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2011-10-13 Brewers (Wolf) at Cardinals (Lohse) - 7:05 PM CDT [Brewers win, 4-2; NLCS Tied 2-2]


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Here are some stats for a few players who may or may not start tomorrow:



VS Kyle Lohse
PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS
J Luc 2011 8 6 1 0 0 0 0 2 2 0.167 0.375 0.167 0.542
J Luc Career
10
8 3 1 0 0 0 2 2 0.375 0.500 0.500 1.000
Kottaras Career 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
Morgan 2011 6 4 2 0 0 0 1 0 1 0.500 0.400 0.500 0.900
Morgan Career
11
9 3 0 0 0 1 0 2 0.333 0.300 0.333 0.633

Hart 2011

5
5 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.200 0.200 0.400 0.600
Hart Career
17
17 2 1 0 0 1 0 3 0.118 0.118 0.176 0.294
Gomez 2011
3
2 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0.500 0.667 1.000 1.667
Gomez Career
6
5 2 1 0 0 0 1 1 0.400 0.500 0.600 1.100
Kotsay 2011
3
3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
Kotsay Career
13
13 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.077 0.077 0.077 0.154

It should be Gomez AND Morgan getting a start tomorrow. Hart is lost and is a career .118 hitter vs Lohse. And we all know Kottaras is getting the start (he has never faced Lohse before.)
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Why would it be shocking to see Hart sit? Roenicke sat Morgan for Kotsay when he was struggling. Why wouldn't he sit Hart while he's struggling? After seeing Kotsay get a start in CF nothing would shock me. In fact Counsell has great stats against Lohse...just saying.
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I think that it will be the same as tonight except that Morgan will take Kotsay's spot and the same with Kottaras and Lucroy. I'd be shocked if Hart sits.
This is what will happen and that's the best lineup. I don't want Gomez hitting for Hart. It's only 17 ABs.
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Why would it be shocking to see Hart sit? Roenicke sat Morgan for Kotsay when he was struggling. Why wouldn't he sit Hart while he's struggling? After seeing Kotsay get a start in CF nothing would shock me. In fact Counsell has great stats against Lohse...just saying.
I'm not stating what I think is the best lineup, I'm going by what RRR will do. No way does he sit Hart tomorrow. I could see him doing the Gomez in center/Morgan to right switch if Hart continues to look clueless in a few at bats, but I'd be stunned if he wasn't in the lineup.
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Ideal lineup tomorrow:

1. Morgan
2. JHJ
3. Braun
4. Fielder
5. Weeks
6. Kotsay
7. Betancourt
8. Kottaras
9. Wolf

I would prefer having Kotsay instead of Gomez as Gomez is way to aggressive and with Lohse that is not a good strategy. Might want to switch JHJ and Morgan in the lineup.
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How about we stick with the lineup that won us 96 games this season?

It's much more fun to overthink this stuff. Never mind that it's a good way for your team to get in trouble. Overthinking in October is tradition. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

(And, no, this isn't a shot at anyone in this thread. It's a shot at the people who do the overthinking, and I don't mean the fans.)

Wearing my heart on my sleeve since birth. Hopefully, it's my only crime.

 

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For a board that talks about small sample sizes so much I amazed by some of the knee-jerk reactions people are having to a couple bad games but some guys. Now maybe the guys who are calling for the changes aren't the ones talking about small sample sizes. I just find it interesting
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The playoffs might not be "magic," but they're certainly different. During the season, you will be able to get a large sample set, so individual game performance fluctuations will average out, and the better player will have better numbers at the end of the year most of the time. In a win-or-go-home short series, that's not necessarily the case. In any one game, any one player can outperform any other player.

 

Of course, you should always start with the premise of putting the most talent on the field, so in general sticking with what got you there (as Flood Pants noted) would be the best starting point. However, that's based on the premise that we've "optimized our roster" this season, which isn't necessarily the case (see Hairston vs McGehee). Also, there can be other variables in effect. For instance, a somewhat minor issue which wouldn't effect decisions during the season may elicit more concern in the playoffs. Maybe Weeks is still hurt enough that it's effecting his game. Maybe nerves are effecting some players. Maybe Marcum has "hit a wall" with innings pitched. These could be things the managerial staff has access to which we will never know.

 

Also, all other factors staying the same, it may make some sense in a win-or-die situation to go with the variable with the least fluctuation, which is probably defense. In that case, it was a terrible decision to put Kotsay in CF, when the offensive difference among Kotsay, Gomez and Morgan was a toss-up, but the defensive side was a no-brianer that Kotsay was the worst option. In valuing starting Gomez/Morgan vs. Morgan/Hart or Gomez/Hart, you'd have to weigh the probability of each player helping the team offensivly and the probability of each player hurting the team defensively in one game... not an easy task. Over a season, it's no doubt that Hart should play nearly every day. Without any knowledge of the players' physical and mental states, it's very hard for an outside observer to make an informed decision.

 

Personally, it wouldn't bother me if Roenicke posted the roster PEM listed in post #1. At least I could understand the reasoning, which I can't say about last night's "go by the gut" roster.

"The most successful (people) know that performance over the long haul is what counts. If you can seize the day, great. But never forget that there are days yet to come."

 

~Bill Walsh

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Based on my assumption that Hart will play no matter what, here is how I would write the lineup card tonight:

 

1. Morgan CF

2. Hart RF

3. Fielder 1B

4. Braun LF

5. Hairston 3B

6. Weeks 2B

7. Betancourt SS

8. Kottaras C

9. Wolf P

 

 

Just a few flip flops, basically with the goal of getting to Lohse early (namely in the first).

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I am tired of seeing poor defense in CF. Give me some Carlos Gomez out there tonight.

 

Apparently Hart does have some kind of real sickness right now. It was mentioned on the FSN post game show. I think Hart will get the night off. Would rather have Morgan in RF, would be okay with Kotsay.

 

Set the batting lineup however you like, I don't care.

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I am tired of seeing poor defense in CF. Give me some Carlos Gomez out there tonight.

 

Apparently Hart does have some kind of real sickness right now. It was mentioned on the FSN post game show. I think Hart will get the night off. Would rather have Morgan in RF, would be okay with Kotsay.

 

Set the batting lineup however you like, I don't care.

OK, I'll bite

 

1. Morgan RF

2. Weeks 2B

3. Fielder 1B

4. Braun LF

5. Hairston 3B

6. Betancourt SS

7. Gomez CF

8. Kottaras C

9. Wolf P

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Why would it be shocking to see Hart sit? Roenicke sat Morgan for Kotsay when he was struggling. Why wouldn't he sit Hart while he's struggling? After seeing Kotsay get a start in CF nothing would shock me. In fact Counsell has great stats against Lohse...just saying.
Because RR only makes bad moves, not good ones.
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I am tired of seeing poor defense in CF. Give me some Carlos Gomez out there tonight.

 

Apparently Hart does have some kind of real sickness right now. It was mentioned on the FSN post game show. I think Hart will get the night off. Would rather have Morgan in RF, would be okay with Kotsay.

 

Set the batting lineup however you like, I don't care.

OK, I'll bite

 

1. Morgan RF

2. Weeks 2B

3. Fielder 1B

4. Braun LF

5. Hairston 3B

6. Betancourt SS

7. Gomez CF

8. Kottaras C

9. Wolf P

I'd have the same guys but I'd stick with Weeks in the 5 spot and Hairston 2nd and I'd have Kottaras 7th and Gomez 8th. Weeks has failed to get the big hit in the 5 hole, but Hairston is a table setter, not a 5 hitter. At some point Weeks has to get a big hit in this series if they are going to survive.

 

Having Morgan and Gomez both in the OF can only help Wolf. The last thing they need are more balls that should be caught going for extra bases.

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Here is what I expect:

 

1. Weeks 2B

2. Plush CF

3. Fielder 1B

4. Braun LF

5. Hairston 3B

6. Kotsay RF

7. Betancourt SS

8. Kottaras C

9. Wolf P

 

RR has a hunch that Weeks will bat better out of the leadoff spot. There is hardly any variance in Lohse's numbers vs righties and lefties this season (and very little over his career), so maybe that could give RR the hunch that having a Braun/GoGo/Morgan outfield would be beneficial.

Formerly Andersoc420
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