Brewers - Arizona Fall League

[Jim Goulart]

 

[UpandIn]

32 minutes ago, Mass Haas said:

 

If the Brewers run it back next year with largely the same core, I think this is going to be the key. Can the Brewers get back to having a dominant BP(without having to pay a one inning closer 17M). 

Uribe, Ecerg are two guys who are certainly not locks, but look like they're both coming along really well and COULD be those guys. 

[Jim Goulart]

Friday 10/28:

Glendale rolls 11-1 in a seven-inning game to move back to .500 at 10-10, but loses Tyler Black to an apparent hand injury.

Box / Game Log

RHP Luis Contreras made his 5th appearance of the season, throwing a scoreless 5th with two strikeouts (one HBP).

Cleanup hitter 1B Zavier Warren rolls along, 2-for-4, run scored, four RBI. Warren drove in two runs on a first inning line drive single, and then two more on a line drive triple in the 5th. Through 16 games, he sports a .988 OPS.

Je'Von Ward was the DH, seeing action in his 9th game. Ward singled and walked in four plate appearances, scoring and driving in a run.

Playing center field in this one, Tyler Black flied out in his first trip to the plate. Leading off the 4th inning, Black reached on a line drive double to center, but then was immediately lifted for a pinch-runner. 

Here is the video archive of this game.

Go to the 58:40 mark, you will see Black line the first pitch of his at-bat to left-center and then hustle-dive hands first into second base. After a second or two on his knees including a slap of the ground, Black pops up and moves away from the base towards the dugout shaking his hand. Black had no doubt he was immediately going to leave the game, didn't wait for a trainer. The opposing pitcher, wary of the pitch clock, was set up for the next at-bat, not realizing Black had pulled himself from the proceedings. Hopefully won't end Black's Arizona season, but that didn't look so great.

Next game is Saturday afternoon.

***

Batting Statistics: Zavier Warren, Je'Von Ward, Jeferson Quero, Tyler Black

Pitching Statistics: Russell Smith, Abner Uribe, Ryan Middendorf, Luis Contreras; yet to pitch, RHP Logan Henderson

[Jim Goulart]

1 hour ago, Mass Haas said:

Here is the video archive of this game.

Go to the 58:40 mark, you will see Black line the first pitch of his at-bat to left-center and then hustle-dive hands first into second base. After a second or two on his knees including a slap of the ground, Black pops up and moves away from the base towards the dugout shaking his hand. Black had no doubt he was immediately going to leave the game, didn't wait for a trainer. The opposing pitcher, wary of the pitch clock, was set up for the next at-bat, not realizing Black had pulled himself from the proceedings. Hopefully won't end Black's Arizona season, but that didn't look so great.

Sigh, well, see you in the spring Tyler, and get all these in-game injuries out of the way before you reach "The Show":
 

 

[wiguy94]

Black with a broken scapula on a diving play in the OF and a broken thumb on a slide at 2B in 2022. Rough year for him.

[Jim Goulart]

 

[SF70]

34 minutes ago, Mass Haas said:

 

Blacks knocking the rust off his bat, Uribe’s command improvement, and Warren’s offensive resurgence the second-half of the minors season, and now in the AFL, has put a cherry on top of this teams 2022 farm system development. 

Outside of injury (Zamora & Rodriguez) the only disappointments development-wise out of our top 20 or so prospects that come to my mind are Small, R. Smith, and Valerio.

In my opinion, this teams farm system is now as deep as I’ve ever seen it. Not just stacked with talented positional prospects, which it has to rival any teams positional prospects, but also now, thanks to the last draft-class and development by a handful of 19-21 year old arms, getting deeper with arms as well, even if most are at the lower levels.

I’m expecting this farm to get safely inside the top 10 from most sites, and that’s before the possible Burnes trade.

[Brewcrew82]

11 hours ago, UpandIn said:

Top 10 prospect?

The combo of him and Courio is just going to be a whole lot of fun, watching them develop and hopefully arrive within a few months of each other(which given Quero's advanced defense isn't far fetched). 

This farm system really has it all...with the possible(definite) exception of any true, blue blood corner IF prospects. They've got young power arms with enormous upside, two Latin American players who could very easily end up in the top 15 by this time next year, if not higher. 

 

As was pointed out in another thread, when looking back at what Stearns accomplished during his stewardship of the Brewers organization, the systems he's left in place and the Latin American scouting and developmental program just cannot be understated. The Brewers had VERY little Latin American representation prior to DS. Now we've got a growing academy and several prospects making a lot of noise at key positions. 

I don't know what to make of the guy saying he's not "gaga" over Quero, but he's "fringe Top 10". That just doesn't make sense to me, because to place Quero as a fringe top 10 prospect at this point, you'd definitely have to be "gaga" over him. I've got him in the top 100 for sure due to his tremendous defense and his emergence with the bat, but he'd have to take another leap on offense to approach top 10 status. 

I wouldn't quite say this farm system "has it all". Besides the lack of "true, blue blood corner IF prospects", we are lacking on impact arms at the upper minors right now. I like Gasser, but he's a fringe top 100 prospect and more of a middle of the rotation starter. Misiorowski has world's of potential, but he's really far away with his command right now. And, after that, the cupboard becomes pretty bare thanks to Small crapping the bed this season. 

So, we're still pretty well short of the Dodgers, Orioles, Rays, etc. 

[wiguy94]

5 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I don't know what to make of the guy saying he's not "gaga" over Quero, but he's "fringe Top 10". That just doesn't make sense to me, because to place Quero as a fringe top 10 prospect at this point, you'd definitely have to be "gaga" over him. I've got him in the top 100 for sure due to his tremendous defense and his emergence with the bat, but he'd have to take another leap on offense to approach top 10 status. 

I wouldn't quite say this farm system "has it all". Besides the lack of "true, blue blood corner IF prospects", we are lacking on impact arms at the upper minors right now. I like Gasser, but he's a fringe top 100 prospect and more of a middle of the rotation starter. Misiorowski has world's of potential, but he's really far away with his command right now. And, after that, the cupboard becomes pretty bare thanks to Small crapping the bed this season. 

So, we're still pretty well short of the Dodgers, Orioles, Rays, etc. 

Pretty sure they were talking about their C prospect rankings not overall.

[Brewcrew82]

16 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Pretty sure they were talking about their C prospect rankings not overall.

In that case, his statement makes much more sense, and I would agree. 

[Jim Goulart]

Saturday 10/29:

Glendale loses 10-3, in seven innings.

Box / Game Log

RHP Abner Uribe entered in the top of the 7th, his team down 7-3, and allowed three unearned runs, so while he lowered his ERA it wasn't pretty as the game log will show under "all plays". Three Desert Dog errors in the frame, including another by Uribe - plenty of PFP ("Pitchers' Fielding Practice") coming next spring training for Abner.

1B Zavier Warren was 0-for-2 with two walks, and his line is now .352/.507/.463 (.970 OPS) seventeen games into his fall season.

Good to see catcher Jeferson Quero back, shaking off the effects of his mid-game flu-like symptoms earlier this week. Quero also walked twice, striking out on an official 0-for-1 day. Baserunners were 2-for-2 against Quero, but we'll totally blame the Glendale pitchers. Quero also committed his third error of the fall, this one on a pickoff throw.

Je'Von Ward is going to pick up at-bats in the absence of Tyler Black's thumb fracture. Playing left field, Ward was 0-for-2 with a walk. In all, Glendale batters drew ten walks but managed only two base hits.

Currently the video archive of this game sits at the "Live Stream" page - Mesa at Glendale. Some prior games discussed in this thread can be found on the site's archive page, where this game will be shifted to at some point.

Next game is Tuesday afternoon.

***

Batting Statistics: Zavier Warren, Je'Von Ward, Jeferson Quero, Tyler Black

Pitching Statistics: Russell Smith, Abner Uribe, Ryan Middendorf, Luis Contreras; yet to pitch, RHP Logan Henderson

[UpandIn]

On 10/29/2022 at 1:06 PM, SF70 said:

In my opinion, this teams farm system is now as deep as I’ve ever seen it. Not just stacked with talented positional prospects, which it has to rival any teams positional prospects, but also now, thanks to the last draft-class and development by a handful of 19-21 year old arms, getting deeper with arms as well, even if most are at the lower levels.

I’m expecting this farm to get safely inside the top 10 from most sites, and that’s before the possible Burnes trade.

Yeah, I said the same as well. This is a well rounded farm system that Stearns will leave Arnold with. And while we'll graduate a few players next year, I could easily see 3 prospects in particular being on the top 50 next year(Chourio, Quero and Misiorowski).

The talent of the farm system has me kinda split on which way the Brewers should go. Make the trades now, pile up the prospects, add a couple more high end arms and maybe shore up some corner IF power, or run it back. 

If you dealt Burnes, Woodruff and Adames(which, barring an extension, I expect they will do with at least one year left)...this would very likely be the top farm system. 

[UpandIn]

On 10/29/2022 at 2:44 PM, Brewcrew82 said:

I don't know what to make of the guy saying he's not "gaga" over Quero, but he's "fringe Top 10". That just doesn't make sense to me, because to place Quero as a fringe top 10 prospect at this point, you'd definitely have to be "gaga" over him. I've got him in the top 100 for sure due to his tremendous defense and his emergence with the bat, but he'd have to take another leap on offense to approach top 10 status. 

I wouldn't quite say this farm system "has it all". Besides the lack of "true, blue blood corner IF prospects", we are lacking on impact arms at the upper minors right now. I like Gasser, but he's a fringe top 100 prospect and more of a middle of the rotation starter. Misiorowski has world's of potential, but he's really far away with his command right now. And, after that, the cupboard becomes pretty bare thanks to Small crapping the bed this season. 

So, we're still pretty well short of the Dodgers, Orioles, Rays, etc. 

Well..."Gaga" isn't real descriptive to me. Maybe it means they don't believe he's going to be a Julio Rodriguez type prospect or a future MVP type prospect. But a catcher with elite defensive skills who put up a .313/.329/.530 line with an .859 OPS at HiA at age 19...I think there's a pretty viable argument for him to be a fringe top 10 prospect. 

He's on a pretty similar trajectory as Francisco Alvarez, the clear cut #1 prospect though with less power. 

Refer to part of Alvarez' bio on MLB Pipeline;

Quote

All that said, Álvarez’s profile does get a boost from his ability to play behind the plate. New York officials acknowledge he has been working diligently to become even an average defensive backstop, hoping his framing and blocking can at least come close to his bat. 

So Quero doesn't have the power(though his offense is very good)...but his defense is elite. 

Maybe they just think he's going to be a competent MLB catcher who hits 12-15 HRs, puts up a .286/.342/.439 line while playing elite defense. That may not be the flashiest thing, but it's pretty damn impressive. Put that up at the MLB level with his defense and you're looking at 4-5 WAR player at a position that's exceptionally thin across the league right now. 

I'd also say this farm system DOES have it all. Middle IFers end up becoming corner IFers plenty, Uribe looks like he could be a HL reliever next year, Gasser is in AAA, former 1st round pick Ethan Small didn't just disappear after struggling a bit in his first cup of coffee. And I don't think the cupboard is bare after that. Stiven Cruz, Carlos Rodriguez...etc...etc...

They have players with power, who play great defense, speed, MLB ready players who hit from the Left side, but the Right side as well. And the group we've got coming behind them...ranging from Avina to Quero to Chourio...not to forget the likes of Mendez, Guilarte(a prospect some are particularly high on)...and on and on. 

And there's several players we picked this year who have similar profiles coming out to a Burnes(4th) or Woodruff in Woessner, Wagoner, guys with power arms who struggled.  

Clearly "Having it all," is a figure of speech. It means it has MLB talent at every position, not that every position has elite, surefire, top 50 prospects across the board. That'd clearly be unreasonable. It also doesn't mean it's the #1 system in baseball.

 

I'll just defer to someone else's wording;

Quote

In my opinion, this teams farm system is now as deep as I’ve ever seen it. Not just stacked with talented positional prospects, which it has to rival any teams positional prospects, but also now, thanks to the last draft-class and development by a handful of 19-21 year old arms, getting deeper with arms as well, even if most are at the lower levels.

 

[SF70]

1 hour ago, UpandIn said:

Yeah, I said the same as well. This is a well rounded farm system that Stearns will leave Arnold with. And while we'll graduate a few players next year, I could easily see 3 prospects in particular being on the top 50 next year(Chourio, Quero and Misiorowski).

The talent of the farm system has me kinda split on which way the Brewers should go. Make the trades now, pile up the prospects, add a couple more high end arms and maybe shore up some corner IF power, or run it back. 

If you dealt Burnes, Woodruff and Adames(which, barring an extension, I expect they will do with at least one year left)...this would very likely be the top farm system. 

I mentioned this in another thread, but I don’t want to trade-off all of our high-end assets this offseason. Burnes would be it, because the timing is right that, imo, he can go and we can still contend this year, we just need to replace his innings with a veteran starter like Quintana.

We are a year behind Cleveland as far as young talent at the big-league level AND farm system depth. They contended with rookies and youngins all over the field, with strong veteran pitching. So can we.

Our only real weakness in our organization is a big-one — big-armed starting pitching prospects at the upper-levels of the farm. This can be solved with trades of Burnes this offseason and Lauer next offseason and a Woodruff extension or trade, next offseason.

I’m confident in the continued pipeline of amateur talent procurement systems this team has, so once the big-arm upper-level prospect deficit is fixed, this franchise should be set to contend for a decade plus.

[Brewcrew82]

11 hours ago, UpandIn said:

Well..."Gaga" isn't real descriptive to me. Maybe it means they don't believe he's going to be a Julio Rodriguez type prospect or a future MVP type prospect. But a catcher with elite defensive skills who put up a .313/.329/.530 line with an .859 OPS at HiA at age 19...I think there's a pretty viable argument for him to be a fringe top 10 prospect. 

He's on a pretty similar trajectory as Francisco Alvarez, the clear cut #1 prospect though with less power. 

Refer to part of Alvarez' bio on MLB Pipeline;

So Quero doesn't have the power(though his offense is very good)...but his defense is elite. 

Maybe they just think he's going to be a competent MLB catcher who hits 12-15 HRs, puts up a .286/.342/.439 line while playing elite defense. That may not be the flashiest thing, but it's pretty damn impressive. Put that up at the MLB level with his defense and you're looking at 4-5 WAR player at a position that's exceptionally thin across the league right now. 

I'd also say this farm system DOES have it all. Middle IFers end up becoming corner IFers plenty, Uribe looks like he could be a HL reliever next year, Gasser is in AAA, former 1st round pick Ethan Small didn't just disappear after struggling a bit in his first cup of coffee. And I don't think the cupboard is bare after that. Stiven Cruz, Carlos Rodriguez...etc...etc...

They have players with power, who play great defense, speed, MLB ready players who hit from the Left side, but the Right side as well. And the group we've got coming behind them...ranging from Avina to Quero to Chourio...not to forget the likes of Mendez, Guilarte(a prospect some are particularly high on)...and on and on. 

And there's several players we picked this year who have similar profiles coming out to a Burnes(4th) or Woodruff in Woessner, Wagoner, guys with power arms who struggled.  

Clearly "Having it all," is a figure of speech. It means it has MLB talent at every position, not that every position has elite, surefire, top 50 prospects across the board. That'd clearly be unreasonable. It also doesn't mean it's the #1 system in baseball.

 

I'll just defer to someone else's wording;

 

As @wiguy94 pointed out, they're referring to Quero being a top 10 catcher prospect, not a top 10 prospect in the game. That's a lot more reasonable take, and I agree with it. You yourself explained why Alvarez is the #1 prospect. He possesses massive power for a catcher IN ADDITION to being a good fielder. Quero just doesn't have that right now, though he is improving with the bat. So, more of a top 100-type than a top 10 guy. 

[ARobsBrewCrew]

It has been awesome reading everyone’s perspectives on the current state of the farm system, but I’d like to point out one thing that I have caught onto that many people may overlook.  Obviously, Misiorowski is probably the most exciting arm to dream on, however, many in the organization believe there is another young hurler that has the highest potential.  Of course, there are high hopes for CRod, Stiven Cruz, Robert Gasser, etc., but the “man” is Logan Henderson according to many coaches in the organization.  Outstanding professional debut outside of, really, one appearance.  Very excited to see him get stretched out more and show what he’s capable of in 2023.

[wiguy94]

46 minutes ago, ARobsBrewCrew said:

It has been awesome reading everyone’s perspectives on the current state of the farm system, but I’d like to point out one thing that I have caught onto that many people may overlook.  Obviously, Misiorowski is probably the most exciting arm to dream on, however, many in the organization believe there is another young hurler that has the highest potential.  Of course, there are high hopes for CRod, Stiven Cruz, Robert Gasser, etc., but the “man” is Logan Henderson according to many coaches in the organization.  Outstanding professional debut outside of, really, one appearance.  Very excited to see him get stretched out more and show what he’s capable of in 2023.

I’m very high on Henderson as well. His recorded spin rates are elite. There’s a lot of upside there. 

[Joseph Zarr]

1 hour ago, ARobsBrewCrew said:

It has been awesome reading everyone’s perspectives on the current state of the farm system, but I’d like to point out one thing that I have caught onto that many people may overlook.  Obviously, Misiorowski is probably the most exciting arm to dream on, however, many in the organization believe there is another young hurler that has the highest potential.  Of course, there are high hopes for CRod, Stiven Cruz, Robert Gasser, etc., but the “man” is Logan Henderson according to many coaches in the organization.  Outstanding professional debut outside of, really, one appearance.  Very excited to see him get stretched out more and show what he’s capable of in 2023.

I can get behind this sentiment. All the intriguing qualities of a standout starting pitcher are there. I love the fastball - it is a classic 'sneaks up on you' laser (hello spin rate). I love the improvements I saw in the breaking ball and off-speed stuff in the short time I watched him pitch. 

BUT, I would say above and beyond all this raw material to work with what absolutely stands out more than anything with Henderson on the hill is his competitive fire. The young man absolutely has that 'it'. I can't describe it in any detail but if you've played competitive sports at high levels it is a thing. Logan Henderson has it. He is angry on the mound in all the right ways. I'm super excited to see how 2023 develops.

Thanks for the post @ARobsBrewCrew

[Brewcrew82]

Interested to see how Henderson's velocity on his fastball evolves as he progresses through the minors. If he starts consistently throwing in the mid to upper 90s, we may really have something. Wouldn't be the first fourth round pitcher we've had success in developing (*cough, Corbin Burnes, *cough). 

[nate82]

Quero should already be in the top 10 for catchers he may not be the #1 catcher but he is definitely in the top 10 for all MiLB catchers.  Offensively he is not there yet but defensively he could step in and play in MLB today.  Quero is very close offensively to Harry Ford who MLB has ranked as the 7th best catching prospect.  If Quero starts off fast in the first half next year he should be in the 50-75 range in prospect rankings.  What is holding him back in the prospect rankings is his offense once that comes around he will take off in the rankings.  

[UpandIn]

10 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

As @wiguy94 pointed out, they're referring to Quero being a top 10 catcher prospect, not a top 10 prospect in the game. That's a lot more reasonable take, and I agree with it. You yourself explained why Alvarez is the #1 prospect. He possesses massive power for a catcher IN ADDITION to being a good fielder. Quero just doesn't have that right now, though he is improving with the bat. So, more of a top 100-type than a top 10 guy. 

Man...you really took exception to that comment I made where I said I wouldn't be shocked if Quero ended up the best player from that Appleton team this year?

I didn't hear him say anything about Catching prospects, I heard him say he was a fringe top 10 prospects. Wiguy94 didn't say that, he said they were "pretty sure." 

Second, I didn't compare Alvarez directly with Quero, I compared the trajectory they were on. At the same age, they didn't know if Alvarez was going to stick at catcher. 

Now, that said, from the consensus #1 overall prospect in baseball...who I simply said Quero had followed a similar trajectory;

Quote

 New York officials acknowledge he has been working diligently to become even an average defensive backstop, hoping his framing and blocking can at least come close to his bat. 

HOPING he can become "even an average defensive backstop." You're overstating his defensive ability, the most important aspect of the game for a catcher. 

Either way, Quero has been one of the most impressive and youngest players at the Arizona Fall League and I think he's an elite prospect. If he ends up in the top ~25 this year or not, I think he could easily end up there. It's exceedingly rare to find refined, polished catching prospects who did what he did at age 19 in HiA...or LoA.

 

[UpandIn]

7 hours ago, Joseph Zarr said:

I can get behind this sentiment. All the intriguing qualities of a standout starting pitcher are there. I love the fastball - it is a classic 'sneaks up on you' laser (hello spin rate). I love the improvements I saw in the breaking ball and off-speed stuff in the short time I watched him pitch. 

BUT, I would say above and beyond all this raw material to work with what absolutely stands out more than anything with Henderson on the hill is his competitive fire. The young man absolutely has that 'it'. I can't describe it in any detail but if you've played competitive sports at high levels it is a thing. Logan Henderson has it. He is angry on the mound in all the right ways. I'm super excited to see how 2023 develops.

Thanks for the post @ARobsBrewCrew

Ben Simmons would like to speak with you and see if you can elaborate further on that!

I don't know much about Henderson as I didn't get to see him pitch. Just from the scouting reports and what I've read on him, it seems like his future may be as a high leverage reliever, no? That competitive demeanor comes in handy there. I mean, it comes in handy everywhere, but something more attributed with a reliever than a starting pitcher who has to maintain more of an even keel. 

Maybe I'm placing too much emphasis on the 5'11 and the 88-92 MPH FB that touches 95. Seems like a guy who's stuff plays up in shorter stints. 

[Brewcrew82]

39 minutes ago, UpandIn said:

Man...you really took exception to that comment I made where I said I wouldn't be shocked if Quero ended up the best player from that Appleton team this year?

I didn't hear him say anything about Catching prospects, I heard him say he was a fringe top 10 prospects. Wiguy94 didn't say that, he said they were "pretty sure." 

Second, I didn't compare Alvarez directly with Quero, I compared the trajectory they were on. At the same age, they didn't know if Alvarez was going to stick at catcher. 

Now, that said, from the consensus #1 overall prospect in baseball...who I simply said Quero had followed a similar trajectory;

HOPING he can become "even an average defensive backstop." You're overstating his defensive ability, the most important aspect of the game for a catcher. 

Either way, Quero has been one of the most impressive and youngest players at the Arizona Fall League and I think he's an elite prospect. If he ends up in the top ~25 this year or not, I think he could easily end up there. It's exceedingly rare to find refined, polished catching prospects who did what he did at age 19 in HiA...or LoA.

 

Honestly, I had forgotten about your previous comment about Quero. I disagreed with it, but that's your opinion and you're entitled to it. Nothing in my above statement was intended to be directed at it. 

Anyways, I did some follow-up research, and that video is indeed strictly about the top 10 catching prospects. Which means that they think Quero is a top 10 catching prospect, not a top 10 prospect in the game. 

I think you're trying to make me out to be a Quero "hater", which I most certainly am not. I have said on numerous occasions that I believe him to be a top 100 prospect in the game already. His defense is incredible for someone that young. And I do think that, if he builds on his strong finish at the plate, he could absolutely find himself within the top 50/25 of all MLB prospects by midseason next year. He's just not there yet, as his high-A numbers only occurred over 20 games. All of the other catching prospects in the top 10 or close to the top 10 (Cartaya, Moreno, Alvarez) have well over a full season's worth of elite offensive production under their belt.

In the meantime, I hope his name starts to show up on top 100 lists this offseason, as I think he's definitely earned it. 

[ARobsBrewCrew]

21 minutes ago, UpandIn said:

Ben Simmons would like to speak with you and see if you can elaborate further on that!

I don't know much about Henderson as I didn't get to see him pitch. Just from the scouting reports and what I've read on him, it seems like his future may be as a high leverage reliever, no? That competitive demeanor comes in handy there. I mean, it comes in handy everywhere, but something more attributed with a reliever than a starting pitcher who has to maintain more of an even keel. 

Maybe I'm placing too much emphasis on the 5'11 and the 88-92 MPH FB that touches 95. Seems like a guy who's stuff plays up in shorter stints. 

I don’t want to say that I wholly disagree with you, but I wholly disagree with you.  If anything, his repertoire points to more value as a starter and that his stuff can be more effective throughout a start rather than in short stints.  While I would still disagree, if you were making the same comments about Misiorowski, I could see where you are coming from.  Typically, if you want the makings of a high-leverage reliever, you would seek a fastball that reaches (or at least threatens) triple-digits.  Obviously, that’s not always the case but I digress.  Henderson has the stuff, the repertoire, and the demeanor to be a bulldog starting pitcher.  There are really no signs to suggest otherwise at this point.

[Jim Goulart]

Podcast: Underrated Arizona Fall League Prospects - Abner Uribe (37:10 minute mark)

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