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rluzinski

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Everything posted by rluzinski

  1. rluzinski
    Plan B: STL PLEASE LOSE Even odds on the Cardinals game today...
  2. rluzinski
    Yers, too bad we didn't get to see Livan there. Axford has had a terrible year but he's had enough success in his career to still be above most guys in the Brewers' current bullpen.
  3. rluzinski
    Pirates fans have to be so disappointed. I feel bad for them.
  4. rluzinski
    No it isn't. The talent level in AAA is higher than AA. Yes there are more prospects in AA but that is because AAA also has MLB fringe players while AA doesn't and AA is where prospects loose their prospect status. I'm not sure I agree with this. AA is where you put your talent, AAA is where you put your low upside depth most of the time. I don't have the minor league adjustments in front of but pretty sure AAA has higher overall talent. Many AA players will never be as good as the AAAA guys that make up much of AAA.
  5. rluzinski
    I did not mean to suggest that no manager can have a positive influence on individual and team performance through motivation and leadership. I am simply not going to assume that all managers can. Nor am I going to assume that whatever influence they have is strong enough to find any significant correlation between it and team success. I doubt it is, so we are left to simply speculate. My base assumption is that professional athletes are largely motivated by self interest and a sprinkling of narcissism. Even if they are vets with guaranteed contracts, they want to continue excelling at that they've defined themselves by. They are also trying to win another big contract, even if they already have "more money than they know what to do with." (I've always found the argument that most people stop being motivated by money after acquiring a large amount, as most evidence suggests the exact opposite.)
  6. rluzinski
    How come in professional baseball we give the manager so much credit for keeping the players motivated? This isn't little league, where you have to buy them ice cream after practice. This isn't high school football, where some kid who will never play organized football again needs a pep talk from the coach in order to willingly smash his undersized body into a superior athlete. Most of these guys want to perform well, so they continue making hundreds of thousands, if not millions of dollars. 99% of them care about money first, team success second and I wouldn't expect anything more from anyone in this world. I don't give RR any credit for the players not quitting since I wouldn't expect them to. I can't be the only one.
  7. rluzinski
    I think there is a very weak correlation between manager performance and team performance, so I will never use a team's record as a basis for either praise or scorn of a manager. RR gets paid about as much as a utility infielder because that is what he is worth to the Brewers.
  8. rluzinski
    I understand but the question I was trying to answer was, "How many games should the Brewers have won this year?", not "How many games would the Brewers would have won with an average bullpen?" You need to also consider the games the Brewers "stole" to answer the former. And as I said in an earlier post, 3-4 games sounds reasonable when you consider everything. I second the notion that teams should play.... the games.
  9. rluzinski
    I knew exactly what he was referring to and I don't mean to suggest pythag is the end all, be all. But I can't agree that a team that has a +41 run differential should be 18 games over .500. It just doesn't feel honest. Again, you can't just look at the unlucky stuff when considering the "shoulda's", or every team should have won at at least 5 more games every year. The Brewers bullpen has performed terribly in high leverage situations but they've apparently gotten some good fortune as well, considering their current record and modest score differential. No one is "wrong" here but 3-4 wins seems like an honest number.
  10. rluzinski
    The Brewers should be 82-64? The Brewers have under performed but let's not get carried away. It's easy to remember all the games they "should" have won but you can't forget about the ones they stole themselves. Their run differential on the year is +41, which works out to a Pythagorean record of 77-69 (3 more wins).
  11. rluzinski
    A 6-4 road trip means a 4-2 home stand still only gets them 84 wins. Not a very good chance 84 wins gets you even a share of the 2nd wildcard spot. Without running the numbers, I have to believe a 7-3 or better road trip is more likely than a 5-1 or better home stand.
  12. rluzinski
    If the Brewers need to sweep two teams in a row to make 6-4 on the road trip acceptable, they obviously need to go 7-3. Even if you give the Brewers a 65% chance of winning each of those last 6 games, that's an 8% chance of a double sweep. I don't see how 6-4 gives the Brewers any reasonable chance. And the loss column is the only thing that matters when you are only concerned with being mathematically eliminated. I am currently concerned about coming up with a reasonable scenario that could get the Brewers into the one game playoff, not some virtually impossible one. Win today, 7-3 road trip, 5-1 home trip is still only 86 wins. At best, I would think that would earn the Brewers a tie of the 2nd wildcard spot, effectively making the Brewers need to play too play-in games to get to the real playoffs.
  13. rluzinski
    They've only lost 2 home games since August 19th (9-2) and I attended those two losses... I'm sure the other 9 games were just fantastic, though. Brewers basically need to win these next two and have the Dodgers win 1 or 2 against the Cardinals.
  14. rluzinski
    Hey look, a contact play....
  15. rluzinski
    Last game I attended was Wolf's last start, when they lost 8-0. It left such a bad taste in my mouth that I haven't attemded a game until today. Opps! At least it is early and they have a couple on.....
  16. rluzinski
    With what I know now and assuming the Brewers win 2 of 3 against the Mets, 7-3. If the Dodgers can't win 2 of the next 3 though, would almost have to be 9-1.
  17. rluzinski
    Great, a another opponent lefty gets to face Ishikawa. And anyone who wants to offer up a one game sample as evidence for why I shouldn't worry about it... please don't.
  18. rluzinski
    I believe you have it backwards. Just about any pitcher who wants to be allowed to pitch 150 innings in one season in the majors is going to need to be able to put up 1 WAR over that time. If you are a back of the rotation starter who has an ERA of 5.5 over 100 innings, you are probably getting yanked. That's why you have to be careful when you specify a minimum IP/PA. Playing time correlates with performance.
  19. rluzinski
    Saw Melvin and Ash grabbing their good luck lunch at Panda Express today, so we should be all good! Dodgers need to beat the crap out of the Cardinals this weekend. Brewers need them to win at least 2.
  20. rluzinski
    Because the playoffs have better hitters in general? If that's true, you are suggesting that lower velocity pitchers have a greater spread than higher ones. Meaning, if you take two 4.0 ERA pitchers, the one with lower velocity will perform better against crappier hitters than the higher velocity ones. I have seen no evidence of that and it really doesn't even pass the smell test, does it?
  21. rluzinski
    I don't believe that is true. We use .500 as a generic expectation for all teams only because it is convenient. Good teams score more runs and/or give up less runs than the average team. I don't believe their distribution of runs scored/game is any different than anyone else, however. And I believe Ennder's point was that the low number of innings a reliever typically pitches makes it difficult to estimate how well we should expect them to perform going forward. Therefore, one must be careful not to overpay for a reliever based on an estimate with a low confidence. He was not suggesting that relief performance is less important.
  22. rluzinski
    The bullpen was performing way worse than expected. Without anything changing, we would have expected them to start performing better.
  23. rluzinski
    Exactly. Every team tries to win 162 games. That's all they have to focus on.
  24. rluzinski
    Just bought 3 tickets for Friday on Stubhub. Again, I realize that the Brewers only have about a 1 in 20 shot of making the playoffs but that it good enough for me.
  25. rluzinski
    That almost sounds like you might be excited I've never stopped watching, unlike most of my friends. I just like good baseball.
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