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rluzinski

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Everything posted by rluzinski

  1. rluzinski
    I don't know how many times I've posted that table showing the negative run value of a K and BIP out in every base/out situation. It's based on the results of thousands of MLB games and it clearly shows that there's little difference on the balance. If that's not good enough, then nothing will be. The Cubs score a lot of runs because Theriot and DeRosa make the right kind of outs? I would think it.s because of their NL leading OBP (.355!) and the fact that they have a SLG higher than the Brewers. Get on base, move runners over. That's the foundation of scoring runs, not small ball. The Brewers do half of that well, which is why they still have an above average offense, despite having a ton of Ks. The facts just don't support what you guys are saying. It shouldn't surprise anyone that the suject has been studied in great detail. Now, if you want to argue the benefit of putting more balls into play (that may or may not result in an out) over a K, that's a completely different argument. A good projection system knows that a batter's K rate is very important. Some seem to confuse the two, however.
  2. rluzinski
    I can't get enough of your sarcastic comments! Awesome! Are you using sarcasm to complain about my sarcasm? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif "You have a ton of posts, but that's no reason for some of your negative posts here IMO." The number of posts I have is no reason for anything. It justified nothing. It's irrelevant.
  3. rluzinski
    I think whether the Brewers make the playoffs or not is a terrible way to decide who the manager is next year. Might as well flip a coin.
  4. rluzinski
    He's not even putting the ball into play. You at least give yourself a shot to get on base with a ball in play, but Cameron can't put the bat on the ball." That reminds me, I've really enjoyed Hardy and Hart's combined 35 GIDPs this year. Sometimes 1 out, no matter how it was made, isn't the worst possible outcome.
  5. rluzinski
    Not sure if this was mentioned but Harden's start get's bumped to Thursday, so no Zambrano or Harden for that last series. Not too surprising, obviously. Johan Santana wins tomorrow. Zambrano and Harden win the final two games of the series. Brewers take 2 of 3 from Pirates and are all tied up going into that last series with the sleeping Cubs. Why not?
  6. rluzinski
    I recognize that Escobar is CHEAPER than Hardy. Presumably, the only reason Hardy might not be here long term is money. Also, he has 2 more years until he's a free agent, so the Brewers might get a pretty good return for him in a trade this off season. Not saying he SHOULD be traded but these are the things you need to consider.
  7. rluzinski
    If Escobar is not supposed to be better than Hardy, then why even discuss this? Because there are many other things you consider, which is what we are doing and you are not.
  8. rluzinski
    This is all about the defensive spectrum. Most SS can also handle 3B. Most 3B could not play SS at an acceptable level. Since there is a greater pool of potential 3B to choose from, the average 3B is better offensively than the average SS. Hardy as a 3B/2B has less value to an average team than as a SS. As a corner OF, even less. 1B? Forget about it. Hardy may agree to be moved but I don't think so. It's not in his best interests. Last time I looked, his offensive numbers were great for a SS but nothing special for a 3B. I think the Brewers would have to give him quite the payday for Hardy to happily accept it, IMO. I'd just keep him for another and see how Escobar develops offensively.
  9. rluzinski
    Hammer, I wasn't even responding to you. Lbcj said something about the finances being irrelevant to him. The finances are everything. A GM that consistently overspends for players is going to consistently have less overall talent, not more. And walks are not everated by those that know an average walk is worth about 2/3rds of a single. And a walk on the Brewers offense is probably worth a hair more than a walk on an average offense, with all it's power. Finally, if you take 2 guys who are equal in every way except that one is good enough defensively to play SS, how is he going to make less money? I don't think your list is comparing apples to apples.
  10. rluzinski
    If you move Hardy off of SS, you are still going to have to pay him like a SS to sign him long term. That means you have to overpay him. If Hardy is not in the Brewers long term plans at SS, they should trade him. And if money is irrelevant, the Brewers should just sign every player to lifetime contracts.
  11. rluzinski
    Wow. Svuem really proved everyone who said that Durham can't play everyday, wrong. The guy lasted 3 straight starts?
  12. rluzinski
    He has been just SO bad so far, it's hard to have much faith in him.
  13. rluzinski
    "I don't really care to much if he meddles a bit, if he's willing to sink a bunch of money into the team as he has been." How about if Mark A. is only reason that Suppan and Gagne are even on the team? Gagne's performance was worth $0 and Suppan maybe $3 mil? A meddling owner can easily burn through whatever financial advantage he might have over another owner. No idea if Mark A. is one but if I had to guess...
  14. rluzinski
    When Suppan was signed, I'd say that bf.net was split right down the middle about the it. I'd love to repoll all those people you passionately argued that Suppan was a veteran, big game pitcher that could be counted on for years to come.
  15. rluzinski
    I'm kinda glad you couldn't sneak that past your wife right now. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif
  16. rluzinski
    OK, fair enough on your playoff wager. More than fair. What's it matter if you already gave BF.net money, though. You don't think you'd have to pay again anyway! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif
  17. rluzinski
    I don't think they will go 8-1 either but if I'm understanding you right, you are countering that don't have a shot at even winning this series. That's the prediction I want to see you back up. Not exactly bold of you to bet that the Brewers will finish 7-2 or worse. A Weeks jersey, no less. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif $25 to be donated to bf.net? Everyone wins! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif
  18. rluzinski
    I'm still emotionally broke. If the Brewers lose 20-0 today, I'm not going to let myself care. But as I said in that post, if they are still in a position to make the playoffs when the Cubs roll into town, I'll be cheering. I still have tickets to the last game.
  19. rluzinski
    This lineup is apparently chiseled in stone. Craig Counsell is a winner and veteran presence is worth 2 runs a game.
  20. rluzinski
    When did I leave?
  21. rluzinski
    BrewCityUnit will be making his self-imposed exit from the boards by Sunday afternoon at the latest. Well, unlike BCU, I bet you aren't willing to lay anything on the line on that prediction. You also seem to think that even if the Brewers split the first 2 games of the series, they will obviously lose CC's start on Sunday? Odd, to say the least.
  22. rluzinski
    The Brewers weren't nearly as good as many thought at the end of August (they are so hot, they are obviously better than the Cubs!), nor are they as bad as their September record suggests. It's not absurd to think this team could win 6 or 7 more games and still sneak into the playoffs.
  23. rluzinski
    Here's what I get for making the playoffs, depending on the outcome of this series: Current: 36% 1-2: 22% 2-1: 40% sweep: 60% Of course, that assumes that over the same period, the Mets will win 1.55 games and Phillie, 1.54 games. I'm the kind of guy that tries to root for optimistically realistic stuff, so my goal for the weekend is: Mets: 1:2 Phillies: 1-2 Brewers: 2-1 That would raise the Brewers' odds to about 50%. Not going to get worked up over anything bad that might happen though. All done with that.
  24. rluzinski
    The only reason Torres is the closer is because we have no one better. He's an OK reliever but I think everyone knows he's nothing special.
  25. rluzinski
    I hope the Brewers finish 7-3. I guarantee you that they would make the playoffs with that!
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