Wisconsin Football 2022- The Jim Leonhard Show ends, the Luke Fickell era begins

[Jim French Stepstool]

18 hours ago, JosephC said:

I really thought Bracey's 32+ kickoff return average from last year would at least have gotten him on the field for some more kick return opportunities this year...but I guess not.

Speaking of special teams, can we go to Dean Engram's punt returns?  Granted, he isn't a complete disaster back there like he was last year, but his 4.0 yard per return average...is he really the best guy Wisconsin has for that job?  Last year it took them forever to finally put his butt on the bench and stick Jack Dunn out there and it was completely obvious that Dunn was far better at it.

Markus Allen, another guy they were really talking up in bowl practices last year and fall practice this year.  Can't really fault the coaching staff on this one because the guy has been seeing the field.  Sure seems like he was given an opportunity.  Looks like the other schools that recruited him were Pittsburgh, Michigan State and Georgia Tech.  Have to wonder if any of them will want him now since it looks like he is no better than #4 on a Wisconsin depth chart after 1.5 years in the program.  Last year's version of this, Devin Chandler, wound up at Virginia but is not on their two-deep.  Have to wonder if he is injured, couldn't find anything about that after doing a quick internet search?  But have to wonder if most of these guys are better staying put where at least they can accumulate experience in the system which may help them see the field more in the future.   

They protect injury info like it's the Hope Diamond, but there are rumblings that Bracey wasn't healthy. If he was available, then I agree it's curious why he didn't emerge as a return guy, at least after Mellusi went down & Guerendo became the #2 tailback.

I think Engram is the primary PR because of all the candidates they feel he's the most sure-handed. That's why Dunn did it previously.

This may not have played into it but Allen had some off-the-field stuff that fortunately didn't blow up into something bigger. I say "may not have played into it" because it wasn't particularly recent. As you said he received snaps earlier this season. People passed him up. That used to mean work harder or leave. It's 2022, so leave sounds a lot better.

Your last sentence is spot-on. But again, it's 2022 so it's much easier to talk yourself into believing the problem exists everywhere else but in the mirror.

[LouisEly]

Bryce Young vs:

ULM: 215.1
VAN: 195.5
USU: 181.7
ARK: 175.6
TEN: 153.5
TEX: 123.6

Caleb Williams vs:

STAN: 229.1
RICE: 211.4
UTAH: 175.0
ASU: 173.3
FRES: 149.9
WSU: 128.9 (Mertz - 134.4)
ORST: 95.6

Everybody pads their stats against lower competition.

[MrTPlush]

13 hours ago, LouisEly said:

Bryce Young vs:

ULM: 215.1
VAN: 195.5
USU: 181.7
ARK: 175.6
TEN: 153.5
TEX: 123.6

Caleb Williams vs:

STAN: 229.1
RICE: 211.4
UTAH: 175.0
ASU: 173.3
FRES: 149.9
WSU: 128.9 (Mertz - 134.4)
ORST: 95.6

Everybody pads their stats against lower competition.

I mean, yah, I said that. 

I am not sure what this comparison to Young/Williams really shows. That they are both unworldly better? I think we all know that. Wouldn't the sensible thing to do is comp him to other Big Ten QBs. Isn't the entire argument going on that Mertz is one of the worst QBs in the Big Ten and some think he is perfectly fine.

You can spin these stats to make Mertz not seem that bad because of what Williams/Young do...but anyone who has watched either of those guys for a quarter would know Mertz is an absolute dumpster fire compared to them in a game. 

I would actually love to see Mertz transfer and see what he does under a different coach in a different system. 

[areacodes]

On 10/18/2022 at 3:35 AM, SomewhereInTime said:

Yeah how much of that is due to northwestern, illinois st, and new mexico st?  Lets see where he ranks by the end of the year.

I thought there were 150+ college QB’s who are better than Mertz though?

[areacodes]

2 hours ago, MrTPlush said:

I mean, yah, I said that. 

I am not sure what this comparison to Young/Williams really shows. That they are both unworldly better? I think we all know that. Wouldn't the sensible thing to do is comp him to other Big Ten QBs. Isn't the entire argument going on that Mertz is one of the worst QBs in the Big Ten and some think he is perfectly fine.

You can spin these stats to make Mertz not seem that bad because of what Williams/Young do...but anyone who has watched either of those guys for a quarter would know Mertz is an absolute dumpster fire compared to them in a game. 

I would actually love to see Mertz transfer and see what he does under a different coach in a different system. 

How do those stats show that Young/Williams are unworldly better? Or that Mertz is a absolute dumpster fire compared to them?

If that is truly the case, Young/Williams should have significantly better passer ratings with all of the better talent they have on offense.

[Jim French Stepstool]

48 minutes ago, areacodes said:

How do those stats show that Young/Williams are unworldly better? Or that Mertz is a absolute dumpster fire compared to them?

If that is truly the case, Young/Williams should have significantly better passer ratings with all of the better talent they have on offense.

Yep. The surrounding talent & how it performs, and that includes keeping mistakes to a minimum, has always been a huge part of the puzzle in Madison, still is, & probably always will be. A bigger part than at other places?

Yes.

At the same time, Mertz needs to be more consistent. If anyone here said he's "perfectly fine", I missed it.

[MrTPlush]

1 hour ago, areacodes said:

How do those stats show that Young/Williams are unworldly better? Or that Mertz is a absolute dumpster fire compared to them?

If that is truly the case, Young/Williams should have significantly better passer ratings with all of the better talent they have on offense.

I mean....they do. Put Metz next to those two, if you don't see the vast difference I can't help you.

 

Have you ever watched them? Because if you have you know Mertz isn't on the same planet as them. 

[areacodes]

10 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

I mean....they do. Put Metz next to those two, if you don't see the vast difference I can't help you.

 

Have you ever watched them? Because if you have you know Mertz isn't on the same planet as them. 

Put Mertz on those teams with the talent they have available and I’m sure his numbers would look better. As is, his QB rating isn’t that far off - which shows that they aren’t unworldly better or that Mertz is a dumpster fire compared to them.

Look, Mertz isn’t a world beater and the Badgers need to improve across the board. But to call him a bust or trash or a dumpster fire like you and others have done isn’t accurate no matter how many times you guys repeat that.

Feel free to show us how the stats provided prove your point though (because you haven’t yet).

 

[MrTPlush]

1 hour ago, areacodes said:

Put Mertz on those teams with the talent they have available and I’m sure his numbers would look better. As is, his QB rating isn’t that far off - which shows that they aren’t unworldly better or that Mertz is a dumpster fire compared to them.

Look, Mertz isn’t a world beater and the Badgers need to improve across the board. But to call him a bust or trash or a dumpster fire like you and others have done isn’t accurate no matter how many times you guys repeat that.

Feel free to show us how the stats provided prove your point though (because you haven’t yet).

 

Would his stats be better? He may get better players, but the expectations are wildly different. He would actually be expected to put the team on his back with his arm, actually throw it deep, and be the focal point of the offense. 

I am not really convinced he would actually be better. Graham Mertz isn't out there putting up his passer rating throwing 40 times a game. On many occasions he doesn't even throw it 20 times. If Mertz had to use his arm that much and throw deeper passes, I don't know his stats are actually improving.

[LouisEly]

Both USC and Wisconsin have played Washington State at home this season.

Caleb Williams: 15-29, 52% completion, 188 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, 128.9 passer rating

Graham Mertz: 18-31, 58% completion, 227 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT, 134.4 passer rating

USC had four 4-star WRs transfer in prior to the season, including the 2021 Biletnikoff Award winner Jordan Addison, and signed a fifth as an incoming true freshman.

[LouisEly]

Big Ten QB ratings:

1. C.J. Stroud - 207.6 (#1 in the country)
2. J.J. McCarthy - 170.6 (#12 in the country)
3. Graham Mertz - 157.7 (#26 in the country)
4. T. Tagovailoa - 157.6 (#27 in the country)
5. Tanner Morgan - 156.4 (#36)
6. Casey Thompson - 148.2 (#51)
7. Tommy DeVito - 145.8 (#56)
8. Aidan O'Connell - 140.5 (#65)
9. Sean Clifford - 137.4 (#70)
10. Payton Thorne - 136.6 (#72)

That's all of them in the top 100.

[Jim French Stepstool]

1 hour ago, LouisEly said:

Big Ten QB ratings:

1. C.J. Stroud - 207.6 (#1 in the country)
2. J.J. McCarthy - 170.6 (#12 in the country)
3. Graham Mertz - 157.7 (#26 in the country)
4. T. Tagovailoa - 157.6 (#27 in the country)
5. Tanner Morgan - 156.4 (#36)
6. Casey Thompson - 148.2 (#51)
7. Tommy DeVito - 145.8 (#56)
8. Aidan O'Connell - 140.5 (#65)
9. Sean Clifford - 137.4 (#70)
10. Payton Thorne - 136.6 (#72)

That's all of them in the top 100.

This is my first time this season looking at the QB ratings. I'm surprised DeVito isn't higher.

[LouisEly]

The Iowa game dropped him - 86.6.

[SomewhereInTime]

10 hours ago, areacodes said:

I thought there were 150+ college QB’s who are better than Mertz though?

There definitely is.

[areacodes]

9 hours ago, SomewhereInTime said:

There definitely is.

Lol. Now you are being absurd.

He is 27th in the country in QB rating and 3rd in the B1G. All while playing on a team that you say is terrible with no talent.

Prove it. Show me 150+ QB’s who are better and why. I’m sure I’ll be waiting a long time…

[areacodes]

17 hours ago, MrTPlush said:

Would his stats be better? He may get better players, but the expectations are wildly different. He would actually be expected to put the team on his back with his arm, actually throw it deep, and be the focal point of the offense. 

I am not really convinced he would actually be better. Graham Mertz isn't out there putting up his passer rating throwing 40 times a game. On many occasions he doesn't even throw it 20 times. If Mertz had to use his arm that much and throw deeper passes, I don't know his stats are actually improving.

Logically, it would track that with better players around him, he’d have the chance to put up better numbers. 

I do like how you ignored the part about how the stats don’t prove that he’s a “dumpster fire” and that the other QB’s are “unworldly better” than him. Your words, by the way, so I figured you would back them up with more than “I mean… they do” - guess not.

[MrTPlush]

26 minutes ago, areacodes said:

Logically, it would track that with better players around him, he’d have the chance to put up better numbers. 

I do like how you ignored the part about how the stats don’t prove that he’s a “dumpster fire” and that the other QB’s are “unworldly better” than him. Your words, by the way, so I figured you would back them up with more than “I mean… they do” - guess not.

Because you quoted me incorrectly, that is why.

Graham Mertz is a dumpster fire compared to those QBs and they are unworldly better. That is my opinion, yes. You can decide to just base your entire decision on stats that can't just be compared like apples to apples if you so choose. That is your opinion. I also have two eyeballs I choose when comparing them and have watched them all play. Graham Mertz isn't anywhere near those guys. Not sure if you have watched the other guys, but to me, it is incredibly obvious they aren't on the same planet.

If Graham Mertz is similar like the stats show, I should be expecting him to enter his name into the draft and go Top 5, right? 2nd round? 3rd round? 4th round? 5th round? Maybe? What is your explanation why those guys are about to be Top 5 picks and Mertz would be lucky to have his name called at all? It isn't like Mertz doesn't have an NFL profile. He has the height, strong arm, pro-style type gameplay. 

[LouisEly]

4 hours ago, MrTPlush said:

I also have two eyeballs I choose when comparing them and have watched them all play.

Full games in-person, or just highlights on ESPN?  Everyone looks good in highlights, and ESPN/FOX/etc. financially benefit by pumping up the guys at the big programs to be better than they really are because they can charge more for advertising.

This board has operated for literally decades on showing stats to back up your opinions.  Show some stats.

[areacodes]

4 hours ago, MrTPlush said:

Because you quoted me incorrectly, that is why.

Graham Mertz is a dumpster fire compared to those QBs and they are unworldly better. That is my opinion, yes. You can decide to just base your entire decision on stats that can't just be compared like apples to apples if you so choose. That is your opinion. I also have two eyeballs I choose when comparing them and have watched them all play. Graham Mertz isn't anywhere near those guys. Not sure if you have watched the other guys, but to me, it is incredibly obvious they aren't on the same planet.

If Graham Mertz is similar like the stats show, I should be expecting him to enter his name into the draft and go Top 5, right? 2nd round? 3rd round? 4th round? 5th round? Maybe? What is your explanation why those guys are about to be Top 5 picks and Mertz would be lucky to have his name called at all? It isn't like Mertz doesn't have an NFL profile. He has the height, strong arm, pro-style type gameplay. 

I’m sorry, I assumed that when I asked you how the stats supported your position and your response was “I mean… they do.” that you had more than just the eye ball test to fall back on. Wasn’t trying to misquote you.

I guess I have a different definition of dumpster fire than you where I wouldn’t characterize somebody as one when their stats aren’t significantly worse.  I don’t disagree that Young/Williams and other QB’s are better than Mertz or have better draft potential/higher upside - I do disagree with your stance that he is a dumpster fire.  However, you are entitled to your opinion

[SomewhereInTime]

18 hours ago, areacodes said:

Lol. Now you are being absurd.

He is 27th in the country in QB rating and 3rd in the B1G. All while playing on a team that you say is terrible with no talent.

Prove it. Show me 150+ QB’s who are better and why. I’m sure I’ll be waiting a long time…

Given the massive differences in talent, types of offenses run, schedule.  QB rating comparison doesn't mean much.

[Oxy]

Mertz has always been physically talented, and has always been beyond great in everything that is off the field..  Previous to this year he had shown nothing beyond his arm talent to believe that he is even a decent college QB on the field. However, that has all changed--except for a couple errant throws this year (namely the INT to MSUs DB on that out route last weekend).

His pocket presence this year is exponentially better than years past. He has mostly made the correct reads and put the ball where it should be--and occasionally has stepped up in the pocket, evaded the rush and found open receivers--even on 3rd and long.

Watch the games. There are couple of miscues where bad decisions and/or bad execution occurs, but there are for more instances where the situation looks bleak and GM at least makes on opportunity out of very little...which is the opposite of his MO the past coupla years.

[UpandIn]

39 minutes ago, Oxy said:

Mertz has always been physically talented, and has always been beyond great in everything that is off the field..  Previous to this year he had shown nothing beyond his arm talent to believe that he is even a decent college QB on the field. However, that has all changed--except for a couple errant throws this year (namely the INT to MSUs DB on that out route last weekend).

His pocket presence this year is exponentially better than years past. He has mostly made the correct reads and put the ball where it should be--and occasionally has stepped up in the pocket, evaded the rush and found open receivers--even on 3rd and long.

Watch the games. There are couple of miscues where bad decisions and/or bad execution occurs, but there are for more instances where the situation looks bleak and GM at least makes on opportunity out of very little...which is the opposite of his MO the past coupla years.

I would mostly agree. I'd argue that his internal clock seems inconsistent and some smaller things like that, but I'd say...in context, he's looked very talented and he's been pretty good this year.

I just...would LOVE to see him with an elite OL and a JT type back(I guess Allen is to be fair). But an OL that can just block people, pick up simple stunts. 

 

Royce Newman just cannot--...err...sorry, wrong Wisconsin Football team, but same complaints. They can't pick up stunts, blitzes. 

Graham Mertz could go on and have a poor man's Matt Ryan type career and I wouldn't be totally shocked. I just don't know how good he is and I don't think others do either. I don't think you can. If you have WRers who you could throw a hitch route to and they could take it 80, or a guy who could just BLOW guys away off the LOS like...say Bama did with Smith, Jeudy, Ruggs(just asking for one)...that could help him enough. But just a basically AJ Dillon style RB? That's not good enough with this OL and receiving core. 

I DO know there are not 150 QBs who are better than him. 

[areacodes]

8 hours ago, SomewhereInTime said:

Given the massive differences in talent, types of offenses run, schedule.  QB rating comparison doesn't mean much.

So, no - you aren’t able to back up the statement you made, and then doubled down on, that there are 150+ QB’s better than Mertz. In fact you said there are “easily” 150 QB’s who are better than him in college.

Making definitive statements like that and then hiding behind the lame statement above loses you any credibility you may have had on this topic. I’d say pick out a different way than QB rating to compare QB’s and show me 150+ that are easily better but I know you won’t. (Hint: that is because it isn’t possible)

[Jim French Stepstool]

5 hours ago, UpandIn said:

 

Graham Mertz could go on and have a poor man's Matt Ryan type career and I wouldn't be totally shocked. 

I guess it's possible. But the NFL would need to undergo a massive expansion first, to accommodate the other 150 QBs in college who are better than him.?

[SomewhereInTime]

8 hours ago, areacodes said:

So, no - you aren’t able to back up the statement you made, and then doubled down on, that there are 150+ QB’s better than Mertz. In fact you said there are “easily” 150 QB’s who are better than him in college.

Making definitive statements like that and then hiding behind the lame statement above loses you any credibility you may have had on this topic. I’d say pick out a different way than QB rating to compare QB’s and show me 150+ that are easily better but I know you won’t. (Hint: that is because it isn’t possible)

I take it back, 150 is too low, I think that number just went above 200.  I'll take all D2 QBs and easily all the WIAC QBs in D3 now too.

I cannot wait until Mertz announces his trip to the transfer portal after the season.