ClosetBrewerFan

I completely agree. Thanks to Brian, the moderators, and to all of you that have contributed to this site. You have made it a great place to talk Brewers baseball. I've been following the Brewers for 40 years and I love to follow the young prospects coming up through the minors. This place allows me to do that and to talk to others with similar interests. I don't know anyone in person that can get geeky like me talking about stats of some low A minors prospect that falls in my 50-75 spot on my prospect list. Hence my username. Thanks again Brian!

Huh? Are you posting in the right thread / decade?

Thank you for the honest response. Obviously this news was a shock to us so the initial mixed reactions you are getting are a reflection of that. I can honestly say I have very little I would change about this site. The moderators do a great job of keeping the discussion respectful. If I had one wish it would be a wiki like place for identifying prospects and the latest news on them. Its always a challenge to find out info about a prospect I am unfamiliar with. What types of pitches does he throw, how hard does he throw, what positions does he play and can he field them competently, what do the scouts think... sort of a one stop shop on each prospect. That would be too hard for one person to create but would not be too hard if a community built and maintained it. Just a future wish list item. (Edit. Not unlike what Mass is doing with his birthday status thread. I dont know how he has time for that but literally that is the foundation for what I am talking about - just unfair for him to try to maintain it) I spent some time on the twins talk forum and I'll be very happy if that is what your plans are for this site. Discourse is civil, simple forum to follow and some splashy front page stuff for news.

Welcome Brock! I'm sure you will quickly find that this forum has a nice mix of new posters and those that have been around from the start and generally do a great job of having reasonable debate and conversation. I've been checking in on this site daily for a very long time. Heck, I remember when this site was called Brewerfan.com over 20 years ago. I'll share my concern about excessive ads. Understand that you can run this the way you want but there are not a huge number of people that go on this site so it would be a shame to lose anyone. I have very little patience for ads though and its one of the main reasons why I continue to use this site. It will be nice to see some writers get a little compensation for what they do. There are a number of posters that provide insight and analysis that deserves to be paid. I hope they take you up on their offer to be contributing writers. Can I ask what made you want to buy this site? Quite frankly, I did not think there would be much value in it. Maybe you see a business here that I dont. Only real question I have left is how am I going to get the latest Shea Vucinich news now?

That tweet also mentioned the brewers hired former Pirate 3b/1B Pedro Alvarez as a special assistant. My first thought was whether this is the guy who clubbed a racing sausage. It wasn't (Randall Simon). That would have been an interesting hire otherwise.

I like the fangraphs rankings. They do a good job balancing performance and potential. I think Baseball America weighs potential too high as they often will list teenagers in the top 10 even before they have played pro ball. This results in too much turnover from year to year. There are a couple of factual errors in fangraphs "Other prospects of note" section. Strzelecki is listed as having dominated AAA. He primarily played in AA, with only 5 IP at AAA. I doubt he makes this list if they realized it was a 26 old in AA that did the dominating. Not sure I would call a 1.26 WHIP dominating either. Jesus Chirinos is listed as a C, and I dont think the Brewers see him in that position anymore. He did play a little of catcher in 2019 but none last year, splitting time between 1B/DH. He was also downgraded because he has "... spent four years in rookie ball — which Chirinos has if you count a lost 2020". This in incorrect, he spent 2019 and 2021 in rookie ball (ages 17 and 19) and 2018 in DSL. That's a pretty normal progression for a latin teenage signing (COVID notwithstanding), so I dont know what they are saying. I like Chirinos as we dont have a lot of 1B prospects so he rates relatively high on my prospect list (in the 40s). He is just so far away and is Rule 5 eligible already. These are minor quibbles but are easy to check by simply looking at their stat lines. Kinda hard to complain too much over a free list. Overall, I like fangraphs prospect lists the most of all the online reviews. The Cam Robinson and Hobie Harris mentions are cool. I did not realize Hobie threw that hard. And I am excited about Cornielle and the Edwin Jimenez.

Put me down for #4. Maybe I'm a pessimist but I have full confidence in the owners and players to do the wrong thing.

Here are the 2019 Brewer Pitcher ZiPS projections vs. actuals. Average ERA+ deviation is 29 and average WAR is 1.5, so ERA+ is +/- 15 points and WAR is +/- 1.8 points on average. Note how bullish ZiPS was on Peralta and not on Woodruff. Much more variance than with the hitters and greater outliers as well. And of course Burnes was ridiculously bad that year. Makes sense considering the difficulty it is to predict how pitchers will perform. [pre]2019 Pre-Season ZiPS Projections (Source Fangraphs) 2019 Actuals Deviations Player TBF K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP ERA+ ERA- FIP WAR TBF ERA+ WAR ERA+ WAR Freddy Peralta 575 12.1 5.1 1.2 0.286 109 91 4.09 2.2 382 84 -0.8 25 3.0 Zach Davies 630 6.7 2.8 1.1 0.297 103 97 4.33 2.1 672 125 2.6 22 0.5 Corbin Burnes 581 8.7 3.3 1.1 0.293 108 92 4.11 2.1 235 51 -2.2 57 4.3 Jhoulys Chacin 724 7.3 3.6 1.1 0.284 98 102 4.55 2.0 403 77 -0.6 21 2.6 Gio Gonzalez 692 7.9 3.9 1.1 0.293 97 103 4.36 1.8 366 127 2.0 30 0.2 Josh Hader 301 15.3 4.3 1.2 0.281 149 67 3.07 1.6 289 170 2.7 21 1.1 Jimmy Nelson 532 7.9 3.4 1.2 0.299 99 101 4.46 1.5 105 65 -0.5 34 2.0 B. Woodruff 511 8.6 3.6 1.1 0.298 101 99 4.14 1.5 493 123 3.0 22 1.5 Chase Anderson 609 7.3 3.2 1.7 0.278 95 105 5.12 1.4 592 106 1.8 11 0.4 Alex Claudio 315 5.8 1.8 0.6 0.292 132 76 3.43 1.2 267 110 0.6 22 0.6 Junior Guerra 518 8.1 3.9 1.4 0.284 95 105 4.7 1.2 344 126 1.4 31 0.2 Jeremy Jeffress 280 9.2 3.5 0.7 0.291 136 73 3.35 1.2 225 89 -0.4 47 1.6 Adrian Houser 397 7.1 3.8 1.6 0.304 81 123 5.38 0.1 462 120 1.9 39 1.8[/pre]

I did a very simple analysis of ZiPS projections to see how accurate it is. I used the brewers 2019 data as i wanted to avoid 2020 and the impact that may have had on 2021 projections. I compared both WAR and OPS+ projections vs actuals. Overall it was not too bad. On average, the WAR deviated by 1.2 points and OPS+ by 21 points. If you assume the variance is centered in the middle, WAR was accurate, on average, by +/- 0.6 and OPS+ by +/- 10. That seems pretty reasonable to me for a projection. Note: This doesn't mean that there will not be huge misses by these projections. Shaw and Aguilar were huge disappointments that year. Yelich and Hiura overperformed their projections. But some of these were surprisingly dead on (Braun, Moose, Thames). I will post the pitchers WAR and ERA+ projections to actuals for the Brewers as well. Keep in mind this was a very small sample so my averages may not hold up over a larger sample. [pre]2019 Pre-Season ZiPS Projections (Source Fangraphs) 2019 Actuals Deviations Player PA BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR PA OPS+ WAR OPS+ WAR C. Yelich 673 0.298 0.379 0.522 136 0.224 0.352 7.8 3 5.2 580 179 7.0 43 1.8 Lorenzo Cain 568 0.287 0.359 0.409 104 0.123 0.333 5.9 10 3.8 623 81 2.6 23 1.2 Yasmani Grandal 475 0.238 0.349 0.462 113 0.223 0.283 5.6 2 3.2 632 119 2.4 6 0.8 Travis Shaw 560 0.254 0.34 0.472 113 0.219 0.286 5.9 2 3.2 270 45 -1.5 68 4.7 Mike Moustakas 580 0.267 0.324 0.506 116 0.239 0.271 6 0 3.2 584 114 2.6 2 0.6 Jesus Aguilar 526 0.258 0.333 0.492 115 0.234 0.303 6 4 2.4 369 87 -0.4 28 2.8 Ryan Braun 440 0.269 0.332 0.470 110 0.201 0.303 5.8 0 1.5 508 116 1.7 6 0.2 Manny Pina 334 0.247 0.303 0.385 81 0.138 0.289 4.3 5 1.3 179 86 0.8 5 0.5 Eric Thames 427 0.229 0.333 0.485 114 0.256 0.296 5.8 -4 1.2 459 117 1.3 3 0.1 Keston Hiura 534 0.259 0.315 0.409 90 0.151 0.325 4.5 -2 1.0 348 138 1.9 48 0.9 Ben Gamel 530 0.267 0.331 0.413 96 0.146 0.329 5.1 -2 0.9 356 85 0.7 11 0.2 C. Spangenberg 461 0.246 0.306 0.406 87 0.16 0.338 4.6 -4 0.7 102 64 0.6 23 0.1 Orlando Arcia 553 0.247 0.294 0.360 73 0.113 0.303 3.8 2 0.6 546 64 -0.8 9 1.4 Hernan Perez 415 0.255 0.286 0.401 80 0.145 0.301 4.3 0 0.6 246 64 -0.5 16 1.1 Trent Grisham 487 0.200 0.308 0.316 67 0.116 0.275 3.4 -3 -0.9 183 90 0.6 23 1.5[/pre]

Why not just use basic stats to get the basis to judge from if accuracy isn't relevant? I get that defining accuracy is hard, not to mention subjective. One of the articles I posted outlines the difficulty. Which begs the question. Why should we simply believe it's true if we haven't, or can't, measure it? As far as I can tell there is a lot of articles explaining why some of these in-depth predictors are better, but nothing showing they actually are better. If one claim's it's more accurate than something else, then it stands to reason it was shown to actually be so. But I can't find anything showing it is. Again, maybe I missed it since I'm not as big on that sort of thing. If anyone can point me to something actually showing it's better that would be helpful. I'm not talking about explanations of why it should be. I've found plenty of that. I'm also appreciative of posters here explaining why they like them. But that is not the same as SHOWING its superiority. Given how long these projection systems have been around it seems like a major oversight not to show it really is better. If these predictions were "accurate", I'm sure someone would be boasting about it. I would think someone like Stearns would expect to see proof if he was going to rely on a projection. And maybe the team's proprietary calculations are more accurate than what we are seeing for free. I get that there are a lot of variables that make determining accuracy "hard" but that's what these guys get paid for. You just pick a stat to use and then compare your projections to actual. Use WAR for example. Its not perfect but none of these are. One could easily calculate that a particular projection is on average +/- X% from actual. Accuracy is however you define it. Let's say it calculates out to +/-10% on average. That would mean if you project the player to have 3 WAR, your projection should fall within 2.7 to 3.3 WAR. I'd call that accurate enough for me. Now if it is actually +/-50% then I would not rely on those numbers all that much (1.5 to 4.5 is too wide a range for me). These mathmagicians can even calculate a confidence level on the accuracy. All they can do is publish what their accuracy level is and then we could determine if that is satisfactory enough. Since they dont, and there seems to me no papers even discussing this, my guess the accuracy is closer to 50% than it is 10%.

I know little about Almonte and didnt look up his stats before my last post. He is another option for a 5th OF. 808 OPS vs RH last year as a switch hitter would look great if he could repeat that. Career of 713 OPS vs RH over 9 years. Draws a lot of walks but has a low BA and little pop. He will be 33 next June so I am not expecting much. Amazing this guy has hung around for so long. Does anyone know about his defense? Looks like he can play all three OF spots.

Dahl had a 918 OPS at Coors field. His OPS at Miller Park (am fam) is 718 in 29 PA for those who put stock in that sort of thing. I've always been a big fan of Dahl but am hoping we find a better alternative for a 5th OF before Spring. He would be a great option in AAA next year if injuries occur. I just think there is too much risk to count on him.

I like this trade. Makes the team better next year. Sure, they give up some prospects but they are trading from depth. We have Turang and Zamora with some younger players behind them. Getting rid of JBJ drove the prospect cost as he had negative value. Renfroe defense should not be overlooked. He has a great throwing arm and good range. He has played CF before though probably less likely now. He crushes lefties but does sometime struggle against RH. It would not surprise me if the Brewers picked up a LH OF to give Renfroe a day off against a tough RH. I like Brian Goodwin. He had over an 800 OPS against RH and would be a nice bench bat.

Former Brewer Jorge Lopez was tendered by the Orioles and agreed to $1.5M. How bad is the O's pitching that they decided to keep a guy who has had three straight years of ERA over 6. Good for him to get the payday. He seems like a candidate who would be lucky to get a minor league contract with a NRI.

Why would the Braves lock up a 40 man spot for 2 years and $3M for Arcia. Did they think he could not be had on a minor league contract?

That trade for Curtiss sure did not work out for us. They gave up Peyton Henry for 4.1 innings of 12.46 ERA. Ouch. Curtiss was not eligible for free agency until 2026 and not arby eligible until 2023 so a bit surprised at this. Granted an injured player like him may never return so looks like they just wanted to cut their losses. FWIW, Peyton hit sub 700 OPS for Miami's AAA team and enjoyed a cup of coffee with the big league club. He currently sits at #29 on their top prospect list. He didn't exactly set the world on fire.

The Brewers are providing very little to talk about other than this, so I'll keep this thread going. Not that I want to make a big deal out of this because I agree this is nothing to get worked up over. Baseball Prospectus says Sullivan is a bottom of the barrel pitch framer. This data is from 2018 and 2019 but he was near the bottom both years. https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=4199650 It seems he may have improved somewhat in 2021 as his "framing runs" was 1.2 whereas it had been negative for the rest of his career. Fry had a Framing Runs of 1.0 combined between AA/AAA in as many chances. I have no idea how reliable this stat is, but have found very little on either of these as far as defensive ability. Fry was listed as the Brewers 41st prospect last year by Fangraphs and they rated him with a 40/45 fielding and 50 throw as a catcher. So I don't think it is accurate to say Fry is bad defensively and there is no proof I could find that Sullivan is better at defense than Fry. Brett appears to be bat first "utility" type C/OF/maybe 1b/3b ... basically the same guy David Fry is. His main value to the team is he is lefthanded, has options left, and owns a catchers mask. Fry is RH so maybe that was why they signed him. Or maybe the Brewers think they can keep both Sullivan and Fry this way by hoping Fry does not get selected in the Rule 5. They could have just protected Fry from the Rule 5 draft instead of signing Sullivan but obviously they know more than me. I'll trust the Brewers on this one. What do I know? I'm ranting about which 3rd catcher they should have on the 40 man roster. Man, I'm dying for some real Brewers news this offseason .

I think David Fry's numbers are better. He has less experience at AAA but he has hit better in the minors than Sullivan. Not a big deal and it is always good to have catching depth. Maybe they just wanted a LH bat to replace Narvaez if he gets hurt.

Mejia looks like a good gamble assuming they dont give up much. Considering he was DFAd, I assume they did not. As recently as 2019, he was listed as Cleveland's #16th prospect per MLB where he was successful as a starting pitcher. He had a very poor 2021 at both AAA and ML, but he was clearly rushed. He skipped over AA this year. He may need to return to relief pitching where his 93mph sinker may get a few more ticks up. He also has a decent ground ball rate so he may play well in Amfam.

With 5 open spots on the 40 man roster, I would have thought they would at least protect Howell. You would think a speedy, 23 year old, versatile utility player with pop would likely be taken in the rule 5 draft. Not the end of the world but seems to be a head scratcher to me. Hopefully, they use these spots to either claim waived players or get their choice in some low cost FA by offering a major league contract when other teams rosters are full.

This is exactly the type of trade the Brewers should be making. Grab a player from a team with a roster crunch. I know people on this site were hoping for a trade for this guy a year or two ago. This is worth the risk to see if he can rebound next year. The cost is another hard throwing RP to Tampa. Riefert looked good last year except for the walks. His control will hold him back if he cannot fix that. I sure wish Stearns would stop trading pitching though. We are in serious short supply in the minors with the past few trades and the focus on hitting in the draft and international signings. Edit: When I hear his name, I keep thinking about Mark Brouhard https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/brouhma01.shtml Another guy I am going to have to look up each time to see how his name is spelled. Let's hope Brosseau has a better Brewers career.

I did not see it noted anywhere but the Brewers website shows that john curtiss, mark mathias, angel perdomo and justin topa all have been re-instated from the 60 day IL and are now on the 40 man roster. All four remain with the club (...for now ) Roster is at 35

Maile has a career OPS of .568 over 691 PA in the majors. His 30 Ab for the Brewers was an aberration and the Brewers know it. He had a .668 OPS for AAA this year. His most valuable trait this year was he had an option left. That gave the Brewers a good defensive catcher that they could option as needed if injuries occur. He no longer has an option and is arby eligible so he no longer has much value. There are other Catchers out there that the Brewers can sign either via major league or minor league contract. In fact since they have roster space room they will likely get their choice of backups to sign a major league contract if they want to early this offseason.

The Brewers have until November 7th to reinstate the four players from the 60 day dl. All four are on the bubble but since they have the room I assume all will be kept for now. Curtiss/Topa will likely get put back on the 60 day as soon as they are allowed to in the spring.

I'd like to see the Brewers bring back Westbrook, Dahl, and Luna next year. I'm surprised Westbrook never got a chance in the majors last year as he looked good all year and is versatile. Dahl will shop around for the best opportunity. Luna may give us the hometown discount and is the likeliest of the three to resign. Otero is another possible name.