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rluzinski

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Everything posted by rluzinski

  1. rluzinski
    Man, it's the same couple of posters that just ruin these in-game threads. The same tired cliches, the same horrible logic. This is where people used to go to escape this crap and have intelligent discussions about the Brewers. Most of the posters that had anything of substance to offer are long gone, though. presuming I was ever one of them, you can add me to that list.
  2. rluzinski
    I'm not rooting against anyone. I just don't get too excited about a marginal prospect with a low ceiling get called up. I hope he does great and exceeds everyone's expectations. Yes, we got a lot of analysis of Weeks' first 2 months last year. Look at all the available data. You have to go ALLLLL the way back to find Weeks' 2012 to see he SLG'd .400, so a .410 projection for him going forward is not exactly a hard sell. We all already know he has hit terribly this year so what is your point? That you have to have an RBI guy like Scooter in the 7 hole? I already did. Weeks projects to have the better OBP and SLG, so it's an easy choice. You are simply overvaluing BA at the bottom of the order. Well that and you are trying to talk yourself into believing that Scooter should project to have as much power as Weeks. If you believe that, more power to you. Hey look, as I type that, Weeks just hit a HR. Now if we want to talk about the two platooning, that might be a different situation. But again, YIPPEE. The Brewers MIGHT win an extra game and finish 12 under. That and the 50 extra tickets from friends and family.
  3. rluzinski
    I think that is a reasonable projection for Gennett, perhaps even a little low. Your explanation for why Weeks' projected line would actually be expected to result in less runs than Gennett's is pretty hard to understand. however. SLG and walks should basically take a back seat to singles? It is true that the relative value of batting events changes depending on the base/out situation. That is not going to make a line with a higher OBP and SLG inferior, however. not even close. We care about team runs, not player RBIs.
  4. rluzinski
    I've demonstrated this before but it is pretty damn easy to make sure Weeks' option doesn't vest. There is absolutely no need to bring up anyone to insure that it doesn't.
  5. rluzinski
    I'll take a groundball with a chance over a strikeout any day. But if we are comparing a groundout to a K, the difference in terms of expected production doesn't make it worth caring about. I want Brewer wins, not pretty outs.
  6. rluzinski
    I wouldn't be surprised if you said the same thing around this time last year. As we all know, Weeks rebounded nicely from a terrible start and ended up hitting .260/.344/.445/.789 from June 1 on. While I don't expect him to repeat that kind of performance again this year, I certainly am expecting a significant rebound. Everyone should. Weeks has a rest of season ZiPS projection of .238/.332/.410, which sounds pretty reasonable if you ask me. So far, Gennett has proven that if he bats .300 he can match that line.... in the minors. Gennett is young and I won't pretend to know what he will develop into. That said, anyone who's convinced themselves that Gennett represents a clear offensive upgrade over Weeks for this season is fooling themselves. It's possible but not likely.
  7. rluzinski
    Of course it could.
  8. rluzinski
    Why is anyone in a rush to start Gennett's clock? The year is all but completely lost. And I don't see him getting more than 3 starts a week anyway.
  9. rluzinski
    So what you are really saying is both failed at achieving the ultimate goal so neither had what it took. But really, there are many factors I would look at when trying to assess how well a GM has performed. I certainly wouldn't start and end with whether or not one of their teams had at least one appearance in the World Series. I think Melvin is decent but if the Brewers can get a better GM, great. I just don't have much faith that his would-be successor would be better. There are a lot of clueless GM's out there. And I understand that I can't prove it, but with all the dinners Mark A always seems to have with aging starting pitchers before they are signed, I think he does some serious meddling at times.
  10. rluzinski
    I will happily take the over on 11 wins. Loser donates $50 to a charity of the winner's choice. We chose ahead of time and the loser posts evidence that they made the donation. Come on, first person willing to put their money where there mouth is can make $50 for their charity! I mean, it's obvious the Brewers will continue playing historically bad, right?
  11. rluzinski
    This is pretty standard stuff. On average, pitchers lose somewhere around 1 MPH a season I believe. Gallardo has probably been a little better than average: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=8173&position=P#pfxpitchvelocity Also, have to be careful to look for "trends" when it's not even June yet. Hard to find trends over full seasons.
  12. rluzinski
    The Brewers currently have the 3rd worst record but no way they are the 3rd worst team in terms of actual talent. Not that it is a particularly exciting prospect but I would expect them to play around .500 going forward. I have to ask again, why in the world do we start a RP? Pull up a guy from the minors for one start, do something, anything, but why a RP? Makes no sense. No magical difference between a starter or reliever. A good reliever is going to be better than a AAAA starter, which is what else was available.
  13. rluzinski
    This is getting pretty crazy.
  14. rluzinski
    Why am I still watching this?
  15. rluzinski
    I'm glad I am almost done having to watch Yuni B refuse to walk on an almost daily basis. Instead of loading the bases, he hits into a double play to end the inning.
  16. rluzinski
    There we go! Something to cheer for. I anticipated having to wait awhile for ARam got back into it but he's been great since his return.
  17. rluzinski
    I feel like I have already watched this game about 20 times this year. EDIT: Apparently I should just have edited my first post as I am the only one commenting on another train wreck of a game.
  18. rluzinski
    Classy of Gomez to tip his cap to Hicks for bringing a would-be HR back.
  19. rluzinski
    He will certainly help but one guy just doesn't typically make a huge impact. If Hart is a 3 WAR player, he'll be worth about 2 extra wins over the balance of the season. I agree with others that the biggest impact hart can have this year is by playing well enough to get the Brewers a nice return in a trade.
  20. rluzinski
    Look on the bright side. If the Brewers win out for the rest of May, they will finish that month 9-19.
  21. rluzinski
    Why should I believe Bianchi can even match offensively Weeks' 2012 season? Well Weeks had a bad year in 2012 except for a couple of months so that is not saying much but it doesn't really matter anyway. Bianchi would exceed Weeks 2013 season and any future season Weeks has and any season Weeks had on defense. Bianchi has a role on this team in the future and Weeks does not so there is no real reason to play him anymore unless Melvin thinks he will get hot during a small stretch and have an opportunity to trade him. 1. We should not consider the portions of Weeks' 2012 season in which he played well because it was "only for a couple of months". Therefore, his overall line for that season is misleadingly high. Got it. 2. Bianchi will be better in 2013 than Weeks and every subsequent season because he will be. Got it. 3. Weeks is obviously done but maybe if he plays good for a small stretch, Melvin thinks he might be able to trick another team into thinking Weeks is not done, even though it is obvious to everyone he is done. Got it. I literally can't argue against that kind of logic.
  22. rluzinski
    Why should I believe Bianchi can even match offensively Weeks' 2012 season?
  23. rluzinski
    The reason Weeks has not been permanently benched has as much to do with WHY he is being paid as much money as he his. There are too many baseball fans who think that all a replacement for Weeks has to do is match his (poor this year) defense and hit better than .168/.283/.268 to justify the move. Unsurprisingly, those are the same fans that are going to constantly demand established players be benched for utility players (an epidemic among MLB fans). Weeks' updated ZiPS projection is .237/.333/.413/.746. We can certainly debate about how "right" that is but everyone should recognize that just like last year, we shouldn't expect Weeks to continue hitting terribly. Now if someone think Bianchi's projected offense and defense projects better than a reasonable projection for Weeks, so be it. I would strongly disagree but at least the question is being framed correctly.
  24. rluzinski
    I hope you don't make a habit of "putting your money where your mouth is" using that kind of analysis. Of course, you do have have the word Vegas in your username...
  25. rluzinski
    And I would contend that it is almost exactly 50% of the components that wins games. Now, if we are talking about how 2-3 elite starting pitchers on one team can rampage through the playoffs, sure. Otherwise, I am not understanding the argument. Let's say league average runs/game is 4.5 and we have two teams: Team A: 6 runs scored/game 6 runs given up/game Team B: 3 runs scored/game 3 runs given up/game Is the theory that team B should be expected to win against A more often than 50% of the time? I will have to ponder that but it would suggest a run saved is worth more than a run scored and the free market does not seem to support that. Not at all. Certainly, an extreme offense that only scores in bunches (one that only walked or hit HRs, for instance) would have more 6+ run games than an average team. That would hurt their expected win% but I don't believe that to be a very large factor for a real team.
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