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rluzinski

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Everything posted by rluzinski

  1. rluzinski
    You just don't get it. The only thing that matters for a batter is his pre- All Star numbers from the current season. Last season doesn't matter. Post- All Star performance doesn't matter. Weeks and KKameron suck and that's that!
  2. rluzinski
    I just realized that I don't have the "if needed" Cubs vs. Astros game in there for Houston. Just throw that in the one Astros off day to fix. The probability is going to be way off though, That would most likely be played the day after the regular season?
  3. rluzinski
    If you are just using straight win%, the Mets and Phillies are dead even. They have the same number of wins now and are supposed tto finish: Phillies: .604 x 12 = 7.25 games Mets: .561 x 13 = 7.29 I have to guess that the spreadsheet is a alittle confusing for anyone who didn't make it.
  4. rluzinski
    If you are trying to say that raising the team's OBP will result in more runs, I'm right there with you. I'm arguing against the perception that Melvin has constructed a team that makes too many of the wrong kind of outs. For just about every stranded runner at 3B you can find, I can find you an inning ending double play. Melvin shouldn't be fired because his offense scores an above average number of runs the wrong way.
  5. rluzinski
    PM me your email and I will email you the file, if you would live. To use it, first choose the skill level type you want to use: WIN%: Assumes a team's win percentage perfectly reflects the true, collective talent of a team. WP3: Baseballprospectus's estimate of true talent. If you want to adjust the skill levels, select WP3 on the schedule sheet and edit the values in the WP3 column on the win% sheet. BP says the Brewers are a true .535 win% team right now. If you disagree, change it. All the spreadsheet does is take those 2 skill levels and a league average home/away split to estimate the probability of each game. This does not consider pitching matchups, though. Feel free to adjust the "W PRB" for each game to do so manually. If you think the Brewers have better than a .404 chance of winning tonight with CC, raise it. Think Parra will falter in game 3? Lower the odds for that game. Everytime you hit F9, you run a new simulation of the rest of the season. Watch as the Brewers are both inflated and deflated by the Yost firing dozens of times each!
  6. rluzinski
    For the 3 people who might like to try this: http://www.mediafire.com/...57cc11156d2db6fb9a8902bda Edit: Spelling correction in title.
  7. rluzinski
    I could also see the Cubs giving some positional players a day or two off in that last series.
  8. rluzinski
    Wow. So the noble booers have accomplished what they wanted. No more booing. Yipee! I agree that it's lame for a player to blame bad play on booing. I don't have a problem expressing that he doesn't like beeing booed, however.
  9. rluzinski
    Escobar would lead to consistently less runs in 2009, so I guess you are right about that. And while I agree that clogging the basepaths for your HR hitters is a good thing, Why should we expect Escobar to get on base more than either Hardy or Weeks next year? Escobar in the lineup next year might make the team better overall but it would be because of his defense, not offense. Like I said, there's plenty of mistakes Melvin has made. I don't see the makeup of the offense as one of them.
  10. rluzinski
    How cares how many relievers the Brewers currently have? Yo instantly becomes the best one if he joins it.
  11. rluzinski
    I'm fine with how it is right now, with Melvin staying where he is. It wouldn't surprise me if Mark A. was behind the Suppan and Gagne signings, which would make Melvins's firing that much sillier. And how long do we have to pretend that the Brewer's offense has been bad this year? They've been terrible the last 2 weeks but for the season, they have been good. Maybe if people weren't so focused on the idea of there being a "right way" to score runs, they would notice that. The notion that Escobar should be expected to lead to more than Hardy or Weeks... If you want to criticize Melvin and Jack Z., it should be for not placing enough importance on defense. The Brewers have one of the worst defenses in the leain the league and it wasn't an accident.
  12. rluzinski
    The irony is, had Yost been fired at the end of July, it would have been obvious to everyone to credit that move for the great August. But in reality, dumping Yost for Svuem would have had nothing to do with it. If the Brewers win now, it will be because Yost is gone. If they continue to lose, it will be because of Yost. That's the definition of scapegoat. I think whether it's Svuem or Yost in there makes little difference. The players are going to have to perform.
  13. rluzinski
    An act of desperation, to be sure. I have never liked Yost but the timing of this is pretty goofy, IMO. Yost was a bad manager in September and a bad one in August. This move essentially blames Yost for all the recent losing, which doesn't seem fair. And should I really be more confident with Dale Sveum running the show? He doesn't exactly come across as the sharpest knife in the drawer. And now, if the Brewers do something "completely unexpected" and finish 8-4 and make the playoffs, Sweum will be the hero and be the manager for years to come? All the articles have already been written. Nothing left to do but find out which one is published. I'm glad to see him go but if it's really Sveum who's replacing him..... woopy.
  14. rluzinski
    So, we might replace Cameron with someone who get's on base less and hits for less power but if he strikes out less, the team might score more runs? A balanced attack makes all the sense in the world in the NFL but almost none in baseball. If you think the 600th K is more costly to run production than the 599th, I'd like you to explain why, instead of just stating it as fact. I'm scared as heck when Kendall, Counsell or Hardy come up with a guy on 1st and 1 out. Maybe the Brewers need to reduce those pesky ball-in-play outs, so they can cut down on that double play rate..
  15. rluzinski
    Losing both ends of a doubleheader to fall into a tie for the wildcard is the worst day in Brewer history? I am as upset as anyone about blowing a very comfortable lead in the wildcard race but let's get a little perspective.
  16. rluzinski
    Meyerrs needs 1 more out and is at 93 pitches. Come on offense, you need 7 more pitches seen to break the century mark! EDIT: In the time it took me to write that, Hardy makes the final out in 2 pitches. 95 pitch complete game. That's very hard to do. Well, the Brewers have an uphill battle to win the wildcard for the first time in awhile.
  17. rluzinski
    Brewer batters have seen 88 pitches though 8 innings. Decent chance at a sub 100 pitch complete game. My goodness. Glad to see these gutless losers can hit solo homers when they're down 6 in the 7th. Yeh, let's call them childish names for hitting a HR. We all hate this but get a grip already.
  18. rluzinski
    The one thing Yost does right that other managers don't is not give up a bunch of free base runners via, the intentional walk. So much for that. Wow, looks like the Astros are going to lose though. Good news! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif
  19. rluzinski
    These last 2 weeks have just been completely unbelievable. There's no other way to describe it. Why don't you whine some more you pansies. Learn how to hit and pitch instead of whining about the booing. No wonder why they booed you. That's one way to express your frustrations, I guess.
  20. rluzinski
  21. rluzinski
    No, but it can't just be playing bad. It's attempting to explain WHY they are playing bad. There has to be SOMETHING I'm missing!
  22. rluzinski
    I've always wondered this... How can you tell when a player is playing flat or right or without confidence, as opposed of just playing bad? If there are some visual clues I'm missing, I'd appreciate someone pointing them out to me.
  23. rluzinski
    If sports fans had to even bet $10 every time they wanted to share their predictions with the world, you'd have a lot less predictions. As it currently stands, every possible result is predicted by someone, so there's always someone who can gloat about their awesomeness. Of course, they usually wait until they are right but hey. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif The Astros have been an insane tear and STILL have something like a 10:1 shot at making the playoffs. I know, I know... but they are hot! We'll see.
  24. rluzinski
    I was talking about starting different players just to "shake up" the lineup. That's an act of desperation, IMO. Maybe if someone could predict when batters would go in an out of slumps, great. It just doesn't work that way, though. At this point, we know who are the best overall hitters are. All you can do is start them and hope they begin hitting again. I know that doesn't satisfy the "Do Something!" crowd but sometimes there's just nothing to do.
  25. rluzinski
    You can call any offense that doesn't have 1.000 OBP, flawed. Every offense fails in at least 65% of their AB. The Brewers score runs by hitting for a bunch of power. That's what they do and so far, it's made them an above average offense. Like every other team, when they aren't doing what they do best, they aren't going to score much. A team might be great at playing small ball but actually average less runs than the Brewers. Am I supposed to believe that they are a less flawed offense? And more on topic, if the Brewers lose today.... I'm probably going to start panicing myself. The Brewers had built themselves up a nice enough lead that they could absorb a tough stretch. A Loss tonight and that padding will have pretty much been used up.
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