I think about it, the more Grienke makes sense. The Brewers don't have the farm to go after high-powered names like Thor, but they could be able to get Grienke if they're willing to take on most of the contract. They'd have to be willing to do so, obviously, but it wouldn't cost them as much as other options.
  21. PeaveyFury
    Play nice guys. It’d be rough to be suspended during the deadline, I’d think.
  22. PeaveyFury
    Aren’t you similarly reliant on Thor being far better than his season so far as well, where he’s been outperformed by Zach Davies?
  23. PeaveyFury
    Because the Brewers have about 5 holes to fill, and if they’re going to use their very limited amount of resources to try and plug them, I’d rather go and get a guy that is likely to make a significant impact now but won’t command the price that Thor will based on name alone. Diaz is a great opportunity to buy on a bad first half and hope the Mets are dumb enough to under sell on him, which they might be. I'd be wary of Diaz. He is having a horrendous year. In his last 30 games he has allowed at least one hit in 21 games and multiple hits in 9 of those 30 games. Hits and walks are way up over last year. There has to be a reason he went from a monster to a mop-up guy almost overnite. A horrendous year for a reliever amounts to 39 innings, in Diaz’s case. A perfect time to buy, especially from an organization that does everything wrong. Young, 3.5 years of control, and a history of domination.
  24. PeaveyFury
    But you HAVE TO realize, you're saying that you're ok trading off people that have either little value or whose value is massively depressed (Burnes). You're not getting significant pieces for our crap.
  25. PeaveyFury
    Why?? Right now they ABSOLUTELY need a starter. Not saying Thor or someone like that, but they absolutely cannot, CANNOT use the "bullpen" approach, or use Wilkerson etc as Chacin's replacement. Not in the middle of a pennant race. That would be downright negligent. Because the Brewers have about 5 holes to fill, and if they’re going to use their very limited amount of resources to try and plug them, I’d rather go and get a guy that is likely to make a significant impact now but won’t command the price that Thor will based on name alone. Diaz is a great opportunity to buy on a bad first half and hope the Mets are dumb enough to under sell on him, which they might be.
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