Wisconsin Football 2022- The Jim Leonhard Show ends, the Luke Fickell era begins

[areacodes]

20 hours ago, SomewhereInTime said:

Uh you realize half of FBS is group of 5 schools right?  Like if you're UW and you're middle of the pack in recruiting rankings year after year that means your ceiling will probably be around 7 or 8 wins.  If that's acceptable to you at a big school like UW then you are probably really angry about the firing.

Your point on the bolded statement?  I was just using your numbers on the amount of FBS programs that didn’t have at least one 3 star recruit.  Even then, over half of the B1G is in the same boat as Wisconsin.  And honestly, if they were to get a verbal from a 3 star recruit tomorrow, would you really feel better?

Here is Wisconsin’s recruiting rankings and average player rating for the last decade based on 247 composite:

2012: 65 (85.43)

2013: 40 (84.64)

2014: 32 (84.78)

2015: 41 (85.50)

2016: 35 (84.96)

2017: 39 (85.82)

2018: 46 (86.48)

2019: 29 (87.86)

2020: 26 (87.83)

2021: 16 (89.04)

2022: 44 (87.66)

So, they have their highest ranked classes currently on the roster along with their highest average player ratings. 2022 wasn’t ranked very high because they had only 15 commits but they were quality players according to the recruiting services.

Of course I’d prefer the Badgers to have a better record the last few years and going forward but to say their ceiling as a program is 7-8 wins if they recruit middle of the pack is absurd. They’ve pretty much recruited at that level the past 10 years and have had, excluding the COVID year, only two 7 and two 8 win seasons in the past 20 years and ten double digit win seasons in that same timeframe.
 

[SomewhereInTime]

2 hours ago, areacodes said:

Your point on the bolded statement?  I was just using your numbers on the amount of FBS programs that didn’t have at least one 3 star recruit.  Even then, over half of the B1G is in the same boat as Wisconsin.  And honestly, if they were to get a verbal from a 3 star recruit tomorrow, would you really feel better?

Here is Wisconsin’s recruiting rankings and average player rating for the last decade based on 247 composite:

2012: 65 (85.43)

2013: 40 (84.64)

2014: 32 (84.78)

2015: 41 (85.50)

2016: 35 (84.96)

2017: 39 (85.82)

2018: 46 (86.48)

2019: 29 (87.86)

2020: 26 (87.83)

2021: 16 (89.04)

2022: 44 (87.66)

So, they have their highest ranked classes currently on the roster along with their highest average player ratings. 2022 wasn’t ranked very high because they had only 15 commits but they were quality players according to the recruiting services.

Of course I’d prefer the Badgers to have a better record the last few years and going forward but to say their ceiling as a program is 7-8 wins if they recruit middle of the pack is absurd. They’ve pretty much recruited at that level the past 10 years and have had, excluding the COVID year, only two 7 and two 8 win seasons in the past 20 years and ten double digit win seasons in that same timeframe.
 

Just because they've overperformed their recruiting class rankings in past years, doesn't mean they will in future years.  If things were going as planned they probably wouldn't have fired their coach in part due to receuiting failures.

[Brewcrew82]

5 hours ago, SomewhereInTime said:

Their best class is already on campus.  Before that they had a good one on paper in '19 but the two highest ranked recruits of that class turned into huge busts in brown and mertz.  '22 class and onward is very bleak.

Graham Mertz hasn't played like a "huge bust" this year. Yeah he had rough games against Ohio State and Illinois, but literally the entire team did in those games. His efficiency numbers are all way up, and he's 2nd in FBS in "big-time throws", per PFF. 

[SomewhereInTime]

1 hour ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Graham Mertz hasn't played like a "huge bust" this year. Yeah he had rough games against Ohio State and Illinois, but literally the entire team did in those games. His efficiency numbers are all way up, and he's 2nd in FBS in "big-time throws", per PFF. 

Lol!  I must've forgot about the signature performances against new mexico st and northwestern.  Those games really mean a lot.

[SomewhereInTime]

In other football news, Logan Brown just entered the transfer portal.  Honestly about two years too late.  Four years on campus, three starts.

[Brewcrew82]

13 minutes ago, SomewhereInTime said:

Lol!  I must've forgot about the signature performances against new mexico st and northwestern.  Those games really mean a lot.

You can laugh out loud all you want. But he's not playing like a "huge bust" right now, and the numbers back that up. We will have to see how he does against tougher competition, but even by the eye test he's playing a lot better than the last two years. 

[Brewcrew82]

5 minutes ago, SomewhereInTime said:

In other football news, Logan Brown just entered the transfer portal.  Honestly about two years too late.  Four years on campus, three starts.

Whatever. The O-line has been embarrassing for Wisconsin standards, so it's time for the cream of the crop to rise, up and for everyone else to go. Hopefully Nolan Rucci can break the trend of 5 star OL busts dating back to Josh Oglesby. 

[SomewhereInTime]

8 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Whatever. The O-line has been embarrassing for Wisconsin standards, so it's time for the cream of the crop to rise, up and for everyone else to go. Hopefully Nolan Rucci can break the trend of 5 star OL busts dating back to Josh Oglesby. 

Hey good for him, if he's not gonna be given a starting spot on a line this young and this bad, he should definitely look for different opportunities.  Time to leave the sinking ship.

[Brewcrew82]

3 minutes ago, SomewhereInTime said:

Hey good for him, if he's not gonna be given a starting spot on a line this young and this bad, he should definitely look for different opportunities.  Time to leave the sinking ship.

He was given every opportunity to earn a starting spot in camp and even during the season, and he failed. His pass-blocking is atrocious. 

[areacodes]

2 hours ago, SomewhereInTime said:

Just because they've overperformed their recruiting class rankings in past years, doesn't mean they will in future years.  If things were going as planned they probably wouldn't have fired their coach in part due to receuiting failures.

The Badgers have been outperforming their recruiting rankings for 20+ years.  I’d say it is more likely than not that the can continue to do so.  It is no guarantee but their track records is pretty good.

Leonhard has been sought after by many high profile programs and I feel pretty good about his ability going forward.  We’ll see if he can keep the Badgers where they are or improve their lot.

[areacodes]

9 minutes ago, SomewhereInTime said:

Hey good for him, if he's not gonna be given a starting spot on a line this young and this bad, he should definitely look for different opportunities.  Time to leave the sinking ship.

They aren’t just going to give somebody a starting spot.  If he hasn’t earned a spot on a line “this young and this bad” he probably should move on to a level that fits him better.  We’ll see where he ends up and if he does anything at his next program.
 

Not saying you can give your input either way, but are you even a UW fan?

[SomewhereInTime]

4 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

He was given every opportunity to earn a starting spot in camp and even during the season, and he failed. His pass-blocking is atrocious. 

Oh i understand he's been bad.  He's not transferring up.  He's been in the program four years, if you cant secure a starting spot by then and get benched in favor of underclassmen its time to go.

[SomewhereInTime]

2 minutes ago, areacodes said:

They aren’t just going to give somebody a starting spot.  If he hasn’t earned a spot on a line “this young and this bad” he probably should move on to a level that fits him better.  We’ll see where he ends up and if he does anything at his next program.
 

Not saying you can give your input either way, but are you even a UW fan?

I played for a lesser UW school in the UW system and actively follow them and watch the games even living out here in pacific time zone.  I dont like how they've been run and am glad they fired the coach.

[Jim French Stepstool]

2 hours ago, SomewhereInTime said:

Just because they've overperformed their recruiting class rankings in past years, doesn't mean they will in future years.  If things were going as planned they probably wouldn't have fired their coach in part due to receuiting failures.

Overperforming their recruiting class rankings is, has been, and probably always will be the backbone of a program like theirs, which is built on culture fit & player development over recruiting "stars". It isn't the crap shoot the above quote makes it sound like. The number of recruits they've had who have walked on & not only contributed, but played professionally is as strong an indictment as you can get of the way they do things.

When someone as highly rated as Brown performs as he has, his opening up a scholarship is a plus. Barring a rash of injuries he probably won't be missed.

[MrTPlush]

9 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

You can laugh out loud all you want. But he's not playing like a "huge bust" right now, and the numbers back that up. We will have to see how he does against tougher competition, but even by the eye test he's playing a lot better than the last two years. 

Graham Mertz only performing in games against garbage opponents that a 50 year old drunk fan could lead them to a win is completely meaningless. 

He could at least be decent against the Purdue/Minn/Iowa of the world to be acceptable. Certainly still below the hype, but at least match the performance/success of the noodle arms before you the last decade. Which, he will get the chance to do.

[MrTPlush]

Logan Brown is transferring....but he was actually dismissed due to an internal incident first. The rumor is he struck a teammate at practice.

[Brewcrew82]

4 hours ago, MrTPlush said:

Graham Mertz only performing in games against garbage opponents that a 50 year old drunk fan could lead them to a win is completely meaningless. 

He could at least be decent against the Purdue/Minn/Iowa of the world to be acceptable. Certainly still below the hype, but at least match the performance/success of the noodle arms before you the last decade. Which, he will get the chance to do.

Northwestern is not good this year (to say the least), but that place has been a house of horrors for Wisconsin football, and Graham Mertz went ahead and threw for 300 yards and 5 TDs. Either way, if you've watched the games this year, you'll know that Mertz has generally been one of the few bright spots and far from the cause of this team's struggles, 

[Jim French Stepstool]

9 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Northwestern is not good this year (to say the least), but that place has been a house of horrors for Wisconsin football, and Graham Mertz went ahead and threw for 300 yards and 5 TDs. Either way, if you've watched the games this year, you'll know that Mertz has generally been one of the few bright spots and far from the cause of this team's struggles, 

Despite his terrific performance at Evanston, you still have to say the jury is to a certain extent still out on Mertz. But to put so much attention on him as opposed to the rest of the team (as some seem to want to do) is very, very flawed thinking. They have 3 losses this season. Mertz is way down the list on reasons why they lost in each of those games.

As to Brown, if he actually struck someone you can safely assume it didn't happen during a pass-protection drill.

[Brewcrew82]

Just now, Jim French Stepstool said:

Despite his terrific performance at Evanston, you still have to say the jury is to a certain extent still out on Mertz. But to put so much attention on him as opposed to the rest of the team (as some seem to want to do) is very, very flawed thinking. They have 3 losses this season. Mertz is way down the list on reasons why they lost in each of those games.

As to Brown, if he actually struck someone you can safely assume it didn't happen during a pass-protection drill.

Exactly. By no means am I saying that Mertz is an established star QB. I'm just pushing back on the notion that he's a "huge bust" like Brown. Let's see how he finishes out the year, as it will tell us to what extent PC's play-calling was holding him back. Last week in Evanston was a good start, and his numbers on the season are still up there with some of the better QB's in the BIG (the non-Stroud division). 

[SomewhereInTime]

2 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Northwestern is not good this year (to say the least), but that place has been a house of horrors for Wisconsin football, and Graham Mertz went ahead and threw for 300 yards and 5 TDs. Either way, if you've watched the games this year, you'll know that Mertz has generally been one of the few bright spots and far from the cause of this team's struggles, 

I mean Ive watched the games and dont think that at all.  I understand he put up good numbers vs northwestern and new mexico st but the offese struggled big time vs illinois and washington st (and obviously vs ohio)

[SomewhereInTime]

1 hour ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

Despite his terrific performance at Evanston, you still have to say the jury is to a certain extent still out on Mertz. But to put so much attention on him as opposed to the rest of the team (as some seem to want to do) is very, very flawed thinking. They have 3 losses this season. Mertz is way down the list on reasons why they lost in each of those games.

As to Brown, if he actually struck someone you can safely assume it didn't happen during a pass-protection drill.

Hey Im not here to give any extra or undeserved credit to others on the team.  That defensive line was man handled vs illinois.  The nee middle linebackers have been disappointing.  The offensive line is talented but pretty young across the board and there has certainly been struggles.  TE is a negative in part due to injury.  The transfer filled secondary cant cover anyone.  They might make it to a bowl game this year if things fall right.

[Brewcrew82]

2 minutes ago, SomewhereInTime said:

I mean Ive watched the games and dont think that at all.  I understand he put up good numbers vs northwestern and new mexico st but the offese struggled big time vs illinois and washington st (and obviously vs ohio)

He performed well against Washington St. and Illinois St., too. All of our losses have been mostly due to getting manhandled in the trenches. That should never happen at Wisconsin, and is probably the central reason (in a long list of reasons) why Chryst was canned. As @Jim French Stepstoolsaid, Mertz is far down the list of this team's issues. 

[Jim French Stepstool]

3 hours ago, SomewhereInTime said:

Hey Im not here to give any extra or undeserved credit to others on the team.  That defensive line was man handled vs illinois.  The nee middle linebackers have been disappointing.  The offensive line is talented but pretty young across the board and there has certainly been struggles.  TE is a negative in part due to injury.  The transfer filled secondary cant cover anyone.  They might make it to a bowl game this year if things fall right.

All legitimate points except IMO the secondary.  I've seen more plays on balls than I've seen in many past years, and plays in which they aren't in bad position but don't seem to finish. They looked vastly overmatched vs Ohio State (join the club). Vs Illinois there were some grey area PI calls, and other plays in which they were in position but out fought. Not a glowing indictment but hardly "can't cover anyone". 

The safeties have been able to make plays & are largely in position, and that's with arguably the best one (Wohler) out since week one.

And they're down to their 3rd, 4th, & fifth TEs. And the 3rd guy is primarily a blocker. To me that's more than "in part" due to injury.

Agree about both lines. The ILB play was bolstered greatly last week by Grass & Chaney who were both 2nd team guys. So that's an area to watch.

[SomewhereInTime]

3 hours ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

All legitimate points except IMO the secondary.  I've seen more plays on balls than I've seen in many past years, and plays in which they aren't in bad position but don't seem to finish. They looked vastly overmatched vs Ohio State (join the club). Vs Illinois there were some grey area PI calls, and other plays in which they were in position but out fought. Not a glowing indictment but hardly "can't cover anyone". 

The safeties have been able to make plays & are largely in position, and that's with arguably the best one (Wohler) out since week one.

And they're down to their 3rd, 4th, & fifth TEs. And the 3rd guy is primarily a blocker. To me that's more than "in part" due to injury.

Agree about both lines. The ILB play was bolstered greatly last week by Grass & Chaney who were both 2nd team guys. So that's an area to watch.

They could be good for a year or two coming up.  I would think the offensive line will get better with the young talent they have right now getting more experience, add in a transfer QB and the offense could maybe move the football.

[Oxy]

On 10/10/2022 at 8:18 AM, MrTPlush said:

Maybe the Badgers are getting wiser and will dump Greg Gard soon too

LOL. GrEAt idea! Fire the reigning B1G champion/coach of the year...