Wisconsin Football 2022- The Jim Leonhard Show ends, the Luke Fickell era begins

[UpandIn]

15 minutes ago, Samurai Bucky said:

To be honest with everybody, I was not aware of Leonard's plan by having a 2-4-5 defense.  I'm not saying it was the right choice (obviously), but I think he knew that Wisconsin could not go mano a mano with OSU.  So he tries to go with a scheme which, obviously didn't work.

So our reaction is to overreact.  Is Paul Chryst a good recruiter or a good coach?  I am not sure.  We can all talk about how he doesn't get the 5* recruits, but how many 5* recruits have the Badgers ever gotten?  Perhaps a handful?  Alvarez didn't get any 5* recruits, IIRC, but was able to develop the talent.  For all of Herbstreit's foibles about talking about OSU for 99.9% of the broadcast, he did mention that one thing Alvarez did was to develop players.

Compared to other programs, the Badgers have a lot of players in the NFL.  That means they are getting talent (not 112 NFL-ready players like some programs), and developing it.  I'm excited that Bobby Engram is the offensive coordinator.  I think the Badgers have one of the top, if not THE top defensive coordinator.  Wisconsin football has been based on limiting mistakes and pounding the ball.  Chryst going all in with Mertz seems to be one of the biggest keys to the lack of success.

Let's get off the ledge.  The Badgers can still win the West.  Call it a weak schedule if you want, but in the 70's and 80's, Wisconsin lost to D2 teams.  A win is a win.  If they finish 3rd or 4th in the West, I will be singing a different tune.

I'd again just...object to the idea he played a 2-4-5. 

It's the same thing that the Packers are playing when they run nickel. And they ran a 3-4 in run situations and they still didn't stop them. 
With regard to recruiting, PC has recruited pretty well. Not a lot of 5 star recruits, but some. Mostly guys who aren't quite playing yet. 

https://247sports.com/college/wisconsin/Sport/Football/AllTimeRecruits/

He's done as well as most and I think people just had these hopes that Mertz would be the guy to elevate the position and he wasn't as good as expected and the OL hasn't been as good as we expect it to be for several years. 

 

But I'm with you. I think they'll end up with a 10 win season. 

[LouisEly]

17 hours ago, UpandIn said:

Again...you keep pounding this drum and it just doesn't make any sense...and it's MOSTLY based on the premise that Herbig isn't as big as the 240 LB DEs they had playing in the 43...when their defenses weren't as good.

 

No, it's not mostly based on Herbig, it's based on having only two DL on the field.  You're misunderstanding what I'm saying.

Since Leonhard has become the DC, whenever they play against a 3-WR set - including every game against Ohio State - they play a 2-4-5.  Watch the film of every Ohio State game.  The point I'm making is that two DL cannot control the line of scrimmage against Ohio State.   

Since Leonhard has become the DC they have played OSU five times.  OSU's rushing totals in those five games:
9/24/22 - 43 carries, 258 yards
12/7/19 - 46 carries, 172 yards
10/26/19 - 50 carries, 264 yards
12/2/17 - 42 carries, 238 yards
10/15/16 - 45 carries, 185 yards

And those 2016/2017 teams had a lot of talent in the linebacker room.  Once they held them to less than four yards per carry, but still over 170 yards rushing.  In the game on Saturday, in the first half OSU's RBs had over 100 yards of rushing before contact. 

What I'm saying is to run a 3-3-5 instead.  Still have 5 DBs on the field to protect against the pass, so it should not affect pass defense.  Rodas Johnson or James Thompson can play DE with Goetz/Peterson as an on-ball OLB and Herbig at more of a WILL/off-ball blitzing LB.  That has to have a better chance of controlling the LOS.

When UW was more competitive with OSU they ran a 4-man front.  Yes, some of the DEs were 240-250 lbs (such as O'Brien Schofield), but some of the DEs were more like 6'5", 295 (JJ Watt).  My point is that the 2-4-5 that they were running out there didn't have enough size to hold the LOS against Ohio State.  It might work against most teams - which are smaller and less talented - but not Ohio State.  The teams that have been more competitive against Ohio State have been teams with 4-man fronts.

[MrTPlush]

Anyone want to try and guess the last time the Badgers beat a ranked opponent in the regular season with over 200 yards passing?

I had to look it up because I thought to myself, PC couldn't beat a good team if running the ball didn't work.

 

 

 

[UpandIn]

1 hour ago, MrTPlush said:

Anyone want to try and guess the last time the Badgers beat a ranked opponent in the regular season with over 200 yards passing?

I had to look it up because I thought to myself, PC couldn't beat a good team if running the ball didn't work.

 

 

 

I don't know...2017 seems like a pretty logical guess since there have been other years they've only played a couple and...if the answer was 2020, it hardly feels like you'd be asking this question. 

I don't know what Badger coach EVER consistently beat ANYONE if running the ball didn't work. Maybe the year we got a fluke transfer who went on to have a HOF NFL career?

I'd suspect the overwhelming majority of the time the Badgers beat ranked opponents...their running game works because we are Wisconsin and we produce large humans but not very fast ones(generally) and definitely not enough fast ones with the physical aptitude to play CB or WRer as well as or in the numbers as Ohio. So that alone...not helping. 

[MrTPlush]

3 hours ago, UpandIn said:

I don't know...2017 seems like a pretty logical guess since there have been other years they've only played a couple and...if the answer was 2020, it hardly feels like you'd be asking this question. 

I don't know what Badger coach EVER consistently beat ANYONE if running the ball didn't work. Maybe the year we got a fluke transfer who went on to have a HOF NFL career?

I'd suspect the overwhelming majority of the time the Badgers beat ranked opponents...their running game works because we are Wisconsin and we produce large humans but not very fast ones(generally) and definitely not enough fast ones with the physical aptitude to play CB or WRer as well as or in the numbers as Ohio. So that alone...not helping. 

I actually had to circle back because I forgot about Jack Coan and I remembered he was way better than some gave him credit for. He popped off for 280 against Minnesota in the last game of 2019. They actually had like 100 yards more passing thanks to a couple massive throws. However, the time before that was 2014. Joel Stave, also against Minnesota in the last game of the year. Maybe I am missing someone else, but think I covered all the QBs now. 

Just kind of shows the utter dependency on the run and being down late makes it very very hard for them to stage any kind of comeback or game winning drive if short on time. 

[UpandIn]

7 hours ago, MrTPlush said:

I actually had to circle back because I forgot about Jack Coan and I remembered he was way better than some gave him credit for. He popped off for 280 against Minnesota in the last game of 2019. They actually had like 100 yards more passing thanks to a couple massive throws. However, the time before that was 2014. Joel Stave, also against Minnesota in the last game of the year. Maybe I am missing someone else, but think I covered all the QBs now. 

Just kind of shows the utter dependency on the run and being down late makes it very very hard for them to stage any kind of comeback or game winning drive if short on time. 

You're missing the LSU game. That game(which I thought led of the '17 season, but didn't) popped into my head. 

Did you go back over the Andersen, BB or Alvarez era? 

I just don't think this is rare. The Badgers have always had to run the ball first. 

[Jim French Stepstool]

Personally I'd like to know the # of times in the last few decades the opponent needed to score late, and never got the ball back because we kept it from them by constantly moving the chains. It's a high number, and many of those folks were ranked.

I mean, plenty of teams that throw the ball a lot don't RUN for 200 yards vs ranked opponents. You do what you do well. I do think their passing attack will look better as the O-line gets sorted out & healthy. A big concern is losing Cundiff. They've developed a real comfort zone in recent years throwing to the TE & I just don't know what they'll get from Rucci & Eschenbach.

[adambr2]

This is unacceptable, and the product on the field reflects it. 

[nate82]

1 minute ago, adambr2 said:

This is unacceptable, and the product on the field reflects it. 

But the academic standards!!!!!!!

[yourout]

The fire PC bus just found a couple of new gears and a nitro button.

[MrTPlush]

Doubt he gets fired, but PC has got to be getting questionable even to the more faithful backers. People will point out 2019s Rose Bowl season, but that is literally the only time in the last half decade they were ranked at the end of the season. 

His first 3 years as coach feature 75% of his teams that ended the year ranked. Is that success largely due to the players other coaches brought in? Is he really not that great of a coach once the team becomes 100% his guys and the recruiting knows it?

It might be too soon to know…but this has got to be concerning to people. 

[PeaveyFury]

Widespread reports that Chryst has been fired.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Yup.  He gone.  It's on ESPN now.

[nate82]

Yes he is gone.

https://theathletic.com/3650405/2022/10/02/wisconsin-fires-paul-chryst/?

[PeaveyFury]

I’ll say I’m legitimately shocked. I think the guy has earned enough to coach out a lost season, even if you think it’s the right call, which it may be.

[DuWayne Steurer]

4 minutes ago, PeaveyFury said:

I’ll say I’m legitimately shocked. I think the guy has earned enough to coach out a lost season, even if you think it’s the right call, which it may be.

Makes me wonder if there was some behind the scenes things going on (nothing in particular, just..... whatever) that made it happen earlier. 

[Jim French Stepstool]

My overwhelming feeling was that he had a few key games coming up (after Ohio State) that would be more-or-less the measuring stick for this season, and maybe for his future. Yesterday was the first one, and they obviously failed miserably. 

The team has been built for a long time now, and rightfully so IMO, on front 7 strength defensively, and the O-line being the engine that runs the offense. It's been a long time since they've looked as overmatched in those areas as yesterday, and that includes OSU. I'm surprised but I'll roll with McIntosh if he thinks this is the time, especially when I think of who he most certainly consulted with before making the decision. Don't know how accurate this is but I've heard rumblings that he wasn't happy at all with the changes in CFB recently, if that's the case it may have affected his day-to-day work ethic & enthusiasm (I also wouldn't blame him, but that's another topic). So if that's the case, yeah, it's time.

I would however reject the criticism of his personality, the lifelessness in front of the mic, lack of "fire", etc. He has the same personality as when they've had successful teams. It makes it frustrating to listen to him after a loss, which I get. 

At the end of the day, his record here was solid but not over-the-top successful and IIRC his record as the HC at Pitt was maybe a little over .500. Maybe he's one of these guys who was better suited for a coordinator spot as opposed to running the whole show, but takes a HC job because, you know, it's what you're supposed to do when you have the chance. I'm sure that, as far as being the center of attention is concerned, he'd much prefer being surrounded by friends at the bar telling stories than surrounded by mics, cameras, and notepads.

I wish him all the best.

[HarryDoyle]

Was just going to post this. I truly am shocked but it was the right thing to do.

[Jim French Stepstool]

10 minutes ago, PeaveyFury said:

I’ll say I’m legitimately shocked. I think the guy has earned enough to coach out a lost season, even if you think it’s the right call, which it may be.

I was certain he was in no danger in 2022. Whoops.

I'm sure the administration feels that it shouldn't be a lost season, that this team has more in the tank, and this is the way to extract it. Stay tuned, I guess.

[yourout]

4 minutes ago, HarryDoyle said:

Was just going to post this. I truly am shocked but it was the right thing to do.

Same here....i really liked his hire but like Granato just not a good head coach.

[MadThinker88]

So Jim Leonard is the interim guy (completely understand someone had to be quickly installed), but does he have a real reach to the perm slot starting in  2023?   IF not him, who is a legit target for Wisconsin to become HC in 2023??

AS THE ADMITTED OUTSIDER, I fail to see who would want the gig.  Yes someone gets to be in the Big 10 as massive changes are underway in college football, but there are some legit MONSTERS in the conference any new coach would need to deal with on the field and on the recruiting trail.

Ohio State, incoming USC, Penn State & Meatchicken are obvious Monsters.

Bret B seems to be building up Illinois while Mel Tucker & PJ Flick have been building up MSU & Minnesota respectively.

Every 5 or 6 years Pat Fitzgerald seems to have Northwestern relevant for a couple of seasons.

Kirk F gets periodic turns in the sun with gaps going thru the deep valley.

I don't think Nebraska will ever get back to their former glory.

[jjgott]

I think with the transfer portal the way it is now you really can't let a coach finish out a season.  Realistically they'll need the new coach in place whether it be elevating Leonard or an outside hire as soon as possible.

[PeaveyFury]

3 minutes ago, MadThinker88 said:

So Jim Leonard is the interim guy (completely understand someone had to be quickly installed), but does he have a real reach to the perm slot starting in  2023?   IF not him, who is a legit target for Wisconsin to become HC in 2023??

AS THE ADMITTED OUTSIDER, I fail to see who would want the gig.  Yes someone gets to be in the Big 10 as massive changes are underway in college football, but there are some legit MONSTERS in the conference any new coach would need to deal with on the field and on the recruiting trail.

Ohio State, incoming USC, Penn State & Meatchicken are obvious Monsters.

Bret B seems to be building up Illinois while Mel Tucker & PJ Flick have been building up MSU & Minnesota respectively.

Every 5 or 6 years Pat Fitzgerald seems to have Northwestern relevant for a couple of seasons.

Kirk F gets periodic turns in the sun with gaps going thru the deep valley.

I don't think Nebraska will ever get back to their former glory.

For all of Fleck's supposed glory, he has a sub .500 record in his sixth season after replacing a guy with a 9-4 season. Ferentz seems as likely to end up like Chryst after this year than to bring Iowa any short-term success.

I'd think Leonhard is the favorite for the job, but they'll inquire on Lance Leipold due to his ties to the state, and they'd be crazy not to at least call Meyer even though he'll decline. Fans will want a Meyer/Gruden-type name, and we'll end up with Leonhard or Leipold and all will be fine.

[jjgott]

4 minutes ago, MadThinker88 said:

So Jim Leonard is the interim guy (completely understand someone had to be quickly installed), but does he have a real reach to the perm slot starting in  2023?   IF not him, who is a legit target for Wisconsin to become HC in 2023??

AS THE ADMITTED OUTSIDER, I fail to see who would want the gig.  Yes someone gets to be in the Big 10 as massive changes are underway in college football, but there are some legit MONSTERS in the conference any new coach would need to deal with on the field and on the recruiting trail.

The same reason coaches want to take jobs at Florida, Ole Miss, Tennessee, etc. 

 

You're coaching in one of the three conferences where a CFP birth is likely to come from.  And Wisconsin is in a division where they should be one of the favorites year in and year out with maybe USC now added to the mix.  I think Wisconsin can be a very attractive coaching destination once they figure out how to recruit QBs and WRs again.

[patrickgpe]

I agree with those that were surprised. He has earned the right to have a bad season. I think this has more to do with the prospects of Leonhard getting a job after the season and wanting to retain him rather than Chryst’s performance for the first 5 games this year. Now Macintosh can evaluate him and figure out how he wants to blow the whole thing up or keep on with Jim Leonhard (hoping for the latter). Last time they went against the Wisconsin way it was a disaster.