2011-10-13 Brewers (Wolf) at Cardinals (Lohse) - 7:05 PM CDT [Brewers win, 4-2; NLCS Tied 2-2]

[PrinceEatMeat]

Why would it be shocking to see Hart sit? Roenicke sat Morgan for Kotsay when he was struggling. Why wouldn't he sit Hart while he's struggling? After seeing Kotsay get a start in CF nothing would shock me. In fact Counsell has great stats against Lohse...just saying.

Because RR only makes bad moves, not good ones.

Lol, that's a great point.

[Ennder]

How about we stick with the lineup that won us 96 games this season?

We didn't start any lineup more than 18 times this season. The one we started most included McGehee and Gomez. That is probably why.

 

We used 75 different lineups and 105 different batting orders on the year so hard to find the one that led to 96 wins.

[joepepsi]

I'd have the same guys but I'd stick with Weeks in the 5 spot and Hairston 2nd and I'd have Kottaras 7th and Gomez 8th. Weeks has failed to get the big hit in the 5 hole, but Hairston is a table setter, not a 5 hitter. At some point Weeks has to get a big hit in this series if they are going to survive.

Weeks is 3 for 11 with a walk in this series. He has 2 runs, 2 rbis, a homer and a double against the Cardinals. His OPS is .970. Yes he was terrible against the DBacks, but to say he's "failed to get a bit hit in the 5 hole" just hasn't been true in this series.

[NievesNoNO]

1. Braun lf

2. Morgan rf

3. Weeks 2b

4. Fielder 1b

5. Hairston 3b

6. Kottaras c

7. Yuni ss

8. Wolf p

9. Gomez cf

[pretendastronaut]

http://www.ishouldhavebeenanastronaut.com/brewfan/2011/pitchers/nlcs/game4.jpg

Randy Wolf

Wolf - 2-0 with a 1.12 ERA in 2 second-half starts vs Cards

Cardinals vs. Wolf
Wolf Game Log

Kyle Lohse

Lohse will be pitching on extended rest -- 11 days -- but that hasn't been a problem for him this year. In fact, at times it's seemed to benefit him. Despite a 1-2 record, he was very effective against Milwaukee in 2011.

Brewers vs. Lohse
Lohse Game Log

Starting Lineups

1. CF Nyjer Morgan
   
2. RF Mark Kotsay
   
3. LF Ryan Braun
   
4. 1B Prince Fielder
   
5. 2B Rickie Weeks
   
6. 3B Jerry Hairston Jr.
   
7. SS Yuniesky Betancourt
   
8. C George Kottaras
   
9. LHP Randy Wolf
   

1. SS Rafael Furcal
   
2. RF Allen Craig
   
3. 1B Albert Pujols
   
4. 3B David Freese
   
5. LF Matt Holliday
   
6. C Yadier Molina
   
7. 2B Ryan Theriot
   
8. CF Jon Jay
   
9. RHP Kyle Lohse
   

Media Coverage

http://www.ishouldhavebeenanastronaut.com/brewfan/2011/media/media-tbs.jpg

Brewerfan Game Chat

MLB GameDay | ESPN GameCast | 620 WTMJ Affiliates

Fan Sites

Cards Talk

[GoudaBrew]

Go get 'em, WOOF!

[afeter]

In touch with the ground

I'm on the hunt I'm after you

Smell like I sound I'm lost in a crowd

And I'm hungry like the wolf

Straddle the line in discord and rhyme

I'm on the hunt I'm after you

Mouth is alive with juices like wine

And I'm hungry like the wolf

http://images.yuku.com/image/png/74d1519c8d04e9240ad6682f357034db8bf1db4_t.jpg

[pretendastronaut]

http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/I/31-Ql-fKxzL._SX385_.jpg

[Mike2k33]

Forget everything. Play baseball and accomplish the task at hand.

 

Let's Go Brewers!

[ttsather]

A friend of mine has a nine-wolf t-shirt (similar to the one above) that I've asked him to wear.

Nine wolves! One for each shutout inning.

[saget]

http://i51.tinypic.com/2a92l55.jpg

[rluzinski]

The playoffs might not be "magic," but they're certainly different. During the season, you will be able to get a large sample set, so individual game performance fluctuations will average out, and the better player will have better numbers at the end of the year most of the time. In a win-or-go-home short series, that's not necessarily the case. In any one game, any one player can outperform any other player.

 

Of course, you should always start with the premise of putting the most talent on the field, so in general sticking with what got you there (as Flood Pants noted) would be the best starting point. However, that's based on the premise that we've "optimized our roster" this season, which isn't necessarily the case (see Hairston vs McGehee). Also, there can be other variables in effect. For instance, a somewhat minor issue which wouldn't effect decisions during the season may elicit more concern in the playoffs. Maybe Weeks is still hurt enough that it's effecting his game. Maybe nerves are effecting some players. Maybe Marcum has "hit a wall" with innings pitched. These could be things the managerial staff has access to which we will never know.

 

Also, all other factors staying the same, it may make some sense in a win-or-die situation to go with the variable with the least fluctuation, which is probably defense. In that case, it was a terrible decision to put Kotsay in CF, when the offensive difference among Kotsay, Gomez and Morgan was a toss-up, but the defensive side was a no-brianer that Kotsay was the worst option. In valuing starting Gomez/Morgan vs. Morgan/Hart or Gomez/Hart, you'd have to weigh the probability of each player helping the team offensivly and the probability of each player hurting the team defensively in one game... not an easy task. Over a season, it's no doubt that Hart should play nearly every day. Without any knowledge of the players' physical and mental states, it's very hard for an outside observer to make an informed decision.

Pretty much anything you mentioned is the same whether it's the regular season or playoffs. You say less fluctuation is more important with a win or go home game but that's not true. If the odds of winning are the same, it doesn't really matter.

In the end, you are trying to give your team the best chance of winning. You do that by playing your best players.

 

[adamb100]

Alright we're down but we're not out, not yet anyway.

 

Wolf cannot give up runs in the first inning. Our offense needs to wake up from yesterday's slumber and score runs. If Wolf can even pitch at an ok level and we can score runs then we have a good chance of winning and coming back home for a game.

 

We lose tonight then we're screwed almost.

 

Go Brewers.

[Crew2323]

Hopefully this will give Wolf some good mojo for tonight.

[Crew2323]

Tonight's Lineup

 

Morgan CF

Kotsay RF

Braun LF

Fielder 1B

Weeks 2B

Hairston 3B

Betancourt SS

Kottaras C

Wolf SP

[FidoMcCokefiend]

If you really need to play Kotsay over Hart, I'd move Hairston to 2nd, Kotsay to 5th, and Weeks to 6th.

[SconnieKid]

Just give me GoGo in that enormous CF and move JHJ to 5th. I don't care about the rest.

 

Anyone else think Kottaras could catch Marcum in 6? I watched a bit on Baseball Tonight where they were talking about the awful communication between Luc and Marcum before the Goldschmidt HR and again in game 2 of the NLCS.

[Bombers]

How about we stick with the lineup that won us 96 games this season?

 

So weeks - 1, hart -2/5 and mcgehee -5/6? ... Just saying we have had like 4 different regular lineups this year. I couldn't even tell you who had the most AB's at each spot in the order

[brewerjamie15]

Must wake bats!

 

http://detectovision.com/pics/jobu2.jpg

[GormanHarvey]

Tonight's Lineup

 

Morgan CF

Kotsay RF

Braun LF

Fielder 1B

Weeks 2B

Hairston 3B

Betancourt SS

Kottaras C

Wolf SP

 

 

Is this actually the line up? Or just your guess?

[pretendastronaut]

That's the real lineup.

[owbc]

I can't really argue with that lineup considering how awful Hart has been and that Kotsay actually looked good at the plate last night. At some point you can only make so many switches--some of the struggling players need to wake up or the season's over tomorrow.

 

That being said, I am very confident that they will win tonight.

[StearnsFTW]

If you really need to play Kotsay over Hart, I'd move Hairston to 2nd, Kotsay to 5th, and Weeks to 6th.

I agree. Obviously RR didn't. Not that huge of a deal.

 

I know Hart's been cold, but I would still play him every game.

[TooLiveBrew]

So Corey is that sick? What'd he contract?

[PrinceEatMeat]

I knew Roenicke would sit Hart. Can't say I'm too upset with it. Don't lose much with Kotsay in RF, and he looked good at the plate yesterday. Glad Morgan's out in CF tonight though.