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olliegjw

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Everything posted by olliegjw

  1. olliegjw
    Why are K/9 rates so important for pitchers, but hitters K rates aren't very important to SABR people?
  2. olliegjw
    That is why they get into rundowns if it is going to be close. The runner going to 3rd can see the other runner, and the play in front of them.
  3. olliegjw
    Didn't a similar thing happen in the Brewer game yesterday? Astros had 1st and 2nd, 2 out. Base hit to left, runner from 1st stays at 2nd as runner gets thrown out at home. Had the runner continued to 3rd, would the Brewers have taken the near guaranteed out at 3rd, or let the throw go through to stop the run from scoring? Also, to a previous post, the catcher calls out all cuts and relays from the outfield on throws that are going home.
  4. olliegjw
    I would think that we'd have to compare five run expectancies: 1. Runner on 2nd, nobody out, 1 run in. 2. Runner on 2nd, one out, nobody in. 3. Nobody on, one out, 1 run in. 4. Runner on 3rd, one out, nobody in. 5. Runner on 3rd, none out, 1 run in. You would have to compare the run values of 1 and 2, versus 3-5. It also matters on how likely the guy at the plate would have been out. I am guessing he had about a 60% chance of being safe. It would have been a lot less, had the throw from the outfield gone towards home, instead of 3rd.
  5. olliegjw
    Well, good thing they aren't facing Peavy again. He never makes an offense look bad.
  6. olliegjw
    I am very much enjoying the Brewers season. I just feel sorry for those that can't sit back and enjoy it, which appears to many here. Thousands of posts in the vent thread and only a couple hundred here. The manager should be fired, the bullpen sucks, the manager should be fired, the bench sucks, the manager should be fired, the trainer should be fired, the manager should be fired. I'm just gonna sit back and enjoy the victories that keep piling up.
  7. olliegjw
    There is a big difference between Baker running first and second year young studs out for that many pitches consistently versus Yost having an 8 year veteran throw 130 pitches in one start. Not to mention, Wood, Prior, et al got injured in the year's after Baker abused them, not in the 1st or 2nd year. CC won't be on the team next year, so I have no problem stretching him out a bit, especially with extra days off coming up.
  8. olliegjw
    What if it were released that the medical staff had cleared Braun to play, but Yost kept him on the bench anyways? And the reason for the benching was "it just does not look right when he swings". This board would be in an uproar, and ask for Yost's firing on the spot. Oh wait, that happens anyways. Guess the guy just can't win.
  9. olliegjw
    If some people blamed it on him being overweight/out of shape, you get mad if you saw him eating a cheeseburger? The playoffs last year, were a lot like his first start with the Brewers. His velocity and movement were there, just not the normal precision. Probably due to too much andrenaline versus being tired.
  10. olliegjw
    The more success the Brewers have, the more season ticket packages will be sold. This will leave fewer seats for the "bandwagon" fans, and should lead to more baseball educated, and enjoyable crowds.
  11. olliegjw
    Nobody was complaining when Hart hit a homer on a 3-0 pitch.
  12. olliegjw
    Ryan Rohlinger, a West Bend native, was called up by the Giants, and is starting at 3B for them today.
  13. olliegjw
    20 games over .500 sounds really nice.
  14. olliegjw
    Since the Cubs series, Weeks has blown 7 double plays. Hardy has also blown at least 3 that I can think of.
  15. olliegjw
    Unless, I am missing something it is 8% for one game. There is a 54% percent chance the Brewers would win the odd game, and there is a 46% chance the Cubs would lose the odd game. Over 162 games, the 54% occurance (Brewers winning) would happen 87.48 times (162 * 54%), while the Cubs would lose 74.52 times (162 * 46%). That is a 12.96 game difference over 162 games.
  16. olliegjw
    I was using your number of 54% chance of winning. 54% of winning the extra game versus 46% chance of the other team losing a game. That is an 8% difference. Obviously, that would change depending on opponents, but the idea is still the same. A tenth of a win over 162 games is 16 games in the standings. I wouldn't exactly call that trivial.
  17. olliegjw
    I would look at 8% as a rather significant difference, in baseball. That is like the difference between a .300 hitter and a .220 hitter. While I agree with your premise that the loss column difference is overrated, by some, it is not a trivial difference that you seem to imply.
  18. olliegjw
    There is no chance he comes back as a starter, even if he has the arm strength to do it. There is no way they will let him swing a bat and run the bases. Those could be much more stressful on the knee than the pitching.
  19. olliegjw
    If every Brewer hitter struck out on 10 pitches, their starter would not get out of the 4th inning!!!
  20. olliegjw
    There were 2 outs when Blum hit the home run to make it 8-4. It is not unusual to get one out on one pitch, hence the "one pitch away" arguement.
  21. olliegjw
    When his team doesn't have as much talent as other teams, that is what he needs to do.
  22. olliegjw
    Let's say the Brewers play the Cubs on opening day in Miller Park. For argument's sake, the Brewers have a 52% chance to win according to projections. The Brewers win that game, and their next nine games. The Cubs lose their first 10. Game 11 is in Miller Park with the same teams, same pitchers, same lineups, same umpires, etc. Would the Brewers still be at 52% chance to win? I tend to think they would be slightly better favorites for that second game.
  23. olliegjw
    I strongly disagree with this premise. Games are not played in a vaccuum without emotion. Confidence plays a huge part in baseball. A team that has won 9 in a row has a much better chance of winning that 10th game, than the same team that has lost 5 in a row.
  24. olliegjw
    This thread is messing with the karma gods. DELETE IT NOW!!!
  25. olliegjw
    Can't really complain since the Cubs play late in AZ tonight, and have to travel to Wrigley for a game tomorrow.
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