adambr2

I'd put it at 25% right now. The longer we stay in contention, the longer he continues to rake, and the worse Villar does, the more likely it gets. Still think most likely mid 2019. But 25% is a lot higher than I would have put it back in the spring.

But I have provided statistical examples of why we may be at the extreme end of inconsistency/boom or bust offenses. Cubs - 25 of 75 games at 2 runs or less. 33.3%.

Now instead of using a comparable offense I decided to compare us to the worst offense in the American League (Royals) and worst offense in the National League (Marlins) to see the results there. The Royals are 29 for 77 (37.6%) in getting held under 3 runs and the Marlins are 30 for 76 (39.4%). STILL not as bad offensively as we are in terms of total percentage of games held to 2 or less runs.

Throwing out another catching target. The Reds are obviously, rebuilding. Barnhart is somewhat serviceable offensively with little pop but does get on base well for a catcher and strikes out at a minimal clip and is excellent defensively. The nice thing about Barmhart is that he has a very team friendly Lucroy type contract that keeps him under club control at a very modest cost through 2022. This is also the bad thing about Barnhart since that low price and controlability likely will come at a higher trade price than one might expect.

Ramos would be a great addition. Not a huge needle mover but someone who at least improves the catcher spot to a passable spot in the offense without being a defensive detriment. Assuming you aren't going to pay the price for Realmuto, I'd go after Ramos sooner rather than later. Moving Ramos would save them millions, and the Rays are always cutting costs so I don't think it would be much.

I have no real idea how to evaluate Darnell Coles but I fail to see how replacing him could be a negative thing in any way. Every young hitter in the lineup with the exception of Aguilar is drastically underperforming expectations. The guy is in his 4th season and hasn't cranked out an offense over 20th in runs scored over a season. I can't see what positive benefit he is bringing to the table.

I wouldn't put Hiura and Realmuto in the same category as ballplayers. Catcher is a premium position, fine. But, Hiura knows how to hit at a special level. You never know, if he avoids injury he could end up with 2,500 - 3,000 hits some day. I once said that about an injury prone Paul Molitor and my friends laughed at me. I haven't said that for any Brewer since...until now with Hiura. I am not going to move that type of memorable hitter for a JT Realmuto. That would be a bitter disappointment if Stearns and Arnold did that. I really don't think they would. The problem with this is that you're comparing a very known quantity in Realmuto, to a very unknown quantity in Hiura. Realmuto is probably the best overall catcher in baseball right now. If not, certainly top 3. It's incredibly early to project Hiura as a 2,500-3,000 hit guy. That's 1,000 more than where Braun is right now. I'm not saying he can't, and his hit ability does seem very real. But he's not the first. 13 years ago Rickie Weeks looked like a potential superstar 2nd baseman. Sometimes it just doesn't work out, and that's the problem with valuing the unknown. Maybe Hiura comes up and hits .250 with a .325 OBP at this level. You just don't ever know. You are right that you can't put Hiura and Realmuto in the same category as ballplayers -- Realmuto is a proven MLB star, Keston is not. None of this is to say that you should value Realmuto more than Hiura. Far from it, I know there's a ton of upside in Keston's bat and that would be tough for me to part with as well. Just saying -- you referred to Hiura as a memorable hitter, but at this point in time, he's a POTENTIAL memorable hitter. The known elite quantity costs more because it is known. Which is why Yelich cost much more than just Brinson despite Brinson's possible ceiling as a 30/30 player.

As long as HighHeat's source is there that's all that matters to me.

To me I just don't get the concept of untouchable or off the table. You have to remain open to any opportunity or you could let good value pass you by. If we had untouchables, Christian Yelich wouldn't be a Brewer. We had an opportunity to add a really good player and we took it. Hiura is the closest thing I would ever have to an untouchable, it would take something great. If the Marlins offered Realmuto for Hiura straight up, no other prospects involved, I can't promise I'd say no. I can't promise I'd say yes, either. But I'd have a price on anyone.

I was curious to see how much it's hurting us in the standings to have such an inconsistent offense that breaks out on some days and completely disappears on others. While it's obviously impossible to have a completely consistent offense, I noticed that we have now scored 2 or less runs after 9 innings in a shocking 31 of our games this season, or over 40%! To see if it was simply my own bias at work that that number seemed so high, I compared it to a random NL team that compared close to us in terms of total offense, so I went with the Phillies, and found that they have been held to 2 or less runs in just over 28% of their contests (21 out of 74), so our number does seem very high. So I wanted to see how much that such inconsistency costs us -- where exactly would we be in the standings with a completely consistent, yet average, offense? No more 11 run outbursts, no more being shutout. I credited us for 4 runs per game. I gave us a win in any game that we had allowed less than 4 runs after 9 innings, and a loss if more. I gave us 50% wins and 50% losses in any game we allowed exactly 4 runs after 9, though one could argue our generally superior bullpen should allow for better than that rate. I came up with 312 runs scored, a full 22 less than we have now, but a total record of 50-27, 5 games better than our actual performance. It's hard for me to blame starting pitching when I see that number. 40% nearly matched our loss percentage. You are not going to win games very often scoring 2 runs. What is my point? I guess that to me, fixing this lineup so it isn't so bottom deficient, is a bigger priority to me than pitching. Yes, I get that you can't perform with complete consistently like this but it's clear that our performance compared to average MLB teams is indeed extreme when it comes to inconsistency.

Lost in the bad Chacin performance is yet another stinkfest by the offense. 11 runs in Game 1. 2 runs in Game 2. 2 runs in Game 3. 2 runs in Game 4. Brewers' offense, folks.

It has everything to do with baseball.... nothing to do with race. Sorry for not agreeing with you on our best 2nd base option, but you keep the race card in your hand. I don't know if he was saying that, and I make no such accusation, but it takes some pretty insanely serious bias to think that Sogard is our best 2B option. Villar is a better option. Perez is a better option. Miller is a better option. Saladino would be a better option once healthy. Starting Hiura's clock to get his bat up here is a better option. That would make Sogard about the 6th best existing option without even getting into debates about the current journeyman guys at AAA who would probably be better and the external options that could be acquired for a song. Starting Eric Sogard every day at second base would be an insanely bad option and massively worsen the already black hole at the bottom of our lineup.

Eric Sogard is 100% a product of the "good old boy" system. Someone high up with some clout in the organization loves the guy and wants him here badly. Stearns? Counsell? Mark A? Someone else? I have no idea, but someone. Because of that they're giving him every possible chance to stick here. Boone Logan had no such relationship in the organization, Sogard does. Remember, as a veteran, Sogard didn't have to accept a minor league assignment. So I'm guessing he was talked to and told, "Look, we've got to make this move right now. We have to. But it's just temporary. The first chance we have, first injury, we are getting you back up here." And they did. Remember, Sogard did absolutely nothing in Colorado Springs to earn a trip back up. He continued to stink it up there. That's not to say Sogard is untouchable. He's not. It's still a business, and at some point you can't dodge the tough decision any longer. But he's been given a tremendously longer leash than he would be given anywhere else. What do you think the odds are that if the Cubs had signed Sogard to a 1 year, $2.4M deal, that he would still be on their 25 man right now? **** This is all, obviously, and hopefully this goes without saying, my opinion and take, and can't be proven or disproven. I don’t believe you’re wrong in anything you just stated. It comes off as a little too much of a tinfoil hat take for my liking, but at the same time I don't find it outlandish at all Fortunately, once Saladino comes back, I don't see how they can justify it any longer. It's not even justifiable now with Miller here. It would be nice if Arcia started to hit a little bit to make it less of a decision.

Eric Sogard is 100% a product of the "good old boy" system. Someone high up with some clout in the organization loves the guy and wants him here badly. Stearns? Counsell? Mark A? Someone else? I have no idea, but someone. Because of that they're giving him every possible chance to stick here. Boone Logan had no such relationship in the organization, Sogard does. Remember, as a veteran, Sogard didn't have to accept a minor league assignment. So I'm guessing he was talked to and told, "Look, we've got to make this move right now. We have to. But it's just temporary. The first chance we have, first injury, we are getting you back up here." And they did. Remember, Sogard did absolutely nothing in Colorado Springs to earn a trip back up. He continued to stink it up there. That's not to say Sogard is untouchable. He's not. It's still a business, and at some point you can't dodge the tough decision any longer. But he's been given a tremendously longer leash than he would be given anywhere else. What do you think the odds are that if the Cubs had signed Sogard to a 1 year, $2.4M deal, that he would still be on their 25 man right now? **** This is all, obviously, and hopefully this goes without saying, my opinion and take, and can't be proven or disproven.

Well, so much for that. Just not our day. Had the Cardinals by the throat after Game 2 and could not finish them.

Might as well take a crack at cutting the lead in half with Aguilar.

No, he won't... Does anyone really think we are scoring 9+ runs today?

As nice as it would have been to put some space between us and the Cubs, it's a missed opportunity for them too to pull back with us. Works both ways. Regardless, we need to start controlling the things we can control and play better baseball. Won't be easy with all the injuries, but I'd like to see them strengthen their bench internally a little bit and stop hanging onto guys who have no business being on an MLB 25 man roster.

As nice as it would have been to put some space between us and the Cubs, it's a missed opportunity for them too to pull back with us. Works both ways. Regardless, we need to start controlling the things we can control and play better baseball. Won't be easy with all the injuries, but I'd like to see them strengthen their bench internally a little bit and stop hanging onto guys who have no business being on an MLB 25 man roster.

Way more likely to see Aguilar there. Even more likely to see Perez or Miller. They've got plenty of options for 3rd without going there.

Sogard always makes contact though.

I'm not sure why a game in June would impact ordering tickets to a game at the end of July... I think it was a statement of our general performance on Sundays.

Very disappointing to not win this series after the way it started especially against a hated rival. Has not been a good month for the Brewers.

This lineup stinks, we already lost Shaw and don't have Cain available. If Aguilar isn't going to be used we have Manny Pina and Eric 'Toots' Sogard off the bench. Obviously, hope you're right but I don't see us coming up with 7 runs today.

Turning out to be a disappointing series after all.