rluzinski
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Everything posted by rluzinski
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Help me get excited about this team...
rluzinski replied to BuckyBrewer61's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Except with Macha and every other time it isn't true. But yeh, 100% If this team win 10 in a row and is leading the NL Central, we'll be bombarded with plenty of stories about antics and personality and all that other stuff that comes along with WINNING. -
They were speculating yesterday that it would happen this homestand.
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Nice to have you back, Rickie!
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Brewers are big underdogs today, so it doesn't look like Vegas cares very much about how well the Brewers have done against them in the past.
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So you responded with "you don't get it". Gotcha ya. What is the break even point? You've been around for awhile. There have easily been 2 dozen posts last year alone dedicated to explaining the position that suicide squeezes need an incredibly high probability of success to even justify attempting it. You are free to disagree with that position but your response suggests you've never even heard it before. Hard to muster up the effort to respond as a result. You already know what you know.
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I asked you what you thought the break even point was and you ignored the question. The point is, the majority of the time, with a runner at 3rd with 1 out. 1 run will score without giving an out away. You also have a chance of scoring multiple runs. All managers know squeezes will work most of the time. Most are smart enough to know that isn't the point.
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I am saying, All managers for the most part terrible. They are all going to do something that is going to upset a fan base. So getting upset over a squeeze bunt over and over again when for the most part has worked for him in the past seems odd to me is all. You don't get it.
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The fact is that no batter can always put the bat on the ball, which is something most managers consider when deciding not to obsessively call for sueeze after squeeze. Which has worked a ton for him? I am sick of explaining this. What do you think is the break even point in that situation?
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The fact is that no batter can always put the bat on the ball, which is something most managers consider when deciding not to obsessively call for sueeze after squeeze.
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Intentional unintensional walk costs the Brewers the lead.
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Intentional unintensional walk costs the Brewers the lead.
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RR is smarter than everyone else because he uses squeezes 10x more than everyone. Or not.
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With two outs, the argument is that it is not worth any significant risk to even make that throw. Weeks had a horrific defensive performance last night but he did not lose the game alone. Not even close. The offense scored 1 run and Weeks' defense only directly accounted for 1 run, which would have TIED the game. The Brewers' offense gets some significant blame here. But of course, it is just one game, so I can't get too upset, especially considering it is the first loss in a long time.
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His defense has been nothing but phenomenal and I am more confident in it not being a result of small sample luck for sure. His offense? Looks to project to be very good for a SS. Something like .300/.330/.420 right now, with room to grow of course (he's only 23). Very exciting start for sure but any talk of him perennial all-star is REALLY premature, IMO. In other words, buy out 5 of his 6 prearby years, plus 3 more?
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It was a 2-2 count so now you just sound silly.
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Braun hits a HR in about 5% of his PA, so it's those kind of considerations that make "The Book" decisions too risk averse. Again, I am not suggesting I know exactly where that break even point is (would need to simulate it to have a better feel). I just know that walking the bases loaded has all kinds of problems associated with it.
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To be fair, up by 1 early, it isn't as bad a move. I believe that it increases the odds of 1 run but may lower the overall run expectancy for the inning, depending on the batters in question. There was a "Intentiionally Walk Bonds" study done by tangotiger many years ago: http://www.tangotiger.net/walkbonds.html It looks like his assumptions have been lost, however. Have to the imagine the difference between the two batters is larger with Bonds then Braun, though.
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8 games ago, who thought the Brewers could be a win away from tied for second place on 4/23?
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I can't wait. Neither Lucroy or Weeks should be batting 4th and I hope that is something we can all agree on. i just want the Brewers to stay a couple of games above .500 until they can get to full strength, offensively. Five weeks is a long time, however.
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And MANY of those runners on base were passed onto Lucroy.... who is batting 4th today. That is why I am suggesting that swapping 4/5 hitters is not a huge deal. And here, the newly protected Braun is getting intentionally walked. I am happy to see this as intentionally loading the bases is always a bad idea. It is not always a bad idea, just mostly. 2 outs R2 R3 it is clearly better to walk the 8 hitter to get to Ben Sheets OK, fair enough
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Intentionally walking Bruan actually improved the Brewer's situation in terms of total runs scored. Extra runner plus a walk = run. It was a chicken something move and I am glad Lucroy made it hurt.
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And MANY of those runners on base were passed onto Lucroy.... who is batting 4th today. That is why I am suggesting that swapping 4/5 hitters is not a huge deal. And here, the newly protected Braun is getting intentionally walked. I am happy to see this as intentionally loading the bases is always a bad idea.
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What a crazy inning with all those opposite field hits and now an infield bunt. Segura and Braun could do some real damage here.
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From Yahoo Fantasy: Brewers manager Ron Roenicke said Aramis Ramirez's (knee) status should become clearer in the next couple day. Advice: Ramirez hasn't felt any soreness during workouts, but the club will push him harder over the next few days. It sounds like he could begin a rehab assignment soon if his knee responds well to the ramped up workouts. The Brewers will continue to go with Alex Gonzalez and Yuniesky Betancourt at the hot corner until A-Ram is ready. Thanks. Sounds like we are still talking about a couple of weeks though?
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There goes that fuzzy feeling from having an early lead. Thank gosh for the DP. Ask Giancarlo Stanton how it's working out for him in Miami..... You have to realize how weak of an argument you are making by providing evidence in the form of one player struggling over 57 PA.