ARTICLE: Ben Sheets, Beyond the W-L

[Brian the Automator]

www.brewerfan.net/ViewArt...icleId=216

 

Thanks to rluzinski for providing this article.

[rluzinski]

I really wanted to use the phrase "eye of the tiger" in the article somewhere but it just didn't make the cut.

 

Seriously though, I feel the article isn't worded very well, so if anyone has any questions please let me know.

[DHonks]

the article makes sense. What's also interesting is that Sheets is arguably our best bunter, so while he doesn't hit, he does move runners over for someone else to knock them in.

 

Part of the problem is that Ben faced some difficult matchups this year. It always seemed like he faced another team's stud.

[xisxisxis]

Do you covet EDR's Oxen or Slave?

 

Do you drink Milk? Is it whole milk?

[TauPentaRei]

Agreeing with DHonks above...

 

To be labeled the "ace" of a staff, you simply must be the dominant starter of the staff. This more often than not means you are facing another team's ace.

 

What the article did not provide was the amount of runs Ben allowed per category of run support.

 

Case in point: Marlins Mets - Willis vs P. Martinez last night. 2-1. Both aces. Is Ben as talented as Dontrelle, Pedro, Felix, Randy? I don't believe so with a B fastball, A curveball and otherwise empty toolbox.

 

I've always thought of starting opening day with our #5 starter, in order to give Ben a better shot every time out:

 

#5 vs #1

#1 vs #2

#2 vs #3

etc.

[rluzinski]

What the article did not provide was the amount of runs Ben allowed per category of run support.

 

You mean, does Sheets pitch "up" to the other stud pitcher? I don't really think the level of pitching competition has any bearing on Sheets' performances.

 

Obviously, Sheets had a VERY good ERA in 2004 and a good one this year. Here's a link to Sheet's game logs, plus some neato graphs:

 

LINK

[BuckyTuba]

nice article

[DHonks]

TauPentaRei,

the problem with not starting Ben on opening day is that you diminish your chance of winning that day. Throw in that you want to maximize his starts, and getting him out there ASAP is key.

 

As for a "B" fastball, that's what most of his career strikeouts have come via, so I don't consider a legit 97 mph fastball anything but terrific.

 

Also, as the seasons move on, it's largely luck that leads to who pitchers match up against. Keeping guys on 4 days rests is the priority rather than looking at matchups. Perhaps a matchup-based team would fare alright, however, simply having a dominant staff seems the likeliest way to have an increased probability of winning

[RyDogg66]

Case in point: Marlins Mets - Willis vs P. Martinez last night. 2-1. Both aces. Is Ben as talented as Dontrelle, Pedro, Felix, Randy? I don't believe so with a B fastball, A curveball and otherwise empty toolbox

 

Ben only has a B fastball?? Doesnt he sit between 92-94?? And cant he reach back and grab 96 every once in a while??

 

I'd place Sheets in the top5 of NL starters and top 10 in Baseball.

 

Look at every team's best starter...

 

Randy Johnson (Sheets is probably better at this point)

Schilling (Ditto)

Halladay

Kazmir

Eric Bedard?

 

Mark Buerhle

Johan Santana

Cliff Lee

Jeremy Bonderman

Zack Grienke

 

Rich Harden

Barry Zito?

Feliz Hernandez

Bartolo Colon

Texas??

 

Pedro Martinez

Tim Hudson

John Smoltz

Brett Myers?

Dontrelle Willis

Livan Hernandez?

 

Roger Clemens

Roy Oswalt

Mak Prior

Chris Carpenter

Oliver Perez

The REds?

 

Jake Peavy

Jason Scmidt

Jeff Francis

Javier Vazquez

Jeff Weaver?

 

Are there ten on the list you'd rather have or who you'd be just as comfortable with at this point?

 

In no order I'd consider these guys

 

Roy Oswalt

Jake Peavy

Johan Santana

Rich Harden

Tim Hudson

Chris Carpenter

Roger Clemens

Roy Halladay

Mark Prior

Ben Sheets

[rluzinski]

It doesn't make sense to change matchups around if your goal is try try and maximize wins for the team. You help probabilities one place and hurt them in another. You are better off maximizing the innings of your best pitchers.

[TauPentaRei]

Excellent list of aces RyDogg!

 

Time to go shopping...

 

First Tier Aces I would rather have:

 

1) Oswalt

2) F. Hernandez

3) D. Willis

4) Santana

5) Peavy

6) Healthy Prior

7) Pedro

http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/glasses.gif Harden

9) Sabathia

10) Colon

 

Second Tier Aces:

I put Ben on par with Halladay (injury prone Cy), Johnson (geriatric Cy), C. Lee, Francis, Bonderman, etc...

 

Has Ben lived up to his (squash the Cubans) hype?

[brettac1]

Santana is the best pitcher in baseball. Peavy is close. Felix will be. There's no way I'd take Oswalt over any of them. Healthy Prior doesn't really exist anymore thanks to the lack of a Smart Dusty. There's no way I'd take Colon or Sabathia over Sheets, and I doubt that I'd take Pedro at this stage in his career.

 

Halladay really isn't "injury prone" per se, it's not like he's had arm injuries. They've been freak injuries like being hit with a batted ball. Before that he was the most durable pitcher in the game.

[TauPentaRei]

That is why lists like this occur most effectively during outlandish conversations belly up at a bar.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

Quote:

---

Part of the problem is that Ben faced some difficult matchups this year. It always seemed like he faced another team's stud.

---

 

This is what I assumed as well. As it turns out, he has faced a wide variety of competition. Out of his 22 starts he has faced "stud" competition only 6 times (Oswalt, Halladay, Zambrano, L.Hernandez, Mulder, & J.Schmidt). The Brewers were 3-3 in those games.

 

He has faced a surprising high number of rookies and average to below average pitchers:

 

O.Perez, Suppan (twice), W. Rodriguez (twice), D.Thompson, Pavano, Lidle (twice), Rusch, Wood, S.Olsen, K.Davies, Gosling, A.Cook, and H. Ramirez.

 

Not sure if this is typical or if it is because of his injury earlier in the year that got him out of the normal rotation order.

[rluzinski]

Out of his 22 starts he has faced "stud" competition only 6 times

 

That's 27% of his starts..... that's alot. I don't think it's typical for a team's #1 to always face another's #1. It's probably close to random.

 

Sheet's hasn't had a great record in the last couple years because the Brewers haven't scored for him. It's really as simple as that.

[RyDogg66]

Tau, take a closer look at Colon and Sabathia. There is no way I'd take them ahead of Sheets.

 

Colon is having a bounce back year but the wins are not really relevant since it depends on run support. Last year he had an ERA over 5.00.

 

Sabathia is horribly inconsistent. His ERA is over 4.00 for the 2nd time in 3 years and his K to BB ration is less than 2:1.

 

Sheets is a legit #1 starter. Top 10 in baseball.

[ja002h]

This more often than not means you are facing another team's ace.

 

Is this really true? It seems like after the first couple weeks, rotations get all jumbled around and it really doesn't matter anymore.

[rluzinski]

Wow, I think I just got the record for the shortest time an article was the "front page" one http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif