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adambr2

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Everything posted by adambr2

  1. adambr2
    They could have pulled this one out if they weren't bricking every single 3 this half.
  2. adambr2
    Boy, those were some careless possessions at the end with a shot to get back in it. Not that either of these last two losses was a bad one, but would have been nice to get 1 out of 2. Tough week probably drops them back out of the top 10.
  3. adambr2
    This only works if you're assuming that Ortiz and Hall are replacing replacement level players.
  4. adambr2
    Amazing to me how many people thought we were just going to get a king's ransom for one year of Burnes. That ship sailed a year or two ago.
  5. adambr2
    Suppose it's us up 14 in the 3rd, 4th and 2 at the 28. How confident are you that Anders is even connecting from 45-46 to give you the 3?
  6. adambr2
    Campbell may have said that, but I don't think he just blindly calls it aggressively every time with no regard to the opponent or situation. Wouldn't him kicking the FG before half be an example of that? Why does no one mention the other side of the coin there when critiquing him? Could easily argue that if Detroit gets into the endzone there and go up 28-7 at half instead of 24-7, they win, right? Fact of the matter is there are so many decisions in the NFL that are basically a coin flip as to which decision is correct and sometimes your decision will make you look good and sometimes it'll make you look stupid. So as long as the decisions have some basis in logic, whether I agree with the logic or not, I have a hard time second guessing them. You can almost write the article of the opposite critique if he goes for the FG on 4th and 2, Badgley misses wide right and the 49ers get the ball at the 35 and march right down and score 7. "With the Super Bowl within their grasp and facing a very manageable 4th and 2 in iffy field goal territory, Dan Campbell had a chance to seize the moment and give Detroit their first Super Bowl. Instead, he got away from what worked for the Lions all year and got them there. Coach Campbell went conservative in the moment and it backfired on him in a big way."
  7. adambr2
    From the box score the first one said 28 yard line if I'm not mistaken which would be 45 or 46. And the second 47 or 48 as you said. If your kicker is only a 50/50 proposition from 45+ that definitely needs to be weighed. That's basically the 4th down conversion odds.
  8. adambr2
    FG success rate drops pretty drastically once you start getting into the 40s. At 45-46 yards it is roughly 75.8% since 2010, or about 3 in 4. If if is truly 85-90% you are talking 35-40 yards and I'm probably in agreement on the 3 then. The extra kicker on failing the FG is also losing 7-8 yards in field position versus failing on 4th. In most cases I have a really hard time second guessing coaches if the percentages were probably played, or at least not clearly improperly played. Some of the situations in which coaches go for it now would have been highly critiqued in the 90s. It's good that they're not anymore, and it's good that they're able to make smart decisions that use the data that we've learned without the threat of losing their job from being second guessed because in any sport you can make a good decision and still get a bad result. My only issue with analytics is that I'm not sure it can weigh the value of momentum which is a hard phenomenon to properly value.
  9. adambr2
    But again, you don't have a guarantee of a kicker making a 45-46 yard FG. It's kind of like in baseball when people say "why don't they just bunt him to 3rd?", like it's a sure thing. Say what you will about Campbell but analytics support the position that over the course of the season his decisions have added more points than they've lost and he's been among the best in that area. Obviously things can be situational but there's no analytics to support that he made the wrong decisions last night. The only time I thought he went completely unreasonably rogue this year is not kicking the XP after the penalty in Dallas.
  10. adambr2
    A 45-46 yard FG is not a "gimmee", and I'm surprised that anyone who had Anders Carlson as his kicker this year would suggest that. If Reynolds just catches the pass this isn't even being second guessed. You can't just "take" 3 points. Your kicker has to earn them for you. If it was as easy as just adding 3 points to the scoreboard it would probably change these decisions.
  11. adambr2
    I thought the only time Campbell absolutely needed to just take points was right before the half to go up 17. And he did. Other than that...going for 4th and shorts in otherwise a long FG range situation is hard for me to second guess.
  12. adambr2
    Did anyone ever hear any explanation as to why there was no intentional grounding called on the play or two before the Kittle TD? Purdy was clearly in the pocket, and there was absolutely NO 49er anywhere close.
  13. adambr2
    If he makes the FG it changes that last drive entirely. We're playing for a FG attempt being WORST case scenario in that case and aren't in desperation mode as much. Good chance Love never even makes that throw, good chance we run the ball more with multiple timeouts. For sure there's a lot of plays that could have still turned the game in our favor, but it's tough defending Anders.
  14. adambr2
    The black lining in this little mini run we made was that it looks like MLF is going to use it to justify extending Joe Barry, which is sickening. So get ready for another talented defense which is also ranked 20 something in most defensive categories.
  15. adambr2
    I think a little bit of the elephant in the room in Philly is that Jalen Hurts just probably isn't the world class QB that the Eagles thought they had. Not that he is to blame solely for the Eagles' collapse obviously. I tend to flow more toward the pessimistic side but on this playoff loss I'm a little more willing to chalk it up to the youth and the 49ers playing with house money and feel like -- we should be back. We were playing with house money on this one. In Rodgers' later years we had no such excuses for our playoff losses. But it is true that each opportunity is unique and each time you don't get it done is an opportunity lost. Maybe we're better next year, but maybe we run into this year's version of ourselves NEXT year and they finish the job. Like we did in '10-'11 and the Giants did the following season. Sometimes it isn't the best, but the hottest team, and we were that team this year and had a chance for something special and came up short. I still remember after the Panthers lost the Super Bowl and most people said about Cam Newton, "he'll be back for sure." It just doesn't always work out that way. -
  16. adambr2
    If we would have won this game I think we were steamrolling to a Super Bowl. And I think that would have been the general sentiment. No way is a Packer team that is coming off of road wins in Dallas and San Francisco in any way afraid of Detroit or Tampa Bay.
  17. adambr2
    - Defensively, just did not do enough, particularly on the last drive, to disrupt Purdy. The pass rush was close numerous times throughout the game, but this was a game where you just have to get home on the QB. - Zach Tom's injury definitely correlated to Jordan Love becoming more uncomfortable and erratic later on in the game. That one hurt. O-line depth still an offseason priority. - I hope they can keep Aaron Jones around for another year or two, it's constantly obvious how much he brings to the offense. - When Anders missed the kick, I think 90% of Packer nation could smell the wind blowing 24-21. Unfortunately it's been really 10-15 years of playoff heartbreakers. - On the plus side, this team in the last couple months has beaten Detroit, beaten Kansas City, beaten Dallas, and went toe to toe with the 49ers, improving every step along the way and giving a lot of hope for the future. It was a fun ride and it could have been bigger, but this team should be in a Super Bowl within 2 years. But they have to actually get it done in crunch time, on the field. Unfortunately in this one their youth was obvious in crunch time. Can only hope these will be valuable learning experiences that help them not come up short next time.
  18. adambr2
    The problem with the Packers approach to roster building (and don't get me wrong, most of their approaches are very good), is that they treat every position like a damn developmental spot. Kicker is NOT that position. It's ok to get rid of a kicker who can't make kicks, because there's no shortage of next men up. Not every single position on your roster is worth being patient and taking your lumps at in hopes of a payoff in a couple years. It's like they're afraid to lose out on the next Justin Tucker.
  19. adambr2
    Funny how we went into this season turning the page....and the more things change, the more they seem to stay the same.
  20. adambr2
    I also had zero faith in Anders connecting from 41. I was hoping to get 5 or 6 to justify going for it because that's how badly I didn't want to see an Anders Carlson FG attempt.
  21. adambr2
    I'm trying not to let it define him or read too much into it but Love absolutely choked in the 4th. I can't think of one good throw he made in the final quarter trying to put the game away. He was wildly missing on 3rd down check downs that were honestly big plays.
  22. adambr2
    Packers managed to choke a game away against a HC that has made a living off not being able to win close late games.
  23. adambr2
    They're kids and they choked it away. Very unfortunate. I hope the 49ers get their teeth kicked in by whoever they play next week.
  24. adambr2
    Our kicker is absolute garbage.
  25. adambr2
    Love choked, Anders choked. The defense choked. The Packers choked. Good luck next year. Lot to look forward to.
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