I would think that we'd have to compare five run expectancies: 1. Runner on 2nd, nobody out, 1 run in. 2. Runner on 2nd, one out, nobody in. 3. Nobody on, one out, 1 run in. 4. Runner on 3rd, one out, nobody in. 5. Runner on 3rd, none out, 1 run in. You would have to compare the run values of 1 and 2, versus 3-5. It also matters on how likely the guy at the plate would have been out. I am guessing he had about a 60% chance of being safe. It would have been a lot less, had the throw from the outfield gone towards home, instead of 3rd.