At 86 wins now, the Brewers finishing 11-11 would get them to 97-65 which would be a franchise record.
For that not to be good enough for the division and first round bye, the Cubs would need to finish 17-5. While a team winning 17 out of 22 isn’t out of the realm of realistic baseball possibility, they haven’t really looked like a team that is capable of that kind of a run.