Magic Number

PinaMadness · September 1, 2021

Reds are in a freefall. I think I can now safely say that the division is in the bag.

Unless of course the Cards go on an epic run in September/October all the way to a World Series championship just like 2011.

MrTPlush · September 1, 2021

Reds are in a freefall. I think I can now safely say that the division is in the bag.

Unless of course the Cards go on an epic run in September/October all the way to a World Series championship just like 2011.

Reported

Madhawk23 · September 1, 2021

At this stage, are we pretty safe to say that the division race is just about wrapped up?

We could play .500 baseball the rest of the way by going 15-14 (which for this team and the way they are playing, would probably be a major disappointment), and the Reds would have to go 25-3 just to finish with the same record as us. The Cardinals you ask? Well, they would have to go 28-3 just to tie us in that scenario.

Let's say the wheels fall off and we stumble to a 12-17 finish in Sept/Oct. In that scenario, the Reds would still need to finish 22-6 just to tie us with the Cards going 25-6 to tie us.

It's becoming almost academic at this stage, isn't it?

SomewhereInTime · September 1, 2021

At this stage, are we pretty safe to say that the division race is just about wrapped up?

We could play .500 baseball the rest of the way by going 15-14 (which for this team and the way they are playing, would probably be a major disappointment), and the Reds would have to go 25-3 just to finish with the same record as us. The Cardinals you ask? Well, they would have to go 28-3 just to tie us in that scenario.

Let's say the wheels fall off and we stumble to a 12-17 finish in Sept/Oct. In that scenario, the Reds would still need to finish 22-6 just to tie us with the Cards going 25-6 to tie us.

It's becoming almost academic at this stage, isn't it?

Well yeah, that's traditionally when you break out the magic number countdown. A race in the standings is always in one of four categories:

1. Competitive Race

2. Chasing team is out of it (Would take a massive run to comeback)

3. Near mathematical elimination (Needing to go 25-3 while the team your chasing needs to go .500 or worse)

4. Mathematically over

We are at number 3.

dlk9s · September 1, 2021

At this stage, are we pretty safe to say that the division race is just about wrapped up?

There's no need to hedge even a little bit. It's over. Now we're just waiting to see if we're #1 or #2 and how the other teams will fall into place.

HarveysWBs · September 1, 2021

[sarcasm]I'm sensing a lot of April 14th, 1912 energy on this board right now. Might be time to cool it or take it to the optimism thread...[/sarcasm]

But seriously, this thing is over. I'm enjoying the countdown, and as others have said, what is shaping up to be the strongest team in franchise history, certainly the best I've ever seen. What a ride this is going to be for the next month plus.