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rluzinski

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Everything posted by rluzinski

  1. rluzinski
    Thank you, Turnbow. Now hit the showers and ice that arm, please! 100 pitches in the last 6 games.... WOW.
  2. rluzinski
    86 pitches in 5 days... I just don't understand this....
  3. rluzinski
    That Jenks fella might be good some day, if he just learns to be "clutch"....
  4. rluzinski
    If we can get through a whole IGT without calling a routine baseball move as moronic or idiotic, I'll happily move on As long as we can also agree not to call for the benching or demoting in the lineup of any players, I am game! BTW, the Pirates scored 6 runs in the first against the Reds. I love watching the early suprising teams stop suprising http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif
  5. rluzinski
    I've been trying to get the Milwaukee SABR folks involved with our site a bit, but no dice so far. They actually have a meeting coming up... at Long Wong's http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif I wasn't planning on attending since I doubt there will be a sabermetric bend to it. Alot of the SABR stuff seems to involve historical studies, which isn't my cup of tea.
  6. rluzinski
    Hardball times had Jenkins as the best arm in baseball. A link to that article is actually in the first post of this thread.
  7. rluzinski
    Turnbow is a big boy. I think he'll be just fine. My personal feeling is that Turnbow probably shouldn't even been called up in that situation. He's had pitched int he last 3 games, no? Of course, after he had already been put in, I sure as heck wouldn't have pulled him for a crummy lefty. Owell, they won, soeveryone is happy.
  8. rluzinski
    I have it, and the book doesn't say that the Brewers gave up the most singles in front of RF last season. Yeh, I messed up. What the book says is that the Brewers HIT the most singles in front of teh RF last year, I believe. When you get around to posting those fielding numbers, it would be great to make it it's own thread and as in deapth as possible, please. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif
  9. rluzinski
    The key to that BP quote is "disciplined hitters"...which means patient hitters. They're getting better at plate discipline, but I have a good feeling about tonight. The Brewers are actually the most patient team in the the NL, with an average of 3.91 P/PA. If Floyd is willing to give walks, these guys will probably take them. It will be interesting to see how it plays out.
  10. rluzinski
    Anyone else a member here? I just joined last month.
  11. rluzinski
    The best defensive metrics use play-by-play data that shows were the ball was actually it and how hard. PMR, Dewan's +/- system (used in the fielding bible) and UZR come to mind. James' Win Shares just uses put outs, assists, etc.. for his defensive win share calculations. That kind of approach is very faulty because it can't even measure how many opportunities a fielder had. How James calculates the value of defensive wins shares relative to pitching win shares, is very arbitrary. He just assumes a constant ratio IIRC. James has done so much outstanding work in the field of sabermetrics but Win Shares doesn't seem to be one of them. Here's some more information, straight from the horse's mouth, when James introduced Win Shares at the 2001 SABR convention in Milwaukee: LINK
  12. rluzinski
    That was a very bad sac attempt by Miller but I'll take it! As a Brewer fan, it's not to be on the right side of crazy endings like that http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif
  13. rluzinski
    I wonder if any IGT could go a full page without someone calling for a player's benching http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif
  14. rluzinski
    I sure hope we do too. But rememeber the Brewers always allow big games to rookie pitchers. I'd like to see some actual numbers backing that up. I think Brewer fans (and all fans) just have unrealistic expectations against rookies/crafty lefties/crappy pitchers as a whole. I could obviously be wrong and it would certainly be interesting to see someone take a closer look. As for the lineup, when was the last time the Brewers had a guy batting over .330 in the #8 spot?
  15. rluzinski
    http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/7391/569/1600/win%20prob416.0.jpg You can find an explanation for the methodology I used HERE.
  16. rluzinski
    I'm going to start calculating series probabilites again, with a little twist. I'll be using raw stats to generate expected runs scored & runs against (using the BaseRuns run estimator). I'll then use the pythagorean to calculate expected record, and throw those winning % in the Log5 equation. As before, I'll give the home team a 4% bump.
  17. rluzinski
    James made alot of seamingly arbitrary decisions when constructing the methodology for win shares. Some have also questioned much of it's logic. How James dishes out defensive win shares is especially troublesome. Still, it's interesting enough to look at. You can find an insanely detailed description of the Win Shares methodology HERE.
  18. rluzinski
    President Bush just sent 6,000 National Guardsmen to try and stop Bill Hall. Bill Hall laughed.
  19. rluzinski
    Pop one Prince and make it a 2 run game. Please. That's why I slid the word true in. There exists a tier of pitchers above ace. Fair enough.
  20. rluzinski
    Trade Peavey for (a healthy) Sheets straight-up. You do it? Sure would. You weren't commenting on who was better, though. You were suggesting that Sheets doesn't even have the right to be considered an ace. No need to back-pedal now. Russ, you forgot to mention your personal favorite, Yost stinks. While I am still not a fan of many of his tactical moves, I had no problem with him being resigned. There's a difference between being critical of individual plays and making blanket negative comments about Brewer players/management.
  21. rluzinski
    It must be nice to have a true ace. O brother. I's really just the same 5 comments repeated over and over again at brewerfan.net these days. Sheets isn't a winner. Jenkins isn't clutch. Fire Wynegar. Etc...
  22. rluzinski
    Well, it was really 2nd and 3rd with 1 out. Yost, in his infinate wisdom, allowed a pitcher who was getting destroyed and had 65 pitches in 2 innings, bat for himself. I guess that 1/3rd extra IP he got out of him was worth it though. SHEESH!
  23. rluzinski
    Well Little Ben has 65 pitches through 2. Fernandez will get a bunch of innings today. This could get ugly.
  24. rluzinski
    Why? I'm not sure that focusing more on the Brewers will help them win. You are excepting the Brewers losing ways! They'll never win if we aren't hard on them! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif Look on the bright side. If Hendrickson can pitch 11 inning he'll have a quality start.
  25. rluzinski
    but at least he got out major leaguers in spring training He had 7 innings of work and had a 3.86 ERA. At least some of the guys he faced weren't even major leaguers anyway. He's also never pitched above AA, where he has an ERA over 5 in 58 IP there. Don't see how he's the answer.
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