Really interesting Posnanski article regarding 2006 top prospects

[StearnsFTW]

http://joeposnanski.blogspot.com/2012/12/prospects-2006.html?m=1

[brewcrewdue80]

Would be great to read every year's articles on top prospects. He has it as aroudn 50/50 success to fail in an organization's top prospects end results.

[StearnsFTW]

Would be great to read every year's articles on top prospects. He has it as aroudn 50/50 success to fail in an organization's top prospects end results.

 

 

I agree. I just found it interesting because it illustrates just how often "top" prospects fail. It's a lot more often than people think.

[jjfanec]

Fielder is a hit but when he says Fielder should be the number 1 prospect or Braun I disagree. It is Braun hands down. Braun has a had a better WAR. If you want to break it down into specific stats Braun is a better defender, better base stealer, has a better career OPS (while 30 points higher in slugging). I think Prince is a very good player but he simply isnt as good as Braun

[Outlander]

Fielder was the No. 1 prospect at the time, he says the best actual prospect was Fielder or Braun.

[TheCrew07]

Would be great to read every year's articles on top prospects. He has it as aroudn 50/50 success to fail in an organization's top prospects end results.

 

 

I agree. I just found it interesting because it illustrates just how often "top" prospects fail. It's a lot more often than people think.

 

Actually I posted a ton of data about that very issue on the trade forum this summer, and those numbers are way off. Here's the post in the SS thread. Here's another post in the Greinke thread where I hit the subject again.

 

I think most people who frequent this forum are educated on the numbers.

[jjfanec]

Fielder was the No. 1 prospect at the time, he says the best actual prospect was Fielder or Braun.

 

I understand that but I just dont think Fielder or Braun is the right answer. It is Braun. He is the better player.

[CheezWizHed]

I think most people who frequent this forum are educated on the numbers.

 

True. But we are the minority. Most fans expect NFL draft success, not MLB draft success.

 

I remember a thread where someone (here) was complaining about the number of 4th round draft picks that the Brewers "miss" on. I think my response was that in 4-5 years of 4th round draft picks (drafted more than 5 years ago), there was only 1 or 2 names that were familiar as MLB players.

[Outlander]

Fielder was the No. 1 prospect at the time, he says the best actual prospect was Fielder or Braun.

 

I understand that but I just dont think Fielder or Braun is the right answer. It is Braun. He is the better player.

 

I guess I don't have a problem having him say Fielder or Braun. While I think Braun will end up with the better career both are superstar players with a chance to reach the hall of fame and both relatively young still so it certainly isn't a certainty that Braun will end up the better prospect.

[DHonks]

cubsdie, this is why I don't always advocate dealing for prospects. Proven big leaguers are almost always better than prospects. A study a few years ago found that while the value of 3-for-1 prospect-star trades is pretty even at the time of the trade, in the long run the team getting the star almost always comes out ahead.

[StearnsFTW]

cubsdie, this is why I don't always advocate dealing for prospects. Proven big leaguers are almost always better than prospects. A study a few years ago found that while the value of 3-for-1 prospect-star trades is pretty even at the time of the trade, in the long run the team getting the star almost always comes out ahead.

 

I am a reformed prospect hound. It's a lottery ticket. I prefer the proven major leaguer route now.

[Ennder]

To be fair they aren't failing on top prospects as much as they used to even 6 or 7 years ago. They have identified more and more of the little flaws that hold a player back.