Alfonso Soriano - Broken finger on left hand - out 6 weeks

[Mr QL]

They're probably better without Soriano. Hopefully it hurts them but I'm not counting on it.

[Brewcrewin07]

Through March/April, when Soriano sucked to the tune of a .528 OPS, the team still went 17-10.

They also didn't play anyone in that stretch.

 

[rluzinski]

They also didn't play anyone in that stretch.

27 games, 16 home, 11 road. Opponents had an average win% of .485 (79 win team). Let's see how that schedule might have benefited a .500 team:

Date		OPP	Opp WIN%	Exp Wins
Mar	31	MIL	.523	.517
Apr	2	MIL	.523	.517
Apr	3	MIL	.523	.517
Apr	4	HOU	.500	.540
Apr	5	HOU	.500	.540
Apr	6	HOU	.500	.540
Apr	7	@PIT	.485	.475
Apr	9	@PIT	.485	.475
Apr	10	@PIT	.485	.475
Apr	11	@PHI	.582	.378
Apr	12	@PHI	.582	.378
Apr	13	@PHI	.582	.378
Apr	15	CIN	.463	.577
Apr	16	CIN	.463	.577
Apr	17	CIN	.463	.577
Apr	18	PIT	.485	.555
Apr	19	PIT	.485	.555
Apr	20	PIT	.485	.555
Apr	21	NYM	.484	.556
Apr	22	NYM	.484	.556
Apr	23	@COL	.400	.560
Apr	24	@COL	.400	.560
Apr	25	@WSN	.388	.572
Apr	26	@WSN	.388	.572
Apr	27	@WSN	.388	.572
Apr	29	MIL	.523	.517
Apr	30	MIL	.523	.517
			.485	14.1

Expected Record of 14.1 - 12.9. That schedule added about half a win. The Cubs are frauds!

the problem with the law of averages is that it means the cubs are incredibly overdue to win the world series as well..

Lucky for the Brewers...

"As invoked in everyday life, the "law" usually reflects bad statistics or wishful thinking rather than any mathematical principle."

Law of Averages

Take that, Cubs fans!

 

[Thurston Fluff]

the problem with the law of averages is that it means the cubs are incredibly overdue to win the world series as well

 

The Brewers-Mariners world series is going to be sweet.

[davemakovec]

I predict a 1.200 OPS from some the ball boy in Soriano's absence. This won't hurt them at all.

 

I do find it ironic that after a Cubs player takes out Gallardo, a former Brewer returns the favor with Soriano.

[tristarscoop]

When Soriano was out earlier in the season, the Cubs were 9-5. I'm not sure if that's good or bad.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

All these statistics are a overly complicated ways to try and predict an unpredictable thing. It doesn't matter what their record was with or without Soriano or what their expected W/L is. The fact is they are a worse team without Soriano in the lineup. The Brewers had a worse record after Braun was called up than they had before. Would anyone argue they are a better team without Ryan Braun?

 

The loss of Soriano will hurt the Cubs. But it's not insurmountable and for the Brewers it all comes back to the same thing - we need to play better.

[sgtcluels]

The stats point that they aren't going to be AS hurt as we would be if say we lost Braun.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

And the W/L record points out that we are better without Braun right? Maybe if we sent him back down we'll go on a 24-10 run. Stats lie, that's the point.

[endaround]

Randomly throwing out numbers without actually understanding what your doing is ignorance, not lying.

[rluzinski]

All these statistics are a overly complicated ways to try and predict an unpredictable thing.

 

It's not complicated at all. I used a few simple equations to estimate the expected performance of an average team against those teams (assuming each team's current record is representative of their true talent). Call it a guestimation if it makes you feel better. Dismissing the Cubs's 17-10 record through April because of their supposedly easy schedule is not supportable, as far as I can tell.

 

It doesn't matter what their record was with or without Soriano or what their expected W/L is. The fact is they are a worse team without Soriano in the lineup.

 

So, whether the Cubs are expected to lose half a game less or 10 games less is irrelevant?

 

And the W/L record points out that we are better without Braun right? Maybe if we sent him back down we'll go on a 24-10 run. Stats lie, that's the point.

 

Bad stats like that do, certainly. The trick is to educate yourself enough to be able to distringuish the difference. Or you can do what you've done and just reject all of it.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Will this injury even cost the Cubs 3 games in the 6 weeks? What stat would we use to figure that out hypothetically?

[kiwi brewer]

probably won't matter too much. they are patient at the plate. know they are going to win. blah blah blah.

 

but the best bit is that i heard soriano actually fractured his RING finger.

 

a sign?

[endaround]

Soriano right now has a VORP of 15.6, meaning he might be 4-5 wins over replacement over an entire season, 6 weeks is nothing.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Soriano right now has a VORP of 15.6, meaning he might be 4-5 wins over replacement over an entire season, 6 weeks is nothing.

Yeah I didn't think this injury really meant that much. You can cover up an injury to a LF a lot easier than to your #2 starting pitcher in Yo's case. They'll just throw DeRosa into LF and he'll overachieve like the rest of that piece of crap team.

[crewcrazy]

Soriano goes down and they call up Hoffpauir? Who does Felix Pie have to kill to get a chance at playing every day, even in left field?

[areacodes]

Who does Felix Pie have to kill to get a chance at playing every day, even in left field?

 

A baseball?

[TooLiveBrew]

Felix Pie shoppers, buy now before he rots away like Murton.

[davemakovec]

Soriano goes down and they call up Hoffpauir? Who does Felix Pie have to kill to get a chance at playing every day, even in left field?

All he's done in the majors so far is a pretty good Corey Patterson impression.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I think Pie is just the next in a long line of Cub prospects that has all the tools in the world to be a good MLB player, but didn't pan out due to being rushed through their system and receiving poor developmental instruction.

[Bucky Rules]

Soriano goes down and they call up Hoffpauir? Who does Felix Pie have to kill to get a chance at playing every day, even in left field?

Well... Hoffpauir would be a start. It might require more than that though. I'm not sure.

[endaround]

Pie at AAA last year:

 

.362/.411/.563

 

Its not like hehasn't hit anywhere. But he's been bad this year and should be traded for his own good