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rluzinski

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Everything posted by rluzinski

  1. rluzinski
    Park factors jump around from year to year, in large part because of statistical noise. You need to use mutliyear, regressed ones, like Patriot supplies. Miller Park plays as a slight hitters park brcause of the extra HRs it gives up.
  2. rluzinski
    According to Dewan's system, the only firstbasman who's been defensively worse than Fielder over the last 3 seasons has been Jacobs. Last year, Jacobs was the worst by a landslide. Fielder is at least a great hitter. Jacobs had a .299 OBP last year and has a career OBP under .320. Negative value indeed. And the Rays were projected to be pretty good in 08. The Royals are just bad.
  3. rluzinski
    I think the Brewers can afford Fielder for one more year, so why trade him if they can afford him? The possibility of getting more production per dollar in a trade is why. Fielder's defense is so bad that his net worth really isn't all that special. The Brewers may not find a decent trade offer but just because they can afford him doesn't mean they shouldn't take a look.
  4. rluzinski
    Project ERA and IP and offer him what you think that's worth. If somone is willing to give a contract to Sheets that assumes 200 IP over the next 4 years, he will be overpaid. Of course, that's true for the vast majority of starting pitchers. 4.5 ERA @ 200 IP = 100 earned runs (Pitcher A) 3.5 ERA @ 160 IP (Sheets proj) + 5.25 ERA @ 40 IP (scrub AAA pitcher) = 3.85 @ 200 IP = 85.6 earned runs In that scenario, Sheets is worth about 15 runs/1.5 wins over Pitcher A. A free agent win costs about $4.5 mil on average these days. That makes Sheets is worth around $6-7 mil more than pitcher A next year. What would pitcher A make on the open market? 10 mil? Sheets at 1 year for $15 mil would be a steal, IMO.
  5. rluzinski
    Here's another defensive projection that put Hardy well ahead of Weeks: http://home.comcast.net/~briankaat/if2009.htm Hardy projects to essentially be an average defensive SS (+1 runs). Weeks projects to be one of the worst starting 2B (-9 runs). They may have been closer (relative to an average defender at their respective position) in 2008 than in years past but the projected gap is still substantial.
  6. rluzinski
    I'm talking about getting the most amount of wins with the money available. The fact that Sheets probably can't be counted on for 200+ IP doesn't automatically take him out of the running. It seems like some are very resistant to that concept and I don't understand why. Runs/wins above average per start x starts. I'm certainly willing to give the healthy pitcher a slight bonus but come on now.
  7. rluzinski
    "Why is it acceptable for a starter to be paid more money than a position player of comparable relative talent to make 24 of 32/33 starts just because he's a pitcher? There's a double standard here that doesn't seem to be acknowledged. " Comparison relative talent? Basically, all that matters is the how many wins above average a player projects to be, compared to an average player at his position. And using 33 starts is not a reasonable baseline.
  8. rluzinski
    The Brewers should work out a trade deal with Toronto that includes Overbay. I say that not because they seem like a good fit. I just think it would be funny. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif And any player is tradeable for the right package.
  9. rluzinski
    PAP aside Sheets had 230+ pitches over two starts when Yost knew he was hurt. I have no idea if that contributed to Sheets missing those last few starts but it sure didn't help. Just stupid.
  10. rluzinski
    There's a thread up at Insidethebook.com/ee that used the last 5 years of UZR to project defensive performance for next year. Weeks still projects to be one of the worst 2B in the league, so as a guess, it's hard for me to even project him as an average 2B for 2009, overall. I guess we need to know how many runs above an average 2B he projects to be on offense.
  11. rluzinski
    I don't think Prince's actions have affected his trade value at all. If he has another physical altercation, I will change my opinion very quicly but all the other stuff fans have criticised him for (contract status, attitude towards his father, etc....) is pretty darn mild, IMO. If you personally would like to see him traded because you don't like him, great. But because of my above opinion, I just don't find it very relevant to this discussion. Seems like a generic vent to me.
  12. rluzinski
    I don't think that teams would view Fielder as a strict DH, although they probably should. For that very reason, Prince is a prime candidate for getting good value in a trade. Throw in his 50 HRs and the fact he won't be cheep next year and it's almost a no brainer. The problem is that there is no good option to replace him in 2009. If you can find a league average defensive 1B, he won't have to hit as well as Prince but I don't think anyone that the Brewers currently have would work. Gamel's projections suggest that he's at least a year away and there's really no one else. Branyan? And could we, for once, have an intelligent conversation about Prince's future, void of personal attacks?
  13. rluzinski
    If you have to take at least a semester off anyway, there is no reason why you wouldn't at least look at job options. And don't forget that many employers will pay for your MBA.
  14. rluzinski
    Yo is one injury away from getting labeled "injury prone" by the fans himself. And I was talking about replacing Sheets with a free agent, which you will never be able to do. A 3.5 ERA over 160 P is worth a heck of a lot more than many seem to realize. $13-15 mil in arbitration? Sold! If a #6 type pitcher has to chip in a 5.0 ERA over 50 IP, you are still doing very well for yourself vs. whatever you'd get in free agency for the same price. Exactly how many true sub 4 ERA free agent pitchers are out there without an injury history of their own? The only pitcher on the team that was there when 'we needed them' was Dave Bush. Parra tanked the last month+, Sabathia tanked in the playoffs, Suppan tanked the last month+. Which goes back to a point I made in a different thread. Had Sheets been able to keep pitching but had a 5.0+ ERA over the last 2-3 starts, somehow many fans would have determined that he had a better overall season. It's OK to pitch poorly; just don't miss a start.
  15. rluzinski
    Brenly probably went on and on about how he could "fix" the offense. I look forward to his brilliant ideas staying in the broadcast booth next year.
  16. rluzinski
    I've lothed Yost for much longer than most, so no one can take that from me! I just think the majority of managers make decisions with their gut, not brains.
  17. rluzinski
    Looks like I have a very good chance of being correct when I said, "What's the rush of replacing Yost? His replacement will be just as bad."
  18. rluzinski
    "We're so used to operating without him for so long, that it shouldn't be tough to patch together a Sheets-free rotation in '09." All we'll have to do is find a someone who can put up a 3.5 ERA for 150 IP next year. How hard could that be?
  19. rluzinski
    I don't think I'd be comfortable trying to make generalizations about Villy as a starter vs. a reliever. The fact that he doesn't even project well as a reliever right now isn't very exciting, though.
  20. rluzinski
    Brittle Ben will not be wearing a Brewer uniform nect year. I hope he goes to Hou for next season, they could use a top end guy like that to waste away on the bench. Sheets pitching a 3.4 ERA over 160 innings would obviously make them a worse team? I'd love if you could explain how you worked that out in your head.
  21. rluzinski
    Trying to measure the skill of a manager by the win/loss record of his team is like trying to measure the skill of a batter by looking at his team's record. It's a waste of time.
  22. rluzinski
    Wild Card Championship makes no sense. Wild Card Winner is fine.
  23. rluzinski
    Well, Hunt thinks Brenly is the best choice, since he gives the best interview. He also knows the Brewers, since he talked about them on TV. So....there you go. Brenly likes to bunt, bunt, bunt. I'm sure he's fond of managing with his gut as well. No thanks.
  24. rluzinski
    I think Sheets has gotten the feeling that he's not going to be given a competitive offer from the Brewers and he's probably right. 3/40 is not going to do it. If Sheets would accept that, Melvin should hand deliver the cash today (provided that his injury shows no signs of being anything other than what it was reported to be). At $13/year, he could average about 125 IP/year and still be worth it. 4/60 would even be very tempting to me, altough every year added increases the risk exponentially. But consider if Sheets did this: YR/ERA/IP 09/3.5/180 10/3.6/180 11/3.6/150 12/3.8/50 Without running any numbers, I'd think he would have earned that $60 mil (at least with regard to the free agency market). I wouldn't hold it against Melvin for not wanting to tie up that much cash on one guy, though. I think the best thing that could happen for the Brewers is that Sheets doesn't get a good offer because of his current injury and he decides to accept abritration. 1/15?
  25. rluzinski
    "Melvin asked what was the most important thing for a lead off hitter and Homer side OBP, but Melvin said scoring runs." I swear that Melvin plays dumb for the media. Gosh, I hope so. As for Gamel, doesn't he have a decent shot of being Braun-bad at 3B. But despite Gamel having a sstick no where near Braun's, we are going to try it all over again?
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