Kings of the solo shot

[Bombers]

I have always wondered, based on percentage, how many of the brewers home runs are solo shots, 2 - run, 3-run, and grand slams. Then compare it to the rest of the major league teams. Is it just me or are we kings of the solo shot? I really only watch the Brewers and a little sunday night baseball too, so I may just have tunnel vision ... Maybe the Rays or Rangers or Braves hit way more solo shots than we do but to me it seems like the brewers opponents hit more multi run shots than solo shots. Again, maybe it's just me ... figured someone out there may be able to find this info.

[sheethead]

I think you will find its not out of the ordinary. The Brewers hit a lot of home runs, and many of them will be solo shots.

[bullox]

Found this nugget while doing a little searching:

 

"Jones has now hit 31 homers since making his Pirates debut on July 1, 2009, and 21 have been of the solo variety. Only two other players -- Milwaukee's Prince Fielder (24) and Florida's Dan Uggla (22) -- have hit more solo shots since Jones' 2009 debut."

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/a...id=pit&partnerId=rss_pit

[Bombers]

I agree it has to do with the amount of home runs they hit. We do hit a lot, that's why I figured you would have to look at the percentage. When fielder hits 40 or 50 HR's sure, many will be solo shots. Especially because they pitch him differently when guys are on base but I am just curious to how it looks for other teams.

[Bombers]

I did find this (http://www.fangraphs.com/.../index.php/flying-solo/) from 2006 to June 2009, averages from all of MLB. (Finding part of my own answer)

 

Solo — 56.9%

Two run — 29.1%

Three run — 11.3%

Grand slam — 2.6%

[Bombers]

Finding more of my answer (hopefully I wasn't the only one who thought this)

 

Used baseball-reference and can atleast compare to MLB averages. Not sure how this ranks against other teams but it appears we are a tad above the average. So I guess it is just my imagination

 

Solo / total = %

2010: 49 / 80 = 61%

2009: 97 / 182 = 53%

2008: 116/198 = 59%

2007: 140/231 = 61%

2006: 103/180 = 57%

 

MLB 2010: 1021 / 1786 = 57%

[joepepsi]

Prince has hit 38 homers since last July 1. So, 63% of his homers since then have been solo shots.

 

I wonder how this compares with Pujols? I suspect big sluggers don't see real good pitches when there are men on base. Someone like Craig Counsell might have a better hr rate with runners on base than Prince.

[RockCoCougars]

Cammy was the King of this domain for his Brewers tenure. 31 of his 49 homers were with the bases empty, many with the game in hand either way. He was even worse than Grissom, who hit 27 solo shots out of his 44 Brewers home runs.

[rluzinski]

I think opportunity is going to play a big role here. What % of PA are with runners on?

[TooLiveBrew]

Cammy was the King of this domain for his Brewers tenure. 31 of his 49 homers were with the bases empty, many with the game in hand either way. He was even worse than Grissom, who hit 27 solo shots out of his 44 Brewers home runs.

 

Clearly, both players had a negative protection presence (-PP), hindering their teammates' abilities to reach base

[RockCoCougars]

Cammy was the King of this domain for his Brewers tenure. 31 of his 49 homers were with the bases empty, many with the game in hand either way. He was even worse than Grissom, who hit 27 solo shots out of his 44 Brewers home runs.

 

Clearly, both players had a negative protection presence (-PP), hindering their teammates' abilities to reach base

I beg to differ. Neither of these guys were clutch. Considering Cameron hit behind Braun and Fielder, his RBI total last season was absolutely pathetic. I know many discount RBI's as a stat, but last year, Cameron had 300 plate appearances with men on base and 328 with the bases empty. This is basically a 50/50 split, yet 16 of his 24 homers were solo shots - two thirds. I'd break him down this year, but he hasn't hit one yet in 72 plate appearances, though he does have 2 (two!) RBI. It appears that though many here thought he'd play forever, Cammy is starting to break down. Letting him walk is one move that Melvin should be given some credit for.

[ELCABALLO45]

Cammy was the King of this domain for his Brewers tenure. 31 of his 49 homers were with the bases empty, many with the game in hand either way. He was even worse than Grissom, who hit 27 solo shots out of his 44 Brewers home runs.

 

Mike Cameron hit 24 homers last year.

 

17 of Cameron's homers the score was within 3 runs either way.

[dadofandrew]

The truth often doesn't fit the narrative...that's why all recollections are pointless without statistical backing.

[jerichoholicninja]

It's tough to drive the guys in front of you in when they are hitting a bunch of homeruns themselves.

[RockCoCougars]

The truth often doesn't fit the narrative...that's why all recollections are pointless without statistical backing.

OK. Here are some stats for Cammy (I know a lot of you don't put much stock into batting average, but to me when you are looking at situational splits, its telling whether or not a guy is clutch):

 

2009:

RISP: .233 batting average, 36 strikeouts in 185 PA

Runner on third, less than two outs .136 batting average

Game within 4 runs, .245 batting average, margin greater than 4, .279 batting average

'High Leverage' situations as defined by www.baseball-reference.com:  .222 batting average

 

In 2008, he was slightly better with runners on base, hitting .245 with RISP. That said, he hit much better in blowout type games: Game within 4 runs, .236 batting average, margin greater than 4, .311 batting average. He also hit a sparkling .188 in 'high leverage situations' ("PA

in the 7th or later with the batting team tied, ahead by one, or the

tying run at least on deck.").

[logan82]

So our guys hit better in games when we scored more runs? Is that what you are trying to show?

[RockCoCougars]

No, I'm showing how poorly he hit with men in scoring position and in 'clutch' situations (close games/late innings). Though it's a much smaller sample (because most games stay within three runs), the stats show that Cameron also hit much better in blowout type games either way. I think these statistics prove that my recollections of swearing at the TV time after time watching Cammy whiff in a big spot aren't completely baseless.

[logan82]

I would like to see OBP instead of BA. It wouldn't be surprising if any good hitter had a lower BA in those situations since they would be pitched around.

[Funketown]

Though it's a much smaller sample (because most games stay within three runs), the stats show that Cameron also hit much better in blowout type games either way.

Teams hit better in blowout type games. That's why they're blowout type games.

[monty57]

It would be interesting to see if the percentages were different years back, "when strikeouts mattered." It would seem that HR% may actually go down with runners in scoring position when players shorten their swing to make contact and get the runner in as opposed to always swinging for the fences, no matter the situation.

 

That theory would lead to a higher percentage of HR being multi-run shots, but an overall lower BA w/ RISP. Of course, when you have a flawed pool of data due to the steroids era, it's hard to figure what's true. The period where people stopped worrying so much about shortening their swing could likely correlate to free agency (hit more HR, get paid more), which unfortunately is probably around when steroids were making their way into the game.

[RockCoCougars]

Though it's a much smaller sample (because most games stay within three runs), the stats show that Cameron also hit much better in blowout type games either way.

Teams hit better in blowout type games. That's why they're blowout type games.

Right- but not when they are getting beat 8-0. These stats measure blowout games either way.

[crewcrazy]

I would like to see OBP instead of BA. It wouldn't be surprising if any good hitter had a lower BA in those situations since they would be pitched around.

Cameron's AVG/OBP/SLG in some of the situations being discussed:

 

RISP: .233/.368/.370 (185 PA)

Runners On: .247/.363/.393 (300 PA)

2 outs, RISP: .232/.391/.362 (87 PA)

Late & Close: .239/.386/.358 (83 PA)

 

High Leverage: .222/.351/.370 (131 PA)

Medium Leverage: .263/.354/.490 (223 PA)

Low Leverage: .253/.332/.461 (271 PA)

 

I think some people have different definitions of "clutch" here. Some may think of it solely as getting a base hit to bring a runner in, while others may see it as simply keeping the rally going by not getting out. Cameron has never been a great contact hitter, but those are some pretty damn good OBP numbers despite the low BA (and that's ignoring the fact that we're trying to declare someone as clutch or not based on only 80-90 PA's).

[RockCoCougars]

Yes, but what is the value of a walk when you are hitting ahead of guys like Jason Kendall and the pitcher? I think I would be pitched around with first base open in those situations. If the pitcher is trying to walk you, there is not much to do but take the walk, so he couldn't be faulted for that. That said, when he does presumably getting pitches to hit, you have to look at the batting average and RBI's. He wasn't getting the job done when you look at that.

[Ennder]

He wasn't getting the job done when you look at that.

 

Which most likely is just random fluctuation given the sample size and his career rates considering his high and low leverage stats are almost identical over the career. He wasn't getting the job done because of the randomness of baseball, had nothing to do with Cameron at all.

[dadofandrew]

The numbers seem to indicate Cameron hit pretty well regardless of situation.