adambr2

Keon Buxton bails us out of damage again.

I am not sure why that is an error on Villar. The throw wasn't perfect but come on, it hit Aguilar's glove.

Tough, but Aguilar needs to snag that.

Nope! This is one of the better IGTs so far actually. Free and easy casual conversation, no confrontation, and game discussion. Usually Page 1 and 2 are for talking about how dumb the lineup is and by this page we're just talking about how much we suck.

I'm putting the horse way before the cart here because Choi hasn't proven he belongs yet. But I was thinking more like roster accounting tricks than any one particular guy. Williams goes down for 10 days every so often, Barnes goes down for 10 every so often. Suter could go down anytime. 5th starters could go down when they won't be needed. Braun will probably hit the DL every 1-2 months. Stuff like that while over the course of the season basically affords you another roster spot.

Buxton really isn't that much different than Keon Broxton. Trouble for the Twins is he was a top prospect so he'll get all the time in the world.

Problem is I can’t see anyone else leaving at this point. We'll see. A few months ago we thought there was no way they had room for Aguilar (I was one of those people anyway) and now he's pretty much considered totally safe. They've done well to find room for guys who deserve to be here. Maybe they can get creative enough to find room for one more if he can prove he deserves to be here too.

I hope Choi makes it very difficult to send him back down.

Can't they DH for any position? It's just common practice to DH for the pitcher. If I am recalling correctly we could have Suter hit and DH for somebody like Arcia. They could but that would be stupid. Even if Suter was a better hitter then Arcia(which he isn't) then the pitcher would have to hit or be pinch hit for after Suter was out of the game. Common misconception but you actually cannot. Baseball rules only allow for the pitcher to be replaced in the lineup by a DH.

Top end, best of the best relievers fetch crazy good returns and Hader definitely falls into that category. The Cubs gave up the best prospect in baseball to rent Aroldis Chapman for 2 months. Hader is that tier of reliever only young and cheap and here for 6 years. In a hypothetical world where we put Hader on the market today I would guess half the teams in baseball would want in on the bidding and he would fetch at least what we ended up giving up for Yelich IMO.

The only guy they have that is even kind of intriguing to me is Rougned Odor, and he was pretty bad last year so it would have to just be a giveaway flyer that he can get back to where he was pre-2017. He's still only 24 though and the Rangers signed him to a long-term deal so I doubt they want to deal him much less for nothing.

I feel you, but with the aggressive nature of their bullpen use as well as guys like Davies, Anderson, and Braun on the DL it is nice to have a day off as often as possible. Agreed. And we still have one more game played than Pittsburgh, 3 more than Cardinals, and 4 more than Cubs. Knock on wood but have we even had a single rain delay this year much less a postponement? I can't think of a single one.

It is too bad Broxton is hitting so crummy or this actually makes a bit of sense for them. Well he was 4 for 4 last night and is on pace for about a 20/50 season. So for the most part, same old Broxton. Still can't bring that K number down, power and speed is good, low average. Good thing is that the Red Sox aren't really in a position to demand much for Swihart anyway. If they're intrigued in any way by Broxton, I'd pull the trigger.

Yeah Anderson Chacin Guerra Davies is fine for now. If Woodruff can build on his last start and improve I have no issue giving him the #5, but I hope they don't hold Peralta back just because of his age if they think he's one of our 5 best. Suter just doesn't really belong in the discussion with everyone healthy since there's just not an upside there, but like you said he's fine as the long man. There is no real #1 on this team but they have so much depth for #2-#4., good problem to have and lots of internal competition to stay in the rotation as they await Nelson's return.

Not to be that guy but just asking, if Ray reclaims his former top 30 value is there really any way he is NOT trade bait rather than part of the future? Cain and Yelich presumably aren't going anywhere anytime soon. Maybe you could groom him as the RF of the future, but it's hard to see them grooming a guy as a CF just to waste him in right.

It was a hard earned glory typing all that just to plug him in at 40. But seriously, even if he was as good as Cain he would probably be 40, just the way it goes with the contract size. If he has an amazing career renaissance to AS form and gets dealt I'll gladly point it out. Cain will probably replace Braun here in 3 years. I love Cain, and even like his contract but the writing is on the wall with his age and deal. The plus side is they'll never have to worry about his 10/5 kicking in.

I agree that Chacin has value. I just have a tough time grading guys who literally just signed FA contracts and so basically just determined their own break even point for surplus value. And Eye Black when I really think about it Yelich is probably worth as much as Hader. I don't think I can argue with that. Just seemed right to me to put Hader on top since I would guess that he should/would fetch a higher total value than what we gave up for Yelich. In retrospect, what we gave up for Yelich almost seems like a light return to me.

* Please don't take this as an endorsement or suggestion that we actually should or should not trade anyone. This is merely an exercise in valuation. ** Going for surplus value here, so contract matters. Equally productive starting pitchers, for instance, would be valued much differently for a 25 year old with 5 years control remaining than a 30 year old with 2 years and $30M remaining on his deal. *** I just used the 40 man roster. Had to draw the line somewhere. 1: Hader Is anyone else even really close? Hader checks about every box an organization could want -- cheap, controlled hardthrowing, elite reliever, with the possible bonus for a team to convert him to a starter. It's hard to peg down exactly what the Brewers would be willing to part with him for. I'd speculate that it would take a team with a top 5 prospect in all of baseball plus other pieces, or at least 3 or 4 top 50 pieces. 2: Yelich You saw what we just gave up for him, so it's reasonable to imagine the return would be among the same lines right now, which was one of the bonus features of trading for Yelich -- he's basically a refundable asset the next 2 years or so if things go awry and shift back to rebuilding mode. 3-7: Knebel, Shaw, Arcia, Anderson, Davies Here's where things start to get a lot more subjective and I'm sure there will be disagreement. All these players have significant attractions. All are well-controlled and range from very young to prime years. An ask centered around a top 50 or so prospect would not be unreasonable. 8-13: Santana, Woodruff, Jeffress, Peralta, Williams, Phillips I want to throw Santana in the above group but it's become clear that corner OFers have been devalued. Woodruff still has value but probably a notch lower than his low top 100 prospect status based on MLB performance. Jeffress is just so hard to peg. He's dominant, he's cheap, he's controlled, he SHOULD be very valuable, but you can't help but think teams would be scared off by history at this point. You're probably looking at 2 or so prospects from the 8-15 level of an organization's system here, depending on the strength of the system. 14-23: Thames, Aguilar, Albers, Guerra, Suter, Nottingham, Dubon, Barnes, Diplan, Pina Here's a whole slew of guys that I think probably put you in line for an organizational top 12 or a couple lottery tickets. Or if you're using them to buy, they might get you a decent rental to fill a hole of need. Obviously you get to this part of the field it's almost totally subjective -- you've got guys that are still prospects themselves, proven guys, just about everything. 24: Houser I could not for the life of me decide whether Adrian belonged on the tier above or the tier below. So I put him on his own. 25-30: Broxton, Villar, Jennings, Perez, Lopez, Logan These guys are worth very little. For the right fit on the right team, maybe you get a decent lottery ticket back that turns out to be the next Freddy Peralta. These guys don't have cost prohibitive tags which prevents them from being ranked even lower. 31-37: Asher, Saladino, Sogard, Wilkerson, Bandy, Choi, Franklin These guys are worth nothing. If traded, they're the classic PTBNL or cash. 38-39: Cain, Chacin Here's where "surplus value" makes things confusing, because these are good players, and Cain is a really good one. Yet, they both just signed FA contracts and are both performing at expected levels for that contract, making them really no more positive or negative than the day they signed. As I think we learned with the Marlins and Stanton, the larger the contract for a productive player, the tougher it is to determine value. Any return can depend on what we're willing to eat, what the market is at the time, etc. etc. I don't necessarily "rank" these guys as 38-39. It's just very difficult to determine their trade value. 40: Braun Unfortunately he does belong in a category his own because he's the only player on the 40 with a clear cut negative surplus value. Still, that can be spun into a positive as some teams have a slew of such contracts on the roster -- we have one, which is indicative that the FO has been generally smart in the contracts they've handed out.

After all this discussion watch it be Sogard. No hints from the Colorado Springs lineup tonight. Everyone you would reasonably expect to be in is in.

Ugh. I mean, everyone pretty much knew it was coming, but still, ugh. While there are no guarantees it would have ended any differently, there is a possibility that the team's mishandling of Braun and the 10-day DL could very well have cost them the game on Tuesday. There was no way Bandy should have ever been used as a pinch hitter, but he was forced into that role during Braun's latest "day-to-day" episode. Braun has never been a fast healer, so I think this was pretty clear roster mismanagement that proved costly. This is exactly what I've been trying to explain. There is no such thing as Braun "healing" any injury. These are chronic problems with his back, calf, thumb, fill in the blank. He can go on the 10 day DL once or 20 times over the next three years and it doesn't change anything. The day he returns from the DL his back or whatever else could act up again. You simply can't put him on the 10 day DL every time something is bothering him, because something will always be bothering him. It will always ALWAYS be a tough call on when to ride it out and when to bite the bullet and DL him. He's going to need regular DL stints every couple months to at least recharge. Yeah you can't do it every time but I'd plan on doing it every 6 weeks or so for whatever, you can't just constantly play a man down. And I disagree with being okay with waiting. Braun is not a great player, if you need to replace him with Phillips or Choi or Broxton for 10 days and he could have come back after 7 or 8 it is not a big deal and you're not really losing anything major. 3 days is already 30% of a DL stint and that is just inefficient to be willing to constantly go a man down that often. When Jett Bandy is your top option off the bench in a tight game you are poorly managing your day to day injuries. Braun has a .409 OPS in May so far. If you want to attribute that to his back, that's totally fine but that supports the point further that trying to force him to play through everything is an exercise in futility. Just DL him and replace the roster spot. If you need to have him spend 10 on the DL every month as a result, so be it. He is doing no one besides the other team any good when he plays hurt.

His BABIP is .380 right now, which is 40-50 points higher than his career, which was probably a lucky season last year to be honest (and last year is basically his total career numbers). If we have the luxury of a nearly full platoon he faces mostly lefties and some righties off the bench when days off are needed or pop off the bench is needed, he's a .260-.270 hitter. If he's exposed to a lot of righties, he's a .240 hitter. When Thames comes back, he doesn't have to be. I've been skeptical of Aguilar but he killed lefties last year and continues to do so this year even more so. (.902 OPS last year, 1.032). Incredible as it may sound -- there is no reason for Braun to continue to supplant Aguilar in the 1B platoon once Thames returns. That's obviously subject to change again, but as of right now, can't see any reason not to play Aguilar at 1st vs. any lefty.

Because the offensive woes have nothing to with Braun, I suppose? Even though he's literally below everyone else on the team in oWAR except Sogard and Arcia? I wouldn't say they have nothing to do with Braun, just that his contributions (or lack thereof, I guess) have been overstated to this point. The triple slash & WAR numbers are ugly, but they are also devoid of context. Braun has the 2nd most RBI on the team. He has the best numbers on the team with men on base/RISP & the highest clutch rating on the team so far. His Win Probability Added of 0.40 is 5th on the team behind only Cain, Shaw, Yelich & Thames. While Braun has underperformed overall to this point, he has saved his hits for when they were most needed. I'm not suggesting he has some magical power to continue doing so into the future, but to cite him as a main reason for any perceived offensive woes seems unwarranted when you have guys like Sogard, Bandy, Arcia, Pina, Villar & even Domingo have negative WPAs (-2.72 combined) to accompany their underwhelming context free numbers. Seems fair, but also seems like a very luck oriented outcome and that concerns about his offensive production going forward seem very valuable. Has a couple of very huge 9th inning HR this year, not denying that, but I would guess it's a lot more circumstantial than something we should expect him to continue.

Concur. I'd rather try to get Greinke for a song and cover his ENTIRE salary than to get Archer. Goodness, please no.

I totally agree with this. Unfortunately I think collectively we are still in a little bit of denial over the player that Braun is now. You could see that much in the general pre-season prognosis for Braun of people here ("he's still the best hitter on the team when healthy", "he should replace Thames as the every day 1B", "he will be batting 3rd and playing every day when healthy"). And hey, to be fair, it's not just the fans, the organization has been in denial about it too. After all, he has indeed batted 3rd and started generally every day when healthy. It's a tough pill to swallow for a small market team to pay $20M a year for a high end bench bat, but trying to force him to be more and continuing to bat him 3rd like we're still in the midst of his glory years is only going to compound the problem. No one can make a case that he deserves to play over Yelich and Cain. I can't make a good case that he deserves to play over Santana, who is at least young and has upside. I can't even honestly make a very strong case at this very moment that he should unseat Aguilar as part of a platoon with Thames when Thames returns. The salary is what it is. Trying to get as much as we can out of him to get the most out of our money will not fix him.

I know our record is good and all and we're playing well but this is probably my biggest annoyance with this team. Would it kill us to be proactive with a DL move sometime and not always play with a short bench? It was quite costly yesterday. It's just aggravating because it's such a silly and avoidable thing. It feels like most other organizations have figured out how to use the 10 day DL to their advantage and we have not. It seems like we are so terrified of having a guy out for 10 days and have him be physically ready after 7 or 8 days that we would rather just play with a short roster the entire season. Unless you are talking about Mike Trout that is just silly. If Braun was a second year player with the numbers he has now he would be sent down to AAA right now to 'figure it out'. As soon as he was scratched the first day they should have jumped on the chance to clear him off the roster for someone else for 10 days and tried to get him right, not done everything in their power to avoid it.