trwi7

Totally awesome that the play that cost the Nationals is a strikeout and awful throw to 1st by Wieters.

There better be a damn good view that was split screened or that we didn't see because that tag wasn't on long and there was no view that showed the tag still on when his foot popped off for a split second.

Hey, did you guys hear about Aaron Judge? Aaron Judge! Aaron Judge AARON JUDGE!!!!!!!!!!!!!1111!!111!111111!1!1!

Let's just say that I don't think Andersen is going to be getting any Christmas cards from his assistants. http://www.oregonlive.com/sports/oregonian/john_canzano/index.ssf/2017/10/canzano_gary_andersens_exit_ro.html#incart_2box_sports_oregonian_john_canzano

Probably because he's left handed.

Since when is 730 OPS (90 OPS+) a 'no-hit' shortstop? Clayton (and many other Brewers over the last 25 years) was ~630 OPS (68 OPS+). That's a big difference. Arcia certainly has things to work on during the off season, but he's young enough to think that he has a real chance to improve. If he regresses like Segura, then it will be a problem, but even plateauing at the production he had this year makes him serviceable, particularly with his defense. He was 14th in wOBA out of 22 qualified shortstops and 16th in wRC+. He was also only 18th in fWAR and 15th in defense.

I think it's adorable that the writer thinks the Giants have enough prospects to get Santana.

This is exactly what some analytics guys in front offices do, evaluate the surplus value (if there is any) now and in the future for free agent signings, trades etc. Now, they obviously aren't GMs but I'm sure the info is passed along to the GM and then he makes a decision on whether it makes sense and is worth the risk on whether or not they're getting enough surplus value in the front part of a free agent contract compared to the likely negative value at the back or if they're getting enough in a trade. Obviously the GM has the final say and may or may not listen to how much value they're getting but to say people aren't doing that in front offices is wrong. They'd be foolish to not at least listen to what their analytics guys have to say and then make a judgment on a trade/free agent signing from there.

I would love to hear their rationale for not only having Ray in the top 100 but in the 50s when he hasn't hit in pro ball at all. And nobody bother posting their write up on him, it's the same as it was early in the season that still says he's gotten off to a slow start in the Florida State League, I don't need to read their fluff that's also filled with inaccurate information on what league he plays in.

Over the last 3 years Jared Hughes has stranded 80.6% of runners. His strikeout rate in that time is 5.71 K/9 or 182nd out of 186 qualified relievers. In that same time frame Dellin Betances has the highest strikeout rate among qualified relievers (14.83 K/9) and has stranded 79.4% of runners. Kimbrel is 2nd with 14.68 K/9 and has stranded 80.7. Aroldis Chapman is 4th at 14.17 K/9 and strands 81.2% of runners. Edwin Diaz, Michael Feliz and Carl Edwards are 6-8 in highest K/9 and have stranded 81%, 68.8% and 71.7% respectively. Trevor Rosenthal, Ken Giles, Cody Allen, Kirby Yates, Kyle Barraclough, Will Smith, David Robertson, Jason Grilli, Tommy Kahnle, Boone Logan, Shawn Kelley, Keone Kela, Koji Uehara and Tyler Thornburg have all struck out at least 11 per 9 in the last 3 years and they all have strand rates between 73.4% and 79.8%.

Any reasoning behind why you don't think he'll be an ace reliever? I can maybe see his walk rate being an issue, but mixing 98 up in the zone, an 80 mph curveball, and some deception make life pretty difficult for batters. I don't think he's going to strand 92% of the runners that reach base against him like he did this year. The only two that were higher than that this year were Kimbrel and Matt Albers (could've given me a million guesses and I wouldn't have guessed him). Last year only Andrew Miller and Alex Colome were better. 2015 only Wade Davis and Josh Collmenter were better. 2014 only Huston Street and K-Rod were better. If you go over a 5 year stretch, nobody is higher than 87.4% (Wade Davis) and guys like Kimbrel, Britton, Miller and Jansen are between 83.3 and 84.6% so I think it's completely unrealistic to expect any reliever to consistently post strand rates above 90%.

I'd trade Knebel for sure. Of course I don't think he's going to be an ace reliever for the next 3-5 years either.

But I thought where you pick doesn't matter?

Why? Knebel is 25 and he'll probably regress just because it's really hard to have a 1.8 ERA over a full season buoyed by a 92% strand rate. Phillips isn't going to keep a .400 BABIP so unless he significantly improves his contact rate in the offseason, he's going to regress. Is Arcia going to improve with his approach at the plate? It's more likely he stagnates or regresses than improves if he doesn't improve his plate discipline. Young players don't just automatically improve because they're young, especially when they have serious flaws in their game. Anderson has a HR/FB rate of 8.6%. As an extreme fly ball pitcher does anyone really expect him to keep it that low? The average LOB% is around 73%. Anderson is over 80. Could he keep that high strand rate? I guess it's possible but is it more likely that he regresses to around the league average? Anderson's BABIP this year is .265. He's a pretty extreme fly ball pitcher so he'll probably have a better than average BABIP but will it be .265 or closer to .285 like his career average?

If knebel can get more consistent with his control, he could be a truly elite closer. He has a 1.80 ERA and a 2.50 FIP. Again, how much is he going to improve on those numbers? The chances that he does are miniscule. The chances that he strands 92% of the runners that reach base against him again are miniscule. The chances he strikes out 15 per 9 innings again are miniscule. Arcia can get more consistent defensively and has the bat speed to be more of a weapon at the plate versus a number 8 hitter. Arcia is already a good defender. Maybe he gets a little better defensively but he's not going to improve offensively if he keeps up his 5% non-IBB walk rate and swinging at 38.6% of pitches outside the strike zone. He has some serious offensive flaws in his game and it's not exactly easy to teach plate discipline to a guy who's never had it. Phillips looked very good at the plate based on the eye test He swings and misses a lot, 30% strikeout rate in Colorado Springs, 35% in the big leagues. Slightly below average offensively this year with a .400 BABIP. Again, some serious flaws in his game. And hader's control has improved considerably since his callup. Yeah, in the bullpen. I'm assuming they plan on making him a starter again and how will his control be when he's going 5-6 innings facing a lineup multiple times? I think we'll see the September Thames much more so than the guy we saw at any other point, and September Thames is a stud. September Thames has a .485 BABIP. He'll have months like September where he gets lucky and hits. He'll have months where he can't recognize pitches and hits under .200 with a sub .700 OPS and strikes out 36% of the time like June and August. One other guy hit the nail on the head, you seem incredibly pessimistic and negative about the team and the young talent we have. That's because I see a bunch of 28-32 year olds having career years and I don't think they can do it again. We saw the same thing with Guerra last year, except we have like 6-8 possible Guerras going into 2018 and the young players we do have, whether some of you want to admit it have some serious flaws in their game.

Thames is out of his prime. This is what he is. He's not getting better. I don't have much confidence in Arcia improving offensively with his approach at the plate. How is Knebel going to get any better? This is probably the best season he's ever going to have. Until Phillips cuts down his strikeout rate, he's going to need some insane luck to post decent offensive numbers. Hader is already good in the bullpen, take him out with his control and make him a starter and he's probably going to regress and give us some 7 inning, 0 run, 13 strikeout type starts but also plenty of 3 inning, 6 run, 5 walk starts. I know a lot of people don't want to believe it but this isn't a young team with upward mobility. There are a lot of older guys on this team and the younger guys have some pretty serious flaws in their games.

I see a ton of regression candidates. Anderson, Shaw, Santana, Hader, Pina, Phillips, Nelson, Sogard. We're potentially losing Walker and Swarzak. But hey, at least we'll have the 20th pick in the draft.

For once this isn't about the Cardinals. This is about another Brewers failure to stomp on someone's neck and put away a team. Sitting on early leads and losing them late is the summary of the 2017 Brewers. A 6 run lead should be enough for the pitching to hold.

Who's going to close if you use Knebel, asks Buck Showalter.

Braun overrunning that sums up his defense.

Not only a presence in the lineup but also a veteran presents TM.

This FS1 pregame show is awful and that's almost exclusively because of Nick Swisher.

Must win game and you go with Junior Guerra. What could go wrong?