Game Thread (7/03/2022): Brewers (Woodruff) at Pirates (Thompson) - 12:35 PM CDT

[BruisedCrew]

No insurance runs today. It’s all up to the bullpen. 

[edfunderburk]

38 minutes ago, mtsportsfan said:

As you can see I didn't specify you . I also wanted him in the lead off spot  because of his pitch selection and speed , as did many of the posters on this site and other sites . I also love to see him do well .  when he does well so do the brewers .

Yelich is remarkable on the bases … so fun to watch him run 

[Brewcrew82]

Get that man to LA!

[BruisedCrew]

Pretty sad showing from the offense today. 
 

Hopefully it will be enough. 

[Brewcrew82]

1 minute ago, BruisedCrew said:

Pretty sad showing from the offense today. 
 

Hopefully it will be enough. 

Can't score 5+ runs every game. 

[Brewcrew82]

Pirates are back to being pesky.

[Brewcrew82]

Should have just made the throw. 

[BruisedCrew]

Bonehead play by Narvaez. The ball was right there and he had plenty of time to make a simple throw. 

[Brewcrew82]

Phewwwww

[BruisedCrew]

19 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Can't score 5+ runs every game. 

Thanks for the info. I never realized that. 

[Brewcrew82]

Just now, BruisedCrew said:

Thanks for the info. I never realized that. 

Welcome. 

[Brewcrew82]

Obviously, we're all kind of disappointed by the split in Pittsburgh. However, it's still a 4-2 week. Furthermore, these Pirates aren't as bad as they've been the last couple years. Reynolds, Hayes, Cruz, and Bednar are all really good players. 

[edfunderburk]

2 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Obviously, we're all kind of disappointed by the split in Pittsburgh. However, it's still a 4-2 week. Furthermore, these Pirates aren't as bad as they've been the last couple years. Reynolds, Hayes, Cruz, and Bednar are all really good players. 

Yes, they have some good young players … but they are 32-47 overall playing in a terrible division

They are improved, but they are still a bad team 

[Brewcrew82]

1 minute ago, edfunderburk said:

Yes, they have some good young players … but they are 32-47 overall playing in a terrible division

They are improved, but they are still a bad team 

I meant they're more competitive due to the presence of those young players. Case in point, they took 5/6 from the Dodgers. And 8-2 against any team is still really good. 

[mtsportsfan]

Just now, edfunderburk said:

Yes, they have some good young players … but they are 32-47 overall playing in a terrible division

They are improved, but they are still a bad team 

Maybe , but if I was a Pitt fan I would be encouraged by some of these young guys , instead of selling off players (Reynolds) build around them , they could be a solid team with a few more pieces !

[sveumrules]

Halfway through the season, average-ish offense (below average among contenders even), Burnes & a whole bunch of underperformance/injury in the rotation.

Box, Williams, Hader have been lights out, Milner smoking & mirroring his way to zeroes. Other half of the bullpen has been a revolving door outside of a middling Suter.

Yet somehow the Brewers sit in first place (+25 DRS, 8th and +4.4 FRM, 5th have helped on the margins) with something like the 5th to 8th best World Series odds per BPro/538/FanGraphs as the trade deadline looms. 

Pretty remarkable stuff. The other 20+ teams must really suck.

[willie key]

20 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Halfway through the season, average-ish offense (below average among contenders even), Burnes & a whole bunch of underperformance/injury in the rotation.

Box, Williams, Hader have been lights out, Milner smoking & mirroring his way to zeroes. Other half of the bullpen has been a revolving door outside of a middling Suter.

Yet somehow the Brewers sit in first place (+25 DRS, 8th and +4.4 FRM, 5th have helped on the margins) with something like the 5th to 8th best World Series odds per BPro/538/FanGraphs as the trade deadline looms. 

Pretty remarkable stuff. The other 20+ teams must really suck.

A lot of them actually do.     The problem is this team could easily fall out of the third wild card. (I can’t believe I’m saying third wild card.   What happened to baseball).   It’s so bunched up.    We need those other guys in the rotation to stop with the downward trend

 

if lauer and or houser/Ashby start to perform again I think we walk this division. 

[Jim French Stepstool]

Big picture folks. It's a 4-2 road trip. Anyone disappointed just pretend we split in Tampa Bay & won 3 of 4 this weekend.

[sveumrules]

16 minutes ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

Big picture folks. It's a 4-2 road trip. Anyone disappointed just pretend we split in Tampa Bay & won 3 of 4 this weekend.

Yeah, I find looking at “stands” more instructive than individual series. Brewers have an 8-2-1 stand record so far this year…

Apr 7-13: 3-3 road (T)

Apr 14-20: 5-2 home (W)

Apr 22-28: 5-2 road* (W)

Apr29-May5: 5-1 home (W)

May 6-15: 4-5 road (L)

May 16-22: 4-2 home (W)

May23-Jun1: 6-5 road (W)

June 2-9: 1-6 home (L)

June 10-19: 5-4 road (W)

June 20-26: 4-3 home (W)

Jun28-Jul3: 4-2 road (W)

[BruisedCrew]

But when a stand lost is 1-6 and the 4 stands won that surround it total 19-14, that nets out to 20-20. 

So, trying to present winning 4 out of 5 stands as something positive is IMHO an unconvincing spin on these 40 games. 
 

We could make the point that 20-20 in these 40 games is pretty decent considering the injuries (which are far from over). But that has little to do with how the wins and losses are distributed among stands and series.

At some point fans are looking for the Brewers to make some more progress after basically treading water for the last two months. I have been looking at these 10 games against the Pirates and Cubs as an opportunity to pick up a few games on .500. Maybe it will still happen. 
 

 

[sveumrules]

40 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

But when a stand lost is 1-6 and the 4 stands won that surround it total 19-14, that nets out to 20-20. 

So, trying to present winning 4 out of 5 stands as something positive is IMHO an unconvincing spin on these 40 games. 
 

We could make the point that 20-20 in these 40 games is pretty decent considering the injuries (which are far from over). But that has little to do with how the wins and losses are distributed among stands and series.

At some point fans are looking for the Brewers to make some more progress after basically treading water for the last two months. I have been looking at these 10 games against the Pirates and Cubs as an opportunity to pick up a few games on .500. Maybe it will still happen. 
 

 

So what you’re saying is over their worst half of the first half they still managed to play .500 baseball while dealing with injuries & going through the toughest part of their schedule with 29 of those 40 against contenders.

That means over the other half of the first half they went 26-15, a 100+ win pace & .634 W%.

I think their true talent level likely lies somewhere between those two extremes, but if going 20-20 over a 40 game stretch is the worst thing that happens all season, odds are their W% after 162 will end up higher than their current .568 mark.

Looking to the 2nd half it looks like their toughest stretch will be 23 contenders over 36 games from 7/12 to 8/24. They then have 12 of 39 against contenders to close the season.

[Jim French Stepstool]

4 hours ago, sveumrules said:

Yeah, I find looking at “stands” more instructive than individual series. Brewers have an 8-2-1 stand record so far this year…

Apr 7-13: 3-3 road (T)

Apr 14-20: 5-2 home (W)

Apr 22-28: 5-2 road* (W)

Apr29-May5: 5-1 home (W)

May 6-15: 4-5 road (L)

May 16-22: 4-2 home (W)

May23-Jun1: 6-5 road (W)

June 2-9: 1-6 home (L)

June 10-19: 5-4 road (W)

June 20-26: 4-3 home (W)

Jun28-Jul3: 4-2 road (W)

I never break down a schedule in that manner. Had I thought of it, I never would've guessed 8-2-1. Interesting.

[BruisedCrew]

No, that’s not what I’m saying at all.

I’m just saying that 20-20 is 20-20, whether you get there by winning 4 stands and losing 1 or winning 1 and losing 4. 

Maybe the trend of series or stands can reveal something of useful. The last 3 stands at least show that the Brewers have emerged from the slump of losing 8 in a row and 12 of 14  

For me , the biggest questions for the second half of the season are (1) how well the Brewers pitching  will hold up and (2) whether the offense will be strong enough to back up a pitching staff that is not the one we expected at the start of the season.

I’m not sure how well the projection sites can capture the impact of injuries when the return of players is uncertain, especially when they are potentially high impact players like deGrom, Tatis, and Harper. There’s  no way they can anticipate future injuries or player moves made before the deadline.

This will be an interesting month both on and off the field. August 2 will be a good checkpoint of how things stand