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BOS / LAD megatrade


torts

a-gonz

beckett

crawford

Punto

and $260 of the $271 million they're owed

 

for

 

James Loney

Jerry Sands

Ivan DeJesus Jr.

Rubby De La Rosa

Allen Webster

 

thats nuts

Posted: July 10, 2014, 12:30 AM

PrinceFielderx1 Said:

If the Brewers don't win the division I should be banned. However, they will.

 

Last visited: September 03, 2014, 7:10 PM

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I posted this in the MLB news thread but I might as well post it here too.

 

Here's what I have on the payroll the Dodgers are taking on, not including this season, and their Zips projections just for fun:

 

Crawford: 5 years, $102.5 million, .283/.323/.446.

Gonzalez: 6 years, $127 million, .301/.369/.504.

Beckett: 2 years, $31.5 million, 3.86 ERA/ 4.04 FIP.

Punto: 1 year, $1.5 million, .229/.327/.271.

 

I'm not sure if the Red Sox are picking up any of these contracts. Crawford won't even be able to play next season as far as I know. Gonzalez's power has been way down ever since leaving San Diego.

 

To me this trade looks to be comically bad for the Dodgers. Am I missing something or is this just a horrible horrible trade? Sounds like Boston is only sending LAD about $12 million.

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Wow, what a revolting trade for the Dodgers. This new ownership obviously has money burning a hole in their pockets. It'd be like buying a new bakery and then going out and buying two warehouses full of stale Wonder bread. What is the delay, are they waiting for medical reports on John Lackey or something?
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Gonzalez is the only guy worth his AAV, but he's signed until he's 36. The Dodgers are quickly setting up a gigantic mess. It's like a stupid kid who just received a large inheritance and promptly wastes half of it. I can't believe Boston actually got better than junk prospects to boot.

 

According to mlbtraderumors, the Dodgers have "$193.75MM in contracts for next season, $133.6MM for 2014, $90MM for 2015, $88.65MM for 2015, and another $90MM for 2016."

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Crawford will play next year. The recovery time for a position player is 8 months IIRC.

This is correct. Crawford is having Tommy John surgery. I read it was 8-9 months for a hitter, which puts him coming back around May or so.

 

Ah okay, I thought it was more of a 12 month recovery, but it makes sense if it's a bit less for position players. So maybe that's what the $12 million represents, because that's about 100 games of Crawford's salary and that's about what is missed. Now that it would make a difference if the $12 million were for tolerating Nick Punto, but maybe that's how they came up with the number.

 

I really hope this is how the "new" Dodgers operate. Gonzalez has a good shot at outperforming the contract, but he's already 30 years old and with 6 years/$127 million remaining he's going to have to find his power stroke again to make it worthwhile. Crawford is pretty much an albatross at this point. What would he get on the open market, something like 1/$15 or 3/$30 at this point? Beckett will probably be almost worth the contract as he isn't owed that much, and maybe he's a 3.50 ERA pitcher in the NL West.

 

If the Red Sox got nothing in return and sent about $50MM to the Dodgers, they'd probably still be happy with this trade (that's pegging Gonzalez and Beckett are getting market wages, Crawford at $50MM above his market wage, just eyeballing things). Webster is considered a top 5 prospect in the Dodgers system and he's been very effective in AA this season. I'd never heard of Jerry Sands but in ~500 PA's for their AAA club he has a ~.900 OPS this season. I don't know how great the park effects are out there, but he seems like a solid pickup. De Jesus is a decent 2B prospect.

 

If Crawford cannot recover from his injuries and Gonzalez does not continue to hit as well as he has historically, this trade will look absolutely horrendous for the Dodgers. It already looks horrible, and I don't think anybody outside of ESPN and the Dodgers' front office thinks this trade was anything but dumb from the Dodgers' perspective.

 

Red Sox fans should be thrilled right now.

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I can't decide if this is worse than Vernon Wells for Mike Napoli, because Gonzalez still has a chance to become an elite player again. On the other hand, he's having a pretty mediocre year. So yeah, this is worse than Wells for Napoli.
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The Wells trade was pretty similar to throwing $60MM down the toilet. Everybody except the Angels front office realized Wells' production would be pretty close to replacement level, at best average.

 

Paying $260MM for these players without any prospect return is probably at least $60MM too much. Sending them a decent group of players as well makes this trade pretty ludicrous.

 

So, while this trade has a higher probability of paying off for the Dodgers (basically Crawford needs to come back and be an elite player again, the Gonzalez and Beckett contracts aren't too cumbersome), it's also not unlikely that these guys end up only contributing about $100MM of value on the field over the course of these contracts (Crawford can't really recover, Beckett is an average SP, and Gonzalez is a good but not elite 1B if he doesn't get his power stroke back).

 

I'm not sure which is worse, but I'm leaning toward the Wells trade.

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Boston just shaved 2-3 years off their rebuild...amazing.

 

The Dodgers better win soon with this team...their window is already close to closing. The thing is I still don't hear that many people getting excited about them.I see a lot of people with stupid money out here...I guess these guys are no different.

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Brewer Fanatic Contributor

The free agent market isn't very deep this winter, so I guess the Dodgers decided to spend their money during the season.

 

I think Gonzalez will help for a while, but if Crawford doesn't bounce back, this will be the worst financial move in MLB history.

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I love it when National League teams make bad trades. Or at least what I think are bad trades. How will they afford Greinke now?

 

I don't believe the Dodgers were ever going to be in on Greinke. They wanted Hamels more but couldn't get him in a trade and he then signed an extension with the Phillies. I don't believe this is a bad trade the Dodgers didn't really give up much of anything prospect wise. They gave up Loney who has been a disappointment and a couple of prospects who are not even all that good. I wouldn't even put them in the top 25 of the Brewers current prospects. Not really a good return for the Red Sox other than they killed a lot of their payroll.

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This may look bad to us lowly Midwest, small market folk but how did all those overpaid Yankee teams of the late 90's and early 2000's fair? If you have lots of money to spend and lots of money coming in why not do something ridiculous like this? If Dee Gordon becomes just an average shortstop the Dodgers really don't have any holes they need to fill for a few years.
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Wow, what a revolting trade for the Dodgers. This new ownership obviously has money burning a hole in their pockets. It'd be like buying a new bakery and then going out and buying two warehouses full of stale Wonder bread. What is the delay, are they waiting for medical reports on John Lackey or something?

 

No joke. Everyone should have saw this coming when the group that bought the Dodgers spent $2.3 billion, and the next closest was "only" $1.3 billion. It seems like they are spending money just to spend money at this point.

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T minus how long before the cost of Dodgers tickets doubles?

That's one thing McCourt already took care of...and another reason attendance is down. If anything they need to wake up and lower them...and get rid of those half empty dugout seats that make everyone watching think no one is there. They need to use variable pricing the way the Brewers have done and pack that place to generate some long lost excitement.

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I find it funny that Boston and Miami swapped Beckett and Hanley Ramirez in 2005 and were now both in season 2012 trades to the dodgers ...

 

I also agree that the dodgers are being very NBA -ish ... I hope this turns out bad for them

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Theo Epstein must be pissed... the timebomb in Boston was defused... unless the plan all along was to blowup an NL major market team all along just in time for a Cubs WS run... what a sneaky sneak

Posted: July 10, 2014, 12:30 AM

PrinceFielderx1 Said:

If the Brewers don't win the division I should be banned. However, they will.

 

Last visited: September 03, 2014, 7:10 PM

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Remember a couple of years ago when everyone was upset about the uneven playing field in MLB when Boston traded for and signed Gonzalez because San Diego knew they were going to lose him, and signed Crawford away from the Rays? Remeber prior to last season when the Red Sox were being touted as one of the most talented teams in baseball history?

 

Even in baseball, where millions of dollars are thrown around like nothing, being financially sound is important. What we see in this trade is what I was/am worried about when people say things like "break the bank" for Greinke, or that extending Hart is a no-brainer. When you get financially stuck, it seems good to trade mega talent away for a boatload of scrap. How would we feel in a year or two if we traded Braun and Gallardo for James Loney? Would we still say "we fleeced them because we saved money?"

 

We could very well have been in Boston's shoes if we had extended Greinke and held onto Ramirez, Hart, Braun, Gallardo, etc. If this can happen to Boston with their cash flow, it can certainly happen in Milwaukee if Melvin/Attanasio aren't careful. Long-term, big money, guaranteed deals can be dangerous.

"The most successful (people) know that performance over the long haul is what counts. If you can seize the day, great. But never forget that there are days yet to come."

 

~Bill Walsh

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