2010-04-07 Rockies (Cook) at Brewers (Davis), 12:10 PM CDT [Brewers win, 5-4]

[BrewerAddiction]

good time for a hr from one of our studs.

[Katuluu]

These Doug Davis games will be epic battles, often deserving of three Acts.

Awesome.

 

Now we just need laura to steal it for her sig.

[BrewerAddiction]

Carlos giving the brass a little something to think about with Soup coming back next week.

 

Not a chance. Even if he was a better SP, he isn't stretched out...

 

I believe he was just referring to whether or not he should be sent down to make room for Soup.

[topper09er]

I might be wrong, but I'm pretty sure that in the 5th inning they'd be better off not going for one run.

I never understood the logic behind this, are runs worth less in the early innings? I think in all situations except late innings and down by a lot you should take a run that you can score without getting a hit, which only happens when you have R2 0 out or R3 1 out, not exactly the most common situations.

 

 

[hawing]

Carlos giving the brass a little something to think about with Soup coming back next week.

Ah, nuts, that's right.

My afternoon student called in sick, so I've only been able to follow the last few innings in bits and pieces. Hang on, Brewers. Do we still have Badger Mutual Insurance runs this year?

[ELCABALLO45]

Prince looks like he missed a meatball, but Manny has been putting some nasty movement on his pitches.

 

How about a 1-2-3 inning for Hawkins?

[topper09er]

Do we still have Badger Mutual Insurance runs this year?

Yes, we scored a few last night

[Funketown]

I might be wrong, but I'm pretty sure that in the 5th inning they'd be better off not going for one run.

I never understood the logic behind this, are runs worth less in the early innings? I think in all situations except late innings and down by a lot you should take a run that you can score without getting a hit, which only happens when you have R2 0 out or R3 1 out, not exactly the most common situations.

 

No, but consider the following options:

 

Inning: bottom 1, tie game, [80% chance of 1 run or 20% chance of 0 runs], [30% chance of 4 runs or 70% chance of no runs]

Inning: bottom 9, tie game, [50.1% chance of 1 run, 49.9% chance of no runs], [50% chance of 2+ runs, 50% chance of 0 runs]

 

In the second case, choice 1, there is a 75.1% chance of winning the game, and for choice 2, a 75% chance of winning the game, assuming each team has a 50/50 shot in extras. Thus, the 1 run play is a better option, although the second option has a higher mean runs scored.

In the first case, I won't compute the odds on winning, but the mean runs scored in case 1 is .8, and the mean runs scored in case 2 is 1.2. In this case, the 1.2 runs is most likely the best choice.

 

*NOTE: I know these situations are not exact, reasonable, etc, but this is a quick and dirty example of why it is not always better to go for one run.

[Schlitz001]

That fastball from Hawkins was embarrassing for Seth Smith. I hope his family isn't watching.

[hawing]

Do we still have Badger Mutual Insurance runs this year?

Yes, we scored a few last night

Yep, saw them. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif What I didn't know is whether Badger Mutual is still a sponsor, hence continuing that name.

 

Diego time?.....no. Casey time?

[pitchleague]

now that our school internet is back up, I see the Crew has taken the lead! Nice!

 

Can't wait to check out the game recording when I get home.

 

Was Hawkins really "on" in the 8th? Looked effortless on Gameday.

[RobDeer 45]

I just think us as brewer fans are way to programed to sit and wait for HR's. I think we need to play more small ball and it will be a growing process for us. I personally love it!

[topper09er]

*NOTE: I know these situations are not exact, reasonable, etc, but this is a quick and dirty example of why it is not always better to go for one run.

I am definetly not saying to always go for 1 run, only in situations when you can do so without getting a hit. I am not for bunting a guy to 2nd base in the 3rd inning.

 

 

[hawing]

I just think us as brewer fans are way to programed to sit and wait for HR's.

It's a temptation more often than I'd like, but as a fan I try to resist counting on the long ball.

[zzzmanwitz]

DONG!!! DONG!!! DONG!!! DONG!!!

[Funketown]

I am definetly not saying to always go for 1 run, only in situations when you can do so without getting a hit. I am not for bunting a guy to 2nd base in the 3rd inning.

But the situation of the game still determines whether it is better to sacrifice the runner to third or not; in the fifth inning of a one run game, it is probably better to go for the big inning.

[bjkrautk]

Hearing Uecker run off the Hoffman-Helton career matchup numbers, I was a bit worried until the fly ball.

[adamb100]

BREWERS WIN!

[sheethead]

Very cool win, especially given how bleak it looked early on.

[topper09er]

1-4 hitters go 2-14 with a walk and 1 RBI and we win, very nice.

[zzzmanwitz]

Solid first series of the year for the crew. Its great winning a game when Braun and Fielder have rough games.

[Schlitz001]

That's a big series win against a tough Rockies team.

 

The bullpen was excellent today pitching 5 scoreless innings. Macha did a nice job with his managing moves today. Kotteras had some trouble blocking balls today, but that was about the only negative. I'll give DD a pass today based on some iffy calls and defensive miscues.

[Hofbraunhaus]

Great win! It's nice to win the first series of the year against a good team, especially with the next two series being against the cards and cubs.

[topper09er]

Kottaras 2 RBI with 0 hits, difference in the game.

[chadomac]

feels like we stole this one... but it helps balance things out because I thought we caught some bad luck on opening day.