Would you guys want Ryan Dempster?

[The Heartbreak Yid]

Just curious, because it makes sense. Hypothettically speaking, if we(Cubs) get Peavy, the Yankees or Dodgers sign C.C., Milwaukee would be a perfect spot for Dempster. He loves Chicago, and Milwaukees like an hour and change away. Hes seeking a 4 year deal, and he could be a hell of a lot cheaper than CC would be, allowing you to go out and fill a few more needs.

 

In my mind, that makes perfect sense. Yeah, CC was amazing for you guys down the stretch, but lets face it, The Crew have some holes to fill, and if they blow the hole wad on one guy, no matter how good he is, and how happy it would make the fans, would that really be good in the long run?

[Ennder]

Well the only 'holes' to fill are really 3B, 1 SP and a couple bullpen spots so not like we need a major overhaul or anything. It really comes down to the money, Dempster was the product of the Cubs defense and a prolonged hot streak imo. I still think it is more likely he is a 4+ ERA pitcher next year than a repeat of what he gave this year.

[endaround]

Yep Dempster stopped walking people. Not something I'd bet highly on continuing.

[JohnBriggs12]

"Dempster was the product of the Cub defense and a prolonged hot streak."

 

Ennder, how did the Cub defense help him get 187 K's or only allow 14 HR in 206 2/3 innings? The middle of the Cub infield was mostly Theriot and DeRosa, and those guys aren't great defenders. Neither is Ramirez.

 

Was he a "one year wonder"? I don't think so. He was a pretty good starter early in his career as a Marlin. He figures to be a solid #2 starter at least for 2 seasons, then maybe slip back to a #3 toward the back end of his contract.

 

I'd consider a 4 year deal at around $14 million per year for a guy like Dempster.

[homer]

Dempster is going to be 32 next season. At most he should get a three year deal and an expectation that he doesn't achieve what he did last year. Granted, maybe the years in the bullpen saved some wear and tear on his arm but that's an awfully pricey risk to take for MKE.

[endaround]

When was he a pretty good starter for the Marlins? His FIPs as a starter before this season: 5.86, 5.29, 4.35, 4.45, 4.72, 5.10.

[JohnBriggs12]

When was he a pretty good starter for the Marlins? His FIPs as a starter before this season: 5.86, 5.29, 4.35, 4.45, 4.72, 5.10.

In 2000, he was 14-10, 3.66 ERA, 209 K's in 226 innings, .243 opponent BA. Please explain how that doesn't qualify as "pretty good"?

 

He fell off some the next year but still went 15-12, struck out 171, and allowed about a hit per inning.

 

After that he had injury issues. I agree that 4 years is a bit of a stretch for a 32 year old, but his bullpen years might have saved some wear and tear on his arm.

[Ennder]

The Cubs were an above average defense last year, not quite as good as in 2007 but still well above average. His BBs were a career low by over half a BB per 9 at his age that is probably just a fluke. His BABIP against was .288 which is very low for a GB pitcher compared to a career rate of .309. My guess is he is really closer to that 4.45 ERA next year than the 2.96 ERA of last year.

 

ERA is just a terrible stat to be using to judge a pitcher over a single season and I would hope Melvin is smart enough to look at more reliable stats. I wouldn't be against signing him, his K rate is pretty high and he is a groundball pitcher and that is a skillset that ages pretty well. I just wouldn't be looking to pay ace type dollars for him because he is likely a 4 ERA guy next year.

[Boy Jeenius]

All peripheals aside - Stay away from one year wonders, especially when that year was in a contract year. You're gonna pay this guy like an all star(which he was) and never get the projected production.

[Mike]

I'd like to see us get Dempster to replace Torres. I agree with others that there are issues with Ryan long term as a starter, but if Sheets or C.C. stay, then use him as a closer.

[ILuvDaBush]

But at $14-15mil per year, you would have to expect K-Rod/Nathan/Papelbon numbers, not a 3.50ERA. The reason he's going to be a top money winner is because he can go 200+IP.

[JohnBriggs12]

$14 million per year isn't "ace type numbers" anymore. It's more the market for top #2. The Brewers paid $11 million per year for at best a #3 two years ago. Even given the likliehood of his ERA going forward to be in the 3.50 to 3.75 range, I submit only Gallardo is presently capable of lower than that, and he's never done it over a full season. Sheets only recorded an ERA under 3.50 three times in 8 seasons, yet he was the unquestioned ace when healthy until Sabathia showed up.

 

It all depends on whether the Brewers acquire a starter via trade. I'd rather slightly overpay for a guy like Dempster that has at least posted an ace like season and therefore is capable in theory of doing it again, than overpay for a 4th or 5th starter who's best year might be a 4.30 ERA. Giving $7 - $11 million per year to a 4th starter can be a $6-10 million per year mistake as its just as likely for a pre-arby pitcher to post similar numbers. Now if you can find like the Cardinals did last year a Lohse type real cheap, that's fine.

 

The other benefit of grabbing Dempster is that you take him off your rival.

[Ennder]

Oh I'd definitely rather sign Dempster and hope he repeats than sign someone like Byrd or Garland, I'll agree with that. $14M a year might even be reasonable for him as long as the deal is relatively short.

[Postseason2006]

As soon as the innings piled up for Dempster, he lost his control at the end of the year. Not sure I would sign him.

[CheezWizHed]

He did just switch from reliever to starter again, so the additional innings may have just wore him out at the end.

 

Of course, if he needs a break, we could use him as a closer again. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

In short, I think we really need a upper-half of the rotation starter. Dempster is one possiblity. Personally I'd prefer Penny if he becomes available.

 

Having Yo, Parra, , Bush, Suppan isn't great, but hopefully our offense can pick up the slack this year as opposed to the reverse from last year.

[rluzinski]

The going rate for a league average starting pitcher (about 4.5 ERA) these days is around $10 mil. I agree with Ennder that $14 mil a year is fine, provides that we aren't talking about a long term contract.

[Ennder]

He is looking for 5 years, $70M apparently. The $14M a year is fine but I wouldn't be too happy about the 5 years for a pitcher of his age.

[PrinceFielder28]

that's way to much money for him. I might go $10 million, but not $14 million. Plus he may not want to come here after getting a beer dumped on him during a game two years ago.

[jjfanec]

that's way to much money for him. I might go $10 million, but not $14 million. Plus he may not want to come here after getting a beer dumped on him during a game two years ago.

If Suppan got 10 million a year I would guess Dempster could get 12-15. I definitely would not want him at that price but someone short on pitching but full of money will.