Brewers claim RHP Marco Estrada, DFA Tim Dillard; Dillard clears waivers, is outrighted to AAA

[battlekow]

link

 

Estrada was a 6th-round pick of the Nationals in 2005 and was in their organization until the Brewers claimed him. MLB/MiLB stats. The claim was on the recommendation of Nashville pitching coach Rich Gale.

 

I still think Dillard can be a middle relief guy. One of my favorites for some reason. McCalvy has Gord Ash on Dillard:

He has struggled to translate his raw "stuff" -- including a heavy, sinking fastball -- into sustained big league success.

"That

may be because we've switched roles on him. He's started, he's

relieved, we've even thought about him closing out games, which didn't

seem to work out," Ash said. "There are players that just don't make

that transition as easily as others, and he has not made it.

"Hopefully, we can work out a way to keep Dillard. If we lose him, it's like making a trade [for Estrada] I guess."

Estrada's only got 20 innings in the big leagues, but from FanGraphs it looks like he throws a fastball, ~80 mph curve, and change. Fastball sits at about 90 mph. All except one of his MLB appearances was out of the bullpen, whereas he was almost exclusively a starter in the minors. That means his MiLB stats were likely accrued with a high-80s fastball, and yet he managed a decent strikeout rate, so I guess that means his offspeed stuff is solid.

 

Some stuff I found on Estrada:

 

Harry Pavlidis at the Hardball Times a month ago:

Given the lack of PITCHf/x in other professional leagues (with limited

exceptions), I decided to visit several other fishing spots around

North and Latin Americas. On my hook were four worms:

• strikeouts per 100 PA (K100)

• non-intentional walks and hit batters per 100 PA (BH100)

• Groundball rate (GB)

• Home runs per fly ball + line drive (HRFL)

The prey? Pitchers with above-average rates in each category in any minor league since 2008.

 

...

 

Estrada has a little experience pitching for the Nationals the past two

seasons, but he's failed to put up the numbers I'm looking for. His

whiff rate has been average, but otherwise—strikes, ground balls and

home runs—he's been poor. Estrada was solid in Triple-A in 2009, but he

looks like a marginal member of this list. With average strikeout and

ground ball rates in the minors, he doesn't project well.

This is from 2006, Mike Emeigh at Baseball Think Factory on sleeper pitching prospects:

Estrada separated his shoulder in spring training and didn’t pitch

until June, then after rehabbing in the GCL he made his way to

Savannah, where he couldn’t get the ball over the plate consistently

and was hammered when he did get it over. Nonetheless, the Nats thought

enough of him to send him to Hawaii for winter ball, where something

clicked; he made BA’s top-10 prospect list for HWB after holding

hitters to a .188 BA against in 30 1/3 IP for Waikiki, fanning 33. He

doesn’t throw hard (around 90 tops), but his curveball is outstanding

(when he gets it over) and he’s got a good – and improving – changeup.

He has to throw strikes consistently with something other than his

fastball if he wants to be successful.

Sounds like Ben Hendrickson.

[JohnBriggs12]

Pretty similar numbers wise. I do like that Estrada's trend seems to be in a bit more of an upward direction than Dillard's. Estrada is supposed to have a good change so he could be similar to Villanueva. I would assume he's also got one option left.

[battlekow]

I would assume he's also got one option left.

In 2008, Estrada was called up in September, so as McCalvy says, he has two options remaining.

[Invader3K]

Seems like an interesting pickup. Melvin and Co. have had a knack of finding those "diamonds in the rough." Maybe this could be another one like that.

[CheezWizHed]

Dillard was always a dark horse favorite of mine also and he has a better FB, but this looks like a good pickup. Even better if Dillard clears waivers...

 

Good to hear Smith accepted assignment also. So our AAA depth could be outstanding this year, and we could still sign Mulder....

 

edit - spelling/format

[RockCoCougars]

I'm not sure if I like this move having never seen Estrada. That said, Dillard always seemed to have good stuff and never really got a chance. I sure hope that he doesn't turn into the next Balfour somewhere else.

[Funketown]

I'm not sure if I like this move having never seen Estrada. That said, Dillard always seemed to have good stuff and never really got a chance. I sure hope that he doesn't turn into the next Balfour somewhere else.

I wouldn't worry about Dillard becoming the next Balfour. Balfour's K-rates in AAA were absurd, he was more of a high-ceiling guy who just needed to put it together in the majors. Even as a reliever, Dillard has never been overpowering in AAA. Sure, he may be able to develop into a mediocre middle reliever, but the odds on Dillard striking out 82 in 58 innings are quite low.

 

Estrada's AAA numbers are significantly more impressive than Dillard's, and he projects to be a much more valuable MLB player.

 

Besides, seeing Estrada on the back of a jersey will help us to remember everybody's favorite slap-hitting catcher.

[StearnsFTW]

I'm not sure if I like this move having never seen Estrada. That said, Dillard always seemed to have good stuff and never really got a chance. I sure hope that he doesn't turn into the next Balfour somewhere else.

I wouldn't worry about Dillard becoming the next Balfour. Balfour's K-rates in AAA were absurd, he was more of a high-ceiling guy who just needed to put it together in the majors. Even as a reliever, Dillard has never been overpowering in AAA. Sure, he may be able to develop into a mediocre middle reliever, but the odds on Dillard striking out 82 in 58 innings are quite low.

 

 

 

 

Estrada's AAA numbers are significantly more impressive than Dillard's, and he projects to be a much more valuable MLB player.

 

Besides, seeing Estrada on the back of a jersey will help us to remember everybody's favorite slap-hitting catcher.

I agree with this.......Dillard simply doesn't have the tools to become anything like Balfour. I'd say his ceiling is "decent 7th inning guy", which is no big loss if Estrada becomes a 4th type starter (longshot admittedly). I like the move even though I think it's largely irrelevant.

[endaround]

Why Estrada never got a bigger chance with the Nats amazes me. Yeah he doesn't have tools to be great but he could be serviceable and its not like the Nats have anything batter to do then to see if a 25 year old pitcher with decent minor success can be a #4 or 5 starter for you.

[battlekow]

John Sickels on Estrada from his 2010 book:

I don't know what it is, but there is something about this guy that makes me think he will surprise us someday. His stuff is OK: 87-92 MPH fastball, decent breaking ball and changeup, nothing spectacular. His control has been solid in the minors but less reliable in brief major league action. He was solid in Triple-A in 2008 and again last year, but not terrific. He's already 26, turns 27 in July. But like I said...there is just something here that I can't pin down that makes me think he could pull a surprise season on us. I wish I could be more specific, but it's not something I can quantify or even describe in anything but the vaguest terms. Grade C, but someone to keep in mind just in case.

I was just talking about how Sickels seems to be good at identifying sleepers, and obviously I like the message, but jeez, John--I paid money for this.

[Invader3K]

I read that as of last year he was a top 20 prospect in the Nationals system, so he could be something yet, it seems.

[CheezWizHed]

At worst, he is better than Nick Green and Chase Wright from last year. Any word on Dillard passing through waivers?

[PrestigeWorldwide]

John Sickels on Estrada from his 2010 book:

I don't know what it is, but there is something about this guy that makes me think he will surprise us someday. His stuff is OK: 87-92 MPH fastball, decent breaking ball and changeup, nothing spectacular. His control has been solid in the minors but less reliable in brief major league action. He was solid in Triple-A in 2008 and again last year, but not terrific. He's already 26, turns 27 in July. But like I said...there is just something here that I can't pin down that makes me think he could pull a surprise season on us. I wish I could be more specific, but it's not something I can quantify or even describe in anything but the vaguest terms. Grade C, but someone to keep in mind just in case.

I was just talking about how Sickels seems to be good at identifying sleepers, and obviously I like the message, but jeez, John--I paid money for this.

 

Read "Blink" by Malcolm Gladwell, it will all make sense http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

[bthurley19]

Dillard Clears Waivers per JSOnline

[JohnBriggs12]

Dillard clearing waivers is really no big deal. He's behind an awful lot of guys on the depth chart and he'll have to perform very well to move up. They're likely to have at least 3 pitchers on the 40 man at Nashville, Butler, Axford, and Estrada that, everything being equal, will get called up before Dillard, not to mention veterans like Loe, A J Murray, and Smith who also figure to be on that Nashville staff with a better record of major league success.

[CheezWizHed]

No, not a big deal. But just nice to know we didn't lose anything (no matter how small) in the transaction. Dillard will figure into the 40-man next year or will be somewhere else. He has the potential to put it together, but just hasn't yet. I'm glad to give him another shot with our organization.

[Harold Hutchison]

No, not a big deal. But just nice to know we didn't lose anything (no matter how small) in the transaction. Dillard will figure into the 40-man next year or will be somewhere else. He has the potential to put it together, but just hasn't yet. I'm glad to give him another shot with our organization.

The effort to make him a reliever seems to have been an issue. I wonder if he'd have done better if the Crew kept him as a starter. He was pitching well in that role for most of his career in the minors.

[Jim Goulart]

Just reminding folks about these three posts from last May, which discussed Doug Melvin's excellent management of the 40-man roster.

 

Since those posts, the Brewers have lost two players on waivers, LHP R. J. Swindle, and OF Jason Bourgeouis, and while both are still active, each has been dropped from a 40-man roster subsequently.