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rluzinski

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Everything posted by rluzinski

  1. rluzinski
    I just can't see two prospects, no matter how good, being worth more than a post season appearance for a franchise. Think of the revenue this will generate this team for this year and at least next year. Instead of season ticket sales possibly going down, there will certainly be going up, now.
  2. rluzinski
    Russ, you may want to blur out the upc codes. Didn't think about that. Ouch. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif Thanks. I see a mod already deleted that post.
  3. rluzinski
    "why do most seem to think that Soup can't build on his last start?" I have no idea if you could build on it but I don't really look at it that way. Over the entire season, he wasn't very good, so one game personally doesn't make me feel any better about him. It doesn't matter if he can emotionally handle the pressure if he doesn't have the physical skills. Just my 2 cents.
  4. rluzinski
    awesome rluzinski.....im jealous It still hasn't hit me yet that those tickets will actually get me into a playoff game that the Brewers are competing in. My tickets from last year didn't end up having very much value. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/frown.gif
  5. rluzinski
    Even with Sheets' injury, Suppan might be the Brewer's 5th best starter. Gallardo will be rested up, so you have to go with him game 1, IMO. Pencil McClung to relieve him and give 2-3 innings. After that, the decisions get A LOT tougher. I don't like the thought of pitching CC on 3 days rest yet again, since the average starter just isn't as good doing it. Sabathia hasn't looked like the average starter while doing it, though, so I think I'd roll the dice and give him game 2. Bush game 3. Do you bring Gallardo back on 3 days rest for game 4? I think that would be irresponsible personally. I'd be fine with Johnny Wholestaff, myself. That leaves CC and even Gallardo available game 5, if needed. So: Game 1: Gallardo Game 2: Sabathia Game 3: Bush Game 4: Johnny Wholestaff Game 5: Sabathia/Gallardo If you can get it done in 4 games, you have Sabathia and Gallardo fully rested and ready to go for the next round.
  6. rluzinski
    "The Book Blog" every day.
  7. rluzinski
    You always hear all the stuff from 1982 but I was 6 years old, so it might have been 1882 for me. Hearing Bob's call and knowing that I might be hearing that many more times in my life, makes me feel like I am finally getting MY OWN Brewers memories. Thanks for the link of that call. I'll have to tuck that away for safe keeping.
  8. rluzinski
    http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a345/rluzinski/brewers%20clinch/IMG_0914.jpg
  9. rluzinski
    The Brewers gambled that the extra wins CC would give them would be the difference between making or not making it. They were certainly right and by making it, they have made a hell of a lot of money for the franchise. The franchise needed to erase that postseason drought and it's been destroyed. And as for my 2-3 win estimate, it's like people want me to apologize for not predicting that Sabathia would have a 1.65 ERA with the Crew. There's a reason they call it an estimate folks. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif
  10. rluzinski
    What an unbelievable game to be at. I have never been to a playoff game before but that has to be what it's like. I was in the Metevante club watching the Brewers and Mets game at the same time and I couldn't believe how stressful it was. So in the middle of the 8th, the wife and I went down to the first level, near the LF pole. Didn't have to wait long for Braun to deliver! And yes, Wendy is gone and gone forever. I promised last year. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif This is fun! Still sinking in.
  11. rluzinski
    Call me crazy... but if I'm Lou, I want Sabathia - Sheets - Gallardo out of October, and I'll take my chances with Johan - something - something Fair enough, although 2 of those 3 pitchers have body parts stapled on right now. Also, the Mets have averaged 5.0 runs per game, compared to the Brewers 4.65. I guess it's a horse a piece.
  12. rluzinski
    i was about ready to stab myself if i heard vina talk about the brewers bringing their lunch-pail to work one more time That was their analysis?
  13. rluzinski
    So much for resting guys. The Brewers better get that AAA lineup on Saturday or Sunday or I'm going to be seriously cranky. Does Lou not realize that he should want to face: Dodgers & Milwaukee/Philli In the playoffs, over: Mets & Dodgers/Philli Now, the Brewers are the underdogs for today's game. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/frown.gif
  14. rluzinski
    BTW, the only except from The Book:... that I have been able to find just had a chapter preview: Go to this link: http://www.amazon.com/gp/...ref=sib_dp_pt#reader-link Then, do search for "sacrifice or not" You'll need an account but you can read much of the chapter. They break down all the odds beautifully. The success of the bunt is greatly affected by who attempts it and whether or not the defense is ready for it.
  15. rluzinski
    We ran threw our bullpen yesterday, we'll probably run through it again today, we can't have another Sheets 3 inning game tommorrow. Even if Sheets only goes 3 innings, Bush could probably finish the game if needed. Sheets being available can only help the bullpen. Well, I feel 100% confident we'll get 7 strong innings out of Sheets tomorrow. I certainly share your uneasiness but it's not like he was going to throw 80 pitches the day before a start. Sheets is going to go out there tomorrow and his elbow is going to start to hurt after 10-20ish pitches or it's not. He and everyone else will know when it does, since he'll start throwing 89 MPH fastballs again. I would guess that Bush will prepare like he's starting tomorrow, just like McClung is today. This is good news!
  16. rluzinski
    "It is odd that community members sometimes have better sources than beat guys." It seems to have happened a lot lately. Did Tom know that Gallardo was starting yesterday?
  17. rluzinski
    I haven't looked at any numbers but his entire approach at the plate seems to be WAY off. It would be interesting to look at these numbers to see if he really has been swining at a lot mroe junk: http://www.fangraphs.com/...ype=4&season=2008&month=0 It sure seems like it.
  18. rluzinski
    "Apples to Oranges. We are talking about the Organization's top prospect here and an injury to one of our key players. We aren't talking about an average pitcher underperforming and replacing him with a pitcher who's had success earlier in his career." I meant only with regard to trying the unknown because something unexpected might happen. At this point, we'd expect Escobar to be a slick fielder who can't hit. I think some of Escobar's BABIP is sustainable, merely because of his speed. In the majors this year, there's only 3 players with at least 300 PA who have a BABIP of .375 or higher. That's incredibly high. And even if he earned that in AA, we'd still expect it to be lower at the meajor league level.
  19. rluzinski
    "This brings up a decent point though. Why the heck hasn't Lamb been used at 3B? He's been playing 3B for a while and he can't be any worse than Counsell has been when you factor in his offense." I could be wrong but I believe Lamb has a reputation for having bad defense. EDIT: Astro fans thought he stunk last year, defensively: http://www.tangotiger.net...scoutResults2007_HOU.html
  20. rluzinski
    "Are you going to tell me that there has never been a ML ball player that has put up better stats in the majors than he did in the minors? Not even for 3 days?" There is a chasm of misunderstanding here. The theory seems to be that since you can't predict what a player is going to do for 3 games, you might as well ignore his previous performance. No one knows Escobar's true major league offensive talent level right now. And over 12 AB, even if you knew his true talent level, random variance could make him go 0-12 or 12-12. Still, the powers that be have to make an educated guess at his expected performance and construct a lineup based on it. Whether there's a ton of uncertainty in that guess is mostly irrelevant, isn't it? It has just as good of a chance of being too high as too low. This reminds me of the debate of having Weaver start over Bush, earlier in the year.
  21. rluzinski
    The expected offensive contribution from Escobar and Counsell is basically negligible, especially in 3 games, right? My concern with Escobar's expected offense has to do with facing a RH pitchers. I was comparing Escobar's expected production to the 3B alternative, as Counsell will be in there regardless. Tonight, Counsell will be starting at SS or 3B but you can count on him starting! Against lefties, you could easily make an argument for Escobar. "3 games are a LOT different than 162. A player can get lucky over 3 games and hit well. Heck, if Escobar gets 12 ABs the rest of the way, 3 hits puts him at .312 for the season. So does that mean he's a .300+ hitter? No. So I just don't understand how you saying that you can't expect him to hit .328. Hardy is a big bat missing from the lineup. So why not try the unknown?" Are you saying that since it's so few ABs, random variance could make his production anything, so it doesn't matter what his projected offensive performance is?
  22. rluzinski
    Adjust it using what? Baseball is not played on paper or in a simulation model, it's played out on the field.Adjust it to anything you want to, as long as it's way down. He won't be facing 19 year old minor leaguers, so he wouldn't be expected to bat anything near that. I'm not using advanced metrics to come to that conclusion, just common sense. Rant at krom if you need to, as he was the one to cite his minor league translations. And the "the game is played on the field!" rant just has to stop. I wonder if airline pilots yell at aeronautical engineers, "planes aren't flown on paper, they are flown in the air by people!" There are a million factors I'm not accounting for. I'm just trying to make a guess at his expected production with what we actually know.
  23. rluzinski
    Strawman. Nobody here has hinted that Escobar should be playing because he should hit .328 over 3 games. I am concerned that a 21 year old starting his first major league games against the Cubs with the playoffs on the line might have some yips defensively. I wasn't saying that anyone wanted Escobar in there for his offensive talents. I was suggesting that his expected offense in the majors would be terrible. I specifically brought up his batting average because, if you adjust it to anything remotely reasonable for the majors, his line is terrible. He didn't walk much and had no power. You are concerned about his nerves affecting his defense. I am more concerned about his offensive deficiencies. It's 3 games! Does it really matter if he does/doesn't hit .328 in those 3 games? I just don't really see how numbers are relevant when looking at 3 games. Whether it's 3 games or 162, I want the Brewers to put on the field the players they think gives them the best chance of winning. So do know someone close to the team or something? I'm surprised TH or McCalvy doesn't have better sources than you do. Someone PM'd me about this at 10:30 AM. might be the same guy. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif
  24. rluzinski
    "If this makes Counsell our starting SS, our team just got a lot worse. " I can stomach his offense at SS a lot more and he's probably at least Hardy's defensive equal. Bell or Branyan are not going to be as good defensively at 3B as Counsell but Hardy's offensive line isn't that great: .286/.346/.482 /.828 Is it confirmed that Branyan can't play the field? I think he could put up a line like that against righties, for sure. The offense will certainly take a hit against lefties, though,with Counsell in there.
  25. rluzinski
    "Just give it to Escobar for the next 3 games and see how he handles the pressure?" I'd be more concerned with how he handles probably not having the offensive skills yet to compete at the major league level. He had a decent line in AA this year (.328/.363 /.434/.797) ut he isn't going to hit .328 here quite yet, IMO.
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