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Predicting a full season of Garrett Mitchell in 2023

Steven Ohlrogge



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Garrett Mitchell showed flashes with the bat and bolts on the basepaths when he got a brief cup of coffee in the majors in 2022.

In 61 at-bats,  Mitchell accumulated a 0.9 WAR. He showed he knows how to track fly balls down in center, displaying his plus speed. His sprint speed at  30.2 ft per second currently ranks him 6th in MLB, the number one spot going to Diamondbacks young stud Corbin Carroll, who has a 30.7 ft per second ranking.  Mitchell trails by a mere half-point difference.

He managed a perfect 8 for 8 in stolen base attempts using his demon speed. It only takes Mitchell 4.01 seconds to reach first base from home plate. This will surely cost some unlucky infielders some errors knowing they have almost no time to get a good throw off to first.

Mitchell managed a respectable line of .312/.373/.459 in 2022. He hit two homers and drove in 9 runs in 28 games.  After seeing a brief glimpse of a young star in the making, what could a full season of production look like for Garrett Mitchell?

To start, we should dive into his minor league stats before his jump to the MLB. In 2022, across three leagues (Rookie ball, Double-A, and Triple-A. Mitchell produced at a .287/.377/.426 with five homers and 34 RBI.  Mitchell may not become a 30/30 player in the bigs since he never really has shown much pop, but there is something that could make Mitchell an extremely valuable player.

We discussed earlier in the article about his speed, but knowing what he did in 2022, was his perfect 8 for 8 in bags stolen a fluke, or can Mitchell accomplish something special on the bases? Mitchell showed off his thieving skills during his 2022 season across three leagues, snagging 17 bases and was caught just once. He is a very gifted base runner. Not only could his base-stealing abilities come in handy, but he could also turn most of his base hits into extra ones.  In 2022, Mitchell's batted ball velocity averaged 92.9 mph, with a maximum velocity of 122.4.  If Mitchell focuses on hitting the ball a tad softer, it could allow him to take that extra base on his would-be singles.

Knowing Mitchell's strengths, we can now have a little fun predicting what his 2023 line could look like. If he stays healthy, hits the field regularly, and gets his 41.2 strikeout percentage down, he could have a decent year.  

Assuming he is the leadoff hitter, we can safely predict a line of .265/.324/.462, 12 homers, and 65 RBIs. He should, without a doubt, have no trouble swiping 30 bases if he can get on base consistently.

2023 will be an interesting season for Milwaukee, and here's to Mitchell becoming a star of the future for a hopeful playoff contender.



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I think the max exit velocity you mention was by Oneil Cruz? Mitchell I think had a top EV of 109.9mph!

He also had expected BA of .187 and xSLG of .339, so while with his speed I would suspect he outdoes his expected stats, I think with his ground ball rate and his propensity to swing and miss, he may struggle to put anywhere quite close to a .265/.324/.462 line without some swing changes, I agree he could do well swiping bases when he gets on, one of those guys you almost know is going to steal. His floor is quite high with the defense etc. He's a high variance player who could go a number of ways, granted, but unsure he's quite like this? Much more like a bottom of the line-up guy than someone leadoff I would suggest


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He doesn’t even have to become a big launch angle guy, but if he goes 20+ percent line drive, 30+ percent fly ball and less than 25 percent strikeout rate, he is probably a really valuable center fielder. The question is if he can get there.

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